"United States bear market of 2007–09 The US bear market of 2007–2009 was a 17-month bear market that lasted from October 9th 2007 to March 9th 2009, during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. The S&P 500 lost approximately 50% of its value, but the duration of this bear market was just below average due to extraordinary interventions by governments and central banks to prop up the stock market. The bear market was confirmed in June 2008 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had fallen 20% from its October 11, 2007 high. This followed the United States bull market of"
"percentage bullish vs. bearish indicates more risk. On January 16, 2018, Peter Boockvar said that the Investors Intelligence had the highest bull bear spread since 1986. Boockvar said that there was an extraordinary level of overboughtness. Major turns in the Conference Board’s Present Situation Index tend to precede corresponding turns in the unemployment rate—particularly at business cycle peaks (that is, going into recessions). Major upturns in the index also tend to foreshadow cyclical peaks in the unemployment rate, which often occur well after the end of a recession. Another useful feature of the index that can be gleaned from the"
"Market sentiment Market sentiment (also investor attention) is the general prevailing attitude of investors as to anticipated price development in a market. This attitude is the accumulation of a variety of fundamental and technical factors, including price history, economic reports, seasonal factors, and national and world events. If investors expect upward price movement in the stock market, the sentiment is said to be bullish. On the contrary, if the market sentiment is bearish, most investors expect downward price movement. Market participants who maintain a static sentiment, regardless of market conditions, are described as ""permabulls"" and ""permabears"" respectively. Market sentiment is"
"Advisors Sentiment The Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey reports the attitudes of U.S. advisors. A large difference between the percentage bullish vs. bearish indicates more risk. On January 16, 2018, Peter Boockvar said that the Investors Intelligence had the highest bull bear spread since 1986. Boockvar said that there was an extraordinary level of overboughtness. Yardeni Research, Inc. posts data about the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey inculding the Percentage Bulls & Bears. Advisors Sentiment survey is a field of market sentiment. Advisors Sentiment was devised by Abe Cohen of Chartcraft in 1963 and is still operated by Chartcraft, now under their"
"of themselves. Advisors Sentiment The Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey reports the attitudes of U.S. advisors. A large difference between the percentage bullish vs. bearish indicates more risk. On January 16, 2018, Peter Boockvar said that the Investors Intelligence had the highest bull bear spread since 1986. Boockvar said that there was an extraordinary level of overboughtness. Yardeni Research, Inc. posts data about the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey inculding the Percentage Bulls & Bears. Advisors Sentiment survey is a field of market sentiment. Advisors Sentiment was devised by Abe Cohen of Chartcraft in 1963 and is still operated by Chartcraft, now"
"in recent years included: 2013 +30%; 2014 +11%; 2015 -1%; and 2016 +10%. The U.S. stock market has grown consistently since its low point in March 2009, without a 20% ""correction"" or bear market through August 2018, arguably the longest ""bull market"" in U.S. history. It climbed 320% from its trough on March 9, 2009 through August 2018. However, about half of Americans have not participated in this bull market. In March 2017, NPR summarized the distribution of U.S. stock market ownership (direct and indirect through mutual funds) in the U.S., which is highly concentrated among the wealthiest families: NPR"
"price causes an increase in supply, this destroys the expected negative feedback loop and prices will be unstable. This can be seen in a bubble or crash. Investor sentiment is a contrarian stock market indicator. When a high proportion of investors express a bearish (negative) sentiment, some analysts consider it to be a strong signal that a market bottom may be near. The predictive capability of such a signal (see also market sentiment) is thought to be highest when investor sentiment reaches extreme values. Indicators that measure investor sentiment may include: David Hirshleifer sees in the trend phenomenon a path"
"hope and fear are believed to alter the manner in which investors estimate other possibilities. Fear provokes investors to ask: ""How bad can it get?"", while hope: ""How good can it get?"". In this case, fear drives investors to enhance security, while hope stimulates investors to emphasise potential. One of the best available and accepted tools to measure stock market volatility is CBOE Volatility Index, elaborated by Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1993. In other words, VIX can be defined as a sentiment ratio of Wall Street's fear or greed gauge. It is usually used by traders to check the"
"the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market). As of January 2017, the indicator has been correct 40 out of 50 times, as measured by the S&P 500 Index – a success rate of 80%. However, since a particular football league winning a Super Bowl and the US Stock market have no real connection this is just a coincidence. Therefore, there is no reason to expect it will work as a predictor of future bull markets. Super Bowl indicator The Super Bowl Indicator is a superstition that says that the stock market's performance in a given"
"suddenly, it is likely that new information about the underlying security has been revealed, which may indicate a near-term rise in the underlying security's volatility. However, neither an increase in volatility nor open interest necessarily indicate anything about the direction of future price movements. A leveling off of open interest following a sustained price advance is often an early warning of the end to an uptrending or bull market. Technical analysts view increasing open interest as an indication that new money is flowing into the marketplace. From this assumption, one could conclude that the present trend will continue. Analogously, declining"
"broad market indices have a downturn of 20% or more in value lasting for at least 2 months. There are two types of bull markets. A ""secular bull market"" is a period in which the stock market index is continually reaching all-time highs with only brief periods of correction, as during the 1990s, and can last upwards of 15 years. A ""cyclical bull market"" is a period in which the stock market index is reaching 52-week or multi-year highs and may briefly peak at all-time highs before a rapid decline, as in the early 1970s. It usually occurs within relatively"
"Stock market bubble A stock market bubble is a type of economic bubble taking place in stock markets when market participants drive stock prices above their value in relation to some system of stock valuation. Behavioral finance theory attributes stock market bubbles to cognitive biases that lead to groupthink and herd behavior. Bubbles occur not only in real-world markets, with their inherent uncertainty and noise, but also in highly predictable experimental markets. In the laboratory, uncertainty is eliminated and calculating the expected returns should be a simple mathematical exercise, because participants are endowed with assets that are defined to have"
"whether they are bearish or bullish. Technicians use these surveys to help determine whether a trend will continue or if a reversal could develop; they are most likely to anticipate a change when the surveys report extreme investor sentiment. Surveys that show overwhelming bullishness, for example, are evidence that an uptrend may reverse; the premise being that if most investors are bullish they have already bought the market (anticipating higher prices). And because most investors ""are"" bullish and invested, one assumes that few buyers remain. This leaves more potential sellers than buyers, despite the bullish sentiment. This suggests that prices"
"3%, and would see its return ""climb"" 9% (on average) if the market's return falls by 3%. Higher-beta stocks tend to be more volatile and therefore riskier, but provide the potential for higher returns. Lower-beta stocks pose less risk but generally offer lower returns. Some have challenged this idea, claiming that the data show little relation between beta and potential reward, or even that lower-beta stocks are both less risky and more profitable (contradicting CAPM). In the same way a stock's beta shows its relation to market shifts, it is also an indicator for required returns on investment (ROI). Given"
"sentiment. The stock market's demonstration of the situation is often described as ""all boats float or sink with the tide"", in the popular Wall Street phrase """"the trend is your friend"""". In the last decade, investors are also known to measure market sentiment through the use of news analytics, which include sentiment analysis on textual stories about companies and sectors. A particular thread of scientific literature connects results from behavioural finance, changes of investor attention on financial markets, and fundamental principles of asset pricing: Barberis ""et al."" (1998), Barberis & Thaler (2003), and Baker & Wurgler (2007). The authors argue"
"losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. Crashes are often associated with bear markets, however, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987, for example, did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable crashes. Tulip Mania (in the mid-1630s) is often considered to be the first"
"funds track a stock market index, but it is becoming more common in other investment types, including bonds, commodities and hedge funds. One of the largest equity mutual funds, the Vanguard 500, is passively managed. The two firms with the largest amounts of money under management, BlackRock and State Street, primarily engage in passive management strategies. The concept of passive management is counterintuitive to many investors. The rationale behind indexing stems from the following concepts of financial economics: The bull market of the 1990s helped spur the growth in indexing observed over that decade. Investors were able to achieve desired"
"brand name of Investors Intelligence. The survey surveys independent investment newsletters (those not affiliated with brokerage houses or mutual funds). Findings are reported weekly as the percentage of advisors that are bullish, bearish and those that expect a correction. The survey is anecdotal evidence as to extremes in investor confidence, conditions which are often seen at major market turning points. The survey is often quoted in the media. In August 2009, articles in the LA Times and Wall Street Journal reported that advisors were as bearish as they were in October 2007, a warning sign that markets were getting ahead"
"U.S. shares would appreciate. As recently as May, Biggs, 75, said the U.S. economy will grow in the second half of 2008, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index may climb to a record and commodity prices will retreat as much as 30 percent. However, he correctly called the bottom in U.S. stocks in March 2009, and that year Traxis's flagship fund returned three times the industry average. He had predicted the bull market in U.S. stocks that began in 1982. He also predicted the bearish market in Japanese stocks in 1989, when the Nikkei 225 stock index was approaching its"
"VIX The CBOE Volatility Index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, is a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility implied by S&P 500 index options, calculated and published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and chaired professor Dr. Robert Whaley of the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. It is colloquially referred to as the ""fear index"" or the ""fear gauge"". The formulation of a volatility index, and financial instruments based on such an index, were discussed by Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai in 1986. They stated the ""volatility index, to be named Sigma Index,"
"grade of investor complacency or market fear. In practice, VIX is usually called the fear index. In case of increased VIX index, investors' sentiment leans toward higher volatility which corresponds to higher risk. If a VIX reading is under 20 it usually indicates that investors became less concerned; however, if the reading exceeds 30 it implies that investors are more fearful because prices of the options increased and investors are more prone to pay more to preserve their assets. By utilising short-term near-the-money put and call options, VIX gauges suggested volatility of S&P stock market index options through the forthcoming"
"halts to eliminate predatory behaviors of liquid traders. Flight-to-quality A flight-to-quality, or flight-to-safety, is a financial market phenomenon occurring when investors sell what they perceive to be higher-risk investments and purchase safer investments, such as US Treasuries or gold. This is considered a sign of fear in the marketplace, as investors seek less risk in exchange for lower profits. Flight-to-quality is usually accompanied by an increase in demand for assets that are government-backed and a decline in demand for assets backed by private agents. More broadly, flight-to-quality refers to a sudden shift in investment behaviors in a period of financial"
"in the money (i.e., with a market value above zero). Thus, a higher option price implies greater volatility, other things being equal. Even though the VIX is quoted as a percentage rather than a dollar amount, multiple VIX-based derivative instruments are in existence (totaling roughly $4 Billion in AUM), including: Similar indices for bonds include the MOVE and LBPX indices. Although the VIX is often called the ""fear index"", a high VIX is not necessarily bearish for stocks. Instead, the VIX is a measure of market perceived volatility in either direction, including to the upside. In practical terms, when investors"
"The public began gaining confidence after important businessmen and fund managers addressed press about the concerns of the market. J. Paul Getty, an oil tycoon with large investments in Wall Street, addressed the press and explained, ""When some folks see others selling, they automatically follow suit. I do the reverse—and buy. I don't think the slide will go on. In fact, I think there will be a rather substantial rise shortly."" Walter Benedict, fund manager of the billion dollar mutual fund Investors Planning Corporation, also announced that the market was bullish, stating that his funds had recently purchased $20 million"
"bullish trend), -1 (for a bearish trend, or 0 (neutral)). A net balance of +5 (or higher) was interpreted as a buy signal, while a reading of -5 (or lower) was a sell signal. While the index rarely gave outright buy or sell signals, over time it was found to give an accurate forecast of the stock market. Rukeyser irreverently named the index ""The Elves"" (a reference to the Gnomes of Zürich), and dubbed Nurock the ""Chief Elf."" After being in neutral for a considerable period of time, Rukeyser requested significant changes in the makeup of the index. Nurock refused"
"be forming, as the benefits outweigh the risks of not doing so. Stock market bubble A stock market bubble is a type of economic bubble taking place in stock markets when market participants drive stock prices above their value in relation to some system of stock valuation. Behavioral finance theory attributes stock market bubbles to cognitive biases that lead to groupthink and herd behavior. Bubbles occur not only in real-world markets, with their inherent uncertainty and noise, but also in highly predictable experimental markets. In the laboratory, uncertainty is eliminated and calculating the expected returns should be a simple mathematical"
"it may imply that value stocks are simply riskier and thus require greater returns.. Furthermore, Foye and Mramor (2016) find that country-specific factors have a strong influence on measures of value (such as the book-to-market ratio) this leads them to conclude that the reasons why value stocks outperform are country-specific. An issue with buying shares in a bear market is that despite appearing undervalued at one time, prices can still drop along with the market. Conversely, an issue with not buying shares in a bull market is that despite appearing overvalued at one time, prices can still rise along with"
"January barometer The January barometer is the hypothesis that stock market performance in January (particularly in the U.S.) predicts its performance for the rest of the year. So if the stock market rises in January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of December. The January barometer was first mentioned by Yale Hirsch in 1972. Historically, if the S&P 500 goes up in January, the trend will follow for the rest of the year. Conversely if the S&P falls in January, then it will fall for the rest of the year. From 1950 till 1984 both positive"
"downward movement that is not large enough to be a bear market (ex post). Another type of secondary trend is called a bear market rally (sometimes called ""sucker's rally"" or ""dead cat bounce"") which consists of a market-price increase of only 10% or 20% before the prevailing, bear-market trend resumes. Bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash, leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei 225 has tracked a number of bear-market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall"
"at the beginning of 1999. Such negative divergence was also seen toward the end of the roaring twenties bull market, during 1972 at the height of the Nifty Fifty market, and starting in March 2008 before the late-2008 market collapse. There may be cases in which an index reports a gain at the end of the trading day. This gain may be caused by an increase in a certain number of stocks. However, a significant lead by declining stocks may be observed relative to the advancing stocks. However, these results should be interpreted as a decline in the market, no"
"lower than the peak of the rising market. Therefore, you constantly stand to benefit in the long run because even if the market falls in the future, it will gradually recover and make new highs (higher than the current high). Falling Market: let’s now talk about the second situation- a market correction or bear market. Bear market or falling market would always be stressful for all investors, such as new investors who recently started SIP in January (these investors started SIP on the say of their friends, like in 2017 equity market has given return of 30%+, and in the"
"CBOE Volatility Index), colloquially known as the ""fear index"" or the ""fear gauge"". The financial community and the political class try to do their best to maintain the stability of society, but they cannot fully control what all the people and all the markets are going to do. For example, a majority of Brits unexpectedly voted for a Brexit, throwing a spanner in the works. After 28 January 2018, about $4 trillion worth of stock value in stock markets disappeared in little more than a week, although the stock markets subsequently recovered. At the beginning of 2018, global cryptocurrency holdings"
"Upside beta In investing, upside beta is the element of traditional beta that investors do not typically associate with the true meaning of risk. It is defined to be the scaled amount by which an asset tends to move compared to a benchmark, calculated only on days when the benchmark’s return is positive. Upside beta measures this upside risk. Defining formula_1 and formula_2 as the excess returns to security formula_3 and market formula_4, formula_5 as the average market excess return, and Cov and Var as the covariance and variance operators, the CAPM can be modified to incorporate upside (or downside)"