future news, these prices will tend to follow what mathematicians call a “random walk with a trend.” The

“random walk” part means that, on any given day, stock prices are just as likely to rise as to fall. “With a trend”

means that over time, the upward steps tend to be larger than the downward steps, so stocks do gradually

climb.

If stocks follow a random walk, then not even financial professionals will be able to choose those that will beat

the average consistently. While some investment advisers are better than average in any given year, and some

even succeed for a number of years in a row, the majority of financial investors do not outguess the market. If
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