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The Young and the Restless characters (2013)
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The Young and the Restless is an American television soap opera. It was first broadcast on March 26, 1973, and airs on CBS. The following is a list of characters that first appeared on the soap opera in 2013, by order of first appearance. All characters through October are introduced by executive producer Jill Farren Phelps and head writer Josh Griffith;[1] characters after October are introduced by Phelps and head writers Shelly Altman and Jean Passanante.[2]
Contents
[hide]
1 Adriana Stone
2 Marcus Wheeler
3 Gus Rogan
4 Courtney Sloane
5 Melanie Daniels
6 Stitch Rayburn
7 Rose Turner
8 Connor Newman
9 Others
10 Notes
11 References
12 External links
Adriana Stone[edit]
Adriana Stone
The Young and the Restless character
Portrayed by
Jhoanna Flores
Duration
2013
First appearance
January 7, 2013
Last appearance
April 9, 2013
Created by
Josh Griffith
Introduced by
Jill Farren Phelps
Classification
Former, recurring
[show]Family
Brothers
Alex Chavez[3]
Adriana Stone, portrayed by Jhoanna Flores, made her first appearance on January 7, 2013.[4] The news of her casting was confirmed in December 2012 by co-star Robert Adamson, who portrays Noah Newman, on Twitter. He welcomed her to the soap opera, saying that he'll "keep it under wraps for now who she’s playing. But she’s doing a great job."[5][6] CBS Soaps In Depth later announced that Flores would portray Noah's ex-girlfriend, Adriana.[4] Previously, Soap Opera Network's Errol Lewis reported that Flores "has joined the cast in an as yet to be determined role."[5] Flores described her character in an interview, saying "she's bad news" and a "feisty seductress who has her own ideas about what is legal and what isn't." According to the actress, "[Adriana]'s fun to play and I think her relationship with Noah will excite the viewers."[7] In April 2013, within four months of joining the cast, it was announced that Flores had been let go, and had already made her last appearance on April 9.[8][9][10] A spokesperson from the soap opera confirmed that the role would not be recast.[8]
Adriana showed up at Noah's doorstep and threw herself at him, despite the fact that she had cheated on him for someone else. However, she made it clear that she still had feelings for him. She learned that the half a million dollars in cash she sent him has been stolen. Later, Alex Chavez (Ignacio Serricchio), a New York detective who had been hassling Noah with questions about Adriana and the stolen money for months, finds Adriana at the Genoa City Athletic Club and confronts her. She denies knowing anything about the money. In reality, Chloe Mitchell (Elizabeth Hendrickson) and Kevin Fisher (Greg Rikaart) had stolen the stolen money from Noah's house. Alex and Adriana are then revealed to be siblings. After the stolen money mishap is resolved, Adriana is hired by Katherine Chancellor (Jeanne Cooper) as her personal assistant and restarts her relationship with Noah. However, Jill Abbott Fenmore (Jess Walton) believes Adriana is scamming Katherine, and later accuses her of stealing a piece of her jewelry. As a result, Adriana quits working for Katherine. She and Noah begin to discuss moving in together, but she abruptly disappears from Genoa City. Alex later mentions that Adriana is known to run away from serious relationships.
Marcus Wheeler[edit]
Marcus Wheeler
The Young and the Restless character
Portrayed by
Mark Pinter
Duration
2013
First appearance
January 10, 2013
Last appearance
April 12, 2013
Created by
Josh Griffith
Introduced by
Jill Farren Phelps
Classification
Former, recurring
Profile
Occupation
Congressman
[show]Family
Wife
Ann Wheeler (divorced)[11]
Daughters
Stephanie Gayle
Marcus Wheeler, portrayed by Mark Pinter, first appeared on January 10, 2013.[12] Marcus, penned as "a powerful and sophisticated congressman who will go to any lengths to protect his image and career" and "another ruthless politico", would get into business with rivaling business tycoons Jack Abbott (Peter Bergman) and Victor Newman (Eric Braeden).[12] Pinter was previously famed for portraying "slimy senator-turned-mayor" Grant Harrison on the soap opera Another World.[12] Pinter, described by On-Air On-Soaps as playing "slimy bad guy so good that you want to throw something at the TV set", began taping scenes for the soap opera on December 6, 2012.[13] Jillian Bowe of Zap2it called the casting "juicy" and confirmed that Pinter would remain on the show beyond February sweeps.[14] Jill Farren Phelps, executive producer of the soap opera, was responsible for Pinter's hiring on both Another World and General Hospital.[15] It was later announced that Pinter had finished his four-month stint as the character, with his last airdate scheduled for April 12, 2013.[16] Speaking of Phelps hiring him Pinter told Soap Opera Digest that "You get jobs generally because of where you've been and if you're a director or producer, you want to work with people you've worked with before. I'm very appreciative of Jill. She's a woman who has a great allegiance to people and I don't know anybody who has worked with Jill who doesn't have great allegiance to her as well."[15]
In January 2013, Jack Abbott wakes up in his mansion to find a woman named Stephanie Gayle dead in his living room. His colleague Adam Newman (Michael Muhney) helps him realize that Stephanie, a hooker, was hired by Victor Newman to be with Jack so that she would be seen walking out of his house. Victor was scheming to get back his company, Newman Enterprises, which Jack took over. Adam disposes of the body, and Victor later investigates and finds out that Stephanie is Stephanie Wheeler, daughter of Senator Marcus Wheeler. Stephanie died due to overdosing on pills.[17] Victor becomes very concerned, as Marcus is a very powerful man. Wheeler is later revealed to have had an affair with Belinda Rogan, the mother of Leslie and Tyler Michaelson (Angell Conwell and Redaric Williams), who was believed to be murdered by her husband, Gus, as he was convicted for the crime. Victor kept looking to Wheeler's affairs and when he refused to stop, he hired an assassin named Bob to plant a bomb at the Newman ranch while Victor was remarrying Nikki Newman (Melody Thomas Scott). The bomb was defused but Adam was shot, leading Victor to much suspicion that Wheeler was behind the incident. Afterward, evidence surfaced that Wheeler was in fact the one who murdered Belinda and Gus was set free. Wheeler made bail, but Bob later turned on his employer and revealed that Wheeler was the one who hired him to bomb the Newman ranch. He was arrested and sent to prison.
Gus Rogan[edit]
Tony Todd portrays Gus, the estranged father of Leslie and Tyler Michaelson.
Gus Rogan
The Young and the Restless character
Portrayed by
Tony Todd
Duration
2013
First appearance
March 15, 2013
Last appearance
May 7, 2013
Created by
Josh Griffith
Introduced by
Jill Farren Phelps
Classification
Former, recurring
Profile
Home
Genoa City, Wisconsin
[show]Family
Wife
Belinda Rogan (divorced)
Sons
Tyler Michaelson
Daughters
Leslie Michaelson
Gus Rogan, portrayed by veteran actor Tony Todd, made his first appearance on March 15, 2013.[18] Todd had previously confirmed his casting in an interview on February 27.[19] Gus is the estranged father of Leslie and Tyler Michaelson. The casting news went relatively unnoticed until Jillian Bowe of Zap2it linked Todd's interview with Horror Society.[20] The initial casting call described Gus as a "small-time criminal after one of his own children testified against him."[18] Todd stated that the role was something he just couldn't refuse. At the time, Todd had only filmed 4 of the 20 episodes he was originally expected to appear in.[19] Later, Soaps In Depth reported that his run had been lengthened.[18] Todd made his last appearance on May 7, 2013, upon the character's death. Following Todd's departure, Leslie Stevens was cast in the role of Rose Turner, the women from Gus's past who would also shed some light on the blogger targeting Leslie's boyfriend, Neil Winters (Kristoff St. John).[21]
Gus is first mentioned as the incarcerated unnamed father of Leslie (Angell Conwell) and Tyler Michaelson (Redaric Williams). As of January 2013, Gus's case is taken on by the Innocence Foundation because he claims to have been falsely accused. Local attorney, Avery Bailey Clark (Jessica Collins) is assigned as Gus's attorney. Meanwhile, Congressman Marcus Wheeler (Mark Pinter) begins pressuring Tyler and Leslie about coming out of hiding and testifying against their father again to keep him in prison. Tyler and Leslie hate their father for killing their mother, Belinda, but Leslie is too terrified to come out of hiding. As Avery gets closer to getting Gus's conviction overturned, someone attempts to kill her and Leslie believes it is one of Gus's associates. However, thanks to Avery, Leslie begins to think Gus could be innocent. Later, DNA evidence turns up that reveals implicates Wheeler in Belinda's murder, exonerating Gus. He is released from prison and Leslie and Tyler attempt to repair their relationships with their father. Soon after, Gus suffers a heart attack and is hospitalized, while Leslie finds a box with Gus' possessions in it. She finds love letters written to him from a woman named Rose, and when Gus awakens she confronts him over them. He is later discharged from the hospital and returns to Leslie's apartment, where he reveals that Belinda knew about his affair with Rose. Moments later, Gus suffers another heart attack and is pronounced dead by paramedics. Gus is buried in Milwaukee next to Belinda.
Courtney Sloane[edit]
Courtney Sloane
The Young and the Restless character
Portrayed by
Kelli Goss
Duration
2013–15
First appearance
April 10, 2013
Last appearance
August 12, 2015
Created by
Josh Griffith
Introduced by
Jill Farren Phelps
Classification
Former, recurring
Profile
Other names
Farrah
Occupation
Police detective
Jabot Cosmetics Intern
Courtney Sloane, portrayed by Kelli Goss, made her first appearance on April 10, 2013, as the best friend of Summer Newman (Hunter King). Speculation had first arose in September 2012 that Goss could be up for the role of Summer, but the role was given to King. Goss had previously appeared on Hollywood Heights as the friend of King's character.[22] Rumors of Goss's casting circulated in March 2013; CBS Sports listed her as a cast member.[23][24] The casting was later confirmed by Soap Opera Digest.[25] The character has been well received by critics.[26] In April 2015, the actress confirmed her departure from the series. Goss thanked the show for allowing her to portray a role for "the best two weeks that turned into two years." Goss last aired on April 6, 2015.[27][28] Goss temporarily returned in newly-created flashbacks on August 12, 2015.
Initially introduced as Summer's "co-conspirator and confidant", Courtney soon becomes the voice of reason when Summer's life begins falling apart. She gives Summer "level headed advice," and is willing to risk their friendship to make sure Summer is safe. Courtney even impresses Summer's aunt, Abby Newman (Melissa Ordway), during an interview, which leads to her getting an internship at Jabot Cosmetics. In addition, Courtney has a crush on Summer's brother, Noah Newman (Robert Adamson), which eventually develops into a romance.[26] Though it seems Courtney and Noah's relationship is smooth sailing from the beginning, Goss admitted that Courtney is "treading lightly". Speaking of the character's relationship with Noah, the actress stated: "She is an 18-year-old who is freaking out inside."[29] Soap Opera Digest was unfavorable of the series' decision to kill Courtney off, writing: "True, she was a peripheral character but so was Sharon until she married Nick almost 20 years ago (...) The same potential could have been realized for Ms Sloane, a smart and compassionate cop".[30] The magazine also said that Courtney "didn't get the airtime she deserved".[30]
Courtney is Summer's close friend from high school. She helps Summer sneak into a bar by providing her with fake identification so she can impress Kyle Abbott (Hartley Sawyer). Courtney has a crush on Summer's brother, Noah and when Summer runs away, Noah charms Courtney into giving up Summer's location. In September 2013, Noah invites Courtney to a concert and they begin dating. Soon after, Courtney is seen receiving strange text messages and phone calls. Fenmore Baldwin (Max Ehrich) later tells Summer that Courtney does drugs. Summer confronts her friend and asks her why she is so hesitant to share anything about her personal life; Courtney firmly denies that she does drugs. It is eventually revealed that Courtney is actually a cop, who was undercover as a high schooler.
In February 2015, she, along with Noah, Summer, Austin Travers, Kevin Fisher, Mariah Copeland, Fenmore Baldwin and Abby Newman, head to the Abbott cabin for a Valentine's Day celebration. After Fen slips a party drug into the punch bowl, everyone is put to sleep. Everyone wakes up and does not remember anything that happened, and soon discover that Austin is nowhere to be seen. Courtney opens a closet in the cabin, only to find Austin's corpse. She declares him dead immediately, and realizes that he was in fact murdered, having his head smashed in with a bookend. Soon after, herself, along with the rest of the young crowd at the cabin, come up with a plan to cover up the murder, which goes against her duty as a cop. Two months later, Noah proposes to Courtney in Crimson Lights, saying that after all the events that happened to Summer and Austin, he does not want to live a second without her by his side. Courtney happily accepts, and the pair plan their wedding for the following day. After telling the group to meet her at the Abbott cabin, Courtney is found dead in a closet.
Melanie Daniels[edit]
Melanie Daniels, portrayed by Erin Chambers, appeared from June 6 to August 26, 2013.[31][32] Her casting in the role was announced in April, slated to be a paralegal who interacts with the Newman family.[33][34][35] In an interview with Soaps In Depth, Chambers compared Melanie to her previous role, Siobhan McKenna on ABC's General Hospital, stating that the differences between the two characters go "beyond hair color and vocal inflection". She stated: "Melanie's a professional. She's very ambitious. Siobhan was more of a wanderer. She didn't know what she wanted. Melanie is very sure, driven and ambitious."[35] Soaps In Depth also said of Chambers' character, "And seeing how so many characters on Y&R are often in trouble with the law, she should be kept pretty busy, even though the role is currently only recurring."[36] Zap2it told viewers to look for "paralegal Melanie to mix it up with the always-in-need-of-legal-assistance Newman clan".[33] The character and her storyline were critically panned.[37] Upon news of her departure, Jillian Bowe of Zap2it remarked that "prayers have been answered".[37]
Melanie first appears in June 2013 as a paralegal, hired by Avery Bailey Clark (Jessica Collins), to work with Adam and Victor Newman (Michael Muhney and Eric Braeden) at Newman Enterprises. Melanie began to pursue Adam romantically, however, in reality, Victor had ordered her to do so in order to spy on Adam and his business deals. When Adam discovered what Melanie was doing, he agreed to pay her extra to feed Victor false information. Victor saw through Melanie's lies and fired her, followed by Adam ending their romantic affair, despite her saying that she had begun to have genuine feelings for him. Melanie then decides to sue Adam for sexual harassment. Her decision generates much bad publicity for Adam and Newman Enterprises. Before the case can go to court, Adam's ex-wife Chelsea Lawson (Melissa Claire Egan) convinces Melanie that Adam is not worth the lawsuit; she then drops the charges and disappears from Genoa City.
Stitch Rayburn[edit]
Stitch Rayburn
The Young and the Restless character
Portrayed by
Sean Carrigan
Duration
2013–17
First appearance
June 28, 2013
Last appearance
January 18, 2017
Created by
Josh Griffith
Introduced by
Jill Farren Phelps
Classification
Former, recurring
Profile
Other names
Benjamin Russell
Benjamin Rayburn
Occupation
Physician
Chemist
Home
Genoa City, Wisconsin
[show]Family
Father
Richard Russell
Mother
Maureen Russell
Sisters
Kelly Andrews
Wife
Jenna Kieran (divorced)
Abby Newman (2015–16)
Sons
Max Rayburn
Nephews
Sam Andrews
Stitch Rayburn portrayed by Sean Carrigan, made his first appearance on June 28, 2013. His casting in the recurring role was announced in May; he was slated to be an "old army buddy" of Dylan McAvoy (Steve Burton).[38][39] Errol Lewis of Soap Opera Network wrote that the soap opera was "gaining another strong army man".[40] In November, it was announced that Carrigan had been put on contract with the series.[41][42]
Stitch arrives in Genoa City in June 2013 to visit his friend Dylan McAvoy (Steve Burton). Stitch is a doctor and was a part of Dylan's troop when they were in Afghanistan; they were the only two to survive as Stitch had returned home on leave. He is later Dylan's best man when he marries Chelsea Lawson (Melissa Claire Egan), and returns months later to comfort his friend after it is revealed that the child Chelsea was carrying was never Dylan's. Stitch announces he has taken a job at Genoa City Memorial Hospital and moves to town. Stitch then begins to grow close with Victoria Newman (Amelia Heinle), who was having marital problems with Billy Abbott (David Tom) and at the same time, is revealed to know Kelly Andrews (Cynthia Watros) and that he is hiding something about his past; to the point of her calling him a "murderer". Stitch and his wife Jenna then are said to be divorcing and she takes full custody of their son, Max, and moves to Melbourne, Australia, upsetting Stitch. Victoria and Billy separate and she wants to pursue a relationship with him, and they later sleep together. Soon after, Victoria learns she is pregnant but is unsure whether the child is Stitch's or Billy's. On July 22, 2014, it is revealed that Stitch's real name is Ben Russell. In late 2016, Abby Newman (Melissa Ordway) and Stitch divorced after a short marriage. This brought upon Carrigan being bumped to recurring status for lack of storyline.
Rose Turner[edit]
Rose Turner, portrayed by Leslie Stevens, appeared from July 25 to August 8, 2013. Her casting was announced in June; Soaps In Depth wrote of the character: "The mystery woman involved with Leslie and Tyler's dad, Gus and who just may hold the answer to the mystery regarding the online blogger targeting Neil."[43][44] Kambra Clifford of Soap Opera Network wrote: "Fans have been chomping at the bit for more information regarding The Young and the Restless Rose, the mystery woman that Leslie (Angell Conwell) and Tyler’s (Redaric Williams) dad, Gus (Tony Todd), has been dating. Well good news: One more piece of the puzzle has been revealed!" She also told viewers to "watch the craziness begin to unfold when the actress first airs".[45]
Rose was first mentioned when her letters to Gus Rogan (Tony Todd) were found; his daughter Leslie Michaelson (Angell Conwell) was unable to ask for the truth as Gus died soon after. Leslie continued to look into who Rose was, and found out she died in April 2007 and Gus was unaware of her death. Rose then appeared in several flashbacks to Leslie's boyfriend Neil Winters (Kristoff St. John), revealing that he met her in a bar in Evanston. They got drunk and later went to a hotel room, where Rose passed out. Neil left a "do not disturb" sign on the door and left, assuming she would sleep it off. However, Rose in fact died that night, and her daughter Ann Turner is posing as Hilary Curtis (Mishael Morgan) and targeting the Winters family as she blames Neil for her mother's death.
Connor Newman[edit]
Connor Newman
The Young and the Restless character
Portrayed by
Brady and Cooper Friedman
Nolan and Michael Webb
Owen and Henry Leark
Gunner and Ryder Gadbois
Duration
2013–18
First appearance
August 12, 2013
Last appearance
March 2, 2018
Created by
Josh Griffith
Introduced by
Jill Farren Phelps
Classification
Former, recurring
Profile
Other names
Connor Adam Newman
Terrence Connor McAvoy II
[show]Family
Family
Newman
Father
Adam Newman
Mother
Chelsea Lawson
Half-brothers
Johnny Abbott
Christian Newman
Grandfathers
Victor Newman
Jeffrey Bardwell
Grandmothers
Hope Wilson
Anita Lawson
Uncles
Nicholas Newman
Aunts
Victoria Newman
Abby Newman
First cousins
Eve Nicole Howard
Cassie Newman (adoptive)
Noah Newman
Summer Newman
Faith Newman
Reed Hellstrom
Johnny Abbott (adoptive)
Katie Newman
Connor Newman was born onscreen on August 12, 2013.[46] Connor is the son of Adam Newman (Justin Hartley) and Chelsea Lawson (Melissa Claire Egan). He was formerly believed to be the son of Dylan McAvoy (Steve Burton).
Chelsea goes into labor just hours after marrying Dylan who delivers the child before mother and son are taken to the hospital. By the time of Connor's birth, Adam had given up on his belief that he is the child's father. However, Chelsea worried about Dylan asking questions. Connor is named after Dylan's late father, Terrence Connor McAvoy.[47] Adam realizes he is Connor's father after he overhears Dylan tell Billy Abbott (Billy Miller) that Connor may have a genetic eye disorder - Retinitis Pigmentosa. After being examined by an eye specialist, it is determined that Connor suffers from Peters Anomaly, and requires an immediate cornea transplant to save his sight. After Delia Abbott is killed in a hit and run by Adam, her corneas are harvested and transplanted to Connor. The surgery is a success and Connor's eyesight is saved.
Others[edit]
Date(s)
Character
Actor
Information
January 1–11, 2013 Stephanie Gayle Anne Leighton[48] Stephanie first appears as a prostitute hired by Victor Newman (Eric Braeden) to seduce Jack Abbott (Peter Bergman) on New Year's Eve. Stephanie and Jack share a kiss at midnight and she accompanies him back to his mansion. The pill popping Jack wakes up to find Stephanie dead on his living room floor. With assistance from Victor's son, Adam Newman (Michael Muhney), Stephanie's body ends up in an ally An autopsy report reveals she died from a combination of ecstasy and alcohol. Stephanie turns out to be the daughter of congressman, Marcus Wheeler (Mark Pinter) and his wife, Anne. Though Jack eventually confesses, Marcus decides against pressing charges to avoid scandal.
March 5–11, 2013 Terry McAvoy Steve Gagnon Terrence Connor "Terry" McAvoy is the widowed father of Dylan McAvoy (Steve Burton). Terry and his wife, initially raise Dylan in Darien, Connecticut and the family later relocates to Chicago. Terry starts his own construction company; but when Dylan is in college, Terry falls off a ladder and breaks his back forcing Dylan to drop out of college and run the business. Terry is expected to never walk again, but he eventually regains use of his limbs. However, an infection during a surgery leads to a decline in Terry's health forcing him to live with an around the clock nurse. Terry passes away on March 11, 2013 in Genoa City.
April 17–19, 2013 Barry Bruce Weitz[49][50] Barry first appeared at the local restaurant, The Boulevard, recognizing Billy Abbott (Billy Miller) from his gambling days. He offered Billy a game of poker and while he initially refused, some other men at the restaurant joined in and so he changed his mind. Barry was in fact the owner of The Boulevard and Billy ended up winning ownership of the restaurant in the poker game.
April 26–29, 2013 Quinn Victoria Barabas[51] Quinn appeared as a woman who Tyler Michaelson (Redaric Williams) met at a bar, and they later spent the night together.
May 2–October 23, 2013 Sheryl Gordon Shi Ne Nielson[52] Detective Sheryl Gordon debuted as the partner of Detective Alex Chavez (Ignacio Serricchio). Abby Newman (Melissa Ordway), who was dating Alex at the time, was jealous of their close relationship.
May 17–25, 2013 Madame Miranda Ann Magnuson[53] Madame Miranda is a psychic first appearing at a carnival while Chelsea Lawson (Melissa Claire Egan) and Chloe Mitchell (Elizabeth Hendrickson) are visiting. It is later revealed that Adam Newman (Michael Muhney) hired her to get information on the paternity of Chelsea's baby.
May 17–20, 2013 Angie Jona Xiao[54] Angie first appears as a close friend of Summer Newman (Hunter King) at a prom party thrown by the latter. She dares Fenmore Baldwin (Max Ehrich) to kiss Summer, resulting in Kyle Abbott (Hartley Sawyer) punching Fen, upon realizing he has feelings for Summer.
June 10, 2013 – January 17, 2014 Raven Amanda Leighton[55] Raven first appears as a classmate of Fenmore Baldwin (Max Ehrich), who invites him to a graduation party, where they do drugs and talk about their social struggles. She has since been established as a drug dealer, providing Fen and Courtney Sloane (Kelli Goss) with drugs when they want them.
November 8, 2013–February 19, 2014 Richard Womack Myk Watford[56] Womack first appears as a fellow prison inmate to Fenmore Baldwin (Max Ehrich). After Fen's father and former district attorney Michael Baldwin (Christian LeBlanc) is released from prison, Fen can no longer be protected from the other inmates' beatings. Womack gets them to back off before Fen is released, and promises him that Fen can pay him back from the outside. Michael and Fen's mother Lauren Fenmore (Tracey E. Bregman) later receive a cake with the words "Forget Me Not" written in icing, leading Fen to suspect Womack sent it. When Fen is sent back to prison, Womack continues to harass Fen. He robs the Valentine's Day Gala shortly after his prison release, and is shot dead by Colin Atkinson (Tristan Rogers) during a struggle.
December 12, 2013–May 29, 2014 Esmeralda Briana Nicole Henry[57] Esmeralda, a longtime model, interacts with Summer Newman (Hunter King) at a Jabot Cosmetics photo shoot, and afterward offers her the phone number of her drug dealer for energy pills. Esmeralda quickly comes forward when Summer ends up in the hospital from the pills and admits that she gave the energy pills to Summer. In 2014, Esmeralda hooks up with billionaire, Devon Hamilton (Bryton James) at the Valentine's Day gala. They later embark on a relationship, evidently for Devon to suppress his feelings for Hilary Curtis (Mishael Morgan). Devon keeps Esmeralda interested by buying her expensive things with his fortune. After being convinced that the relationship was going nowhere, Devon breaks up with her over the phone and she is not seen again afterward.
Notes[edit]
References[edit]
Jump up ^ Giddens, Jamey (July 26, 2012). "Confirmed: Jill Farren Phelps Named Executive Producer of The Young and the Restless; Josh Griffith in as Head Writer!". Zap2It. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
Jump up ^ White-Nobles, Omar (September 12, 2013). "Shelly Altman, Jean Passanante Named Head Writers of 'The Young and the Restless'". TVSource. SoSource Media. Retrieved November 1, 2013.
Jump up ^ Giddens, Jamey (February 6, 2013). "Alex Reveals His Relationship to Adriana on Y&R: "She's My [SPOILER]". Zap2it. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved February 6, 2013.
^ Jump up to: a b "Comings and goings". CBS Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media Group: 12. December 31, 2012.
^ Jump up to: a b Lewis, Errol (December 10, 2012). "'Y&R' Casts New Female; Ignaccio Serricchio Joins Cast". Soap Opera Network. Manti, Inc. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
Jump up ^ Adamson, Robert (December 7, 2012). "@jhoannamarissa welcome to #YR.. I'll keep it under wraps for now who she's playing. But she's doing a great job!". Twitter. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
Jump up ^ "Talking About a Bad Girl". The Young and the Restless. Sony Pictures Television. December 21, 2012. Retrieved December 21, 2012.
^ Jump up to: a b Kroll, Dan J. (April 11, 2013). "Jhoanna Flores cut from Y&R". SoapCentral. Retrieved April 11, 2013.
Jump up ^ Giddens, Jamey (April 11, 2013). "Jhoanna Flores OUT at The Young and The Restless!". Zap2it. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved April 11, 2013.
Jump up ^ Simms, Richard M. (April 11, 2013). "Confirmed: Y&R's Adriana Out!". Soaps In Depth. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
Jump up ^ February 11, 2013 episode.
^ Jump up to: a b c Logan, Michael (December 5, 2012). "Exclusive: Mark Pinter Joins The Young and the Restless". TV Guide. Lions Gate Entertainment. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
Jump up ^ Fairman, Michael (December 5, 2012). "Mark Pinter Joins The Young and the Restless As Congressman Marcus Wheeler!". On-Air On-Soaps. Michael Fairman Soaps, Inc. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
Jump up ^ Bowe, Jillian (December 5, 2012). "Mark Pinter Joins The Young and the Restless". Zap2it. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
^ Jump up to: a b Giddens, Jamey (December 28, 2012). "Mark Pinter on Y&R Showrunner Jill Farren Phelps: "She's a Woman Who Has a Great Allegiance to People"". Zap2it. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved January 4, 2013.
Jump up ^ Giddens, Jamey (April 5, 2013). "Jaime Lyn Bauer In at Days; Mark Pinter Out at The Young and the Restless!". Zap2it. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved April 11, 2013.
Jump up ^ Young, Candace (January 4, 2013). "Biggest Mistake He Ever Made". She Knows Soaps. soaps.sheknows.com. Retrieved January 4, 2013.
^ Jump up to: a b c "Ins&Outs". Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media Group: 10. March 25, 2013.
^ Jump up to: a b Juvinall, Michael (February 27, 2013). "EXCLUSIVE: INTERVIEW WITH TONY TODD AS HE TALKS 'SUSHI GIRL', NEW 'CANDYMAN' SEQUEL AND MORE!". Horror Society. Horrorsociety.com. Retrieved March 7, 2013.
Jump up ^ Bowe, Jillian (March 7, 2013). "'Candyman' Tony Todd Cast on The Young and the Restless!". Daytime Confidential. Retrieved March 7, 2013.
Jump up ^ "EXCLUSIVE! Meet The Mysterious Rose!". Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media Group. June 12, 2013. Retrieved June 12, 2013.
Jump up ^ "Another HOLLYWOOD HEIGHTS Star To Y&R". Soap Opera Digest. American Media, Inc. September 20, 2012. Retrieved November 22, 2013.
Jump up ^ Andrews, Adena (March 20, 2013). "NCAA brackets: Grammy-nominated artist Wale picks Kansas to win". CBS Sports. CBS Corporation. Retrieved November 22, 2013.
Jump up ^ "RUMOR REPORT: KELLI GOSS to Join "THE YOUNG AND THE RESTLESS"?". The Buzz. March 24, 2013. Retrieved November 22, 2013.
Jump up ^ "YOUNG AND RESTLESS". Soap Opera Digest. American Media, Inc. 38 (16): 10. April 23, 2013. |chapter= ignored (help)
^ Jump up to: a b "Court Advantage". Soap Opera Digest. American Media, Inc. 38 (42): 36. October 21, 2013. |chapter= ignored (help)
Jump up ^ Fairman, Michael (April 7, 2015). "Kelli Goss Says "It's Goodbye For Now" As It's Curtains For Courtney!". On-Air, On-Soaps. United States: Michael Fairman Soaps, Inc. Retrieved April 7, 2015.
Jump up ^ Lewis, Errol (April 7, 2015). ""Goodbye For Now' Says 'Y&R's' Kelli Goss to Fans Read more: 'Goodbye For Now" Says 'Y&R's' Kelli Goss to Fans". Soap Opera Network. United States: Manti, Inc. Retrieved April 7, 2015.
Jump up ^ "Y&R's Noah and Courtney Get Passionate". Soap Opera Digest. American Media, Inc. 38 (48): 9. December 2, 2013. |chapter= ignored (help)
^ Jump up to: a b "Thumbs up! and down!". Soap Opera Digest. American Media, Inc.: 30 May 4, 2015.
Jump up ^ "A New Court Date!". CBS Soaps In Depth. June 17, 2013. p. 13.
Jump up ^ "Chambers Out At Y&R". Soap Opera Digest. American Media, Inc. Retrieved August 26, 2013.
^ Jump up to: a b Giddens, Jamey (April 30, 2013). "EXCLUSIVE: Ex-General Hospital Star Erin Chambers Joins The Young and the Restless". Zap2it. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved April 30, 2013.
Jump up ^ "Erin Chambers Joins Y&R". Soap Opera Digest. American Media, Inc. April 30, 2013. Retrieved May 21, 2013.
^ Jump up to: a b "Soap Snags An ABC Sweetheart!". CBS Soaps In Depth. June 3, 2013. p. 11.
Jump up ^ Simms, Richard M. (April 30, 2013). "Another GH Actor to Y&R!". Soaps In Depth. Retrieved May 21, 2013.
^ Jump up to: a b Bowe, Jillian (August 27, 2013). "Bye, Girl: Erin Chambers Mercifully Departs The Young and the Restless". Zap2it. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
Jump up ^ "Y&R Gets A New Hunk!". Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media Group. May 30, 2013. Retrieved May 30, 2013.
Jump up ^ "EXCLUSIVE! Y&R Casts New Role". Soap Opera Digest. American Media, Inc. May 30, 2013. Retrieved October 1, 2013.
Jump up ^ Lewis, Errol (May 30, 2013). "'Y&R' Gains Another Strong Army Man". Soap Opera Network. Retrieved October 1, 2013.
Jump up ^ Kerr, Luke (November 15, 2013). "Sean Carrigan Lands Contract With The Young and the Restless". Daytime Confidential. Retrieved November 15, 2013.
Jump up ^ Fairman, Michael (November 15, 2013). "More Stitch! Sean Carrigan Lands Contract with The Young and the Restless!". On-Air On-Soaps. Retrieved November 15, 2013.
Jump up ^ Simms, Richard M. (June 12, 2013). "EXCLUSIVE! Meet The Mysterious Rose!". Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media Group. Retrieved July 24, 2013.
Jump up ^ Kerr, Luke (June 13, 2013). "Leslie Stevens Lands Role on The Young and the Restless". Zap2it. Tribune Media Services. Retrieved July 24, 2013.
Jump up ^ Clifford, Kambra (June 13, 2013). "'Y&R' Puts A Face To the Mysterious Rose!". Soap Opera Network. Retrieved July 24, 2013.
Jump up ^ "Oh, Baby!". Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media Group. 17 (34): 11. August 26, 2013. |chapter= ignored (help)
Jump up ^ "LABOR Pains". Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media Group. 17 (34): 26–29. August 26, 2013. |chapter= ignored (help)
Jump up ^ The Young and the Restless characters on IMDb
Jump up ^ Simms, Richard M. (March 11, 2013). "Another GH Actor To Y&R". Soaps In Depth. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
Jump up ^ "ABC Baddie Joins Soap!". CBS Soaps In Depth. April 8, 2013. p. 13.
Jump up ^ "A Lady for Tyler?". CBS Soaps In Depth. May 6, 2013. p. 11.
Jump up ^ "Casting News: New Asian Lady Cop! Shi Ne Nielson". April 27, 2013.
Jump up ^ "EXCLUSIVE: Character Actress Ann Magnuson Books Young and Restless Arc". April 26, 2013.
Jump up ^ "The Young and the Restless Booked!". April 10, 2013.
Jump up ^ "Who Are The New Girls?". CBS Soaps In Depth. June 17, 2013. p. 13.
Jump up ^ Simms, Richard M. (September 23, 2013). "Meet Y&R's New Convict!". Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media. Retrieved January 23, 2014.
Jump up ^ "New Friend For Summer?". Soaps In Depth. Bauer Media Group. November 15, 2013. Retrieved November 15, 2013.
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Predicting the timing of peak oil
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36 Estimates of the year of peak world oil production (US EIA)
Peak oil is the point at which oil production, sometimes including unconventional oil sources, hits its maximum. Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries. The most influential production model is Hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s. As of 2014, it is not widely questioned that oil production will be in decline after 2050.[citation needed] The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial.
Contents
[hide]
1 Present range of predictions
2 Past predictions
2.1 1880s-1940s
2.2 Hubbert's model
2.3 Pessimistic predictions in 2000s
2.4 Optimistic predictions in 2000s
2.5 Energy Information Administration and USGS 2000 reports
2.6 IEA World Energy Outlook
2.7 No peak oil
2.8 Abiogenesis
3 Peak oil for individual nations
4 See also
5 References
6 External links
Present range of predictions[edit]
There was a consensus between industry leaders and analysts that world oil production will peak between 2010 and 2030, with a significant chance that the peak will occur before 2020. Dates after 2030 were considered implausible by some.[1][2] Determining a more specific range is difficult due to the lack of certainty over the actual size of world oil reserves.[3] Unconventional oil is not currently predicted to meet the expected shortfall even in a best-case scenario.[1] For unconventional oil to fill the gap without "potentially serious impacts on the global economy", oil production would have to remain stable after its peak, until 2035 at the earliest.[4]
On the other hand, the US Energy Information Administration projected in 2014 that world production of “total liquids,” which, in addition to liquid petroleum, includes biofuels, natural gas liquids, and oil sands, would increase at an average rate of about one percent per year through 2040 without peaking. OPEC countries are expected to increase oil production at a faster rate than non-OPEC countries.[5]
Given the large range offered by meta-studies, papers published since 2010 have been relatively pessimistic. A 2010 Kuwait University study predicted production would peak in 2014.[6] A 2010 Oxford University study predicted that production will peak before 2015.[7] A 2014 validation of a significant 2004 study in the journal Energy proposed that it is likely that conventional oil production peaked, according to various definitions, between 2005 and 2011. Models which show a continued increase in oil production may be including both conventional and non-conventional oil.[8] A set of models published in a 2014 Ph.D. thesis predicted that a 2012 peak would be followed by a drop in oil prices, which in some scenarios could turn into a rapid rise in prices thereafter.[9]
Phibro statistics show that major oil companies hit peak production in 2005.[10] Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, stated in 2011 that "crude oil production for the world has already peaked in 2006."[11]
Past predictions[edit]
1880s-1940s[edit]
"Petroleum consumption enormous", article in Tractor and Gas Engine Review, 1918.
The idea that human use of petroleum faces sustainability limits attracted practical concern at least as early as the 1880s, as did the related idea that the timing of those limits depends on the extraction technology. The concept of exhausting a natural resource to a point of diminishing returns had some antecedent examples. During the same decades when the modern petroleum industry was launching, the New England whale oil industry had just experienced a peak and was grappling with decline.
Economist and oil analyst Daniel Yergin notes that the first predictions of imminent oil peaks go back to the 1880s, when some American experts believed that exhaustion of the Pennsylvania oil fields would kill the US oil industry. Another wave of peak predictions occurred after World War I.[12]
"... the peak of production will soon be passed, possibly within 3 years. ... There are many well-informed geologists and engineers who believe that the peak in the production of natural petroleum in this country will be reached by 1921 and who present impressive evidence that it may come even before 1920."
- David White, chief geologist, United States Geological Survey (1919)[13]
“The average middle-aged man of today will live to see the virtual exhaustion of the world’s supply of oil from wells,”
- Victor C. Anderson, president of the Colorado School of Mines (1921)[14]
A correspondent named W.D. Hornaday, quoting oil industry executive J.S. Cullinan, described the concerns in a 1918 article for Tractor and Gas Engine Review titled "Petroleum consumption enormous."[15] The article said, "There has been considerable discussion of late as to the possible length of time that the petroleum supply of the United States and the world will hold out."[15] The article quoted Cullinan as saying, "It is just possible, so far as the United States is concerned, that the development and the exhaustion of the supplies may occur within the course of one human life. It is certain that unless radical changes from present methods are applied promptly, all sources of supply within the range of known drilling methods will be exhausted during the life of your children and mine."[15] It turned out that radical changes from 1910s drilling methods were, in fact, applied promptly, and thus, the predicted timeframe was premature; but the underlying concerns (that the vastness of consumption would lead to shortages soon enough to worry about, regardless of the exact decade) did not disappear.
Hubbert's model[edit]
A logistic distribution shaped world oil production curve, peaking at 12.5 billion barrels per year about the year 2000, as originally proposed by M. King Hubbert in 1956
In 1956, M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil to predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1971.[16]
In 1956, Hubbert calculated that the world held an ultimate cumulative of 1.25 trillion barrels, of which 124 billion had already been produced. He projected that world oil production would peak at about 12.5 billion barrels per year, sometime around the year 2000. He repeated the prediction in 1962.[17] World oil production surpassed his predicted peak in 1967 and kept rising; world oil production did not peak on or near the year 2000, and for the year 2012 was 26.67 billion barrels, more that twice the peak rate Hubbert had projected back in 1956.[18]
In 1974, M. King Hubbert predicted that world peak oil would occur in 1995 "if current trends continue."[19] However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped (due to the shift to energy-efficient cars,[20] the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating,[21] and other factors), then rebounded with a lower rate of growth in the mid 1980s. Thus oil production did not peak in 1995, and has climbed to more than double the rate initially projected.
Pessimistic predictions in 2000s[edit]
In 2001, Kenneth S. Deffeyes, professor emeritus of geology at Princeton University, used Hubbert’s theory to predict that world oil production would peak about 2005, with a possible range of 2003 to 2006. He used the observed growth of production plus reserves to calculate ultimate world oil production of 2.12 trillion barrels, noting: "No educated guesses go in." He considered the application of new technology, but wrote: "This much is certain: no initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year." His final conclusion was: "There is nothing plausible that could postpone the peak until 2009. Get used to it."[22] As of late 2009, Deffeyes was still convinced that 2005 had been the peak, and wrote: “I think it unlikely that oil production will ever climb back to the 2005 levels.”[23]
Matthew Simmons said on October 26, 2006 that global oil production may have peaked in December 2005, though he cautioned that further monitoring of production is required to determine if a peak has actually occurred.[24]
2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the former Soviet Union
The July 2007 IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report projected a 2% non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2007-2009, reaching 51.0 kbbl/d (8,110 m3/d) in 2008, receding thereafter as the slate of verifiable investment projects diminishes. They refer to this decline as a plateau. The report expects only a small amount of supply growth from OPEC producers, with 70% of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Angola as security and investment issues continue to impinge on oil exports from Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela.[25]
World proved reserves of crude oil, 1980-2012 (US EIA)
In October 2007, the Energy Watch Group, a German research group founded by MP Hans-Josef Fell, released a report claiming that oil production peaked in 2006 and would decline by several percent annually. The authors predicted negative economic effects and social unrest as a result.[26][27] They stated that the IEA production plateau prediction uses purely economic models, which rely on an ability to raise production and discovery rates at will.[26]
Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini, former head of Saudi Aramco's production and exploration, stated in an October 29, 2007 interview that oil production had likely already reached its peak in 2006,[28] and that assumptions by the IEA and EIA of production increases by OPEC to over 45 kbbl/d (7,200 m3/d) are "quite unrealistic."[28] Data from the United States Energy Information Administration show that world production leveled out in 2004, and an October 2007 retrospective report by the Energy Watch Group concluded that this data showed the peak of conventional oil production in the third quarter of 2006.[26]
ASPO predicted in their January 2008 newsletter that the peak in all oil (including non-conventional sources), would occur in 2010. This is earlier than the July 2007 newsletter prediction of 2011.[29] ASPO Ireland in its May 2008 newsletter, number 89, revised its depletion model and advanced the date of the peak of overall liquids from 2010 to 2007.[30]
Texas alternative energy activist and oilman T. Boone Pickens stated in 2005 that worldwide conventional oil production was very close to peaking.[31] On June 17, 2008, in testimony before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Pickens stated that "I do believe you have peaked out at 85 million barrels a day globally."[32]
The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) reported in late October 2008 that peak oil is likely to occur by 2013. ITPOES consists of eight companies: Arup, FirstGroup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group, Virgin Group, and Yahoo. Their report includes a chapter written by Shell corporation.[33]
In October 2009, a report published by the Government-supported UK Energy Research Centre, following 'a review of over 500 studies, analysis of industry databases and comparison of global supply forecasts', concluded that 'a peak in conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020'.[34] The authors believe this forecast to be valid 'despite the large uncertainties in the available data'.[35] The study was claimed to be the first to undertake an 'independent, thorough and systematic review of the evidence and arguments in the 'peak oil’ debate'.[36] The authors noted that 'forecasts that delay a peak in conventional oil production until after 2030 are at best optimistic and at worst implausible' and warn of the risk that 'rising oil prices will encourage the rapid development of carbon-intensive alternatives that will make it difficult or impossible to prevent dangerous climate change[36] and that 'early investment in low-carbon alternatives to conventional oil is of considerable importance' in avoiding this scenario.[37]
Optimistic predictions in 2000s[edit]
Non-'peakists' can be divided into several different categories based on their specific criticism of peak oil. Some claim that any peak will not come soon or have a dramatic effect on the world economies. Others claim we will not reach a peak for technological reasons, while still others claim our oil reserves are quickly regenerated abiotically.
Monthly world oil supply data from 1995 to 2008. Supply is defined as crude oil production (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, including biofuels, and refinery processing gains.
CERA, which counts unconventional sources in reserves while discounting EROEI, believes that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly.[38] In 2005 the group predicted that "petroleum supplies will be expanding faster than demand over the next five years."[39]
In 2007, The Wall Street Journal reported that "a growing number of oil-industry chieftains" believed that oil production would soon reach a ceiling for a variety of reasons, and plateau at that level for some time. Several chief executives stated that projections of over 100 million barrels (16,000,000 m3) of production per day are unrealistic, contradicting the projections of the International Energy Agency and United States Energy Information Administration.[40]
It has been argued that even a "plateau oil" scenario may cause political and economic disruption due to increasing petroleum demand and price volatility.[41]
Energy Information Administration and USGS 2000 reports[edit]
Peak world oil scenarios by the US Energy Information Administration (2004)
The United States Energy Information Administration projects (as of 2006) world consumption of oil to increase to 98.3 million barrels per day (15.63×10^6 m3/d) in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day (18.8×10^6 m3/d) in 2030.[42] This would require a more than 35 percent increase in world oil production by 2030. A 2004 paper by the Energy Information Administration based on data collected in 2000 disagrees with Hubbert peak theory on several points. It:[43]
explicitly incorporates demand into model as well as supply
does not assume pre/post-peak symmetry of production levels
models pre- and post-peak production with different functions (exponential growth and constant reserves-to-production ratio, respectively)
assumes reserve growth, including via technological advancement and exploitation of small reservoirs
The EIA estimates of future oil supply are disagreed with by Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini, a retired Vice President of Exploration of Aramco, who called it a 'dangerous over-estimate'.[44] Husseini also pointed out that population growth and the emergence of China and India means oil prices are now going to be structurally higher than they have been.
Colin Campbell argued that the 2000 United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates was a methodologically flawed study that has done incalculable damage by misleading international agencies and governments. Campbell dismisses the notion that the world can seamlessly move to more difficult and expensive sources of oil and gas when the need arises. He argued that oil is in profitable abundance or not there at all, due ultimately to the fact that it is a liquid concentrated by nature in a few places that possess the right geological conditions. Campbell believes OPEC countries raised their reserves to get higher oil quotas and to avoid internal critique. He has also pointed out that the USGS failed to extrapolate past discovery trends in the world’s mature basins. He concluded (2002) that peak production was "imminent."[45] Campbell's own record is that he successively predicted that the peak in world production would occur in 1989, 2004, and 2010.[46]
IEA World Energy Outlook[edit]
The 2008 IEA World Energy Outlook suggested that there was sufficient oil supply to meet demand at reasonable prices for the foreseeable future. This was critiqued by K. Aleklett and M. Höök, but their critique has itself been accused of bias towards non-representative depletion rates, with the result that their figures are ill-founded.[47]
No peak oil[edit]
The view that oil extraction will never enter a depletion phase is often referred to as "cornucopian" in ecology and sustainability literature.[48][49][50]
Abdullah S. Jum'ah, President, Director and CEO of Saudi Aramco states that the world has adequate reserves of conventional and nonconventional oil sources that will last for more than a century.[51][52] As recently as 2008 he pronounced "We have grossly underestimated mankind’s ability to find new reserves of petroleum, as well as our capacity to raise recovery rates and tap fields once thought inaccessible or impossible to produce.” Jum’ah believes that in-place conventional and non-conventional liquid resources may ultimately total between 13 trillion and 16 trillion barrels (2,500 km3) and that only a small fraction (1.1 trillion) has been extracted to date.[53]
I do not believe the world has to worry about ‘peak oil’ for a very long time.
—  Abdullah S. Jum'ah, 2008-01[53]
Economist Michael Lynch says that the Hubbert Peak theory is flawed and that there is no imminent peak in oil production. He argued in 2004 that production is determined by demand as well as geology, and that fluctuations in oil supply are due to political and economic effects as well as the physical processes of exploration, discovery and production.[54] This idea is echoed by Jad Mouawad, who explains that as oil prices rise, new extraction technologies become viable, thus expanding the total recoverable oil reserves. This, according to Mouwad, is one explanation of the changes in peak production estimates.[55]
Leonardo Maugeri, the former group senior vice president, Corporate Strategies of Eni S.p.A., dismissed the peak oil thesis in a 2004 policy position piece in Science as "the current model of oil doomsters," and based on several flawed assumptions. He characterized the peak oil theory as part of a series of "recurring oil panics" that have "driven Western political circles toward oil imperialism and attempts to assert direct or indirect control over oil-producing regions". Maugeri claimed the geological structure of the earth has not been explored thoroughly enough to conclude that the declining trend in discoveries, which began in the 1960s, will continue. He also stated that complete global oil production, discovery trends, and geological data are not available globally.[56]
Economist and oil analyst Daniel Yergin criticizes Hubbert peak oil theory for ignoring the effects of both economics and improved technology. Yergin believes that world oil production will continue to rise until “perhaps sometime around mid-century” and then “plateau” or enter a gradual decline. He considers it possible that declining oil production, when it comes, will be caused less by resource scarcity than by lower demand brought about by improved efficiency.[12]
Abiogenesis[edit]
Main article: Abiogenic petroleum origin
The theory that petroleum derives from biogenic processes is held by the overwhelming majority of petroleum geologists. However, abiogenic theorists, such as the late professor of astronomy Thomas Gold, assert that oil may be a continually renewing abiotic product, rather than a “fossil fuel” in limited supply. They hypothesize that if abiogenic petroleum sources are found and are quick to replenish, petroleum production will not decline.[57] Gold was not able to prove his theories in experiments[58]
One of the main counter arguments to the abiotic theory is the existence of biomarkers in petroleum. These chemical compounds can be best explained as residues of biogenic organic matter. They have been found in all oil and gas accumulations tested so far and suggest that oil has a biological origin and is generated from kerogen by pyrolysis.[59][60]
Peak oil for individual nations[edit]
Further information: List of oil fields
Hubbert's upper-bound prediction for US crude oil production (1956), and actual lower-48 states production through 2014
Norway's oil production and a Hubbert curve approximating it.
United Kingdom oil production 1975-2012 (data from DECC)
Canadian conventional oil production peaked in 1973, but oil sands production will increase to at least 2020
Peak Oil as a concept applies globally, but it is based on the summation of individual nations experiencing peak oil. In State of the World 2005, Worldwatch Institute observed that oil production was in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries.[61] Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks.
The following list shows some oil-producing nations and their peak oil production years.[62]
Australia: 2000[6]
Egypt: 1987[63]
France: 1988
Germany: 1966
Iran: 1974
Indonesia: 1991[64]
Libya: 1970 (disputed)[6]
Mexico: 2003
New Zealand: 1997[65]
Nigeria: 1979
Norway: 2000[66]
Oman: 2000[67]
Peru: 1982, with an additional peak possible if the Amazon is drilled[68]
Syria: 1996[69]
Tobago: 1981[70]
UK: 1999
USA: 1970[71]
Venezuela: 1970
An ABC television program in 2006 predicted the following (then) future oil peaks:[72]
Algeria: 2012 (actually peaked in 2006)[73]
Angola: 2010 (actually peaked in 2008)[6][73]
China: 2009 (production continued to rise to 4.29 million barrels per day in 2015, then fell to 3.98 million per day in 2016).[74]
Russia: 2010 (production has continued to rise through 2016).[75]
Peak oil production has not been reached in the following nations (and is estimated in a 2010 Kuwait University study to occur in the following years):[6]
Azerbaijan: 2013 (actually peaked in 2010)[76]
India: 2015 (actually peaked in 2011)[77]
Iraq: 2036
Kazakhstan: 2020
Kuwait: 2033
Saudi Arabia: 2027
Qatar: 2019 (actually peaked in 2007)[78][79]
In addition, the most recent International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration production data show record and rising production in Canada and China.[citation needed] While conventional oil production from Canada is listed as peaking in 1973, oil sands production are expected to permit increasing production until at least 2020 - see also the graph Canadian Oil Production.
See also[edit]
Hubbert's peak
Petroleum
Hubbert linearization
References[edit]
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^ Jump up to: a b c The Energy Watch Group (October 2007). "Crude Oil The Supply Outlook" (PDF). The Energy Watch Group.
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^ Jump up to: a b Dave Cohen (October 31, 2007). "The Perfect Storm". ASPO-USA.
Jump up ^ "Newsletter" (PDF). 85. Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. January 2008.
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Jump up ^ Melvin Jasmin (2008-06-17). "World crude production has peaked: Pickens". Reuters.
Jump up ^ UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security. "The Oil Crunch: Securing the UK’s energy future".
Jump up ^ The Global Oil Depletion Report, October 08, 2009, UK Energy Research Centre
Jump up ^ Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production, page vii, August 2009, published October 08, 2009, UK Energy Research Centre, ISBN 1-903144-03-5
^ Jump up to: a b UKERC Report Finds ‘Significant Risk’ of Oil Production Peaking in Ten Years, October 08, 2009, UK Energy Research Centre
Jump up ^ Global Oil Depletion: An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production, page xi, August 2009, published October 08, 2009, UK Energy Research Centre, ISBN 1-903144-03-5
Jump up ^ "CERA says peak oil theory is faulty". Energy Bulletin. 2006-11-14.
Jump up ^ "One energy forecast: Oil supplies grow". Christian Science Monitor. 2005-06-22.
Jump up ^ Gold, Russell & Ann Davis (2007-11-19). "Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2009-01-28.
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Jump up ^ "Helge Lund: - "Peak Oil" har kommet til Norge ( , StatoilHydro , Olje )". E24.no. Retrieved 2008-11-08.
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External links[edit]
UK Energy Research Centre (2009). "The Global Oil Depletion Report". Retrieved 21 April 2014.
Foucher, Sam (2013). "Peak Oil Update - Final Thoughts". The Oil Drum. Retrieved 21 April 2014.
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