text:
Scenario analysis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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See also: Climate change mitigation scenarios
Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes (sometimes called "alternative worlds"). Thus, scenario analysis, which is one of the main forms of projection, does not try to show one exact picture of the future. Instead, it presents several alternative future developments. Consequently, a scope of possible future outcomes is observable. Not only are the outcomes observable, also the development paths leading to the outcomes. In contrast to prognoses, the scenario analysis is not based on extrapolation of the past or the extension of past trends. It does not rely on historical data and does not expect past observations to remain valid in the future. Instead, it tries to consider possible developments and turning points, which may only be connected to the past. In short, several scenarios are fleshed out in a scenario analysis to show possible future outcomes. Each scenario normally combines optimistic, pessimistic, and more and less probable developments. However, all aspects of scenarios should be plausible. Although highly discussed, experience has shown that around three scenarios are most appropriate for further discussion and selection. More scenarios risks making the analysis overly complicated.[1][2]
Contents
[hide]
1 Principle
2 Applications
2.1 Financial
2.2 Geopolitical
3 Traditional critique
4 See also
5 References
6 Further reading
7 External links
Principle[edit]
Scenario-building is designed to allow improved decision-making by allowing consideration of outcomes and their implications.
Scenario analysis can also be used to illuminate "wild cards." For example, analysis of the possibility of the earth being struck by a meteor suggests that whilst the probability is low, the damage inflicted is so high that the event is much more important (threatening) than the low probability (in any one year) alone would suggest. However, this possibility is usually disregarded by organizations using scenario analysis to develop a strategic plan since it has such overarching repercussions.
Applications[edit]
Financial[edit]
In economics and finance, a financial institution might use scenario analysis to forecast several possible scenarios for the economy (e.g. rapid growth, moderate growth, slow growth) and for financial market returns (for bonds, stocks and cash) in each of those scenarios. It might consider sub-sets of each of the possibilities. It might further seek to determine correlations and assign probabilities to the scenarios (and sub-sets if any). Then it will be in a position to consider how to distribute assets between asset types (i.e. asset allocation); the institution can also calculate the scenario-weighted expected return (which figure will indicate the overall attractiveness of the financial environment). It may also perform stress testing, using adverse scenarios.[3]
Depending on the complexity of the problem, scenario analysis can be a demanding exercise. It can be difficult to foresee what the future holds (e.g. the actual future outcome may be entirely unexpected), i.e. to foresee what the scenarios are, and to assign probabilities to them; and this is true of the general forecasts never mind the implied financial market returns. The outcomes can be modeled mathematically/statistically e.g. taking account of possible variability within single scenarios as well as possible relationships between scenarios. In general, one should take care when assigning probabilities to different scenarios as this could invite a tendency to consider only the scenario with the highest probability.[4]
Geopolitical[edit]
In politics or geopolitics, scenario analysis involves reflecting on the possible alternative paths of a social or political environment and possibly diplomatic and war risks.
Traditional critique[edit]
While there is utility in weighting hypotheses and branching potential outcomes from them, reliance on scenario analysis without reporting some parameters of measurement accuracy (standard errors, confidence intervals of estimates, metadata, standardization and coding, weighting for non-response, error in reportage, sample design, case counts, etc.) is a poor second to traditional prediction. Especially in “complex” problems, factors and assumptions do not correlate in lockstep fashion. Once a specific sensitivity is undefined, it may call the entire study into question.
It is faulty logic to think, when arbitrating results, that a better hypothesis will render empiricism unnecessary. In this respect, scenario analysis tries to defer statistical laws (e.g., Chebyshev's inequality Law), because the decision rules occur outside a constrained setting. Outcomes are not permitted to “just happen”; rather, they are forced to conform to arbitrary hypotheses ex post, and therefore there is no footing on which to place expected values. In truth, there are no ex ante expected values, only hypotheses, and one is left wondering about the roles of modeling and data decision. In short, comparisons of "scenarios" with outcomes are biased by not deferring to the data; this may be convenient, but it is indefensible.
“Scenario analysis” is no substitute for complete and factual exposure of survey error in economic studies. In traditional prediction, given the data used to model the problem, with a reasoned specification and technique, an analyst can state, within a certain percentage of statistical error, the likelihood of a coefficient being within a certain numerical bound. This exactitude need not come at the expense of very disaggregated statements of hypotheses. R Software, specifically the module “WhatIf,”[5] (in the context, see also Matchit and Zelig) has been developed for causal inference, and to evaluate counterfactuals. These programs have fairly sophisticated treatments for determining model dependence, in order to state with precision how sensitive the results are to models not based on empirical evidence.
See also[edit]
ACEGES – an agent-based model for scenario analysis
Climate change mitigation scenarios – possible futures in which global warming is reduced by deliberate actions
Energy modeling – the process of building computer models of energy systems
Global Scenario Group
Morphological analysis
Scenario planning
Stress testing
References[edit]
Jump up ^ Aaker, David A. (2001). Strategic Market Management. New York: John Wiley & Sons. pp. 108 et seq. ISBN 0-471-41572-3.
Jump up ^ Bea, F.X., Haas, J. (2005). Strategisches Management. Stuttgart: Lucius & Lucius. pp. 279 and 287 et seq.
Jump up ^ "Scenario Analysis in Risk Management", Bertrand Hassani, Published by Springer, 2016, ISBN 978-3-319-25056-4, [1]
Jump up ^ The Art of the Long View: Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your Company, Peter Schwartz, Published by Random House, 1996, ISBN 0-385-26732-0 Google book
Jump up ^ "WhatIf: Software for Evaluating Counterfactuals", H Stoll, G King, L Zeng - Journal of Statistical Software, 2006
Further reading[edit]
"Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios", Liam Fahey and Robert M. Randall, Published by John Wiley and Sons, 1997, ISBN 0-471-30352-6, Google book
"Shirt-sleeve approach to long-range plans.", Linneman, Robert E, Kennell, John D.; Harvard Business Review; Mar/Apr77, Vol. 55 Issue 2, p141
External links[edit]
Learn how to use Scenario Manager in Excel to do Scenario Analysis
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Wall Street Crash of 1929
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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"Black Tuesday" redirects here. For other uses, see Black Tuesday (disambiguation).
For other uses, see Wall Street Crash (disambiguation).
Crowd gathering on Wall Street after the 1929 crash.
The Wall Street Crash of 1929, also known as the Stock Market Crash of 1929 or the Great Crash, is the stock market crash that occurred in late October, 1929. It started on October 24 ("Black Thursday") and continued through October 29, 1929 ("Black Tuesday"), when share prices on the New York Stock Exchange collapsed.
It was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States, when taking into consideration the full extent and duration of its after effects.[1] The crash, which followed the London Stock Exchange's crash of September, signalled the beginning of the 12-year Great Depression that affected all Western industrialized countries.[2]
Contents
1 Timeline
2 Analysis
2.1 Economic fundamentals
2.2 Subsequent actions
2.3 World War II
3 Effects
3.1 Effect on Europe
4 Academic debate
5 See also
6 Notes
7 Further reading
8 External links
Timeline[edit]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1928–1930
The Roaring Twenties, the decade that followed World War I that led to the crash,[3] was a time of wealth and excess. Building on post-war optimism, rural Americans migrated to the cities in vast numbers throughout the decade with the hopes of finding a more prosperous life in the ever-growing expansion of America's industrial sector.[4] While the American cities prospered, the overproduction of agricultural produce created widespread financial despair among American farmers throughout the decade.[4] This would later be blamed as one of the key factors that led to the 1929 stock market crash.[5]
Despite the dangers of speculation, many believed that the stock market would continue to rise forever. On March 25, 1929, after the Federal Reserve warned of excessive speculation, a mini crash occurred as investors started to sell stocks at a rapid pace, exposing the market's shaky foundation.[6] Two days later, banker Charles E. Mitchell announced his company the National City Bank would provide $25 million in credit to stop the market's slide.[6] Mitchell's move brought a temporary halt to the financial crisis and call money declined from 20 to 8 percent.[6] However, the American economy showed ominous signs of trouble:[6] steel production declined, construction was sluggish, automobile sales went down, and consumers were building up high debts because of easy credit.[6] Despite all these economic trouble signs and the market breaks in March and May 1929, stocks resumed their advance in June and the gains continued almost unabated until early September 1929 (the Dow Jones average gained more than 20% between June and September). The market had been on a nine-year run that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average increase in value tenfold, peaking at 381.17 on September 3, 1929.[6] Shortly before the crash, economist Irving Fisher famously proclaimed, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."[7] The optimism and financial gains of the great bull market were shaken after a well publicized early September prediction from financial expert Roger Babson that "a crash was coming".[citation needed] The initial September decline was thus called the "Babson Break" in the press. This was the start of the Great Crash, although until the severe phase of the crash in October, many investors regarded the September "Babson Break" as a "healthy correction" and buying opportunity.[citation needed]
On September 20, the London Stock Exchange crashed when top British investor Clarence Hatry and many of his associates were jailed for fraud and forgery.[8] The London crash greatly weakened the optimism of American investment in markets overseas.[8] In the days leading up to the crash, the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery.
Selling intensified in mid-October. On October 24 ("Black Thursday"), the market lost 11 percent of its value at the opening bell on very heavy trading. The huge volume meant that the report of prices on the ticker tape in brokerage offices around the nation was hours late, so investors had no idea what most stocks were actually trading for at that moment, increasing panic. Several leading Wall Street bankers met to find a solution to the panic and chaos on the trading floor.[9] The meeting included Thomas W. Lamont, acting head of Morgan Bank; Albert Wiggin, head of the Chase National Bank; and Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank of New York. They chose Richard Whitney, vice president of the Exchange, to act on their behalf.
With the bankers' financial resources behind him, Whitney placed a bid to purchase a large block of shares in U.S. Steel at a price well above the current market. As traders watched, Whitney then placed similar bids on other "blue chip" stocks. This tactic was similar to one that ended the Panic of 1907. It succeeded in halting the slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered, closing with it down only 6.38 points for the day. The rally continued on Friday, October 25, and the half day session on Saturday the 26th but, unlike 1907, the respite was only temporary.
The trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange in 1930, six months after the crash of 1929
Over the weekend, the events were covered by the newspapers across the United States. On October 28, "Black Monday",[10] more investors facing margin calls decided to get out of the market, and the slide continued with a record loss in the Dow for the day of 38.33 points, or 13%.
The next day, "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, about 16 million shares traded as the panic selling reached its peak. Some stocks actually had no buyers at any price that day ("air pockets"[citation needed]). The Dow lost an additional 30 points, or 12 percent.[11][12][13][14] The volume of stocks traded on October 29, 1929, was a record that was not broken for nearly 40 years.[12]
On October 29, William C. Durant joined with members of the Rockefeller family and other financial giants to buy large quantities of stocks to demonstrate to the public their confidence in the market, but their efforts failed to stop the large decline in prices. Due to the massive volume of stocks traded that day, the ticker did not stop running until about 7:45 p.m. The market had lost over $30 billion in the space of two days which included $14 billion on October 29 alone.[15]
Dow Jones Industrial Average on Black Monday and Black Tuesday[16]
Date
Change
% Change
Close
October 28, 1929 −38.33 −12.82 260.64
October 29, 1929 −30.57 −11.73 230.07
After a one-day recovery on October 30, where the Dow regained an additional 28.40 points, or 12 percent, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. The following year, the Dow embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1931 to July 8, 1932, when it closed at 41.22—its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89 percent loss rate for all of the market's stocks. For most of the 1930s, the Dow began slowly to regain the ground it lost during the 1929 crash and the three years following it, beginning on March 15, 1933, with the largest percentage increase of 15.34 percent, with the Dow Jones closing at 62.10, with an 8.26 point increase. The largest percentage increases of the Dow Jones occurred during the early and mid-1930s. In late 1937, there was a sharp dip in the stock market, but prices held well above the 1932 lows. The market would not return to the peak closing of September 3, 1929, until November 23, 1954.[17][18]
Analysis[edit]
Economic fundamentals[edit]
The crash followed a speculative boom that had taken hold in the late 1920s. During the latter half of the 1920s, steel production, building construction, retail turnover, automobiles registered, even railway receipts advanced from record to record. The combined net profits of 536 manufacturing and trading companies showed an increase, in the first six months of 1929, of 36.6% over 1928, itself a record half-year. Iron and steel led the way with doubled gains.[19] Such figures set up a crescendo of stock-exchange speculation which had led hundreds of thousands of Americans to invest heavily in the stock market. A significant number of them were borrowing money to buy more stocks. By August 1929, brokers were routinely lending small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying. Over $8.5 billion was out on loan,[20] more than the entire amount of currency circulating in the U.S. at the time.[15][21]
The rising share prices encouraged more people to invest; people hoped the share prices would rise further. Speculation thus fueled further rises and created an economic bubble. Because of margin buying, investors stood to lose large sums of money if the market turned down—or even failed to advance quickly enough. The average P/E (price to earnings) ratio of S&P Composite stocks was 32.6 in September 1929,[22] clearly above historical norms.[23] As per the economist John Kenneth Galbraith, this exuberance also resulted in a large number of people placing their savings and money in leverage investment products like Goldman Sachs' "Blue ridge trust" and "Shenandoah trust". These too crashed in 1929 resulting in losses to banks of $475 billion (in 2010 dollars, which is equivalent to $533.06 billion in 2017).[24]
Sir George Paish
Good harvests had built up a mass of 250 million bushels of wheat to be "carried over" when 1929 opened. By May there was also a winter-wheat crop of 560 million bushels ready for harvest in the Mississippi Valley. This oversupply caused a drop in wheat prices so heavy that the net incomes of the farming population from wheat were threatened with extinction. Stock markets are always sensitive to the future state of commodity markets, and the slump in Wall Street predicted for May by Sir George Paish arrived on time. In June 1929, the position was saved by a severe drought in the Dakotas and the Canadian West, plus unfavorable seed times in Argentina and eastern Australia. The oversupply would now be wanted to fill the big gaps in the 1929 world wheat production. From 97¢ per bushel in May, the price of wheat rose to $1.49 in July. When it was seen that at this figure the American farmers would get rather more for their smaller crop than for that of 1928, up went stocks again and from far and wide orders came to buy shares for the profits to come.
In August, the wheat price fell when France and Italy were bragging of a magnificent harvest, and the situation in Australia improved. This sent a shiver through Wall Street and stock prices quickly dropped, but word of cheap stocks brought a fresh rush of "stags", amateur speculators and investors. Congress had also voted for a 100 million dollar relief package for the farmers, hoping to stabilize wheat prices. By October though, the price had fallen to $1.31 per bushel.[25]
Other important economic barometers were also slowing or even falling by mid-1929, including car sales, house sales, and steel production. The falling commodity and industrial production may have dented even American self-confidence, and the stock market peaked on September 3 at 381.17 just after Labor Day, then started to falter after Roger Babson issued his prescient "market crash" forecast. By the end of September, the market was down 10% from the peak (the "Babson Break"). Selling intensified in early and mid October, with sharp down days punctuated by a few up days. Panic selling on huge volume started the week of October 21 and intensified and culminated on October 24, the 28th, and especially the 29th ("Black Tuesday").[26]
The president of the Chase National Bank said at the time:
We are reaping the natural fruit of the orgy of speculation in which millions of people have indulged. It was inevitable, because of the tremendous increase in the number of stockholders in recent years, that the number of sellers would be greater than ever when the boom ended and selling took the place of buying."[27]
Subsequent actions[edit]
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In 1932, the Pecora Commission was established by the U.S. Senate to study the causes of the crash. The following year, the U.S. Congress passed the Glass–Steagall Act mandating a separation between commercial banks, which take deposits and extend loans, and investment banks, which underwrite, issue, and distribute stocks, bonds, and other securities.
After the experience of the 1929 crash, stock markets around the world instituted measures to suspend trading in the event of rapid declines, claiming that the measures would prevent such panic sales. However, the one-day crash of Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%, was worse in percentage terms than any single day of the 1929 crash (although the combined 25% decline of October 28–29, 1929 was larger than October 19, 1987, and remains the worst two-day decline ever).[citation needed]
World War II[edit]
The American mobilization for World War II at the end of 1941 moved approximately ten million people out of the civilian labor force and into the war.[28] World War II had a dramatic effect on many parts of the economy, and may have hastened the end of the Great Depression in the United States.[29] Government-financed capital spending accounted for only 5 percent of the annual U.S. investment in industrial capital in 1940; by 1943, the government accounted for 67 percent of U.S. capital investment.[29]
Effects[edit]
Further information: Causes of the Great Depression
Crowd at New York's American Union Bank during a bank run early in the Great Depression
Together, the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression formed the largest financial crisis of the 20th century.[30] The panic of October 1929 has come to serve as a symbol of the economic contraction that gripped the world during the next decade.[31] The falls in share prices on October 24 and 29, 1929 were practically instantaneous in all financial markets, except Japan.[32]
The Wall Street Crash had a major impact on the U.S. and world economy, and it has been the source of intense academic debate—historical, economic, and political—from its aftermath until the present day. Some people believed that abuses by utility holding companies contributed to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Depression that followed.[33] Many people blamed the crash on commercial banks that were too eager to put deposits at risk on the stock market.[34]
In 1930, 1,352 banks held more than $853 million in deposits; in 1931, one year later, 2,294 banks went down with nearly $1.7 billion in deposits. Many businesses failed (28,285 failures and a daily rate of 133 in 1931).
The 1929 crash brought the Roaring Twenties to a shuddering halt.[35] As tentatively expressed by economic historian Charles P. Kindleberger, in 1929, there was no lender of last resort effectively present, which, if it had existed and were properly exercised, would have been key in shortening the business slowdown[s] that normally follows financial crises.[32] The crash marked the beginning of widespread and long-lasting consequences for the United States. Historians still debate the question: did the 1929 Crash spark The Great Depression,[36] or did it merely coincide with the bursting of a loose credit-inspired economic bubble? Only 16% of American households were invested in the stock market within the United States during the period leading up to the depression, suggesting that the crash carried somewhat less of a weight in causing the depression.
Unemployed men march in Toronto
However, the psychological effects of the crash reverberated across the nation as businesses became aware of the difficulties in securing capital market investments for new projects and expansions. Business uncertainty naturally affects job security for employees, and as the American worker (the consumer) faced uncertainty with regards to income, naturally the propensity to consume declined. The decline in stock prices caused bankruptcies and severe macroeconomic difficulties including contraction of credit, business closures, firing of workers, bank failures, decline of the money supply, and other economically depressing events.
The resultant rise of mass unemployment is seen as a result of the crash, although the crash is by no means the sole event that contributed to the depression. The Wall Street Crash is usually seen as having the greatest impact on the events that followed and therefore is widely regarded as signaling the downward economic slide that initiated the Great Depression. True or not, the consequences were dire for almost everybody. Most academic experts agree on one aspect of the crash: It wiped out billions of dollars of wealth in one day, and this immediately depressed consumer buying.[36]
The failure set off a worldwide run on US gold deposits (i.e. the dollar), and forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates into the slump. Some 4,000 banks and other lenders ultimately failed. Also, the uptick rule,[37] which allowed short selling only when the last tick in a stock's price was positive, was implemented after the 1929 market crash to prevent short sellers from driving the price of a stock down in a bear raid.[38]
Effect on Europe[edit]
The stock market crash of October 1929 led directly to the Great Depression in Europe. When stocks plummeted on the New York Stock Exchange, the world noticed immediately. Although financial leaders in the United Kingdom, as in the United States, vastly underestimated the extent of the crisis that would ensue, it soon became clear that the world's economies were more interconnected than ever. The effects of the disruption to the global system of financing, trade, and production and the subsequent meltdown of the American economy were soon felt throughout Europe.[39]
During 1930 and 1931, in particular, unemployed workers went on strike, demonstrated in public, and otherwise took direct action to call public attention to their plight. Protests often focused on the so-called Means Test, which the government had instituted in 1931 as a way to limit the amount of unemployment payments made to individuals and families. For working people, the Means Test seemed an intrusive and insensitive way to deal with the chronic and relentless deprivation caused by the economic crisis. The strikes were met forcefully, with police breaking up protests, arresting demonstrators, and charging them with crimes related to the violation of public order.[39]
Academic debate[edit]
Economists and historians disagree as to what role the crash played in subsequent economic, social, and political events. The Economist argued in a 1998 article that the Depression did not start with the stock market crash,[40] nor was it clear at the time of the crash that a depression was starting. They asked, "Can a very serious Stock Exchange collapse produce a serious setback to industry when industrial production is for the most part in a healthy and balanced condition?" They argued that there must be some setback, but there was not yet sufficient evidence to prove that it will be long or that it need go to the length of producing a general industrial depression.[41]
But The Economist also cautioned that some bank failures were also to be expected and some banks may not have any reserves left for financing commercial and industrial enterprises. They concluded that the position of the banks is the key to the situation, but what was going to happen could not have been foreseen.[41]
Academics see the Wall Street Crash of 1929 as part of a historical process that was a part of the new theories of boom and bust. According to economists such as Joseph Schumpeter, Nikolai Kondratiev and Charles E. Mitchell, the crash was merely a historical event in the continuing process known as economic cycles. The impact of the crash was merely to increase the speed at which the cycle proceeded to its next level.
Milton Friedman's A Monetary History of the United States, co-written with Anna Schwartz, advances the argument that what made the "great contraction" so severe was not the downturn in the business cycle, protectionism, or the 1929 stock market crash in themselves – but instead, according to Friedman and Schwartz, what plunged the country into a deep depression was the collapse of the banking system during three waves of panics over the 1930–33 period.[42]
See also[edit]
List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Notes[edit]
Jump up ^ Bone, James. "The beginner's guide to stock markets". The Times. London. Archived from the original on May 25, 2010. Retrieved January 29, 2012. The most savage bear market of all time was the Wall Street Crash of 1929–1932, in which share prices fell by 89 per cent.
Jump up ^ "Stock Market Crash of 1929". Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved January 29, 2012.
Jump up ^ "America gets depressed by thoughts of 1929 revisited" The Sunday Times
^ Jump up to: a b Dan Bryan. "The Great (Farm) Depression of the 1920s". American History USA. Retrieved November 10, 2013.
Jump up ^ http://millercenter.org/president/coolidge/essays/biography/8 Archived November 5, 2013, at the Wayback Machine.
^ Jump up to: a b c d e f "Timeline: A selected Wall Street chronology". PBS. Archived from the original on September 23, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2008.
Jump up ^ Teach, Edward (May 1, 2007). "The Bright Side of Bubbles". CFO. Retrieved October 1, 2008.
^ Jump up to: a b Harold Bierman, Jr. (April 1998). The Causes of the 1929 Stock Market Crash: A Speculative Orgy or a New Era?. Greenwood Publishing Group. pp. 19–29. ISBN 978-0-313-30629-7.
Jump up ^ The Great Depression, by Robert Goldston, pages 39–40
Jump up ^ "The Panic of 2008? What Do We Name the Crisis?" The Wall Street Journal
Jump up ^ "Timeline". NYSE Euronext. NYSE. Archived from the original on June 11, 2010. Retrieved October 1, 2008.
^ Jump up to: a b Weeks, Linton. "History's Advice During A Panic? Don't Panic". NPR. Retrieved October 1, 2008.
Jump up ^ "The Crash of 1929". PBS. Retrieved October 1, 2008.
Jump up ^ Salsman, Richard M. "The Cause and Consequences of the Great Depression, Part 1: What Made the Roaring '20s Roar", The Intellectual Activist, ISSN 0730-2355, June 2004, p. 16.
^ Jump up to: a b New York: A Documentary Film PBS
Jump up ^ "Dow Jones Industrial Average All-Time Largest One Day Gains and Losses". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved May 11, 2011.
Jump up ^ "DJIA 1929 to Present", Yahoo! Finance
Jump up ^ "U.S. Industrial Stocks Pass 1929 Peak", The Times, November 24, 1954, p. 12.
Jump up ^ Shann, Edward (November 1, 1929). "Broad Facts of, USA Crisis". The Daily News. Perth, Western Australia. p. 6 (Edition: Home Final Edition). Retrieved November 22, 2012 – via National Library of Australia.
Jump up ^ Lambert, Richard (July 19, 2008). "Crashes, Bangs & Wallops". Financial Times. Retrieved September 30, 2008. At the turn of the 20th century stock market speculation was restricted to professionals, but the 1920s saw millions of 'ordinary Americans' investing in the New York Stock Exchange. By August 1929, brokers had lent small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying on margin – more than $8.5bn was out on loan.
Jump up ^ Facing the facts: an economic diagnosis. Retrieved September 30, 2008.
Jump up ^ Shiller, Robert (March 17, 2005). "Irrational Exuberance, Second Edition". Princeton University Press. Retrieved February 3, 2007.
Jump up ^ Doug Short (April 3, 2013). "The Stock Market's Valuation Rarely Gets This High". Business Insider.
Jump up ^ Galbraith, John Kenneth (1954). "In Goldman Sachs We Trust". The Great Crash, 1929. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. ISBN 0-395-85999-9. , cited in Taibbi, Matt (April 5, 2010). "The great American bubble machine". Rolling Stone. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
Jump up ^ "Grain Plunges". The Courier-Mail. Brisbane, Qld: National Library of Australia. October 26, 1929. p. 19. Retrieved November 22, 2012.
Jump up ^ "Wild Selling. New York Panic". The Sydney Morning Herald. Sydney, NSW: National Library of Australia. October 26, 1929. p. 17. Retrieved November 22, 2012.
Jump up ^ "Second Crash". The Sydney Morning Herald. Sydney, NSW: National Library of Australia. October 30, 1929. p. 17. Retrieved November 20, 2012.
Jump up ^ Selective Service System. (May 27, 2003). Induction Statistics. In Inductions (by year) from World War I Through the End of the Draft (1973). Retrieved September 8, 2013.
^ Jump up to: a b Hyman, Louis (December 16, 2011). "How Did World War II End the Great Depression?: Echoes". Bloomberg. Retrieved August 25, 2015.
Jump up ^ "Paulson affirms Bush assessment", The Washington Times
Jump up ^ Scardino, Albert (October 21, 1987). "The Market Turmoil: Past lessons, present advice; Did '29 Crash Spark The Depression?". The New York Times.
^ Jump up to: a b "Crashes, Bangs & Wallops" Financial Times
Jump up ^ Jameson, Angela (August 10, 2005),"Pyramid structures brought down by Wall Street Crash" The Times, Retrieved March 17, 2010
Jump up ^ "Death of the Brokerage: The Future of Wall Street" National Public Radio
Jump up ^ "Kaboom!...and bust. The crash of 2008" The Times
^ Jump up to: a b "The Market Turmoil: Past lessons, present advice; Did '29 Crash Spark The Depression?" The New York Times
Jump up ^ "Practice has plenty of historical precedents" Financial Times
Jump up ^ "Funds want 'uptick' rule back" Financial Times
^ Jump up to: a b "Context :: European History". www.dhr.history.vt.edu. Retrieved November 4, 2016.
Jump up ^ "Economics focus: The Great Depression", The Economist (September 17, 1998)
^ Jump up to: a b "Reactions of the Wall Street slump", The Economist (November 23, 1929)
Jump up ^ "Panic control" The Washington Times
Further reading[edit]
Axon, Gordon V. The Stock Market Crash of 1929. London, England: Mason & Lipscomb Publishers Inc., 1974.
Bierman, Harold (March 26, 2008). Whaples, Robert, ed. "The 1929 Stock Market Crash". EH.Net Encyclopedia. Santa Clara, California: Economic History Association. Retrieved February 2, 2017.
Brooks, John. (1969). Once in Golconda: A True Drama of Wall Street 1920–1938. New York: Harper & Row. ISBN 0-393-01375-8.
Galbraith, John Kenneth. "1929: New York City." Lapham's Quarterly, no. 2 (Spring 2015): 145–146
Klein, Maury. (2001). Rainbow's End: The Crash of 1929. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-513516-4.
Klingaman, William K. (1989). 1929: The Year of the Great Crash. New York: Harper & Row. ISBN 0-06-016081-0.
Leone, Bruno. The Great Depression: Opposing Viewpoints, 14–25. San Diego, CA: Bender, David L., 1994.
Pendergast, Tom. American Decades: 1920–1929. Farmington Hills, MI: UXL American Decades Publishing, 2003.
Reed, Lawrence W. (1981 & 2008). Great Myths of the Great Depression. Midland, Michigan: Mackinac Center.
Rothbard, Murray N. (2000). America's Great Depression (PDF) (5th ed.). Auburn, Alabama: Ludwig von Mises Institute. ISBN 978-0-945466-05-5. Retrieved May 13, 2010.
Shachtman, Tom. (1979). The Day America Crashed: A Narrative Account of the Great Stock Market Crash of October 24, 1929. New York: G.P. Putnam. ISBN 0-399-11613-3.
Thomas, Gordon and Morgan-Witts, Max. (1979). The Day the Bubble Burst: A Social History of the Wall Street Crash of 1929. Garden City, New York: Doubleday. ISBN 0-385-14370-2.
Watkins, Tom H. The Great Depression: America in the 1930s, 22–55. New York, NY: Little, Brown & Company, 1993.
External links[edit]
Media related to Wall Street Crash of 1929 at Wikimedia Commons
The Crash of 1929, American Experience documentary
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French Quarter
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
This article is about the French Quarter in New Orleans. For other cities with "French Quarter" areas, see French Quarter (disambiguation).
"Vieux Carré" redirects here. For the play, see Vieux Carré (play). For the cocktail, see Carousel Piano Bar & Lounge.
French Quarter
Vieux Carré
New Orleans neighborhood
The French Quarter, looking north with Mississippi River to the right
Country
United States
State
Louisiana
City
New Orleans
Planning District
District 1, French Quarter/CBD
Elevation
3 ft (0.9 m)
Coordinates
29°57′31″N 90°03′54″W / 29.95861°N 90.06500°W / 29.95861; -90.06500Coordinates: 29°57′31″N 90°03′54″W / 29.95861°N 90.06500°W / 29.95861; -90.06500
Area
0.66 sq mi (1.7 km2)
- land 0.49 sq mi (1 km2)
- water 0.17 sq mi (0 km2), 25.76%
Population
3,888 (2010)
Density
7,935/sq mi (3,064/km2)
Mayor
Mitch Landrieu
Timezone
CST (UTC-6)
- summer (DST) CDT (UTC-5)
ZIP Codes
70116 - 70130
Area code
504
Vieux Carre Historic District
U.S. National Register of Historic Places
U.S. National Historic Landmark District
French Quarter: Upper Chartres street looking towards Jackson Square and the spires of St. Louis Cathedral.
Location
New Orleans, Louisiana
Built
1734
Architect
Multiple
NRHP reference #
66000377
Significant dates
Added to NRHP
October 15, 1966[1]
Designated NHLD
December 21, 1965[2]
The French Quarter, also known as the Vieux Carré or the Vieux Carre Historic District, is the oldest section of the city of New Orleans. After New Orleans (La Nouvelle-Orléans in French) was founded in 1718 by Jean-Baptiste Le Moyne de Bienville, it developed around the Vieux Carré ("Old Square" in English), a central square. The district is more commonly called the French Quarter today, or simply "the Quarter," related to changes in the city with American immigration after the Louisiana Purchase.[3]
Most of the extant historical buildings were constructed in either the late 18th century, during the city's period of Spanish rule, or during the first half of the 19th century, after U.S. annexation and statehood. The district as a whole has been designated as a National Historic Landmark, with numerous contributing buildings that are separately deemed significant. It is both a prime tourist destination and attractive for local residents.
Because of its distance from areas where the levees were breached during Hurricane Katrina (2005) as well as the strength and height of the nearest river levees in contrast to other waterway levees or flood walls,[4] Katrina flood damage was relatively light in the Quarter as compared with other areas of the city and the greater region.
Contents
[hide]
1 Geography
1.1 Boundaries
1.2 Adjacent neighborhoods
2 Demographics
3 18th and 19th centuries
4 20th century and beyond
4.1 Effect of Hurricane Katrina
5 Landmarks and attractions
5.1 Restaurants
5.2 Hotels
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Geography[edit]
The French Quarter is located at 29°57′31″N 90°03′54″W / 29.95861°N 90.06500°W / 29.95861; -90.06500[5] and has an elevation of 1 foot (0.3 m).[6] According to the United States Census Bureau, the district has a total area of 0.66 square miles (1.7 km2). 0.49 square miles (1.3 km2) of which is land and 0.17 square miles (0.4 km2) (25.76%) of which is water.
Boundaries[edit]
The most common definition of the French Quarter includes all the land stretching along the Mississippi River from Canal Street to Esplanade Avenue (13 blocks) and inland to North Rampart Street (seven to nine blocks). It equals an area of 78 square blocks. Some definitions, such as city zoning laws, exclude the properties facing Canal Street, which had already been redeveloped by the time architectural preservation was considered, and the section between Decatur Street and the river, much of which had long served industrial and warehousing functions.
Any alteration to structures in the remaining blocks is subject to review by the Vieux Carré Commission, which determines whether the proposal is appropriate for the historic character of the district. Its boundaries as defined by the City Planning Commission are: Esplanade Avenue to the north, the Mississippi River to the east, Canal Street, Decatur Street and Iberville Street to the south and the Basin Street, St. Louis Street and North Rampart Street to the west.[7]
The National Historic Landmark district is stated to be 85 square blocks.[2][8] The Quarter is subdistrict of the French Quarter/CBD Area.
Adjacent neighborhoods[edit]
Further information: Neighborhoods in New Orleans
Faubourg Marigny (east)
Mississippi River (south)
Central Business District (west)
Iberville (north)
Tremé (north)
Demographics[edit]
As of the census of 2000, there were 4,176 people, 2,908 households, and 509 families residing in the neighborhood.[9] The population density was 8,523 /mi² (3,212 /km²).
As of the census of 2010, there were 3,813 people, 2,635 households, and 549 families residing in the neighborhood.[9]
18th and 19th centuries[edit]
Many of the buildings date from before 1803, when New Orleans was acquired by the United States in the Louisiana Purchase, although 19th-century and early 20th-century buildings were added to the area. Since the 1920s, the historic buildings have been protected by law and cannot be demolished; and any renovations or new construction in the neighborhood must be carried out in accordance with city regulations, preserving the historic architectural style.
Elaborate ironwork galleries on the corner of Royal and St. Peter streets
Most of the French Quarter's architecture was built during the late 18th century and the period of Spanish rule over the city, which is reflected in the architecture of the neighborhood. The Great New Orleans Fire (1788) and another great fire in 1794 destroyed most of the Quarter's old French colonial architecture, leaving the colony's new Spanish overlords to rebuild it according to more modern tastes. Their strict new fire codes mandated that all structures be physically adjacent and close to the curb to create a firewall. The old French peaked roofs were replaced with flat tiled ones, and wooden siding was banned in favor of fire-resistant stucco, painted in the pastel hues fashionable at the time. As a result, colorful walls and roofs and elaborately decorated ironwork balconies and galleries, from the late 18th and the early 19th centuries, abound. (In southeast Louisiana, a distinction is made between "balconies", which are self-supporting and attached to the side of the building, and "galleries," which are supported from the ground by poles or columns.)
The balconies and windows are an example of late 18th-century Spanish architecture built after the Great Fires of 1788 and 1794.
When Anglophone Americans began to move in after the Louisiana Purchase, they mostly built on available land upriver, across modern-day Canal Street. This thoroughfare became the meeting place of two cultures, one Francophone Creole and the other Anglophone American. (Local landowners had retained architect and surveyor Barthelemy Lafon to subdivide their property to create an American suburb). The median of the wide boulevard became a place where the two contentious cultures could meet and do business in both French and English. As such, it became known as the "neutral ground", and this name is used for medians in the New Orleans area. Even before the Civil War, French Creoles had become a minority in the French Quarter.[10] In the late 19th century the Quarter became a less fashionable part of town, and many immigrants from southern Italy and Ireland settled there. (In 1905, the Italian consul estimated that one-third to one-half of the Quarter’s population were Italian-born or second generation Italian-Americans.)
20th century and beyond[edit]
In 1917, the closure of Storyville sent much of the vice formerly concentrated therein back into the French Quarter, which "for most of the remaining French Creole families ... was the last straw, and they began to move uptown."[11] This, combined with the loss of the French Opera House two years later, provided a bookend to the era of French Creole culture in the Quarter.[12] Many of the remaining French Creoles moved to the University area.[13]
In the early 20th century, the Quarter's cheap rents and air of decay attracted a bohemian artistic community, a trend which became pronounced in the 1920s. Many of these new inhabitants were active in the first preservation efforts in the Quarter, which began around that time.[14] As a result, the Vieux Carré Commission (VCC) was established in 1925. Although initially only an advisory body, a 1936 referendum to amend the Louisiana constitution afforded it a measure of regulatory power. It began to exercise more power in the 1940s to preserve and protect the district.[15]
The Rue Bourbon, or Bourbon Street, was named for the former ruling dynasty of France.
Meanwhile, World War II brought thousands of servicemen and war workers to New Orleans as well as to the surrounding region's military bases and shipyards. Many of these sojourners paid visits to the Vieux Carré. Although nightlife and vice had already begun to coalesce on Bourbon Street in the two decades following the closure of Storyville, the war produced a larger, more permanent presence of exotic, risqué, and often raucous entertainment on what became the city's most famous strip. Years of repeated crackdowns on vice in Bourbon Street clubs, which took on new urgency under Mayor deLesseps Story Morrison, reached a crescendo with District Attorney Jim Garrison's raids in 1962, but Bourbon Street's clubs were soon back in business.[16]
The Louisiana Supreme Court Building
The plan to construct an elevated Riverfront Expressway between the Mississippi River levee and the French Quarter consumed the attention of Vieux Carré preservationists through much of the 1960s. On December 21, 1965, the Vieux Carre Historic District was designated a National Historic Landmark.[2][8] After waging a decade-long battle against the Vieux Carré Riverfront Expressway that utilized the newly passed National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, preservationists and their allies forced the issue into federal court, eventually producing the cancellation of the freeway plan in 1969.[17]
The victory was important for the preservation of the French Quarter, but it was hardly the only challenge. Throughout the 1960s, new hotels opened regularly, often replacing large sections of the French Quarter. The VCC approved these structures as long as their designers adhered to prevailing exterior styles. Detractors, fearing that the Vieux Carré's charm might be compromised by the introduction of too many new inns, lobbied successfully for passage in 1969 of a municipal ordinance that forbade new hotels within the district's boundaries. However, the ordinance failed to stop the proliferation of timeshare condominiums and clandestine bed and breakfast inns throughout the French Quarter or high-rise hotels just outside its boundaries.[18] In the 1980s, many long-term residents were driven away by rising rents, as property values rose dramatically with expectations of windfalls from the planned 1984 World's Fair.
Effect of Hurricane Katrina[edit]
Main article: Effects of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans
As with other parts of the city developed before the late 19th century, and on higher land predating New Orleans' levee systems, the French Quarter remained substantially dry following Hurricane Katrina. Its elevation is five feet (1.5 m) above sea level.[19] Some streets had minor flooding, and several buildings suffered significant wind damage. Most of the major landmarks suffered only minor damage.[20] In addition, the Quarter largely escaped the looting and violence that occurred after the storm; nearly all of the antique shops and art galleries in the French Quarter, for example, were untouched.[21]
Mayor Ray Nagin officially reopened the French Quarter on September 26, 2005 (almost a month after the storm), for business owners to inspect their property and clean up. Within a few weeks, a large selection of French Quarter businesses had reopened. The Historic New Orleans Collection's Williams Research Center Annex was the first new construction completed in the French Quarter after Hurricane Katrina.[22] In September 2015, SBP (a disaster relief organization that began after the hurricane), broke ground its new headquarters, moving from Chalmette to a 25,000-square-foot former salvage company on Toulouse Street as part of a $7.2 million relocation effort.[23] The organization moved into its new space in May 2016.[24] The building is also serves as the national hub for the Disaster Resilience and Recovery Lab.[23]
Landmarks and attractions[edit]
Restaurants[edit]
The neighborhood contains many restaurants, ranging from formal to casual, patronized by both visitors and locals. Some are well-known landmarks, such as Antoine's and Tujague's, which have been in business since the 19th century. Arnaud's, Galatoire's, Broussard's, and Brennan's are also venerable.
Less historic—but also well-known—French Quarter restaurants include those run by chefs Paul Prudhomme ("K-Paul's"), Emeril Lagasse ("NOLA"), and John Besh. Port of Call on Esplanade Avenue has been in business for more than 30 years, and is recognized for its popular "Monsoon" drink (their answer to the "Hurricane" at Pat O'Brien's Bar) as well as for its food.
The Gumbo Shop is another traditional eatery in the Quarter and where casual dress is acceptable. For a take-out lunch, Central Grocery on Decatur Street is the home of the original muffaletta Italian sandwich.
Hotels[edit]
See also: Canal Street, New Orleans § Hotels
Accommodations in the French Quarter range from large international chain hotels, to bed and breakfasts, to time-share condominiums and small guest houses with only one or two rooms.
The Audubon Cottages are a collection of seven luxuriously-appointed Creole cottages, two of which were utilized by John James Audubon in the early 19th century when he worked in New Orleans for a short time.
The Hotel St. Pierre is a small hotel also consisting of historic French Quarter houses, with a courtyard patio.
The French Quarter is well known for its traditional-style hotels, such as the Bourbon Orleans, Hotel Monteleone (family-owned), Royal Sonesta, the Astor, and the Omni Royal Orleans. These hotels offer prime locations, beautiful views, and/or historic atmosphere.
See also[edit]
New Orleans portal
Buildings and architecture of New Orleans
French Market
French Quarter Festival, early April
Jackson Square
List of streets of New Orleans
Louisiana Creole cuisine
Satchmo SummerFest, early August
List of National Historic Landmarks in Louisiana
National Register of Historic Places listings in Orleans Parish, Louisiana
References[edit]
Jump up ^ National Park Service (2007-01-23). "National Register Information System". National Register of Historic Places. National Park Service.
^ Jump up to: a b c "Vieux Carre Historic District". National Historic Landmark summary listing. National Park Service. Retrieved 2008-01-31.
Jump up ^ New Orleans French Quarter History, Architecture and Pictures
Jump up ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2015-01-30. Retrieved 2015-02-15.
Jump up ^ "US Gazetteer files: 2010, 2000, and 1990". United States Census Bureau. 2011-02-12. Retrieved 2011-04-23.
Jump up ^ "US Board on Geographic Names". United States Geological Survey. 2007-10-25. Retrieved 2008-01-31.
Jump up ^ Greater New Orleans Community Data Center. "French Quarter Neighborhood". Retrieved 2008-06-21.
^ Jump up to: a b Patricia Heintzelman (February 1975). "National Register of Historic Places Inventory-Nomination: Vieux Carré Historic District" (PDF). National Park Service.
^ Jump up to: a b "French Quarter Neighborhood". Greater New Orleans Community Data Center. Retrieved 5 January 2012.
Jump up ^ Ellis, Scott S. (2010). Madame Vieux Carré: the French Quarter in the Twentieth Century. University of Mississippi. p. 7. ISBN 978-1-60473-358-7.
Jump up ^ Madame Vieux Carré, p. 20-21
Jump up ^ Madame Vieux Carré, p. 21
Jump up ^ New Orleans 1900 to 1920 by Mary Lou Widmer. Pelican Publishing: 2007. ISBN 1-58980-401-5 pg 23
Jump up ^ Madame Vieux Carré, p. 24
Jump up ^ Madame Vieux Carré, p. 43
Jump up ^ Souther, J. Mark. "New Orleans on Parade: Tourism and the Transformation of the Crescent City." Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 2013. pp. 41-50.
Jump up ^ Souther, "New Orleans on Parade," pp. 66-71
Jump up ^ Souther, "New Orleans on Parade," pp. 54-63, 203
Jump up ^ "Officials rescue Katrina's survivors amid 'chaos'". Archived from the original on September 11, 2005. Retrieved 2016-01-29. CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link) By Rick Wilking, Wed Aug 31, 2005, retrieved on 2009-11-27.
Jump up ^ FrenchQuarter.com: The Essential Guide to New Orleans' Oldest Neighborhood Archived 2005-11-04 at the Wayback Machine.
Jump up ^ Rosenblatt, Susannah; Rainey, James (September 27, 2005). "Katrina Takes a Toll on Truth, News Accuracy – Los Angeles Times". Los Angeles Times.
Jump up ^ THNOC - WRC Addition
^ Jump up to: a b Shannon, Robin (September 9, 2015). "Disaster recovery nonprofit plans new Mid-City headquarters". New Orleans CityBusiness (LA).
Jump up ^ Hodges, Quincy (May 19, 2016). "St. Bernard Project looks for tenants in new space". New Orleans CityBusiness (LA).
External links[edit]
Wikimedia Commons has media related to French Quarter.
Wikivoyage has a travel guide for French Quarter.
Vieux Carré Commission at the Wayback Machine (archive index) (VCC) (Archive) - City of New Orleans
Harriet Joor: The City of Iron Lace
National Historic Landmarks Program: Vieux Carré Historic District
Vieux Carré:A Creole Neighborhood in New Orleans, a National Park Service Teaching with Historic Places (TwHP) lesson plan
A Travel Description: At Jackson Square in the French Quarter
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