"reported a shorter delay). Hameed and Piontkovski have shown the index seems to be most sensitive to the Iceland Low. Taylor and Gangopadhyay have used a simple model developed by Behringer, Regier and Stommel to predict the latitude of the Gulf Stream on the basis of the NAO (see Fig. 1). This model has also been tested using data from a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The latitude of the Gulf Stream is also affected by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Fig. 1 Latitude at which the Gulf Stream leaves the US coast as predicted by the Behringer,"
"cyclone. El Niño (ENSO) shifts the region (warmer water, up and down welling at different locations, due to winds) in the Pacific and Atlantic where more storms form, resulting in nearly constant Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) values in any one basin. The El Niño event typically decreases hurricane formation in the Atlantic, and far western Pacific and Australian regions, but instead increases the odds in the central North and South Pacific and particular in the western North Pacific typhoon region. Tropical cyclones in the northeastern Pacific and north Atlantic basins are both generated in large part by tropical waves from"
"fluctuations in surface waters of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. The name El Niño, from the Spanish for ""the little boy"", refers to the Christ child, because the phenomenon is usually noticed around Christmas time in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of South America. La Niña means ""the little girl"". Their effect on climate in the subtropics and the tropics are profound. The atmospheric signature, the Southern Oscillation (SO) reflects the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The most recent occurrence of El Niño started in September 2006 and lasted until"
"is determined by the strength of the easterly tropical jet over central India. A strong easterly tropical jet results in a strong southwest monsoon over central India, and a weak jet results in a weak monsoon. ""El Niño"" is a warm ocean current originating along the coast of Peru that replaces the usual cold Humboldt Current. The warm surface water moving toward the coast of Peru with El Niño is pushed west by the trade winds, thereby raising the temperature of the southern Pacific Ocean. The reverse condition is known as La Niña. ""Southern oscillation"", a phenomenon first observed by"
"1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80. Some sources say that the El Niños of 2006-07 and 2014-16 were also Central Pacific El Niños. El Nino affects the global climate and disrupts normal weather patterns, which as a result can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others.<ref name=""NIWA El Niño/La Niña""></ref> Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move poleward past the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the Westerlies. Areas west of Japan and Korea tend to experience much fewer September–November tropical cyclone"
"thunderstorms above, it creates increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, including several portions of the South American west coast. The effects of El Niño in South America are direct and stronger than in North America. An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme. The effects during the months of February, March, and April may become critical along the west coast of South America, El Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that"
"warm water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in part because of deep convection over the warm water. El Niño episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, thus resulting in a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia. La Niña episodes are defined as sustained cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, thus resulting in an increase in the strength of the Pacific trade winds, and the opposite effects in Australia when compared to El Niño. Although the"
"tropical waves such as cold fronts and upper-level lows. These are known as baroclinically induced tropical cyclones. There is a strong correlation between Atlantic hurricane activity in the tropics and the presence of an El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño events increase the wind shear over the Atlantic, producing a less-favorable environment for formation and decreasing tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Niña causes an increase in activity due to a decrease in wind shear. According to the Azores High hypothesis by Kam-biu Liu, an anti-phase pattern is expected to exist between the"
"to tropospheric winds across the north Pacific Ocean. ENSO may be linked to civil conflicts. Scientists at The Earth Institute of Columbia University, having analyzed data from 1950 to 2004, suggest ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, with the risk of annual civil conflict doubling from 3% to 6% in countries affected by ENSO during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. El Niño El Niño (; ) is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water"
"and greatly diminish the number which are able to reach full strength. ""El Niño"" and ""La Niña"" are opposite surface temperature anomalies of the Southern Pacific, which heavily influence the weather on a large scale. In the case of El Niño, warm surface water approaches the coasts of South America which results in blocking the upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water. This has serious impacts on the fish populations. In the La Niña case, the convective cell over the western Pacific strengthens inordinately, resulting in colder than normal winters in North America and a more robust cyclone season in South-East Asia"
"to winds) in the Pacific and Atlantic where more storms form, resulting in nearly constant ACE values in any one basin. The El Niño event typically decreases hurricane formation in the Atlantic, and far western Pacific and Australian regions, but instead increases the odds in the central North and South Pacific and particular in the western North Pacific typhoon region. When analyzing the correlation between extremely active tropical cyclones and El Niño events in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, it was concluded by Murakami et al. that strong El Niño events during hurricane seasons are not the only responsible factors and"
"Pacific Ocean. Surface water is blown westwards by the prevailing winds and deeper water is forced upwards to replace it. Every now and then, the surface water sloshes back across the ocean, bringing warm water temperatures along the eastern coasts of the pacific. In non-El Niño years, the Cromwell current is forced to the surface by underwater seamounts near the Galapagos islands (this is called upwelling.) However, during El Nino years the current does not upwell in this way. The waters around the islands are therefore considerably warmer during El Niño years than during normal years. The Cromwell Current is"
"water pollution. Industrial activities such as manufacturing of food, textile, paper, and slaughterhouses emit large amounts of organic waste. El Niño and Global Warming El Niño, a weather phenomenon occurring about every two to seven years when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts Eastward, causing ocean temperatures to be warm, last developed in the country in late 2014. For the past several decades, it has been observed that its occurrence has increased due to climate change as a result of global warming. Its negative impacts may either be heavy rainfall or drought. El Niño greatly impacts the"
"flow from changes in ocean temperatures in equatorial and central Pacific. El Niño effects increase the chances of tropical storms and cyclones; while La Niña effects increase the chances of drought conditions in Tuvalu. On 3 October 2011, drought conditions resulted in a state of emergency being declared as water reserves ran low. Typically the islands of Tuvalu receive between 200mm to 400mm of rainfall per month, however a weak La Niña effect causes a drought by cooling the surface of the sea around Tuvalu. Severe tropical cyclones are usually rare, however the low level of islands makes them very"
"El Niño–Southern Oscillation El Niño–Southern Oscillation (""ENSO"") is an irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as ""El Niño"" and the cooling phase as ""La Niña"". The ""Southern Oscillation"" is the accompanying atmospheric component, coupled with the sea temperature change: ""El Niño"" is accompanied by high air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific and ""La Niña"" with low air surface pressure there. The two periods last several months each (typically occurring every"
"annual cycle (weak late winter, strong late summer), there is also interannual variability as well. The strength of the Atlantic NECC is notably stronger in years following El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with 1983 and 1987 being notable examples. Physically, this implies that the altered convection in the Pacific Ocean due to El Niño drives changes in the meridional gradient of wind stress curl over the equatorial Atlantic. The Pacific NECC is the major eastward moving surface current that transports more than 20 Sv from the West Pacific warm pool to the cooler East Pacific. In the western Pacific"
"impacts during El Niño and neutral years. During El Niño years, the break in the subtropical ridge tends to lie near 130°E, which would favor the Japanese archipelago. Within the Atlantic Ocean vertical wind shear is increased, which inhibits tropical cyclone genesis and intensification, by causing the westerly winds in the atmosphere to be stronger. The atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean can also be drier and more stable during El Niño events, which can also inhibit tropical cyclone genesis and intensification. Within the Eastern Pacific basin: El Niño events contribute to decreased easterly vertical wind shear and favours above-normal hurricane"
"the reverse of those in the Atlantic due to increased sea surface temperatures; therefore, the odds of a hurricane hitting Hawaii or, rarely, California are increased during El Niño years and decreased during La Niña years. Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the United States The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the location of the jet stream, which alters rainfall patterns across the West, Midwest, the Southeast, and throughout the tropics. The shift in the jet stream also leads to shifts in the occurrence of severe weather, and the number of tropical cyclones expected within the tropics in the Atlantic"
"have shown an El Niño-like pattern of ocean temperatures that may be explained by increased tropical cyclone activity and thus increased temperatures in the Eastern Pacific. Some of the heat is transported away from the tropics and may be responsible for past episodes of warmer-than-usual climate, such as in the Eocene and Cretaceous, although there is no agreement on the predominant effects of tropical cyclones on heat transport away from the tropics. There is evidence that under present-day climate when conditions are right typhoons might start El Niño events. Tropical cyclones are dangerous and destructive weather phenomena that are every"
"be used to provide a qualitative basis for conservation practices. El Niño–Southern Oscillation El Niño–Southern Oscillation (""ENSO"") is an irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as ""El Niño"" and the cooling phase as ""La Niña"". The ""Southern Oscillation"" is the accompanying atmospheric component, coupled with the sea temperature change: ""El Niño"" is accompanied by high air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific and ""La Niña"" with low air surface pressure there."
"to increased upwelling. Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study. The extremes of this climate pattern's oscillations cause extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world. Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a single climate phenomenon that periodically fluctuates between three phases: Neutral, La Niña or El Niño. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases that require certain changes to take place in both the ocean and the atmosphere, before an event is declared. Normally the northward"
"2014–16 El Niño event The 2014–16 El Niño was a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that resulted in unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. These unusually warm waters influenced the world's weather in a number of ways, which in turn significantly affected various parts of the world. These included drought conditions in Venezuela, Australia and a number of Pacific islands while significant flooding was also recorded. During the event, more tropical cyclones than normal occurred within the Pacific Ocean, while fewer than normal occurred in the Atlantic Ocean. The"
"few years) and their effects vary in intensity. The two phases relate to the Walker circulation, discovered by Gilbert Walker during the early twentieth century. The Walker circulation is caused by the pressure gradient force that results from a high pressure system over the eastern Pacific Ocean, and a low pressure system over Indonesia. When the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, an ""El Niño"" results, causing the ocean surface to be warmer than average, as upwelling of cold water occurs less or not at all. An especially strong Walker circulation causes a ""La Niña"", resulting in cooler ocean temperatures due"
"today. The Walker cell is indirectly related to upwelling off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. This brings nutrient-rich cold water to the surface, increasing fishing stocks. The Walker circulation is caused by the pressure gradient force that results from a high pressure system over the eastern Pacific Ocean, and a low pressure system over Indonesia. When the Walker circulation weakens or reverses, an El Niño results, causing the ocean surface to be warmer than average, as upwelling of cold water occurs less or not at all. An especially strong Walker circulation causes a La Niña, resulting in cooler ocean"
"Pacific can speed the development of an El Niño or La Niña but usually do not in themselves lead to the onset of a warm or cold ENSO event. However, observations suggest that the 1982-1983 El Niño developed rapidly during July 1982 in direct response to a Kelvin wave triggered by an MJO event during late May. Further, changes in the structure of the MJO with the seasonal cycle and ENSO might facilitate more substantial impacts of the MJO on ENSO. For example, the surface westerly winds associated with active MJO convection are stronger during advancement toward El Niño and"
"Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the United States The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the location of the jet stream, which alters rainfall patterns across the West, Midwest, the Southeast, and throughout the tropics. The shift in the jet stream also leads to shifts in the occurrence of severe weather, and the number of tropical cyclones expected within the tropics in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans affected by changes in the ocean temperature and the subtropical jet stream. The winter will have a negative phase according to the Arctic oscillation (AO). During El Niño, the northern tier of the"
"temperature pattern is when warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific. It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific. El Niño's warm rush of nutrient-poor tropical water, heated by its eastward passage in the Equatorial Current, replaces the cold, nutrient-rich surface water of the Humboldt Current. When El Niño conditions last for many months, extensive ocean warming and the reduction in Easterly Trade winds limits upwelling of cold nutrient-rich deep water and its economic impact to local fishing for"
"El Niño El Niño (; ) is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the"
"ended in late May/early June. The 2014–16 El Niño event influenced tropical cyclone activity around the world, where it contributed to record breaking seasons in the Central Pacific and Australian tropical cyclone basins. By contrast, it limited Atlantic hurricane activity, producing strong vertical wind shear, increased atmospheric stability, stronger sinking motion and drier air across the tropical Atlantic. The Central Pacific basin saw its most active tropical cyclone season on record with 16 tropical cyclones recorded during 2015. Within the Southern Hemisphere, the El Niño pushed tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific Ocean eastwards, with activity flourishing near Vanuatu,"
"resulting in cooler ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean due to increased upwelling. La Niña (, ) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the counterpart of El Niño as part of the broader El Niño Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish, meaning ""the girl"", analogous to El Niño meaning ""the boy"". During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial eastern central Pacific will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C. In the United States, an ""appearance"" of La Niña happens for at least five months"
"eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called ""La Niña"" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, cause global changes of both temperatures and rainfall. Developing countries that are dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are usually most affected. In American Spanish, the capitalized term ""El Niño"" refers to ""the boy"", so named because the pool of warm water in the Pacific near South America is often at its warmest around Christmas."
"the only known instance of twin cyclones during July and attributed to the record strength of the 2014–16 El Niño event. Another unusually strong wind burst led to the atypical formations of Tropical Depression Nine-C and Tropical Storm Pali in late December 2015 and early January 2016, respectively. Similarly, the formation of twin cyclones along the equatorial Pacific can spur the formation of a westerly wind burst and enhance El Niño events. In May 2002, a strong westerly wind burst moved from west to east across the Indian Ocean, producing two separate sets of twin cyclones. It first led to"
"western Great Lakes. During El Niño, the jet stream is oriented from west to east across the southern portion of the United States, making the region more susceptible to severe weather outbreaks. During La Niña, the jet stream and severe weather are likely to be farther north than normal. Due to changes in upper level winds caused by variations in the ENSO cycle, the likelihood of a North Atlantic hurricane hitting the Continental United States is increased during La Niña conditions, and decreased during El Niño conditions. On the other hand, however, hurricanes in the eastern and central Pacific are"