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Projections of population growth
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World population estimates from 1800 to 2100, based on "high", "medium" and "low" United Nations projections in 2015 and UN historical estimates for pre-1950 data.
Projections of population growth established in 2015 predict that the human population will keep growing until at least 2050, reaching an estimated 8 billion people in 2024 and 9 billion by 2040, while the 7 billion milestone was reached in 2011.[1] As the demographic transition follows its course worldwide, the population will age significantly, with most countries outside Africa trending towards a rectangular age pyramid.[2]
According to the 2016 edition of the United Nations' World Population Prospects report, the world population is currently growing by approximately 83 million people each year.[3]:2 The growth rate keeps slowing, having decreased from 1.55% per year in 1995 to 1.25% in 2005, 1.18% in 2015 and 1.1% in 2016. The median estimate for future growth sees the world population reaching 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100,[3]:2 assuming a continuing decrease in average fertility rate from 2.5 in 2015 to 2.25 in 2050 and 2.0 in 2100.[3]:10 With longevity trending towards uniform and stable values worldwide, the main driver of future population growth is the evolution of the fertility rate.[3]:8
While most scenarios still predict continued growth into the 22nd century, there is a roughly 23% chance that the total population could stabilize or begin to fall before 2100.[3]:3 Longer-term speculative scenarios over the next two centuries can predict anything between runaway growth to radical decline (36.4 billion or 2.3 billion people in 2300), with the median projection showing a slight decrease followed by a stabilization around 9 billion people.[4]:13
By 2050, the bulk of the world's population growth will take place in Africa: of the additional 2.4 billion people projected between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion will be added in Africa, 0.9 billion in Asia and only 0.2 billion in the rest of the world. Africa's share of global population is projected to grow from 16% in 2015 to 25% in 2050 and 39% by 2100, while the share of Asia will fall from 60% in 2015 to 54% in 2050 and 44% in 2100.[3]:3 The strong growth of the African population will happen regardless of the rate of decrease of fertility, because of the exceptional proportion of young people already living today. For example, the UN projects that the population of Nigeria will surpass that of the United States by 2050.[3]:4 The population of the more developed regions is slated to remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2 billion, as international migrations from high-growth regions compensate the fertility deficit of richer countries.[3]:11
Contents
[hide]
1 Growth regions
1.1 Projected migration to Western countries
2 World population in 2050
3 Most populous nations by 2030
4 After 2050
5 Population projections of the 101 largest cities in the 21st century
6 See also
7 References
Growth regions[edit]
A world map showing global variations in fertility rate per woman, according to the CIA World Factbook's 2015 data.
7–8 children
6–7 children
5–6 children
4–5 children
3–4 children
2–3 children
1–2 children
0–1 children
During 2005–2050, twelve countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population increase: India, China, United States, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Philippines, Mexico and Egypt, listed according to the size of their contribution to population growth.
In 2010–2015, the average world fertility was 2.5 children per woman, about half the level in 1950–1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.25 children per woman in 2045–2050 and 2.0 in 2095–2100.[3]:10
Global life expectancy at birth, which is estimated to have risen from 46 years in 1950–1955 to 65 years in 2000–2005, is expected to keep rising to reach 75 years in 2045–2050. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 75 years today to 82 years by mid-century. Among the least developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 50 years, it is expected to be 66 years in 2045–2050. The population of 31 countries or areas, including Ukraine, Romania, Japan and most of the successor states of the Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005.
Projected migration to Western countries[edit]
According to the United Nations, during 2005–2050 the net number of international migrants to more developed regions is projected to be 98 million. Because deaths are projected to exceed births in the more developed regions by 73 million during 2005–2050, population growth in those regions will largely be due to international migration. In 2000–2005, net migration in 28 countries either prevented population decline or doubled at least the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth. These countries include Austria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom.[5]
By 2050 (Medium variant), India will have 1.570 billion people, China 1.46 billion, United States 391 million,Pakistan 344 million, Indonesia 327 million, Nigeria 278 million, Bangladesh 265.8 million, Brazil 247 million, Democratic Republic of Congo 195.3 million, Ethiopia 188.5 million, Mexico 164 million, Philippines 157.1 million, Egypt 142 million, Russia 133 million, Tanzania 129.4 million, Vietnam 112.8 million, Japan 107 million, Uganda 101 million, Turkey 96 million, Kenya 95.5 million, Iran 92.1 million, Sudan 81 million, Germany 78 million and the United Kingdom 75 million. [6]
World population in 2050[edit]
Estimates of population levels in different continents between 1950 and 2050, according to the United Nations. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is in millions of people.
The median scenario of the UN 2015 world population prospects[3]:2 predicts the following populations per continent in 2050:
Asia and Oceania – 5.3 billion
Africa – 2.5 billion
Americas – 1.2 billion
Europe – 0.7 billion
World total – 9.7 billion
Walter Greiling projected in the 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion, in the 21st century, and then stop growing after a readjustment of the Third World and a sanitation of the tropics.[7] Recent extrapolations from available figures for population growth show that the population of Earth will stop increasing around 2070.[8]
In a 2004 long-term prospective report, the United Nations Population Division projected the world population to peak at 9.22 billion in 2075. After reaching this maximum, it would decline slightly and then resume a slow increase, reaching a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, about the same as the projected 2050 figure.[4]:1 However, with more recent data on hand, the same institution in 2015 predicted continued growth beyond 2100.[3]:2 A 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division forecast that the world's population will reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter.[9]
Jørgen Randers, one of the authors of the seminal 1972 long-term simulations in The Limits to Growth, offered an alternative scenario in a 2012 book, arguing that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" predicts a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline.[10]
These projected growth patterns depend on assumptions about vital rates. Total fertility is assumed to continue to decline, at varying paces depending on circumstances in individual countries, to a below-replacement level of 1.85 children per woman by mid century. Countries already at this level or below, and other countries when they reach it, will eventually return to replacement over a period of a century and stay at replacement going forward. All countries are projected to have reached replacement fertility by 2175.
Some of the authors of the 2004 UN report say that life expectancy is assumed to rise slowly and continuously. The projections in the report assume this with no upper limit, though at a slowing pace depending on circumstances in individual countries. By 2100, the report assumes life expectancy to be from 66 to 97 years, and by 2300 from 87 to 106 years, depending on the country. Based on that assumption, they said that rising life expectancy will produce small but continuing population growth by the end of the projections, ranging from 0.03 to 0.07 percent annually.
However, based on recent research, many expect that life expectancy will leap ahead and indefinite human lifespans are not necessarily unfeasible.[11][12][13] This could significantly raise the estimates. In an essay within the U.N. report, Tim Dyson said,
"A rapid increase in life expectancy, which would raise the population pyramids, seems within reach, since it responds to an old and powerful demand for longevity."[4]
Most populous nations by 2030[edit]
For a more comprehensive list, see List of countries by future population (United Nations, medium fertility variant).
The UN Population Division has calculated the future population of the world's countries, based on current demographic trends. The 2015 study projects the world population in 2030 to be 8.5 billion people, with the following estimates for the top 10 countries:[3]:18
2030 rank
(projected)
2015 rank
Rank change
Country
2030 population
(projected)
2015 population
Population
change
1 2 +1 India (demographics) 1,527,658,000 1,311,051,000 +16.5%
2 1 −1 China (demographics) 1,415,545,000 1,376,049,000 +2.9%
3 3 United States (demographics) 355,765,000 321,774,000 +10.6%
4 4 Indonesia (demographics) 295,482,000 257,564,000 +14.8%
5 6 +1 Pakistan (demographics) 274,916,000 198,925,000 +35.7%
6 7 +1 Nigeria (demographics) 252,599,000 182,202,000 +39.2%
7 5 −2 Brazil (demographics) 228,663,000 207,848,000 +10.1%
8 8 Bangladesh (demographics) 186,460,000 160,996,000 +15.9%
9 11 +2 Mexico (demographics) 148,133,000 127,017,000 +16.7%
10 9 −1 Russia (demographics) 138,652,000 143,457,000 −3.3%
World (demographics) 8,500,766,000 7,349,472,000 +15.7%
After 2050[edit]
Projections for after 2050 have usually assumed that fertility rates will have declined by then and the population will be stable or will decrease. However, a study in 2014 found that fertility rates in Africa have leveled off at around 4.6 instead of continuing to decline, and that consequently world population may be as high as 12 billion by 2100. Reasons for the continuing high birth rate include better survival rates with respect to HIV, and contraception shortage.[14][15] Another study, on the other hand, concludes that education of women will lead to low fertility rates even in Africa.[14] Evolutionary biology also suggests the demographic transition may reverse itself; in addition, recent evidence suggests birth rates may be rising in the 21st century in the developed world.[16]
Recent UN projections estimate the world population in 2100 to be 11.184 billion.[17]
Population projections of the 101 largest cities in the 21st century[edit]
Large urban areas are hubs of economic development and innovation, with larger cities underpinning regional economies and local and global sustainability initiatives. Currently, 757 million humans live in the 101 largest cities;[18] these cities are home to 11% of the world’s population.[18] By the end of the century, the world population is projected to grow, with estimates ranging from 6.9 billion to 13.1 billion;[18] the percentage of people living in the 101 larger cities is estimated to be 15% to 23%.[18]
The following 101 cities with the largest population projections for the years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 are listed below.[18]
Rank
City
Projected
Population (millions)
2025
City
Projected
Population (millions)
2050
City
Projected
Population (millions)
2075
City
Projected
Population (millions)
2100
1 Tokyo 36.40 Mumbai 42.40 Dhaka 57.86 Lagos 88.30
2 Mumbai 26.39 Dhaka 36.16 Lagos 55.26 Kinshasa 83.50
3 Dhaka 22.50 Delhi 35.19 Kinshasa 54.51 Dar es Salaam 73.68
4 Delhi 22.02 Kinshasa 35.00 Delhi 49.34 Mumbai 67.24
5 São Paulo 21.43 Kolkata 33.04 Kolkata 45.09 Delhi 63.05
6 Mexico City 21.01 Lagos 32.63 Karachi 43.37 Lilongwe 57.43
7 New York City 20.63 Tokyo 32.62 Mumbai 42.45 Dhaka 57.33
8 Kolkata 20.56 Karachi 31.70 Dar es Salaam 37.49 Blantyre 56.78
9 Shanghai 19.41 New York City 24.77 Cairo 33.00 Khartoum 56.59
10 Karachi 19.10 Mexico City 24.33 Manila 32.75 Niamey 55.24
11 Kinshasa 16.76 Manila 24.26 Kabul 32.67 Kolkata 52.40
12 Buenos Aires 16.50 Cairo 24.04 Khartoum 30.68 Kabul 50.30
13 Lagos 15.80 Bogota 23.55 Nairobi 28.42 Karachi 49.33
14 Cairo 15.56 São Paulo 22.83 Bogota 27.90 Nairobi 46.66
15 Bogota 15.21 Shanghai 22.32 New York City 27.19 N’Djamena 41.15
16 Beijing 14.55 Buenos Aires 22.13 Buenos Aires 25.63 Cairo 40.54
17 Manila 14.20 Lahore 17.45 Tokyo 24.64 Manila 39.96
18 Los Angeles 13.67 Kabul 17.09 Baghdad 24.39 Mogadishu 36.37
19 Rio de Janeiro 13.41 Los Angeles 16.42 Lahore 23.88 Addis Ababa 35.82
20 Jakarta 12.36 Chennai 16.28 Addis Ababa 23.71 Lusaka 35.76
21 Istanbul 12.10 Khartoum 16.00 Mexico City 22.80 Baghdad 34.10
22 Guangzhou 11.84 Dar es Salaam 15.97 Chennai 22.21 Kampala 31.41
23 Osaka-Kobe 11.37 Beijing 15.97 Bangalore 21.31 Bogota 31.03
24 Moscow 10.53 Jakarta 15.92 Niamey 20.37 Buenos Aires 30.26
25 Lahore 10.51 Bangalore 15.62 Kampala 20.23 New York City 27.25
26 Shenzhen 10.20 Baghdad 15.09 Hyderabad 19.94 Lahore 27.01
27 Chennai 10.13 Hyderabad 14.61 São Paulo 19.73 Chennai 25.81
28 Paris 10.04 Luanda 14.30 Los Angeles 18.02 Bangalore 24.77
29 Chicago 9.93 Rio de Janeiro 14.29 Kano 17.69 Kano 24.52
30 Tehran 9.81 Nairobi 14.25 Luanda 17.15 Hyderabad 23.17
31 Seoul 9.74 Istanbul 14.18 Ahmedabad 16.96 Dakar 21.18
32 Bangalore 9.72 Addis Ababa 13.21 Sana'a 16.69 Ibadan 20.53
33 Lima 9.60 Guangzhou 13.00 Mogadishu 15.94 Maputo 20.39
34 Wuhan 9.34 Ahmedabad 12.43 Lilongwe 15.23 Sana’a 19.91
35 Tianjin 9.24 Chittagong 12.21 Blantyre 15.06 Ahmedabad 19.71
36 Hyderabad 9.09 Chicago 11.93 Jakarta 14.96 Kigali 18.30
37 London 8.62 Ho Chi Minh City 11.86 Pune 14.91 Los Angeles 18.06
38 Bangkok 8.33 Lima 11.57 Ibadan 14.81 Bamako 17.85
39 Hong Kong 8.31 Shenzhen 11.20 Chittagong 14.73 Pune 17.32
40 Chongqing 8.28 Paris 11.12 Dakar 14.56 Mexico City 17.25
41 Luanda 8.24 Bangkok 11.08 Lusaka 14.52 Abuja 16.28
42 Ho Chi Minh City 8.15 Tehran 11.00 N'Djamena 14.48 Tokyo 15.54
43 Baghdad 8.06 Pune 10.92 Abidjan 14.27 Antananarivo 15.45
44 Khartoum 7.94 Abidjan 10.71 Shanghai 14.17 Conakry 14.79
45 Ahmedabad 7.74 Kano 10.44 Bamako 13.54 Alexandria 14.73
46 Chittagong 7.64 Wuhan 10.26 Chicago 13.09 Phnom Penh 14.60
47 Kabul 7.18 Moscow 10.24 Bangkok 12.55 Surat 14.53
48 Salvador 4.22 Osaka-Kobe 10.19 Surat 12.51 Abidjan 14.16
49 Pune 6.80 Tianjin 10.15 Antananarivo 12.40 Luanda 14.03
50 Hanoi 6.75 Sana'a 10.05 Rio de Janeiro 12.35 Mombasa 14.01
51 Belo Horizonte 6.75 Hanoi 9.83 Ho Chi Minh City 12.32 São Paulo 13.77
52 Santiago 6.31 London 9.75 Alexandria 11.99 Chittagong 13.37
53 Riyadh 6.28 Seoul 9.47 Abuja 11.75 Chicago 13.12
54 Miami 6.27 Hong Kong 9.47 Ouagadougou 11.70 Ouagadougou 12.63
55 Dongguan 6.16 Kampala 9.43 Istanbul 11.56 Bangkok 12.14
56 Shenyang 6.16 Surat 9.17 Lima 11.35 Kanpur 11.73
57 Addis Ababa 6.16 Chongqing 9.09 Maputo 10.92 Kaduna 11.45
58 Philadelphia 6.13 Ibadan 8.75 Paris 10.87 Lubumbashi 11.07
59 Abidjan 6.03 Alexandria 8.73 Conakry 10.63 Giza 11.01
60 Toronto 5.95 Dakar 8.52 Beijing 10.62 Faisalabad 11.00
61 Madrid 5.94 Yangon 8.44 Tehran 10.36 Jaipur 10.95
62 Nairobi 5.87 Riyadh 8.09 Hanoi 10.21 Mbuji-Mayi 10.72
63 Yangon 5.87 Bamako 7.63 Kanpur 10.09 Jakarta 10.17
64 Surat 5.70 Miami 7.53 London 10.09 Monrovia 10.12
65 Dar es Salaam 5.69 Salvador 4.49 Kigali 9.79 Lucknow 10.05
66 Alexandria 5.65 Kanpur 7.39 Faisalabad 9.73 Benin City 9.66
67 Dallas-Fort Worth 5.42 Philadelphia 7.36 Lubumbashi 9.57 London 9.56
68 Tlaquepaque 5.37 Antananarivo 7.26 Moscow 9.51 Paris 9.33
69 Tonalá 5.37 Belo Horizonte 7.19 Hong Kong 9.46 Nagpur 9.13
70 Zapopan 5.37 Faisalabad 7.11 Jaipur 9.43 Ho Chi Minh City 9.05
71 Chengdu 5.32 Toronto 7.04 Yangon 9.37 Lima 9.05
72 Xi'an 5.23 Abuja 6.94 Mbuji-Mayi 9.27 Mosul 8.87
73 Barcelona 5.18 Jaipur 6.91 Giza 8.96 Rio de Janeiro 8.62
74 Atlanta 5.15 Ouagadougou 6.90 Phnom Penh 8.85 Moscow 8.43
75 Guiyang 5.11 Niamey 6.79 Lucknow 8.65 Al Hudaydah 8.42
76 Singapore 5.10 Santiago 6.77 Guangzhou 8.64 Miami 8.29
77 Kano 5.06 Dongguan 6.76 Mombasa 8.53 Lomé 8.27
78 Houston 5.05 Shenyang 6.76 Miami 8.27 Hong Kong 8.27
79 Boston 5.03 Mogadishu 6.57 Kaduna 8.26 Patna 8.17
80 Guadalajara 4.97 Giza 6.52 Philadelphia 8.09 Tehran 8.17
81 Guadalupe 4.95 Madrid 6.52 Accra 7.98 Accra 8.17
82 Washington DC 4.89 Dallas-Fort Worth 6.51 Nagpur 7.86 Port Harcourt 8.15
83 Sydney 4.83 Lucknow 6.34 Riyadh 7.76 Philadelphia 8.10
84 Nanjing 4.77 Tlaquepaque 6.22 Osaka-Kobe 7.69 Tashkent 8.10
85 Harbin 4.70 Tonalá 6.22 Toronto 7.59 Yangon 8.02
86 Porto Alegre 4.63 Zapopan 6.22 Seoul 7.52 Battambang 7.98
87 Detroit 4.61 Atlanta 6.19 Shenzhen 7.44 Taiz 7.92
88 Kanpur 4.60 Lubumbashi 6.15 Lomé 7.25 Rawalpindi 7.88
89 Ankara 4.59 Conakry 6.14 Dallas-Fort Worth 7.14 Kathmandu 7.82
90 Brasilia 4.58 Houston 6.06 Monrovia 7.08 Pikine 7.87
91 Algiers 4.50 Boston 6.04 Douala 7.07 Indore 7.66
92 St. Petersburg 4.48 Mbuji-Mayi 5.95 Al Hudaydah 7.06 Ogbomosho 7.64
93 Monterrey 4.41 Accra 5.94 Patna 7.03 Douala 7.64
94 Sana’a 4.38 Aleppo 5.90 Rawalpindi 6.97 Hanoi 7.50
95 Recife 4.35 Washington DC 5.87 Benin City 6.97 Brazzaville 7.45
96 Changchun 4.34 Chengdu 5.84 Aleppo 6.88 Toronto 7.44
97 Jaipur 4.30 Sydney 5.82 Wuhan 6.82 Al Qalyubiyah 7.24
98 Faisalabad 4.28 Guadalajara 5.76 Atlanta 6.79 Dushanbe 7.18
99 Melbourne 4.24 Nagpur 5.76 Tianjin 6.75 Maiduguri 7.17
100 Ibadan 4.23 Xi'an 5.75 Houston 6.66 Dallas-Fort Worth 7.16
101 Dakar 4.23 Guadalupe 5.73 Taiz 6.64 Zaria 7.13
See also[edit]
Population projection
Population growth
World population estimates
Human overpopulation
Pledge two or fewer (campaign for smaller families)
List of countries and territories by fertility rate
References[edit]
Jump up ^ "World Population Forecast". Worldometers. Retrieved 26 June 2016.
Jump up ^ He, Wan; Goodkind, Daniel; Kowal, Paul (March 2016). "An Aging World: 2015 – International Population Reports" (PDF). United States Census Bureau. Retrieved 26 June 2016.
^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j k l "World Population Prospects: The 2016 Revision – Key Findings and Advance Tables" (PDF). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. July 2016. Retrieved 26 June 2017.
^ Jump up to: a b c "World Population to 2300" (PDF). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2004.
Jump up ^ https://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2005/pop918.doc.html[dead link]
Jump up ^ http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050_rank.html
Jump up ^ Walter Greiling: Wie werden wir leben? ("How are we going to live?") Econ publishers, Munich 1954
Jump up ^ Ciro Pabón y Ciro Pabón, Manual de Urbanismo, Editorial Leyer, Bogotá, 2007, ISBN 978-958-711-296-2
Jump up ^ Gerland, P.; Raftery, A. E.; Ev Ikova, H.; Li, N.; Gu, D.; Spoorenberg, T.; Alkema, L.; Fosdick, B. K.; Chunn, J.; Lalic, N.; Bay, G.; Buettner, T.; Heilig, G. K.; Wilmoth, J. (September 14, 2014). "World population stabilization unlikely this century". Science. AAAS. 346 (6206): 234–7. doi:10.1126/science.1257469. ISSN 1095-9203. PMC 4230924  . PMID 25301627. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
Jump up ^ Randers, Jørgen (2012). 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing. p. 62.
Jump up ^ Newmark, PA; Sánchez Alvarado, A (2002). "Not your father's planarian: a classic model enters the era of functional genomics". Nat Rev Genet. 3: 210–219. doi:10.1038/nrg759. PMID 11972158.
Jump up ^ Bavestrello, Giorgio; Sommer, Christian; Sarà, Michele (1992). "Bi-directional conversion in Turritopsis nutricula (Hydrozoa)". Scientia Marina. 56 (2–3): 137–140.
Jump up ^ Martínez, DE (1998). "Mortality patterns suggest lack of senescence in hydra". Exp Gerontol. 33 (3): 217–225. doi:10.1016/S0531-5565(97)00113-7. PMID 9615920.
^ Jump up to: a b Andy Coghlan (27 Sep 2014). "Global population may boom well beyond the year 2050". New Scientist: 11.
Jump up ^ Patrick Gerland, Adrian Raftery; et al. (18 Sep 2014). "World population stabilization unlikely this century". Science. 346: 234–7. doi:10.1126/science.1257469. PMC 4230924  . PMID 25301627.
Jump up ^ Can we be sure the world's population will stop rising?, BBC News, 13 October 2012
Jump up ^ https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf
^ Jump up to: a b c d e Hoornweg, Daniel; Pope, Kevin (January 2014). "Population predictions of the 101 largest cities in the 21st century" (PDF). Global Cities Institute (Working Paper No. 4).
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