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Feb 16

Evaluating Binary Decision Biases in Large Language Models: Implications for Fair Agent-Based Financial Simulations

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 20, 2025

Can Prompt Difficulty be Online Predicted for Accelerating RL Finetuning of Reasoning Models?

Recent advances have witnessed the effectiveness of reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). The optimization process often requires numerous iterations to achieve satisfactory performance, resulting in high computational costs due to the need for frequent prompt evaluations under intensive LLM interactions and repeated policy updates. Appropriate online prompt selection methods reduce iteration steps by prioritizing informative prompts during training, while the pipeline's reliance on exhaustive prompt evaluation and subset selection for optimization still incurs substantial computational overhead due to frequent LLM inference calls. Distinguished from these direct evaluate-then-select schemes, this work investigates iterative approximate evaluation for arbitrary prompts and introduces Model Predictive Prompt Selection (MoPPS), a Bayesian risk-predictive framework that online estimates prompt difficulty without requiring costly LLM interactions. Technically, MoPPS models each prompt's success rate as a latent variable, performs streaming Bayesian inference, and employs posterior sampling in a constructed multi-armed bandit machine, enabling sample efficient and adaptive prompt selection. Extensive experiments across mathematics, planning, and vision-based geometry tasks show that MoPPS reliably predicts prompt difficulty and accelerates training with significantly reduced LLM rollouts.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 6, 2025

dParallel: Learnable Parallel Decoding for dLLMs

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) have recently drawn considerable attention within the research community as a promising alternative to autoregressive generation, offering parallel token prediction and lower inference latency. Yet, their parallel decoding potential remains largely underexplored, as existing open-source models still require nearly token-length decoding steps to ensure performance. To address this, we introduce dParallel, a simple and effective method that unlocks the inherent parallelism of dLLMs for fast sampling. We identify that the key bottleneck to parallel decoding arises from the sequential certainty convergence for masked tokens. Building on this insight, we introduce the core of our approach: certainty-forcing distillation, a novel training strategy that distills the model to follow its original sampling trajectories while enforcing it to achieve high certainty on masked tokens more rapidly and in parallel. Extensive experiments across various benchmarks demonstrate that our method can dramatically reduce the number of decoding steps while maintaining performance. When applied to the LLaDA-8B-Instruct model, dParallel reduces decoding steps from 256 to 30 on GSM8K, achieving an 8.5x speedup without performance degradation. On the MBPP benchmark, it cuts decoding steps from 256 to 24, resulting in a 10.5x speedup while maintaining accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/czg1225/dParallel

Program Synthesis with Large Language Models

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

  • 11 authors
·
Aug 15, 2021

Magic 1-For-1: Generating One Minute Video Clips within One Minute

In this technical report, we present Magic 1-For-1 (Magic141), an efficient video generation model with optimized memory consumption and inference latency. The key idea is simple: factorize the text-to-video generation task into two separate easier tasks for diffusion step distillation, namely text-to-image generation and image-to-video generation. We verify that with the same optimization algorithm, the image-to-video task is indeed easier to converge over the text-to-video task. We also explore a bag of optimization tricks to reduce the computational cost of training the image-to-video (I2V) models from three aspects: 1) model convergence speedup by using a multi-modal prior condition injection; 2) inference latency speed up by applying an adversarial step distillation, and 3) inference memory cost optimization with parameter sparsification. With those techniques, we are able to generate 5-second video clips within 3 seconds. By applying a test time sliding window, we are able to generate a minute-long video within one minute with significantly improved visual quality and motion dynamics, spending less than 1 second for generating 1 second video clips on average. We conduct a series of preliminary explorations to find out the optimal tradeoff between computational cost and video quality during diffusion step distillation and hope this could be a good foundation model for open-source explorations. The code and the model weights are available at https://github.com/DA-Group-PKU/Magic-1-For-1.

  • 10 authors
·
Feb 11, 2025 4

One-Shot is Enough: Consolidating Multi-Turn Attacks into Efficient Single-Turn Prompts for LLMs

Despite extensive safety enhancements in large language models (LLMs), multi-turn "jailbreak" conversations crafted by skilled human adversaries can still breach even the most sophisticated guardrails. However, these multi-turn attacks demand considerable manual effort, limiting their scalability. In this work, we introduce a novel approach called Multi-turn-to-Single-turn (M2S) that systematically converts multi-turn jailbreak prompts into single-turn attacks. Specifically, we propose three conversion strategies - Hyphenize, Numberize, and Pythonize - each preserving sequential context yet packaging it in a single query. Our experiments on the Multi-turn Human Jailbreak (MHJ) dataset show that M2S often increases or maintains high Attack Success Rates (ASRs) compared to original multi-turn conversations. Notably, using a StrongREJECT-based evaluation of harmfulness, M2S achieves up to 95.9% ASR on Mistral-7B and outperforms original multi-turn prompts by as much as 17.5% in absolute improvement on GPT-4o. Further analysis reveals that certain adversarial tactics, when consolidated into a single prompt, exploit structural formatting cues to evade standard policy checks. These findings underscore that single-turn attacks - despite being simpler and cheaper to conduct - can be just as potent, if not more, than their multi-turn counterparts. Our findings underscore the urgent need to reevaluate and reinforce LLM safety strategies, given how adversarial queries can be compacted into a single prompt while still retaining sufficient complexity to bypass existing safety measures.

AIM-Intelligence AIM Intelligence
·
Mar 6, 2025

Multi-student Diffusion Distillation for Better One-step Generators

Diffusion models achieve high-quality sample generation at the cost of a lengthy multistep inference procedure. To overcome this, diffusion distillation techniques produce student generators capable of matching or surpassing the teacher in a single step. However, the student model's inference speed is limited by the size of the teacher architecture, preventing real-time generation for computationally heavy applications. In this work, we introduce Multi-Student Distillation (MSD), a framework to distill a conditional teacher diffusion model into multiple single-step generators. Each student generator is responsible for a subset of the conditioning data, thereby obtaining higher generation quality for the same capacity. MSD trains multiple distilled students, allowing smaller sizes and, therefore, faster inference. Also, MSD offers a lightweight quality boost over single-student distillation with the same architecture. We demonstrate MSD is effective by training multiple same-sized or smaller students on single-step distillation using distribution matching and adversarial distillation techniques. With smaller students, MSD gets competitive results with faster inference for single-step generation. Using 4 same-sized students, MSD significantly outperforms single-student baseline counterparts and achieves remarkable FID scores for one-step image generation: 1.20 on ImageNet-64x64 and 8.20 on zero-shot COCO2014.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 30, 2024