"in ancient Babylonia where the ceremony was performed at religious dates throughout the year using cedar branches or shavings. In Ancient Greece priests would burn animal sacrifices and then perform Capnomancy over the smoke produced by the fire. The Celts were thought to practice ""dendromancy"", a form of capnomancy, using oak and mistletoe branches. It was also used by the Semang of Malaysia, who would use the ritual to determine whether a camp was safe for the night. There is reference made to the practice in both 17th and 19th century religious texts, although these do not describe how the"
"Daphnomancy Daphnomancy is a form of pyromancy whereby the future is predicted by burning bay laurel leaves. A loud crackling from the fire is a positive omen, whereas silence is a negative one. ""Daphno"" is thought to be a tribute to Daphne, an ancient Greek nymph turned into the first laurel tree by Apollo. Originally, the leaves were selected from the Sacred Grove of Apollo, but as time moved on the practice of daphnomancy spread to pre-Christian era Rome and Greece and was thought to be commonly practiced by augurs of both empires. The original grove from which the Romans"
"Reference class forecasting Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics. Kahneman and Tversky found that human judgment is generally optimistic due to overconfidence and insufficient consideration of distributional information about outcomes. Therefore, people tend"
"where past and future can coalesce much more readily. Future studies or futurology is the science, art and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. A key part of this process is understanding the potential future impact of decisions made by individuals, organisations and governments. Leaders use"
"chaos theory suggests that the predictability of any system is limited because it is impossible to know all of the minutiae of a system at the present time. In principal, the deterministic systems that chaos theory attempts to analyze can be predicted, but uncertainty in a forecast increases exponentially with elapsed time. In the study of human–computer interaction, predictability is the property to forecast the consequences of a user action given the current state of the system. A contemporary example of human-computer interaction manifests in the development of computer vision algorithms for collision-avoidance software in self-driving cars. Researchers at NVIDIA"
"of the Delphi method, scenario building, and simulations. Prediction is similar to forecasting but is used more generally, for instance to also include baseless claims on the future. Organized efforts to predict the future began with practices like astrology, haruspicy, and augury. These are all considered to be pseudoscience today, evolving from the human desire to know the future in advance. Modern efforts such as future studies attempt to predict technological and societal trends, while more ancient practices, such as weather forecasting, have benefited from scientific and causal modelling. Despite the development of cognitive instruments for the comprehension of future,"
"painter, was famous for his series of paintings on abacomancy, which focused on the patterns in the paintings he made to foretell the future. Abacomancy Abacomancy, also known as ""Amathomancy"" (from the Greek word ""amathos"" meaning sand) a form of divination based on the interpretation of the patterns in dust, dirt, silt, sand, or the ashes of the recently deceased. Reading the patterns is believed to give some insight into the future. Readers drop the dirt, sand, or ashes on a flat surface and start looking for a pattern that may represent symbols or pictures. They interpret these symbols and"
"Predictive inference Predictive inference is an approach to statistical inference that emphasizes the prediction of future observations based on past observations. Initially, predictive inference was based on ""observable"" parameters and it was the main purpose of studying probability, but it fell out of favor in the 20th century due to a new parametric approach pioneered by Bruno de Finetti. The approach modeled phenomena as a physical system observed with error (e.g., celestial mechanics). De Finetti's idea of exchangeability—that future observations should behave like past observations—came to the attention of the English-speaking world with the 1974 translation from French of his"
"Probabilistic prognosis Probabilistic prognosis means the anticipation of future events based on a probabilistic structure of past experiences of individual and present situations. Past experiences and present situations help to create hypothesis about the forthcoming future and attributes certain probabilities to them. According to probabilistic prognosis, the preparation of an individual occurs to corresponding actions. This ability is the result of biological evolution in a probabilistically organized environment. The prognosis of living creatures optimizes the results of their actions, and therefore they are adequate, exactly to those variable characteristics of environment on which the success of action – satisfaction of"
"Predictive learning Predictive learning is a technique of machine learning in which an agent tries to build a model of its environment by trying out different actions in various circumstances. It uses knowledge of the effects its actions appear to have, turning them into planning operators. These allow the agent to act purposefully in its world. Predictive learning is one attempt to learn with a minimum of pre-existing mental structure. It may have been inspired by Piaget's account of how children construct knowledge of the world by interacting with it. Gary Drescher's book 'Made-up Minds' was seminal for the area."
"Another more recent predictive learning theory is Jeff Hawkins' memory-prediction framework, which is laid out in his On Intelligence. Predictive learning Predictive learning is a technique of machine learning in which an agent tries to build a model of its environment by trying out different actions in various circumstances. It uses knowledge of the effects its actions appear to have, turning them into planning operators. These allow the agent to act purposefully in its world. Predictive learning is one attempt to learn with a minimum of pre-existing mental structure. It may have been inspired by Piaget's account of how children"
"Spodomancy Spodomancy (also known as tephramancy and tephromancy) is a form of divination by examining cinders, soot, or ashes (), particularly although not exclusively from a ritual sacrifice. Spodomancy has been practiced by numerous cultures, ancient and modern, across the globe. While many practitioners (particularly in Europe) have performed the ritual as part of a formal system of paranormal, religious, or ceremonial magic, many have done so as part of mere folkloric practice or superstition. Spodomancy includes at least two and possibly three other divination practices and rituals involving cinders or ashes. These are: Spodomancy is distinguishable from capnomancy, which"
"Affective forecasting Affective forecasting (also known as hedonic forecasting, or the hedonic forecasting mechanism) is the prediction of one's affect (emotional state) in the future. As a process that influences preferences, decisions, and behavior, affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists, with broad applications. Kahneman and Snell began research on hedonic forecasts in the early 1990s, examining its impact on decision making. The term ""affective forecasting"" was later coined by psychologists Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert. Early research tended to focus solely on measuring emotional forecasts, while subsequent studies began to examine the accuracy of forecasts, revealing that"
"Futures studies Futures studies (also called futurology) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and parallel to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called ""futures"" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. Unlike the physical sciences where a"
"some degree on the capacity to remember the past and imagine the future. These functions include predicting future emotional reactions (affective forecasting), deliberate practice, intertemporal choice, navigation, prospective memory, counterfactual thinking, and planning. Osvath et al. conducted a study on apes to show that they have the ability of foresight. The study consisted of testing for self-control, associative learning, and envisioning in chimpanzees and orangutans through a series of experiments. Critics questioned whether these animals truly exhibited mental time travel, or whether it was associative learning that caused them to behave as they did. The Bischof-Kohler hypothesis says that animals"
"Aspidomancy Aspidomancy (from the Greek word ""aspis"" meaning shield) is a form of divination based on the interpretation of patterns on a shield. Reading the patterns is believed to give some insight into the future. Readers study the shield, looking for a pattern that may represent symbols or pictures. They interpret these symbols and pictures as clues as to what is going to happen in the future. Aspidomancy can also refer to the method of divination of sitting on a shield and reciting incantations to summon an entity or enter a trance, in order to gain knowledge. This method was"
"Carromancy Carromancy (from Greek ""carro"", 'waxen', and ""manteia"", 'divination'), otherwise known as ceromancy, is a form of divination involving wax. One of the most common methods of carromancy is to heat wax until molten, then to pour it directly into cold water. The shapes and movements of the wax as it cools and solidifies can then allegedly be read to forecast auguries of the future. Another method more commonly practiced in the contemporary era is studying the burning of an ordinary candle. The movements and erratic actions of the flame are then said to predict the future. Carromancy also has"
"Abacomancy Abacomancy, also known as ""Amathomancy"" (from the Greek word ""amathos"" meaning sand) a form of divination based on the interpretation of the patterns in dust, dirt, silt, sand, or the ashes of the recently deceased. Reading the patterns is believed to give some insight into the future. Readers drop the dirt, sand, or ashes on a flat surface and start looking for a pattern that may represent symbols or pictures. They interpret these symbols and pictures to what is going to happen in the future. Some look for certain symbols that are seen over and over. Jackson Pollock, renowned"
"Onychomancy Onychomancy or variously onuchomancy, onychomantia, onycomancy, onymancy (from Greek ""onychos"", 'fingernail', and ""manteia"", 'fortune-telling') is an ancient form of divination using fingernails. It consists of watching the reflection of sunlight on the oiled fingernails of an unpolluted boy, then interpreting the symbols that appear. The fingers where symbols appear allegedly indicate the nature of the coming events, while the location of the symbols on the nail allow to date them. The higher the symbol is situated on the nail, the nearer the events are in the future. The term is also used for a method of chiromancy, consisting of"
"outcome of elections via political forecasting techniques (or assess the popularity of politicians) through the use of opinion polls. Prediction games have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events. Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using paranormal or supernatural means such as prophecy or by observing omens. Methods including water divining, astrology, numerology, fortune telling, interpretation of dreams, and many other forms of divination, have been used for millennia to attempt to predict the future. These means of prediction have not been proven by scientific"
"Myomancy Myomancy (from ""myo-"" ""mouse"" + ""-mancy"" ""divination by means of"") is the practice of reading omens from the behavior of rats or mice, a ""theriomantic"" method of divination which might be implied in the Bible verse Isaiah 66:17. In the context of Western history, certain mouse or rat vocalizations (""their particular cries"") and other phenomena, including severe cases of damage wreaked by the rodents, was taken to be a sign predictive of evil. For example, Ælain relates that Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus resigned the dictatorship in consequence of a ""warning"" from these creatures; according to Varro, Cassius Flaminius retired"
"Chronomancy Chronomancy is divination of the best time to do something, the determination of lucky and unlucky days, especially popular in ancient China. The term ""chronomancy"", stemming from the Greek word ""chronos"" (meaning ""time""), and the word ""manteia"" (meaning ""divination"") is also used in fiction to refer to a school of magic involving supernatural manipulation of time. The best known historical figure that has been attributed the power of chronomancy is the Count of St. Germain, the eighteenth century philosopher, alchemist, and spiritualist. He has been believed to transcend time by reincarnation and eternal youth. In modern fantasy role-playing games,"
"aimed at developing techniques based on social network analysis for modeling the key characteristics of terrorist groups and discriminating these groups from other types of societal groups. Sean McGahan, of Northeastern University said the following in his study of SSNA: Futures Markets Applied to Prediction (FutureMAP) was intended to harness collective intelligence by researching prediction market techniques for avoiding surprise and predicting future events. The intent was to explore the feasibility of market-based trading mechanisms to predict political instability, threats to national security, and other major events in the near future. In laymans terms, FutureMap would be a website that"
"Casualty prediction Casualty prediction is the science of predicting the number of deaths or injuries that may result from an epidemic, natural disaster or act of war such as the explosion of a nuclear weapon, chemical weapon or biological weapon. (Casualty estimation is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths in a battle or natural disaster that has already occurred.) The New York University Large Scale Emergency Readiness Project applies agent-based modelling to simulate the effects of a large-scale disaster. Their initial project focused on modelling a 1998 Brazilian food-poisoning incident involving 8,000 injuries and 16 deaths."
"took their laurel branches withered in 68 AD, which contemporary augurs associated with Nero's death. Daphnomancy Daphnomancy is a form of pyromancy whereby the future is predicted by burning bay laurel leaves. A loud crackling from the fire is a positive omen, whereas silence is a negative one. ""Daphno"" is thought to be a tribute to Daphne, an ancient Greek nymph turned into the first laurel tree by Apollo. Originally, the leaves were selected from the Sacred Grove of Apollo, but as time moved on the practice of daphnomancy spread to pre-Christian era Rome and Greece and was thought to"
"Aeromancy Aeromancy (from Greek ἀήρ ""aḗr"", ""air"", and ""manteia"", ""divination"") is divination conducted by interpreting atmospheric conditions. Alternate spellings include arologie, aeriology and aërology. Aeromancy uses cloud formations, wind currents and cosmological events such as comets to attempt to divine the future. There are sub-types of this practice which are as follows: austromancy (wind divination), ceraunoscopy (observing thunder and lightning), chaomancy (aerial vision), meteormancy (meteors and shooting stars), and nephomancy (cloud divination). The first recorded instance of the word ""aeromancy"" being used was found in Chambers, Cycl. Supp, 1753. It was defined as ""That department of science which treats of"
"Lampadomancy Lampadomancy is a form of divination using a single oil lamp or a torch flame. As with Lychnoscopy, the diviner reads presages from the movements of the flame. An alternate method is also practiced, consisting of reading the spots of carbon deposited on paper sheets held over the flame. In yet another method, the diviner uses the lamp as a means of ""attracting spirits to the flames"", in the hope of consulting them regarding future events. In this method, usually a specially designed lamp is employed, on the belief that grotesque forms will attract the spirits. Lychnomancy is a"
"This effort includes collecting quantitative and qualitative data about the possibility, probability, and desirability of change. The plurality of the term ""futures"" in futurology denotes the rich variety of alternative futures, including the subset of preferable futures (normative futures), that can be studied. Practitioners of the discipline previously concentrated on extrapolating present technological, economic or social trends, or on attempting to predict future trends, but more recently they have started to examine social systems and uncertainties and to build scenarios, question the worldviews behind such scenarios via the causal layered analysis method (and others) create preferred visions of the future,"
"When Prophecy Fails When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group That Predicted the Destruction of the World is a classic work of social psychology by Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter which studied a small UFO religion in Chicago called the Seekers that believed in an imminent apocalypse and its coping mechanisms after the event did not occur. Festinger's theory of cognitive dissonance can account for the psychological consequences of disconfirmed expectations. One of the first published cases of dissonance was reported in this book. Festinger and his associates read a story in their"
"ground, it indicates that storms will happen in the near future. Ailuromancy Ailuromancy or aeluromancy (from Greek αἴλουρος ""aílouros"" meaning ""cat""), also known as felidomancy, is a form of theriomancy. It is divination using cats' movements or jumps to predict future events, especially the weather. One of the most common methods of ailuromancy utilizes the movements and behaviours of a cat to predict upcoming weather patterns. For example, if the cat turns its tail to a fire or any substituting heat source, it foretells a possible change in weather, particularly the coming of heavy rain or hard frost. Another example"
"Rhapsodomancy Rhapsodomancy is an ancient form of divination performed by choosing through some method a specific passage or poem from which to ascertain information. There were various methods for practicing rhapsodomancy. Sometimes, individuals would write several verses or sentences from a poet on multiple pieces of wood, paper, or similar material, shake them together in an urn, and pick one at random. Sometimes, they cast dice on a table that was covered with verses; the one on which the die landed was said to contain the prediction. In ancient Rome, the method of sortes involved opening a book and choosing"
"1937 paper, and has since been propounded by such statisticians as Seymour Geisser. Predictive inference Predictive inference is an approach to statistical inference that emphasizes the prediction of future observations based on past observations. Initially, predictive inference was based on ""observable"" parameters and it was the main purpose of studying probability, but it fell out of favor in the 20th century due to a new parametric approach pioneered by Bruno de Finetti. The approach modeled phenomena as a physical system observed with error (e.g., celestial mechanics). De Finetti's idea of exchangeability—that future observations should behave like past observations—came to the"
"Memory-prediction framework The memory-prediction framework is a theory of brain function created by Jeff Hawkins and described in his 2004 book ""On Intelligence"". This theory concerns the role of the mammalian neocortex and its associations with the hippocampi and the thalamus in matching sensory inputs to stored memory patterns and how this process leads to predictions of what will happen in the future. The theory is motivated by the observed similarities between the brain structures (especially neocortical tissue) that are used for a wide range of behaviours available to mammals. The theory posits that the remarkably uniform ""physical"" arrangement of"