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Energy returned on energy invested
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In physics, energy economics, and ecological energetics, energy returned on energy invested (EROEI or ERoEI); or energy return on investment (EROI), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy (the exergy) delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of exergy used to obtain that energy resource.[1][2] It is a distinct measure from energy efficiency as it does not measure the primary energy inputs to the system, only usable energy.
Arithmetically the EROEI can be written as:
E R O E I = Energy Delivered Energy Required to Deliver that Energy {\displaystyle EROEI={\frac {\hbox{Energy Delivered}}{\hbox{Energy Required to Deliver that Energy}}}} .[3]
When the EROEI of a resource is less than or equal to one, that energy source becomes a net "energy sink", and can no longer be used as a source of energy, but depending on the system might be useful for energy storage (for example a battery). A related measure Energy Store On Energy Invested (ESOEI) is used to analyse storage systems.[4][5]
To be considered viable as a prominent fuel or energy source a fuel or energy must have an EROEI ratio of at least 3:1.[6][3]
Contents
[hide]
1 Non-manmade energy inputs
2 Relationship to net energy gain
3 Low carbon power
3.1 Photovoltaic
3.2 wind turbines
4 Economic influence of EROEI
5 Oil sands
6 Criticism of EROEI
7 Additional EROEI Calculations
8 ESOEI: Energy Stored on Energy Invested
9 EROEI under rapid growth
10 See also
11 References
12 Further reading
13 External links
Non-manmade energy inputs[edit]
The natural or primary energy sources are not included in the calculation of energy invested, only the human-applied sources. For example, in the case of biofuels the solar insolation driving photosynthesis is not included, and the energy used in the stellar synthesis of fissile elements is not included for nuclear fission. The energy returned includes only human usable energy and not wastes such as waste heat.
Nevertheless, heat of any form can be counted where it is actually used for heating. However the use of waste heat in district heating and water desalination in cogeneration plants is rare, globally, and in practical terms it is often excluded in EROEI analysis of energy sources.
Relationship to net energy gain[edit]
EROEI and Net energy (gain) measure the same quality of an energy source or sink in numerically different ways. Net energy describes the amounts, while EROEI measures the ratio or efficiency of the process. They are related simply by
GrossEnergyYield ÷ EnergyExpended = E R O E I {\displaystyle {\hbox{GrossEnergyYield}}\div {\hbox{EnergyExpended}}=EROEI}
or
( NetEnergy ÷ EnergyExpended ) + 1 = E R O E I {\displaystyle ({\hbox{NetEnergy}}\div {\hbox{EnergyExpended}})+1=EROEI}
For example, given a process with an EROEI of 5, expending 1 unit of energy yields a net energy gain of 4 units. The break-even point happens with an EROEI of 1 or a net energy gain of 0. The time to reach this break-even point is called energy payback period (EPP) or energy payback time (EPBT).[7][8]
Low carbon power[edit]
Photovoltaic[edit]
The issue is still subject of numerous studies, giving wildly different answers, and prompting academic argument[9]. That's mainly because the "energy invested" critically depends on technology, methodology, and system boundary assumptions, resulting in a range from a maximum of 2000 kWh/m² of module area down to a minimum of 300 kWh/m² with a median value of 585 kWh/m² according to a meta-study[10].
Regarding output, it obviously depends on the local insolation, not just the system itself, so assumptions have to be made.
Some studies (see below) include in their analysis that photovoltaic produce electricity, while the invested energy may be lower grade primary energy.
Most importantly, even the most pessimist studies conclude in a greater than 1 EROEI (or, in payback time, a shorter than average lifetime) for an installation[11].
A 2015 review in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews assessed the energy payback time and EROI of solar photovoltaics. In this study, which uses an insolation of 1700/kWh/m²/yr and a system lifetime of 30 years, mean harmonized EROIs between 8.7 and 34.2 were found. Mean harmonized energy payback time varied from 1.0 to 4.1 years.[12] A review Pickard reports EROEI estimates for monocrystalline silicon photovoltaics by four groups in the range of 2.2 to 8.8.[13] Raugei, Fullana-i-Palmer and Fthenakis found EROEI in the range of 5.9 to 11.8 and 19 to 39 for the major commercial PV types in South European installations.[14] The low range assumes that primary energy and electricity are of the same quality, whereas the high range (19-39) is calculated by converting the electricity output of PV to primary energy as recommended by the IEA PVPS Task 12 LCA Methodology Guidelines they contributed to write.[15] Furthermore, Fthenakis determined the EROEI to be as high as 60 for the least energy consuming thin-film PV technology installations in the U.S. Southwest.[16]
wind turbines[edit]
The EROI of wind turbines depends on invested energy in the turbine, produced energy and life span of a turbine. In the scientific literature EROIs normally vary between 20 and 50.[17]
Economic influence of EROEI[edit]
EROI — Ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested. Assuming, amongst other things, "Nuclear" depended upon diffusion enrichment which was still used in the US at the time of publication - Murphy & Hall 2010. In 2013 however, the last uranium diffusion plant in the world, at Paducah, closed down.[18] Only newer more efficient technology is now used.
EROI
(for US)
Fuel
1.3 Biodiesel
3.0 Bitumen tar sands
80.0 Coal
1.3 Ethanol corn
5.0 Ethanol sugarcane
100.0 Hydro
35.0 Oil imports 1990
18.0 Oil imports 2005
12.0 Oil imports 2007
8.0 Oil discoveries
20.0 Oil production
10.0 Natural gas 2005
2.6-6.9 (external)
1.1-1.8 (net)
Oil shale (surface mining/ex situ)
2.4-15.8 (electric, external)
1.2-1.6 (electric, net)
6-7 (thermal, external)
Oil shale (in situ)
[19] [20]
105 Nuclear (Centrifugal enrichment)[21]
10.0 Nuclear (with diffusion enrichment- Obsolete)
[22][23][24]
2000 (estimate) Dual Fluid Molten salt - Molten lead Nuclear
[25] [26]
30.0 Oil and gas 1970
14.5 Oil and gas 2005
6.8 Photovoltaic
5.0 Shale oil
1.6 Solar collector
1.9 Solar flat plate
19 CSP electric [27]
18.0 Wind
9.5 Geothermal (without hot water heating)[28]
32.4 Geothermal (with hot water heating)[28]
High per-capita energy use has been considered desirable as it is associated with a high standard of living based on energy-intensive machines. A society will generally exploit the highest available EROEI energy sources first, as these provide the most energy for the least effort. This is an example of David Ricardo's best-first principle. Then progressively lower quality ores or energy resources are used as the higher-quality ones are either exhausted or in use, for example, wind turbines positioned in the windiest areas.
In regard to fossil fuels, when oil was originally discovered, it took on average one barrel of oil to find, extract, and process about 100 barrels of oil. The ratio, for discovery of fossil fuels in the United States, has declined steadily over the last century from about 1000:1 in 1919 to only 5:1 in the 2010s.[3][29]
Although many qualities of an energy source matter (for example oil is energy-dense and transportable, while wind is variable), when the EROEI of the main sources of energy for an economy fall that energy becomes more difficult to obtain and its relative price increases. Therefore, the EROEI gains importance when comparing energy alternatives. Since expenditure of energy to obtain energy requires productive effort, as the EROEI falls an increasing proportion of the economy has to be devoted to obtaining the same amount of net energy.
Since the invention of agriculture, humans have increasingly used exogenous sources of energy to multiply human muscle-power. Some historians have attributed this largely to more easily exploited (i.e. higher EROEI) energy sources, which is related to the concept of energy slaves. Thomas Homer-Dixon [30] argues that a falling EROEI in the Later Roman Empire was one of the reasons for the collapse of the Western Empire in the fifth century CE. In "The Upside of Down" he suggests that EROEI analysis provides a basis for the analysis of the rise and fall of civilisations. Looking at the maximum extent of the Roman Empire, (60 million) and its technological base the agrarian base of Rome was about 1:12 per hectare for wheat and 1:27 for alfalfa (giving a 1:2.7 production for oxen). One can then use this to calculate the population of the Roman Empire required at its height, on the basis of about 2,500–3,000 calories per day per person. It comes out roughly equal to the area of food production at its height. But ecological damage (deforestation, soil fertility loss particularly in southern Spain, southern Italy, Sicily and especially north Africa) saw a collapse in the system beginning in the 2nd century, as EROEI began to fall. It bottomed in 1084 when Rome's population, which had peaked under Trajan at 1.5 million, was only 15,000. Evidence also fits the cycle of Mayan and Cambodian collapse too. Joseph Tainter[31] suggests that diminishing returns of the EROEI is a chief cause of the collapse of complex societies, this has been suggested as caused by peak wood in early societies. Falling EROEI due to depletion of high quality fossil fuel resources also poses a difficult challenge for industrial economies, and could potentially lead to declining economic output and challenge the concept (which is very recent when considered from a historical perspective) of perpetual economic growth.[32]
Tim Garrett links EROEI and inflation directly, based on a thermodynamic analysis of historical world energy consumption (Watts) and accumulated global wealth (US dollars). This economic growth model indicates that global EROEI is the inverse of global inflation over a given time interval. Because the model aggregates supply chains globally, local EROEI is outside its scope.[33]
Oil sands[edit]
Because much of the energy required for producing oil from oil sands (bitumen) comes from low value fractions separated out by the upgrading process, there are two ways to calculate EROEI, the higher value given by considering only the external energy inputs and the lower by considering all energy inputs, including self generated. See: Oil sands#Input energy[34] "utilized detailed energy production and consumption data reported by oil sands producers from 1970 to 2010 to examine trends in historical energy returns from oil sands extraction. " They argued that by 2010, NERs (net energy returns) from oil sands mining and in situ operations had become significantly more energy efficient since 1970 although the NER remained significantly less efficient than conventional oil production. NERs from the oil sands, grew from "1.0 GJ/GJ in 1970 (entirely from the Suncor mining operation) to 2.95 GJ/GJ in 1990 and then to 5.23 GJ/GJ in 2010." [35]
Criticism of EROEI[edit]
Measuring the EROEI of a single physical process is unambiguous, but there is no agreed-upon standard on which activities should be included in measuring the EROEI of an economic process. In addition, the form of energy of the input can be completely different from the output. For example, energy in the form of coal could be used in the production of ethanol. This might have an EROEI of less than one, but could still be desirable due to the benefits of liquid fuels (assuming the latters are not used in the processes of extraction and transformation).
How deep should the probing in the supply chain of the tools being used to generate energy go? For example, if steel is being used to drill for oil or construct a nuclear power plant, should the energy input of the steel be taken into account, should the energy input into building the factory being used to construct the steel be taken into account and amortized? Should the energy input of the roads which are used to ferry the goods be taken into account? What about the energy used to cook the steelworker's breakfasts? These are complex questions evading simple answers.[36] A full accounting would require considerations of opportunity costs and comparing total energy expenditures in the presence and absence of this economic activity.
However, when comparing two energy sources a standard practice for the supply chain energy input can be adopted. For example, consider the steel, but don't consider the energy invested in factories deeper than the first level in the supply chain.
Energy return on energy invested does not take into account the factor of time. Energy invested in creating a solar panel may have consumed energy from a high power source like coal, but the return happens very slowly, i.e. over many years. If energy is increasing in relative value this should favour delayed returns. Some believe[weasel words] this means the EROEI measure should be refined further.
Conventional economic analysis has no formal accounting rules for the consideration of waste products that are created in the production of the ultimate output. For example, differing economic and energy values placed on the waste products generated in the production of ethanol makes the calculation of this fuel's true EROEI extremely difficult.
EROEI is only one consideration and may not be the most important one in energy policy. Energy independence (reducing international competition for limited natural resources), decrease of greenhouse gas emissions (including carbon dioxide and others), and affordability could be more important, particularly when considering secondary energy sources. While a nation's primary energy source is not sustainable unless it has a use rate less than or equal to its replacement rate, the same is not true for secondary energy supplies. Some of the energy surplus from the primary energy source can be used to create the fuel for secondary energy sources, such as for transportation.
Richards and Watt propose an Energy Yield Ratio for photovoltaic systems as an alternative to EROEI (which they refer to as Energy Return Factor). The difference is that it uses the design lifetime of the system, which is known in advance, rather than the actual lifetime. This also means that it can be adapted to multi-component systems where the components have different lifetimes.[37]
Another issue with EROI that many studies attempt to tackle is that the energy returned can be in different forms, and these forms can have different utility. For example, electricity can be converted more efficiently than thermal energy into motion, due to electricity's lower entropy.
Additional EROEI Calculations[edit]
There are three prominent expanded EROEI calculations, they are point of use, extended and societal. Point of Use EROEI expands the calculation to include the cost of refining and transporting the fuel during the refining process. Since this expands the bounds of the calculation to include more production process EROEI will decrease.[3] Extended EROEI includes point of use expansions as well as including the cost of creating the infrastructure needed for transportation of the energy or fuel once refined.[38] Societal EROI is a sum of all the EROEIs of all the fuels used in a society or nation. A societal EROI has never been calculated and researchers believe it may currently be impossible to know all variables necessary to complete the calculation, but attempted estimates have been made for some nations. Calculations done by summing all of the EROEIs for domestically produced and imported fuels and comparing the result to the Human Development Index (HDI), a tool often used to understand well-being in a society.[39] According to this calculation, the amount of energy a society has available to them increases the quality of life for the people living in that country and countries with less energy available also have a harder time satisfying citizens’ basic needs.[40] This is to say that societal EROI and overall quality of life are very closely linked.
ESOEI: Energy Stored on Energy Invested[edit]
ESOEI (or ESOIe) is used for storage technologies. It is below 1. "ESOIe is the ratio of electrical energy stored over the lifetime of a storage device to the amount of embodied electrical energy required to build the device."[5]
Storage Technology
ESOEI[5]
Lead acid battery 5
Zinc bromide battery 9
Vanadium redox battery 10
NaS battery 20
Lithium ion battery 32
Pumped hydroelectric storage 704
Compressed air energy storage 792
EROEI under rapid growth[edit]
A related recent concern is energy cannibalism where energy technologies can have a limited growth rate if climate neutrality is demanded. Many energy technologies are capable of replacing significant volumes of fossil fuels and concomitant green house gas emissions. Unfortunately, neither the enormous scale of the current fossil fuel energy system nor the necessary growth rate of these technologies is well understood within the limits imposed by the net energy produced for a growing industry. This technical limitation is known as energy cannibalism and refers to an effect where rapid growth of an entire energy producing or energy efficiency industry creates a need for energy that uses (or cannibalizes) the energy of existing power plants or production plants.[41]
The solar breeder overcomes some of these problems. A solar breeder is a photovoltaic panel manufacturing plant which can be made energy-independent by using energy derived from its own roof using its own panels. Such a plant becomes not only energy self-sufficient but a major supplier of new energy, hence the name solar breeder. Research on the concept was conducted by Centre for Photovoltaic Engineering, University of New South Wales, Australia.[42][43] The reported investigation establishes certain mathematical relationships for the solar breeder which clearly indicate that a vast amount of net energy is available from such a plant for the indefinite future.[44] The solar module processing plant at Frederick, Maryland[45] was originally planned as such a solar breeder. In 2009 the Sahara Solar Breeder Project was proposed by the Science Council of Japan as a cooperation between Japan and Algeria with the highly ambitious goal of creating hundreds of GW of capacity within 30 years.[46] Theoretically breeders of any kind can be developed. In practice, nuclear breeder reactors are the only large scale breeders that have been constructed as of 2014, with the 600 MWe BN-600 and 800 MWe BN-800 reactor, the two largest in operation.
See also[edit]
Energy portal
Renewable energy portal
Business and economics portal
Ecology portal
Environment portal
Embodied energy
Emergy
Energy balance
Energy cannibalism
Exergy useful energy
Jevons paradox — 1880s observation of the efficiency effect multiplier
Khazzoom-Brookes Postulate — 1980s updating of Jevons paradox
Cost of electricity by source — levelized cost of energy
Social metabolism
References[edit]
Jump up ^ Murphy, D.J.; Hall, C.A.S. (2010). "Year in review EROI or energy return on (energy) invested". Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 1185: 102–118. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2009.05282.x.
Jump up ^ Cutler, Cleveland (2011-08-30). "Energy return on investment (EROI)". The Encyclopedia of Earth. Retrieved 2011-09-02.
^ Jump up to: a b c d Hall, CA; Lambert, JG; Balogh, SB (2013). "EROI of different fuels and the implications for society". Energy Policy: 141–52. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.049.
Jump up ^ "Why energy storage is a dead-end industry - Energy Storage Report". 15 October 2014.
^ Jump up to: a b c http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2013/ee/c3ee41973h
Jump up ^ Atlason, R; Unnthorsson, R (2014). "Ideal EROI (energy return on investment) deepens the understanding of energy systems". Energy: 241–45.
Jump up ^ Marco Raugei, Pere Fullana-i-Palmer and Vasilis Fthenakis (March 2012). "The Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) of Photovoltaics: Methodology and Comparisons with Fossil Fuel Life Cycles" (PDF). http://www.bnl.gov/. Archived (PDF) from the original on 28 March 2015. External link in |website= (help)CS1 maint: Uses authors parameter (link)
Jump up ^ Ibon Galarraga, M. González-Eguino, Anil Markandya (1 January 2011). "Handbook of Sustainable Energy". Edward Elgar Publishing. p. 37. ISBN 0857936387. Retrieved 9 May 2017 – via Google Books. CS1 maint: Multiple names: authors list (link)
Jump up ^ F. Ferroni; et al. (2017). "Further considerations to: Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) for photovoltaic solar systems in regions of moderate insolation. In". Energy Policy. 107: 498–505. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.007. CS1 maint: Explicit use of et al. (link)
Jump up ^ Dale, M.; et al. (2013). "Energy balance of the global photovoltaic (PV) industry -- is the PV industry a net electricity producer?. In". Environmental Science and Technology. 47 (7): 3482–3489. doi:10.1021/es3038824.
Jump up ^ For instance, Ferroni et al. conclude a PV installations in regions of moderate insolation like Switzerland and Germany would produce 2203 kWh/m2 for a 1300 kWh/m2 investment. Their conclusion that a whole photovoltaic grid would be a net sink with current technology, is based on some loss of energy produced when not needed, and further energy investments required --storage-- to have energy when needed.
Jump up ^ Bhandari; et al. (2015). "Energy payback time (EPBT) and energy return on energy invested (EROI) of solar photovoltaic systems: A systematic review and meta-analysis. In". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 47: 133–141. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2015.02.057. CS1 maint: Explicit use of et al. (link)
Jump up ^ "Energy return on energy invested (eroi): a quintessential but possibly inadequate metric for sustainability in a solar-powered world?. Proceedings of IEEE Volume 102, Issue 8, 18 July 2014, Pages 1118–1122". Proceedings of the IEEE. 102: 1118–1122. doi:10.1109/JPROC.2014.2332092.
Jump up ^ "Raugei M., Fullana-i-Palmer P., Fthenakis V., The energy return on energy investment (EROI) of photovoltaics: Methodology and comparisons with fossil fuel life cycles. Energy Policy 45, 576-587, 2012". Energy Policy. 45: 576–582. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.03.008.
Jump up ^ "Fthenakis V. , R. Frischknecht, M. Raugei, H. C. Kim, E. Alsema, M. Held and M. de Wild-Scholten, 2011, Methodology Guidelines on Life Cycle Assessment of Photovoltaic Electricity, 2nd edition, International Energy Agency, Report IEA-PVPS T12-03:2011, November 2011".
Jump up ^ "Fthenakis V., PV Energy ROI Tracks Efficiency Gains, Solar Today, American Solar Energy Society, 26(4), 24-26, 2012" (PDF).
Jump up ^ Zimmermann (2013). "Parameterized tool for site specific LCAs of wind energy converters". The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. 18: 49–60. doi:10.1007/s11367-012-0467-y.
Jump up ^ "Paducah enrichment plant to be closed. The 1950s facility is the last remaining gaseous diffusion uranium enrichment plant in the world.".
Jump up ^ University of Utah Institute for Clean and Secure Energy (November 6, 2013). "Clean and Secure Energy from Domestic Oil Shale and Oil Sands Resources" (PDF).
Jump up ^ Cleveland, Cutler J.; O'Connor, Peter A. (2011). "Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of Oil Shale". University of Utah Institute for Clean and Secure Energy. Sustainability.
Jump up ^ Weissbach, D.; et al. (April 6, 2013). "Energy intensities, EROIs, and energy payback times of electricity generating power plants" (PDF). CS1 maint: Explicit use of et al. (link)
Jump up ^ "Paducah enrichment plant to be closed". www.world-nuclear-news.org. Retrieved 2015-12-04.
Jump up ^ Wald, Matthew L. (2013-05-24). "USEC to Shut Uranium-Enrichment Plant in Kentucky". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2015-12-04.
Jump up ^ "Paducah Site | Department of Energy". energy.gov. Retrieved 2015-12-04.
Jump up ^ "Institute for Solid-State Nuclear Physics".
Jump up ^ "DFR – The Dual Fluid Reactor". 26 March 2014.
Jump up ^ Weissbach, D.; et al. (April 6, 2013). "Energy intensities, EROIs, and energy payback times of electricity generating power plants" (PDF). CS1 maint: Explicit use of et al. (link)
^ Jump up to: a b Atlason, R.S.; Unnthorsson, R. (1 March 2013). "Hot water production improves the energy return on investment of geothermal power plants". Energy. 51: 273–280. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.003.
Jump up ^ Hall, Charles A.S. "EROI: definition, history and future implications" (PowerPoint). Retrieved 2009-07-08.
Jump up ^ Homer-Dixon, Thomas (2007). The Upside of Down; Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilisation. Island Press. ISBN 978-1-59726-630-7.
Jump up ^ Tainter, Joseph (1990). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 052138673X.
Jump up ^ Morgan, Tim (2013). Life After Growth. Petersfield, UK: Harriman House. ISBN 9780857193391.
Jump up ^ Garrett, T. J. (2012). "No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change". Earth System Dynamics. 3: 1. doi:10.5194/esd-3-1-2012.
Jump up ^ Brandt 2013
Jump up ^ Brandt, A. R.; Englander, J.; Bharadwaj, S. (2013). "The energy efficiency of oil sands extraction: Energy return ratios from 1970 to 2010". Energy. 55: 693. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.03.080. "Current oil sands operations have mine mouth NERs (net energy returns) of about 6 GJ output per GJ of energy consumed and point of use energy returns of about 3 GJ/GJ."
Jump up ^ Richards, Michael; Hall, Charles (2014). "Does a Change in Price of Fuel Affect GDP Growth? An Examination of the US Data from 1950–2013". Energies. 7: 6558–6570. doi:10.3390/en7106558.
Jump up ^ Richards, B.S.; Watt, M.E. (2006). "Permanently dispelling a myth of photovoltaics via the adoption of a new net energy indicator" (PDF). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 11: 162–172. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2004.09.015.
Jump up ^ Hall CA, Lambert JG, Balogh SB. 2013. EROEI of different fuels and the implications for society. Energy Policy. 141–52
Jump up ^ Lambert JG, Hall CA, Balogh S, Gupta A, Arnold M. 2014. Energy, EROI and quality of life. Energy Policy.
Jump up ^ Lambert JG, Hall CA, Balogh S, Gupta A, Arnold M. 2014. Energy, EROI and quality of life. Energy Policy. 153–67 & Arvesen A, Hertwich EG. 2014. More caution is needed when using life cycle assessment to determine energy return on investment (EROI). Energy Policy. 1–6
Jump up ^ Pearce, J.M. (2008). "Limitations of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Technologies Set by Rapid Growth and Energy Cannibalism". Klima. Archived from the original on 2009-08-17. Retrieved 2011-04-06.
Jump up ^ "The Azimuth Project: Solar Breeder". Retrieved 2011-04-06.
Jump up ^ Lindmayer, Joseph (1978). The solar breeder. Proceedings, Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Luxembourg, September 27–30, 1977. Dordrecht: D. Reidel Publishing. pp. 825–835. ISBN 9027708894. OCLC 222058767. Retrieved 2011-04-06.
Jump up ^ Lindmayer, Joseph (1977). The Solar Breeder. NASA.
Jump up ^ "The BP Solarex Facility Tour in Frederick, MD". Sustainable Cooperative for Organic Development. Retrieved 28 February 2013.
Jump up ^ Koinuma, H.; Kanazawa, I.; Karaki, H.; Kitazawa, K. (Mar 26, 2009), Sahara solar breeder plan directed toward global clean energy superhighway, Science Council of Japan
Further reading[edit]
Heinberg, Richard (2003). The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies. Gabriola, BC: New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-482-7.
Gupta, Ajay K; Hall, Charles A.S (2011). "A Review of the Past and Current State of EROI Data". Sustainability. 3 (10): 1796–1809. doi:10.3390/su3101796. Retrieved 25 March 2012.
Lambert, JG; Hall, CA (2014). "Energy, EROI and quality of life". Energy Policy. 64: 153–67. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.001. Retrieved 1 October 2015.
Morgan, Tim (2013). Life After Growth. Petersfield, UK: Harriman House. ISBN 9780857193391.
External links[edit]
World-Nuclear.org, World Nuclear Association study on EROEI with assumptions listed.
Web.archive.org, Wayback Archive of OilAnalytics.org, "EROI as a Measure of Energy Availability"
EOearth.org, Energy return on investment (EROI)
EOearth.org, Net energy analysis
H2-pv.us, Essay on H2-PV Breeder Synergies
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Age of Aquarius
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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This article is about the astrological time period. For other uses with the term Aquarius, see Aquarius (disambiguation).
"The Age of Aquarius" redirects here. For the song, see Aquarius/Let the Sunshine In.
"Age of Aquarius" is an astrological term denoting either the current or forthcoming astrological age, depending on the method of calculation. Astrologers maintain that an astrological age is a product of the earth's slow precessional rotation and lasts for 2,160 years, on average (26,000-year period of precession / 12 zodiac signs = 2,160 years).
There are various methods of calculating the length of an astrological age. In sun-sign astrology, the first sign is Aries, followed by Taurus, Gemini, Cancer, Leo, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, Sagittarius, Capricorn, Aquarius, and Pisces, whereupon the cycle returns to Aries and through the zodiacal signs again. Astrological ages, however, proceed in the opposite direction ("retrograde" in astronomy). Therefore, the Age of Aquarius follows the Age of Pisces.[1]
Contents
[hide]
1 Overview
2 Astrological meaning
3 Common cultural associations
4 See also
5 References
Overview[edit]
The approximate 2,150 years for each age corresponds to the average time it takes for the vernal equinox to move from one constellation of the zodiac into the next. This can be computed by dividing the earth's 25,800-year gyroscopic precession period by twelve, the number of zodiac constellations used by astrologers. According to different astrologers' calculations, approximate dates for entering the Age of Aquarius range from AD 1447 (Terry MacKinnell) to AD 3597 (John Addey).[2]
Astrologers do not agree on when the Aquarian age will start or even if it has already started.[3] Nicholas Campion in The Book of World Horoscopes lists various references from mainly astrological sources for the start of the Age of Aquarius. Based on Campion's research, most published materials on the subject state that the Age of Aquarius arrived in the 20th century (29 claims), with the 24th century in second place with twelve claimants.[4]
Astrological ages exist as a result of precession of the equinoxes. The slow wobble of the earth's spin axis on the celestial sphere is independent of the diurnal rotation of the Earth on its own axis and the annual revolution of the earth around the sun. Traditionally this 25,800-year-long cycle is calibrated, for the purposes of determining astrological ages, by the location of the sun in one of the twelve zodiac constellations at the vernal equinox, which corresponds to the moment the sun rises above the celestial equator, marking the start of spring in the Northern Hemisphere each year. Roughly every 2,150 years the sun's position at the time of the vernal equinox will have moved into a new zodiacal constellation. However zodiacal constellations are not uniform in size, leading some astrologers to believe that the corresponding ages should also vary in duration. This however is a contentious issue among astrologers.
In 1929 the International Astronomical Union defined the edges of the 88 official constellations. The edge established between Pisces and Aquarius officially locates the beginning of the Aquarian Age around AD 2600. Many astrologers dispute this approach because of the varying sizes and overlap between the zodiacal constellations.[5]
Astrological meaning[edit]
Astrologers believe that an astrological age affects humanity, possibly by influencing the rise and fall of civilizations or cultural tendencies.
Traditionally, Aquarius is associated with electricity, computers, flight, democracy, freedom, humanitarianism, idealism, modernization, astrology, nervous disorders, rebellion, nonconformity, philanthropy, veracity, perseverance, humanity, and irresolution.[6][7]
The variations of views among astrologers include:
Among other dates, one view is that the Age of Aquarius arrived around 1844, with the harbinger of the Siyyid `Alí Muḥammad (1819–1850), who founded Bábism.[8]
Marcia Moore and Mark Douglas promoted the view that, although no one knows when the Aquarian Age begins, the American Revolution, the Industrial Revolution, and the discovery of electricity are all attributable to the Aquarian Age.[9] Moore and Douglas make a number of predictions about the trends that they believe will develop in the Aquarian Age.[10]
A common position expressed by many astrologers sees the Age of Aquarius as that time when humanity takes control of the Earth and its own destiny as its rightful heritage, with the destiny of humanity being the revelation of truth and the expansion of consciousness, and that some people will experience mental enlightenment in advance of others and therefore be recognized as the new leaders in the world.[11]
Proponents of medieval astrology suggest that the Pisces world where religion is the opiate of the masses will be replaced in the Aquarian Age by a world ruled by secretive, power-hungry elites seeking absolute power over others; that knowledge in the Aquarian Age will only be valued for its ability to win wars; that knowledge and science will be abused, not industry and trade; and that the Aquarian Age will be a Dark Age in which religion is considered offensive.[12]
Another view suggests that the rise of scientific rationalism, combined with the fall of religious influence, the increasing focus on human rights since the 1780s, the exponential growth of technology, plus the advent of flight and space travel, are evidence of the dawning of the Age of Aquarius.[13][14]
A "wave" theory of the shifting Great Ages suggests that the Age of Aquarius will not arrive on a given date but is instead emerging in influence over many years, similar to how the tide surges forward incrementally rather than all at once.[15]
Rudolf Steiner believed that the Age of Aquarius will arrive in 3573. In Steiner's approach, each age is exactly 2,160 years. Based on this structure, the world has been in the Age of Pisces since 1413. Rudolf Steiner had spoken about two great spiritual events: the return of Christ in the ethereal world (and not in a physical body), because people must develop their faculties until they can reach the ethereal world; and the incarnation of Ahriman, Zoroaster's "destructive spirit" that will try to block the evolution of humanity.[16]
A variation of Steiner's approach has the age of Aquarius arriving in 1433 (or up to two years earlier), with the influence of Pisces exceeding Aquarius at this time.[17][self-published source]
In an article about feminism in the French newspaper La Fronde from February 26, 1890, August Vandekerkhove stated: "About March, 21st this year the cycle of Aquarius will start. Aquarius is the house of the woman". He adds that is in this age the woman will be equal to the man.[citation needed]
Common cultural associations[edit]
The expression Age of Aquarius in popular culture usually refers to the heyday of the hippie and New Age movements in the 1960s and 1970s.
Although more rock than new-age in genre, the 1967 musical Hair, with its opening song "Aquarius" and the memorable line "This is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius", brought the Aquarian age concept to the attention of audiences worldwide. However, the song further defines this dawning of the age within the first lines: "When the Moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars, then peace will guide the planets and love will steer the stars". Astrologer Neil Spencer denounced the lyrics as "astrological gibberish", noting that Jupiter aligns with Mars several times a year and the moon is in the 7th House for two hours every day.[18]
These lines are considered by many[who?] to be merely poetic license, though some people take them literally. An example is the identification of Valentine's Day 2009 as the "perfect alignment to support our collective manifestation of love and peace and dawning of the Age of Aquarius".[19] In popular culture, the NBC television show Aquarius, which premiered on May 28, 2015, is based on the Charles Manson case. The name relates to the "dawn of Aquarius," also commonly referred to as the New Age way of thinking.
See also[edit]
1960s portal
Anthropocene
Astrological age
Milankovitch cycles
Woodstock
References[edit]
Jump up ^ Neil Spencer, True as the Stars Above, 2000, pp. 115–27 - chapter 7 - "Love Shall Steer the Stars - The Long Dawning of the Age of Aquarius"
Jump up ^ Nicholas Campion, The Book of World Horoscopes, 1999, pp. 489–95
Jump up ^ Neil Spencer, True as the Stars Above, 2000, p. 115
Jump up ^ Eight researchers claim the Aquarian age will arrive in the 25th century while the 21st, 26th, and 27th centuries have seven supporters each. Other centuries that have a number of supporters for the beginning of the Aquarian age include: 22nd and 23rd centuries (6 each); 19th century (5); and the 18th century (4) Nicholas Campion, The Book of World Horoscopes, The Wessex Astrologer Ltd., 1999, Pgs 489-495
Jump up ^ Ray Grasse, Signs of the Times, 2002, p. 263
Jump up ^ Rex E Bills, The Ruler-ship Book, 1974, pp. 362–365
Jump up ^ Geoffrey Dean, Recent Advances in Natal Astrology - A Critical Review 1900–1976, 1977, p. 54
Jump up ^ David Williams, Simplified Astronomy for Astrologers, 1969, American Federation of Astrologers, pp. 45–56
Jump up ^ Marcia Moore & Mark Douglas, Astrology, The Divine Science, 1971, p. 677
Jump up ^ Marcia Moore & Mark Douglas, Astrology, The Divine Science, 1971, p. 687
Jump up ^ Vera W Reid, Towards Aquarius , 1971, pp. 97–116
Jump up ^ Robert Zoller, "The Use of Archetypes in Prediction", The FAA Journal September 2002 Volume 32 No 3 (Federation of Australian Astrologers), pp. 37–53
Jump up ^ Neil Spencer, True as the Stars Above, 2000, pp. 126–7
Jump up ^ Louis MacNeice, Astrology, Bloomsbury Books, London, 1989, pp. 100–1
Jump up ^ Ray Grasse, Signs of the Times, 2002, pp. 228–231
Jump up ^ Christian Lazaridès, "Vivons-nous les commencements de l'Ere des Poissons" - Editions anthroposophiques romandes. 1989 pp. 143–155
Jump up ^ Terry MacKinnell, "The Dawning – Shedding New Light on the Astrological Ages", Xlibris, 2011, pp. 296–7 ISBN 978-1-4568-8253-2
Jump up ^ Neil Spencer, True as the Stars Above, 2000, p. 124.
Jump up ^ Judecurrivan.com
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