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The Limits to Growth
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The Limits to Growth
The Limits to Growth first edition cover.
Authors
Donella H. Meadows
Dennis L. Meadows
Jørgen Randers
William W. Behrens III
Language
English
Published
1972
Publisher
Potomac Associates - Universe Books
Pages
205
ISBN
0-87663-165-0
OCLC
307838
digital: Digitized 1972 edition
Logo of the Club of Rome.
The Limits to Growth (LTG) is a 1972 report[1] on the computer simulation of exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources.[2] Funded by the Volkswagen Foundation[3] and commissioned by the Club of Rome, the findings of the study were first presented at international gatherings in Moscow and Rio de Janeiro in the summer of 1971.[1]:186 The report's authors are Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, representing a team of 17 researchers.[1]:8
Since its publication, some 30 million copies of the book in 30 languages have been purchased.[4] It continues to generate debate and has been the subject of several subsequent publications.[5] Most recently, The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update was published on June 1, 2004.[6]
Contents
[hide]
1 Purpose
2 Methodology
2.1 Exponential reserve index
3 Conclusions
4 Criticism
5 Positive reviews
6 Legacy
7 Related books
8 Editions
9 See also
10 References
11 External links
Purpose[edit]
In commissioning the MIT team to undertake the project that resulted in LTG, the Club of Rome had two objectives:[1]:185
Gain insights into the limits of our world system and the constraints it puts on human numbers and activity.
Identify and study the dominant elements, and their interactions, that influence the long-term behavior of world systems.
Methodology[edit]
The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the earth and human systems.[7][8] The model was based on the work of Jay Forrester of MIT,[1]:21 as described in his book World Dynamics.[9]
The model was based on five variables: "population, food production, industrialization, pollution, and consumption of nonrenewable natural resources".[1]:25 At the time of the study, all these variables were increasing and were assumed to continue to grow exponentially, while the ability of technology to increase resources grew only linearly.[1] The authors intended to explore the possibility of a sustainable feedback pattern that would be achieved by altering growth trends among the five variables under three scenarios. They noted that their projections for the values of the variables in each scenario were predictions "only in the most limited sense of the word", and were only indications of the system's behavioral tendencies.[10] Two of the scenarios saw "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by the mid- to latter-part of the 21st century, while a third scenario resulted in a "stabilized world".[11]:11
Exponential reserve index[edit]
The planet earth is a finite system, which means it has limited or finite resources
A key idea in The Limits to Growth is the notion that if the rate of resource use is increasing, the amount of reserves cannot be calculated by simply taking the current known reserves and dividing by the current yearly usage, as is typically done to obtain a static index. For example, in 1972, the amount of chromium reserves was 775 million metric tons, of which 1.85 million metric tons were mined annually. The static index is 775/1.85=418 years, but the rate of chromium consumption was growing at 2.6 percent annually, or exponentially.[1]:54–71 If instead of assuming a constant rate of usage, the assumption of a constant rate of growth of 2.6 percent annually is made, the resource will instead last
ln  ( 1 + 0.026 × 418 ) 0.026 ≈ 95 years {\displaystyle {\frac {\ln(1+0.026\times 418)}{0.026}}\approx {\text{95 years}}}
In general, the formula for calculating the amount of time left for a resource with constant consumption growth is:[12]
y = ln  ( ( r × s ) + 1 ) r {\displaystyle y={\frac {\ln((r\times s)+1)}{r}}}
where:
y = years left;
r = 0.026, the continuous compounding growth rate (2.6%).
s = R/C or static reserve.
R = reserve;
C = (annual) consumption.
The authors list a number of similar exponential indices comparing current reserves to current reserves multiplied by a factor of five:
Years
Resource
Consumption, annual growth rate
Static index
Exponential index
5x reserves exponential index
Chromium 2.6% 420 95 154
Gold 4.1% 11 9 29
Iron 1.8% 240 93 173
Petroleum 3.9% 31 20 50
The static reserve numbers assume that the usage is constant, and the exponential reserve assumes that the growth rate is constant.
The exponential index has been interpreted as a prediction of the number of years until the world would "run out" of various resources, both by environmentalist groups calling for greater conservation and restrictions on use, and by skeptics criticizing the index when supplies failed to run out.[13][14][15][16] What The Limits to Growth actually has is the above table, which has the current reserves (that is no new sources of oil are found) for oil running out in 1992 assuming constant exponential growth. In Limits to Growth: The Thirty Year Update there are several pages explaining that new resources are found over time and that the current reserves therefore change but that ultimately resources are finite. (Earlier editions did explain this as well, but not in as much detail.) The standard model includes a resource base of double that of what they have calculated, but the book includes model runs where the assumed resources are infinite, but those model runs still result in overshoot and collapse from other factors.
Conclusions[edit]
After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team came to the following conclusions:[1]:23–24
Given business as usual, i.e., no changes to historical growth trends, the limits to growth on earth would become evident by 2072, leading to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity".
Growth trends existing in 1972 could be altered so that sustainable ecological and economic stability could be achieved.
The sooner the world's people start striving for the second outcome above, the better the chance of achieving it.
Criticism[edit]
Criticism of LTG was immediate. Peter Passell and two co-authors published a 2 April 1972 article in the New York Times describing LTG as "...an empty and misleading work .... best summarized ... as a rediscovery of the oldest maxim of computer science: Garbage In, Garbage Out." Passell found the study's simulations to be simplistic, while assigning little value to the role of technological progress in solving the problems of resource depletion, pollution, and food production. They charged that all LTG simulations ended in collapse, predicted the imminent end of irreplaceable resources, and, finally, that the entire endeavor was motivated by a hidden agenda: to halt growth in its tracks.[17]
In 1973, a group of researchers at the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex, published Models of Doom; A Critique of The Limits to Growth. The Sussex group examined the structure and assumptions of the MIT models. They concluded that the simulations were very sensitive to a few key assumptions and suggest that the MIT assumptions were unduly pessimistic. The Sussex scientists concluded that the MIT methodology, data, and projections were faulty and do not accurately reflect reality.[18] Claiming that the Sussex critics applied "micro reasoning to macro problems", the LTG team, in "A Response to Sussex", described and analyzed five major areas of disagreement between themselves and the Sussex authors.[19]
The report has been criticized by academics, economists and businessmen.[20][21] Critics claimed that history proved the projections to be incorrect, which was specifically based on the popular belief that The Limits to Growth predicted resource depletion and associated economic collapse by the end of the 20th century.[22]:23 The Limits to Growth faced ridicule as early as the 1970s.[23][24] Attacks were made on the methodology, the computer, the conclusions, the rhetoric and the people behind the project.[25] Yale economist Henry C. Wallich agreed that growth could not continue indefinitely, but that a natural end to growth was preferable to intervention. Wallich stated that technology could solve all the problems the report was concerned about, but only if growth continued apace. By stopping growth too soon, Wallich warned, the world would be "consigning billions to permanent poverty".[25]
Julian Simon, a professor at the Universities of Illinois and, later, Maryland, argued that the fundamental underlying concepts of the LTG scenarios were faulty, because the very idea of what constitutes a "resource" varies over time. For instance, wood was the primary shipbuilding resource until the 1800s, and there were concerns about prospective wood shortages from the 1500s on. But then boats began to be made of iron, later steel, and the shortage issue disappeared. Simon argued in his book The Ultimate Resource that human ingenuity creates new resources as required from the raw materials of the universe. For instance, copper will never "run out". History demonstrates that as it becomes scarcer its price will rise and more will be found, more will be recycled, new techniques will use less of it, and at some point a better substitute will be found for it altogether.[26] His book was revised and reissued in 1996 as The Ultimate Resource 2.[27]
Robert Solow from MIT argued that prediction in The Limits to Growth was based on a weak foundation of data. Allen Kneese and Ronald Riker of Resources for the Future (RFF) stated, "The authors load their case by letting some things grow exponentially and others not. Population, capital and pollution grow exponentially in all models, but technologies for expanding resources and controlling pollution are permitted to grow, if at all, only in discrete increments."[citation needed]
Critics also argue that the authors of the report claimed to accept that the then-known resources of minerals and energy could, and would, grow in the future, and consumption growth rates could also decline. The theoretical expiry time for each resource would therefore need to be updated as new discoveries, technologies and trends came to light. Writing in Forbes, one critic pointed out that "...while we do indeed face hard limits to the availability of metals and or minerals these hard limits are so far away that they're not...something we should worry about..." and that "...everything is substitutable. Absolutely everything is, no exceptions." Thus substituting metals and minerals for fossil fuels is the very basis of renewable energy.[28]
By "...the 1990s LTG had become everyone's laughing stock....In short, Chicken Little with a computer."[29] In 1997, the Italian economist Giorgio Nebbia, observed that the negative reaction to the LTG study came from at least four sources: those who saw the book as a threat to their business or industry; professional economists, who saw LTG as an uncredentialed encroachment on their professional perquisites; the Catholic church, which bridled at the suggestion that overpopulation was one of mankind's major problems; finally, the political left, which saw the LTG study as a scam by the elites designed to trick workers into believing that a proletarian paradise was a pipe dream.[29]
Positive reviews[edit]
With few exceptions, economics as a discipline has been dominated by a perception of living in an unlimited world, where resource and pollution problems in one area were solved by moving resources or people to other parts. The very hint of any global limitation as suggested in the report The Limits to Growth was met with disbelief and rejection by businesses and most economists. However, this conclusion was mostly based on false premises.
– Meyer & Nørgård (2010).
In the early years of the 21st century, the tide of opinion regarding LTG began to swing in a positive direction.[29] Reading LTG for the first time in 2000, influential energy economist Matthew Simmons concluded his views on the report by saying, "In hindsight, The Club of Rome turned out to be right. We simply wasted 30 important years ignoring this work."[30]
In 2008, Graham Turner of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) found that the observed historical data from 1970 to 2000 closely match the simulated results of the "standard run" limits of growth model for almost all the outputs reported. "The comparison is well within uncertainty bounds of nearly all the data in terms of both magnitude and the trends over time." Turner also examined a number of reports, particularly by economists, which over the years have purported to discredit the limits-to-growth model. Turner says these reports are flawed, and reflect misunderstandings about the model.[11]:37
In 2010, Nørgård, Peet and Ragnarsdóttir called the book a "pioneering report", and said that it "has withstood the test of time and, indeed, has only become more relevant."[4]
In 2014, The Guardian published an article showing that data collected since LTG's publication in 1972 supports the accuracy of the 1972 projections.[31]
Christian Parenti, writing in 2012, sees parallels between the reception of LTG and the contemporary climate debate, "That said, The Limits to Growth was a scientifically rigorous and credible warning that was actively rejected by the intellectual watchdogs of powerful economic interests. A similar story is playing out now around climate science."[32]
Legacy[edit]
The Club of Rome has persisted after The Limits of Growth and has generally provided comprehensive updates to the book every five years.
An independent retrospective on the public debate over The Limits to Growth concluded in 1978 that optimistic attitudes had won out, causing a general loss of momentum in the environmental movement. While summarizing a large number of opposing arguments, the article concluded that "scientific arguments for and against each position ... have, it would seem, played only a small part in the general acceptance of alternative perspectives."[33]
In 1989, a symposium was held in Hanover, Lower Saxony, entitled "Beyond the Limits to Growth: Global Industrial Society, Vision or Nightmare?" In 1993, Beyond the Limits was published as a 20-year update on the original material. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update was published in 2004.
In 2008, Graham Turner at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia published a paper called "A Comparison of 'The Limits to Growth' with Thirty Years of Reality".[11] It compared the past thirty years of data with the scenarios laid out in the 1972 book and found that changes in industrial production, food production, and pollution are all congruent with one of the book's three scenarios—that of "business as usual". This scenario in Limits points to economic and societal collapse in the 21st century.[34] In 2010, Nørgård, Peet, and Ragnarsdóttir called the book a "pioneering report". They said that, "its approach remains useful and that its conclusions are still surprisingly valid ... unfortunately the report has been largely dismissed by critics as a doomsday prophecy that has not held up to scrutiny."[4]
Also in 2008, researcher Peter A. Victor wrote, that even though the Limits team probably underestimated price mechanism's role in adjusting outcomes, their critics have overestimated it. He states that Limits to Growth has had a significant impact on the conception of environmental issues and notes that the models in the book were meant to be taken as predictions "only in the most limited sense of the word".[10]
In a 2009 article published in American Scientist titled "Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil", Hall and Day noted that "the values predicted by the limits-to-growth model and actual data for 2008 are very close."[35] These findings are consistent with the 2008 CSIRO study which concluded: "The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compares favorably with key features ... [of the Limits to Growth] "standard run" scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st Century."[11]
Researchers from China and Indonesia with Dennis Meadows
In 2011, Ugo Bardi published a book-length academic study of The Limits to Growth, its methods and historical reception and concluded that "The warnings that we received in 1972 ... are becoming increasingly more worrisome as reality seems to be following closely the curves that the ... scenario had generated."[36]:3 A popular analysis of the accuracy of the report by science writer Richard Heinberg was also published.[37]
In 2012, the Smithsonian Institution held a symposium entitled "Perspectives on Limits to Growth".[38] Another symposium was held in Hanover, Germany entitled "Already Beyond?"[39]
Limits to Growth did not receive an official update in 2012, but one of its coauthors, Jørgen Randers, published a book, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years.[40][41]
In 2012, writing in American Scientist, Brian Hayes stated that the model is "more a polemical tool than a scientific instrument". He went on to say that the graphs generated by the computer program should not, as the authors note, be used as predictions.[42]
In 2014, Graham Turner concluded that "preparing for a collapsing global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse."[43]
In 2016, a report published by the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on Limits to Growth concluded that "there is unsettling evidence that society is still following the 'standard run' of the original study – in which overshoot leads to an eventual collapse of production and living standards".[44] The report also points out that some issues not fully addressed in the original 1972 report, such as climate change, present additional challenges for human development.
Related books[edit]
Many books about humanity's uncertain future have appeared regularly over the years. Precursors to Limits to Growth included Thomas Malthus's An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), Harrison Brown's The Challenge of Man's Future (1956), Rachel Carson's Silent Spring (1962) and Paul R. Ehrlich's The Population Bomb (1968).[45] Some of the notable books published after 1972 include the State of the World reports issued by the Worldwatch Institute (produced annually since 1984); the influential Our Common Future, published by the UN’s World Commission on Environment and Development (1987); Earth in the Balance, written by then-US senator Al Gore (1992); and Earth Odyssey by journalist Mark Hertsgaard (1999).[45]
Editions[edit]
ISBN 0-87663-165-0, 1972 first edition (digital version)
ISBN 0-87663-222-3, 1974 second edition (cloth)
ISBN 0-87663-918-X, 1974 second edition (paperback)
Meadows, Donella; Randers, Jorgen; Meadows, Dennis (June 2004). Limits To Growth: The 30-Year Update (Paperback ed.). Chelsea Green Publishing. ISBN 193149858X. Retrieved 1 December 2017.
Meadows, Donella; Randers, Jorgen; Meadows, Dennis (March 2005). Limits To Growth: The 30-Year Update (Hardcover ed.). Chelsea Green Publishing. ISBN 1931498512. Retrieved 1 December 2017.
See also[edit]
Attractiveness principle
Albert Allen Bartlett
Cornucopian
Donella Meadows' twelve leverage points to intervene in a system
DYNAMO (programming language)
Degrowth
Ecological economics
Economic growth
Energy crisis
Energy development
Garbage in, garbage out
Genetic bottleneck
Hubbert peak theory
Jevons's paradox
List of environmental books
Malthusian catastrophe
Negative Population Growth
Overpopulation
Peak oil
Planetary boundaries
Population Connection (formerly 'Zero Population Growth')
Post-growth
Productivism
Richard Rainwater
Julian L. Simon
Societal collapse
Steady-state economy
System dynamics
The Global 2000 Report to the President
The Coal Question
The Population Bomb
The Revenge of Gaia
References[edit]
^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i Meadows, Donella H; Meadows, Dennis L; Randers, Jørgen; Behrens III, William W (1972). The Limits to Growth; A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind (PDF). New York: Universe Books. ISBN 0876631650. Retrieved 26 November 2017.
Jump up ^ MacKenzie, Debora (4 January 2012). "Boom and doom: Revisiting prophecies of collapse". New Scientist. Retrieved 2017-11-28.
Jump up ^ "Symposium: Already Beyond? - 40 Years Limits to Growth". Volkswagen Stiftung. 28 November 2012. Retrieved 2017-11-28.
^ Jump up to: a b c Nørgård, Jørgen Stig; Peet, John; Ragnarsdóttir, Kristín Vala (March 2010). "The History of The Limits to Growth". The Solutions Journal. 1 (2): 59–63. Retrieved 1 July 2014.
Jump up ^ Farley, Joshua C. "The Limits to growth debate". The University of Vermont. Retrieved 1 December 2017.
Jump up ^ Meadows, Donella H.; Randers, Jorgen; Meadows, Dennis L. (2004). The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. White River Junction VT: Chelsea Green Publishing Co. ISBN 1931498512. Retrieved 27 November 2017.
Jump up ^ The models were run on DYNAMO, a simulation programming language.
Jump up ^ Edwards, Paul N. (2010) A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming MIT Press ISBN 9780262290715 pp. 366–71
Jump up ^ Forrester, Jay Wright (1971). World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press. ISBN 0262560186.
^ Jump up to: a b Peter A. Victor (2008). Managing Without Growth, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 92–93, ISBN 978-1-84720-078-5
^ Jump up to: a b c d Turner, Graham (2008). "A Comparison of 'The Limits to Growth' with Thirty Years of Reality". Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED). CSIRO Working Paper Series. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). 2008-09: 52. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.05.001. ISSN 1834-5638. Retrieved 1 July 2014.
Jump up ^ Limits To Growth, pg 60, Derivation: R = ∫ 0 y C e ρ t d t = C ρ ( e ρ y − 1 ) {\displaystyle R=\int _{0}^{y}Ce^{\rho t}\ dt={\frac {C}{\rho }}\left(e^{\rho y}-1\right)} reverts to y = ln  ( 1 + ρ R C ) ρ . {\displaystyle y={\frac {\ln \left(1+\rho {\frac {R}{C}}\right)}{\rho }}.}
Jump up ^ The Skeptical Environmentalist, p. 121[not in citation given]
Jump up ^ Chapter 17: Growth and Productivity-The Long-Run Possibilities Archived 2010-12-18 at the Wayback Machine.
Jump up ^ "Treading lightly". The Economist. 19 September 2002. Archived from the original on 12 November 2007.
Jump up ^ Bailey, Ronald (4 February 2004). "Science and Public Policy". Reason. Retrieved 26 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Passell, Peter; Roberts, Marc; Ross, Leonard (1972-04-02). "The Limits to Growth". New York Times. Retrieved 2 December 2017.
Jump up ^ Cole, H. S. D.; Freeman, Christopher; Jahoda, Marie; Pavitt, K. L. R., eds. (1 April 1973). Models of Doom: A Critique of the Limits to Growth (1st, hardcover ed.). Universe Publishing. ISBN 0876631847. Retrieved 2 December 2017.
Jump up ^ Meadows, Donella H; Meadows, Dennis L; Randers, Jørgen; Behrens III, William W (February 1973). "A response to Sussex". Futures. 5 (1): 135–152. doi:10.1016/0016-3287(73)90062-1. Retrieved 2 December 2017.
Jump up ^ Meyer, N.I.; Nørgård, J.S. (2010). Policy Means for Sustainable Energy Scenarios (abstract) (PDF). Denmark: International Conference on Energy, Environment and Health – Optimisation of Future Energy Systems. pp. 133–137. Retrieved 27 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Cole, H S D (1973). Models of Doom: A Critique of The Limits to Growth. Universe Books. ISBN 0876639058. Retrieved 27 November 2017.
Jump up ^ van Vuuren, D. P.; Faber, A (2009). Growing within Limits – A Report to the Global Assembly 2009 of the Club of Rome (PDF). Bilthoven: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. ISBN 9789069602349. Retrieved 27 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Kaysen, Carl (1972). "The Computer That Printed out W*O*L*F*". Foreign Affairs. 50 (4): 660–668. doi:10.2307/20037939. JSTOR 20037939. Retrieved 2017-11-28.
Jump up ^ Solow, Robert M. (1973). "Is the End of the World at Hand?". Challenge. 16 (1): 39–50. doi:10.1080/05775132.1973.11469961. JSTOR 40719094. Retrieved 2017-11-28.
^ Jump up to: a b Alan Atkisson (2010). Believing Cassandra: How to be an Optimist in a Pessimist's World, Earthscan, p. 13.
Jump up ^ Simon, Julian (August 1981). The Ultimate Resource (Hardcover ed.). Princeton: Princeton University Press. ISBN 069109389X. Retrieved 6 December 2017.
Jump up ^ Simon, Julian L (1996). The Ultimate Resource 2 (Paperback ed.). Princeton: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0691042691. Retrieved 6 December 2017.
Jump up ^ Worstall, Tim (2012-04-09). "The Club of Rome's Limits to Growth Updated: Entirely Bizarre". Forbes. Retrieved 30 November 2017.
^ Jump up to: a b c Bardi, Ugo (9 March 2008). "Cassandra's Curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized". The Oil Drum: Europe. Retrieved 1 December 2017.
Jump up ^ Simmons, Matthew R. (October 2000). "Revisiting The Limits to Growth: Could the Club of Rome Have Been Correct After All?" (PDF). Mud City Press. Retrieved 29 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Turner, Graham; Alexander, Cathy (2 September 2014). "Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Parenti, Christian (5 December 2012). "'The Limits to Growth': A Book That Launched a Movement". The Nation (24-31 December 2012 issue). Retrieved 30 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Sandbach, Francis (1 November 1978). "The Rise and Fall of the Limits to Growth Debate". Social Studies of Science. 8 (4): 495–520. doi:10.1177/030631277800800404.
Jump up ^ "Prophesy of economic collapse 'coming true'", by Jeff Hecht, New Scientist, 17 November 2008
Jump up ^ Hall, Charles A. S.; John W. Day (May–June 2009). "Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil" (PDF). American Scientist. Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society/State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry. 97: 230–237. doi:10.1511/2009.78.230. Retrieved 1 July 2014.
Jump up ^ Bardi, Ugo (2011). The Limits to Growth Revisited. New York: Springer. ISBN 9781441994158. Retrieved 27 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Heinberg, Richard (2011). The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality (3rd printing ed.). Gabriola Island, BC: New Society Publishers. ISBN 0865716951.
Jump up ^ "Perspectives on Limits to Growth: Challenges to Building a Sustainable Planet" (PDF). Smithsonian Institution. Smithsonian Institution—Club of Rome. 2012-03-01. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
Jump up ^ "Documentation: "Already Beyond? - 40 Years Limits to Growth"". Volkswagen Stiftung. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Randers, Jorgen (June 2012). 2052. A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing Co. ISBN 1603584218.
Jump up ^ "2052. A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years". 2052. A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
Jump up ^ Brian Hayes (May–June 2012). "Computation and the Human Predicament – The Limits to Growth and the Limits to Computer Modeling". American Scientist. doi:10.1511/2012.96.186.
Jump up ^ Turner, Graham (August 2014). Rickards, Lauren, ed. "Is Global Collapse Imminent?" (PDF). sustainable.unimelb.edu.au (Research Paper No. 4). MSSI Research Papers. Melbourne, Australia: Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne. p. 16. ISBN 978-0-7340-4940-7. Retrieved 2014-10-19. Regrettably, the alignment of data trends with the LTG dynamics indicates that the early stages of collapse could occur within a decade, or might even be underway. This suggests, from a rational risk-based perspective, that we have squandered the past decades, and that preparing for a collapsing global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse.
Jump up ^ Jackon, Tim; Webster, Robin (April 2016). Limits Revisited: A Review of the Limits to Growth Debate (PDF) (Report). London: All-Party Parliamentary Group on Limits to Growth. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
^ Jump up to: a b Alan Atkisson (2010). "Believing Cassandra: How to be an Optimist in a Pessimist's World", Earthscan, pp. 17–18.
External links[edit]
Wikimedia Commons has media related to The Limits to Growth.
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The Limits to Growth 1972 edition, licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial license
Smithsonian: 40 years Limits of Growth on YouTube
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text:
List of poker hands
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
An ace-high straight flush, commonly known as a royal flush, is the best possible hand in many variants of poker.
In poker, players construct sets of five playing cards, called hands, according to the rules of the game being played.[1] Each hand has a rank, which is compared against the ranks of other hands participating in the showdown to determine who wins the pot.[2] In high games, like Texas hold 'em and seven-card stud, the highest-ranking hands win. In low games, like razz, the lowest-ranking hands win. In high-low split games, both the highest-ranking and lowest-ranking hands win, though different rules are used to rank the high and low hands.[3][4]
Each hand falls into a hand-ranking category determined by the patterns formed by its cards. Hands in a higher-ranking category always rank higher than hands in a lower-ranking category. Hands in the same category are ranked relative to each other by comparing the ranks of their respective cards.[5] Suits are not ranked in poker, so hands in the same category that differ by suit alone are of equal rank.[6] Cards in poker are ranked, from highest to lowest: A, K, Q, J, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2.[7] However, aces have the lowest rank under high rules when forming part of a five-high straight or straight flush, or when playing ace-to-five low or ace-to-six low rules.[8][9]
There are nine hand-ranking categories when using a standard 52-card deck, except under ace-to-five low rules where straights, flushes and straight flushes are not recognized. An additional category, five of a kind, is introduced when using one or more wild cards. The fewer hands a category contains, the higher its rank.[10] There are 311,875,200 ways to deal five cards from the deck but only 2,598,960 distinct hands, because the order in which cards are dealt or arranged in a hand does not matter.[11] Moreover, since hands differing only by suit are of equal rank, there are only 7,462 distinct hand ranks when using nine hand categories.[12][13]
Contents
[hide]
1 Hand-ranking categories
1.1 Five of a kind
1.2 Straight flush
1.3 Four of a kind
1.4 Full house
1.5 Flush
1.6 Straight
1.7 Three of a kind
1.8 Two pair
1.9 One pair
1.10 High card
2 See also
3 References
4 External links
Hand-ranking categories[edit]
* Only possible when using one or more wild cards
** Category does not exist under ace-to-five low rules
Rank
Name
Example
0 Five of a kind*
1 Straight flush**
2 Four of a kind
3 Full house
4 Flush**
5 Straight**
6 Three of a kind
7 Two pair
8 One pair
9 High card
Five of a kind[edit]
Five of a kind, aces
Five of a kind is a poker hand containing five cards of the same rank, such as 3♥ 3♦ 3♣ 3♠ 3 ("five of a kind, threes"). It ranks above a straight flush but is only possible when using one or more wild cards, as there are only four cards of each rank in a standard 52-card deck.[8] A five of a kind becomes possible when a joker is added to the deck as a bug, a form of wild card that may either act as a fifth ace or be used to complete any straight, flush or straight flush. Under these rules, the only possible five of a kind is five aces, A♥ A♦ A♣ A♠ Jkr.[7] Other wild card rules allow jokers or other designated wild cards to represent any card in the deck, enabling the formation of five of a kind of any rank.[citation needed]
Each five of a kind is ranked by the rank of its quintuplet. For example, Q♠ Q♥ Q♣ Q♦ Q ranks higher than 6♣ 6♠ 6♦ 6♥ 6.[8][14]
Straight flush[edit]
"Straight flush" redirects here. For other uses, see Straight flush (disambiguation).
A jack-high straight flush
A straight flush is a poker hand containing five cards of sequential rank, all of the same suit, such as Q♥ J♥ 10♥ 9♥ 8♥ (a "queen-high straight flush").[4] It ranks below five of a kind and above four of a kind.[7] As part of a straight flush, an ace can rank either above a king or below a two, depending on the rules of the game. Under high rules, an ace can rank either high (e.g. A♥ K♥ Q♥ J♥ 10♥ is an ace-high straight flush) or low (e.g. 5♦ 4♦ 3♦ 2♦ A♦ is a five-high straight flush), but cannot rank both high and low in the same hand (e.g. Q♣ K♣ A♣ 2♣ 3♣ is an ace-high flush, not a straight flush).[8][14] Under deuce-to-seven low rules, aces can only rank high, so a hand such as 5♠ 4♠ 3♠ 2♠ A♠ is actually an ace-high flush. Under ace-to-six low rules, aces can only rank low, so a hand such as A♥ K♥ Q♥ J♥ 10♥ is actually a king-high flush.[15] Under ace-to-five low rules, straight flushes are not recognized, and a hand that would be categorized as a straight flush is instead a high card hand.[9]
There are 40 possible straight flush hands and 10 distinct ranks of straight flush under high rules when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each straight flush is ranked by the rank of its highest-ranking card. For example, 10♣ 9♣ 8♣ 7♣ 6♣ ranks higher than 8♥ 7♥ 6♥ 5♥ 4♥, which ranks higher than 6♠ 5♠ 4♠ 3♠ 2♠. Straight flush hands that differ by suit alone, such as 7♦ 6♦ 5♦ 4♦ 3♦ and 7♠ 6♠ 5♠ 4♠ 3♠, are of equal rank.[8][14]
An ace-high straight flush, such as A♦ K♦ Q♦ J♦ 10♦, is commonly known as a royal flush or royal straight flush and is the best possible hand in high games when not using wild cards.[7][16][17] A five-high straight flush, such as 5♥ 4♥ 3♥ 2♥ A♥, is called a steel wheel and is significant in ace-to-five high-low split games for being both the best low hand and usually the best high hand of the showdown.[4]
Four of a kind[edit]
Four of a kind, fives
Four of a kind, also known as quads, is a poker hand containing four cards of the same rank and one card of another rank (the kicker), such as 9♣ 9♠ 9♦ 9♥ J♥ ("four of a kind, nines"). It ranks below a straight flush and above a full house.[7]
There are 624 possible four of a kind hands and 156 distinct ranks of four of a kind when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each four of a kind is ranked first by the rank of its quadruplet, and then by the rank of its kicker. For example, K♠ K♥ K♣ K♦ 3♥ ranks higher than 7♥ 7♦ 7♠ 7♣ Q♥, which ranks higher than 7♥ 7♦ 7♠ 7♣ 10♠. Four of a kind hands that differ by suit alone, such as 4♣ 4♠ 4♦ 4♥ 9♣ and 4♣ 4♠ 4♦ 4♥ 9♦, are of equal rank.[8][14]
Full house[edit]
A full house, sixes over kings
A full house, also known as a full boat or tight[18] (and originally called a full hand), is a poker hand containing three cards of one rank and two cards of another rank, such as 3♣ 3♠ 3♦ 6♣ 6♥ (a "full house, threes over sixes" or "threes full of sixes" or "threes full").[19][20] It ranks below four of a kind and above a flush.[7]
There are 3,744 possible full house hands and 156 distinct ranks of full house when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each full house is ranked first by the rank of its triplet, and then by the rank of its pair. For example, 8♠ 8♦ 8♥ 7♦ 7♣ ranks higher than 4♦ 4♠ 4♣ 9♦ 9♣, which ranks higher than 4♦ 4♠ 4♣ 5♣ 5♦. Full house hands that differ by suit alone, such as K♣ K♠ K♦ J♣ J♠ and K♣ K♥ K♦ J♣ J♥, are of equal rank.[8][14]
Flush[edit]
A jack-high flush
A flush is a poker hand containing five cards all of the same suit, not all of sequential rank, such as K♣ 10♣ 7♣ 6♣ 4♣ (a "king-high flush" or "king-ten-high flush").[21] It ranks below a full house and above a straight.[7] Under ace-to-five low rules, flushes are not recognized, and a hand that would be categorized as a flush is instead a high card hand.[9]
There are 5,108 possible flush hands and 1,277 distinct ranks of flush under high rules when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each flush is ranked first by the rank of its highest-ranking card, then by the rank of its second highest-ranking card, then by the rank of its third highest-ranking card, then by the rank of its fourth highest-ranking card, and finally by the rank of its lowest-ranking card. For example, K♦ J♦ 9♦ 6♦ 4♦ ranks higher than Q♣ J♣ 7♣ 6♣ 5♣, which ranks higher than J♥ 10♥ 9♥ 4♥ 2♥, which ranks higher than J♠ 10♠ 8♠ 6♠ 3♠, which ranks higher than J♥ 10♥ 8♥ 4♥ 3♥, which ranks higher than J♣ 10♣ 8♣ 4♣ 2♣. Flush hands that differ by suit alone, such as 10♦ 8♦ 7♦ 6♦ 5♦ and 10♠ 8♠ 7♠ 6♠ 5♠, are of equal rank.[8][14]
Straight[edit]
A ten-high straight
A straight is a poker hand containing five cards of sequential rank, not all of the same suit, such as 7♣ 6♠ 5♠ 4♥ 3♥ (a "seven-high straight"). It ranks below a flush and above three of a kind.[7] As part of a straight, an ace can rank either above a king or below a two, depending on the rules of the game. Under high rules, an ace can rank either high (e.g. A♦ K♣ Q♣ J♦ 10♠ is an ace-high straight) or low (e.g. 5♣ 4♦ 3♥ 2♥ A♠ is a five-high straight), but the ace cannot rank both high and low in the same hand (e.g. Q♠ K♠ A♣ 2♥ 3♦ is an ace-high high-card hand, not a straight).[8][14] Under deuce-to-seven low rules, aces can only rank high, so a hand such as 5♥ 4♠ 3♥ 2♣ A♦ is actually an ace-high high-card hand. Under ace-to-six low rules, aces can only rank low, so a hand such as A♣ K♠ Q♠ J♦ 10♠ is actually a king-high high-card hand.[15] Under ace-to-five low rules, straights are not recognized, and a hand that would be categorized as a straight is instead a high-card hand.[9]
There are 10,200 possible straight hands and 10 distinct ranks of straight under high rules when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each straight is ranked by the rank of its highest-ranking card. For example, J♥ 10♥ 9♣ 8♠ 7♥ ranks higher than 10♠ 9♠ 8♣ 7♥ 6♠, which ranks higher than 6♣ 5♠ 4♥ 3♠ 2♦. Straight hands that differ by suit alone, such as 9♣ 8♣ 7♣ 6♦ 5♦ and 9♠ 8♠ 7♠ 6♥ 5♥, are of equal rank.[8][14]
An ace-high straight, such as A♣ K♣ Q♦ J♠ 10♠, is otherwise known as a broadway straight,[22] while a five-high straight, such as 5♠ 4♦ 3♦ 2♠ A♥, is otherwise known as a baby straight,[23] bicycle or wheel and is the best possible hand in ace-to-five low games, where it is instead categorized as a high card hand.[24][25]
Three of a kind[edit]
Three of a kind, queens
Three of a kind, also known as trips or a set, is a poker hand containing three cards of the same rank and two cards of two other ranks (the kickers), such as 2♦ 2♠ 2♣ K♠ 6♥ ("three of a kind, twos" or "trip twos" or a "set of twos"). It ranks below a straight and above two pair.[7]
There are 54,912 possible three of a kind hands and 858 distinct ranks of three of a kind when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each three of a kind is ranked first by the rank of its triplet, then by the rank of its highest-ranking kicker, and finally by the rank of its lowest-ranking kicker. For example, 6♥ 6♦ 6♠ Q♣ 4♠ ranks higher than 3♦ 3♠ 3♣ K♠ 2♠, which ranks higher than 3♦ 3♠ 3♣ J♣ 7♥, which ranks higher than 3♦ 3♠ 3♣ J♠ 5♦. Three of a kind hands that differ by suit alone, such as 9♠ 9♥ 9♦ 10♦ 8♥ and 9♣ 9♠ 9♥ 10♦ 8♦, are of equal rank.[8][14]
In community card games, such as Texas hold 'em, three of a kind is called a set only when it comprises a pocket pair and a third card on the board.[26]
Two pair[edit]
Two pair, jacks and threes
Two pair is a poker hand containing two cards of the same rank, two cards of another rank and one card of a third rank (the kicker), such as J♥ J♣ 4♣ 4♠ 9♥ ("two pair, jacks and fours" or "two pair, jacks over fours" or "jacks up").[19][27] It ranks below three of a kind and above one pair.[7]
There are 123,552 possible two pair hands and 858 distinct ranks of two pair when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each two pair is ranked first by the rank of its highest-ranking pair, then by the rank of its lowest-ranking pair, and finally by the rank of its kicker. For example, 10♦ 10♠ 2♠ 2♣ K♣ ranks higher than 5♣ 5♠ 4♦ 4♥ 10♥, which ranks higher than 5♣ 5♠ 3♣ 3♦ Q♠, which ranks higher than 5♣ 5♠ 3♣ 3♦ J♠. Two pair hands that differ by suit alone, such as K♦ K♠ 7♦ 7♥ 8♥ and K♣ K♠ 7♣ 7♥ 8♣, are of equal rank.[8][14]
One pair[edit]
One pair, tens
One pair, or simply a pair, is a poker hand containing two cards of the same rank and three cards of three other ranks (the kickers), such as 4♥ 4♠ K♠ 10♦ 5♠ ("one pair, fours" or a "pair of fours"). It ranks below two pair and above high card.[7]
There are 1,098,240 possible one pair hands and 2,860 distinct ranks of one pair when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each one pair is ranked first by the rank of its pair, then by the rank of its highest-ranking kicker, then by the rank of its second highest-ranking kicker, and finally by the rank of its lowest-ranking kicker. For example, 9♣ 9♦ Q♠ J♥ 5♥ ranks higher than 6♦ 6♥ K♠ 7♥ 4♣, which ranks higher than 6♦ 6♥ Q♥ J♠ 2♣, which ranks higher than 6♦ 6♥ Q♠ 8♣ 7♦, which ranks higher than 6♦ 6♥ Q♦ 8♥ 3♠. One pair hands that differ by suit alone, such as 8♠ 8♦ 10♥ 6♣ 5♠ and 8♥ 8♣ 10♣ 6♠ 5♣, are of equal rank.[8][14]
High card[edit]
High card, king
High card, also known as no pair or simply nothing, is a poker hand containing five cards not all of sequential rank or of the same suit, and none of which are of the same rank, such as K♥ J♥ 8♣ 7♦ 4♠ ("high card, king" or "king-jack-high" or "king-high").[19][28] Under ace-to-five low rules, where straights, flushes and straight flushes are not recognized, hands that would fall into these categories are also high card hands.[9] It ranks below one pair.[7]
There are 1,302,540 possible high cards hands and 1,277 distinct ranks of high card hand under high rules when using a standard 52-card deck.[12] Each high card hand is ranked first by the rank of its highest-ranking card, then by the rank of its second highest-ranking card, then by the rank of its third highest-ranking card, then by the rank of its fourth highest-ranking card, and finally by the rank of its lowest-ranking card. For example, K♠ 6♣ 5♥ 3♦ 2♣ ranks higher than Q♠ J♦ 6♣ 5♥ 3♣, which ranks higher than Q♠ 10♦ 8♣ 7♦ 4♠, which ranks higher than Q♥ 10♥ 7♣ 6♥ 4♠, which ranks higher than Q♣ 10♣ 7♦ 5♣ 4♦, which ranks higher than Q♥ 10♦ 7♠ 5♠ 2♥. High card hands that differ by suit alone, such as 10♣ 8♠ 7♠ 6♥ 4♦ and 10♦ 8♦ 7♠ 6♣ 4♣, are of equal rank.[8][14]
Under deuce-to-seven low rules, a seven-five-high hand, such as 7♠ 5♣ 4♦ 3♦ 2♣, is the best possible hand.[29] Under ace-to-six low rules, where aces have the lowest rank, a six-four-high hand, such as 6♣ 4♠ 3♥ 2♥ A♦, is the best possible hand.[30] Under ace-to-five low rules, where aces have the lowest rank and straights, flushes and straights are not recognized, a five-high hand, such as 5♣ 4♠ 3♥ 2♥ A♦ or 5♠ 4♠ 3♠ 2♠ A♠, commonly known as a bicycle or wheel, is the best possible hand.[9][24]
See also[edit]
Games portal
Glossary of poker terms
List of playing-card nicknames
Non-standard poker hand
Poker probability – in-depth analysis of poker hand probabilities
References[edit]
Jump up ^ Krieger, Lou (2006). "What is Poker?". The Poker Player's Bible. South Africa: Struik Publishers. pp. 12–14. ISBN 978-1-77007-469-9.
Jump up ^ Harrock, Richard (2011). "The Basics of Play". Poker for Dummies, Mini Edition. United States of America: Wiley Publishing, Inc. ISBN 978-0-470-05565-6.
Jump up ^ Sklansky, David (2005). The Theory of Poker. United States of America: Two Plus Two Publishing LLC. p. 2. ISBN 1-880685-00-0.
^ Jump up to: a b c Braids, Sam (2003). The Intelligent Guide to Texas Hold'em. Towson, Maryland: Intelligent Games Publishing. p. 166. ISBN 0-9677551-2-3.
Jump up ^ "Poker Hands Order – Poker Hand Rankings at PokerStars". www.pokerstars.com. Retrieved 12 July 2016.
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^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j Berg, Henry (13 May 2013). "FiveCardSingleDeckHands.txt". Code Throwdown. Retrieved 13 July 2016.
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Jump up ^ Sfetcu, Nicolaie. About Online Poker. Nicolae Sfetcu, 2014.
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Jump up ^ "Online Etymology Dictionary". www.etymonline.com. Retrieved 1 August 2016.
Jump up ^ Sklansky, David (2007). The Theory of Poker. Two Plus Two Publishing LLC. p. 124. ISBN 1-880685-00-0.
Jump up ^ Erickson, David (2015). "3.2.5.3 Broadway straight". Superior Texas Hold'em: Evolved Poker Strategy. United States of America: Evergent Teknologies. ISBN 978-0-9938197-0-4.
Jump up ^ Zee, Ray (2007). High-Low-Split Poker, Seven-Card Stud and Omaha Eight-or-better for Advanced Players. United States of America: Two Plus Two Publishing LLC. p. 323. ISBN 978-1-880685-10-5.
^ Jump up to: a b Sklansky, David (2005). "Glossary of Poker Terms". The Theory of Poker. United States of America: Two Plus Two Publishing LLC. pp. 277–293. ISBN 1-880685-00-0.
Jump up ^ Malmuth, Mason (1998). "Ace-to-Five Lowball". Winning Concepts in Draw and Lowball (2nd ed.). United States of America: Two Plus Two Publishing. p. 45. ISBN 1-880685-07-8.
Jump up ^ Sklansky, David (2004). Small Stakes Hold 'Em (1 ed.). Two Plus Two Publishing. p. 127. ISBN 978-1-880685-32-7.
Jump up ^ Cardoza, Avery (2012). Poker Talk. Cardoza Publishing. ISBN 978-1-58042-502-5.
Jump up ^ Gelling, Jonathan (2009). Poker Tips that Pay. Play to Pay Publishing. p. 333. ISBN 978-0-9840822-9-2.
Jump up ^ Kimberg, Daniel (2002). Serious Poker. ConJelCo LLC. pp. 229–277. ISBN 1-886070-16-4.
Jump up ^ "WSOP | How To Play | How To Play Lowball Poker". www.wsop.com. Retrieved 4 August 2016.
External links[edit]
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text:
Date and time notation in Japan
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Date and time notation in Japan has historically followed the Japanese calendar and the nengō system of counting years. At the beginning of the Meiji period, Japan switched to the Gregorian calendar on Wednesday, 1 January 1873, but for many domestic and regional government paperwork, the Japanese year is retained. Japanese business and the people have also adopted various conventions in accordance with their use of kanji, the widespread use of passenger trains, and other aspects of daily life.
Date[edit]
Japanese 10 yen coin. The date beneath the "10" reads Heisei year 7, or the year 1995.
The most commonly used date format in Japan is "year month day (weekday)", with the Japanese characters meaning "year", "month" and "day" inserted after the numerals. Example: 2008年12月31日 (水) for "Wednesday, December 31, 2008". The weekday is usually abbreviated to a single character, e.g. 水 for 水曜日 ("Wednesday"), but may also be written in full, then usually without surrounding parentheses. Apart from the Gregorian calendar, the Japanese Imperial calendar is also used, which bases the year on the current era, which in turn is based on the current emperor. The current era is 平成 Heisei and began in 1989. When using the Imperial calendar, the year is prefixed with the era. For example, the above date using the Imperial calendar is written as: 平成20年12月31日 (水); a more direct translation might be: Heisei year 20, Dec 31 (Wed).
Either form may be abbreviated as yy/mm/dd; periods as separators are not uncommon either. Examples: 20/12/31, 08.12.31. Ambiguities as to which calendar is used for the year are usually only resolved by the context in which the date appears, but Imperial calendar dates may be prefixed with a single character or letter denoting the era, e.g. 平20/12/31 or H20/12/31. This is a shorthand notation and full dates are often the preferred way of resolving such ambiguities.
Time[edit]
Information board at Shibuya Station, Tokyo, showing train listings and departure times. The current time is at top right in orange.
Both the 12-hour and 24-hour notations are used in Japan. The 24-hour notation is commonly used in Japan, especially in train schedules. The 12-hour notation is also commonly used, by adding 午前 ("before noon") or 午後 ("after noon") before the time, e.g. 午前10時 for 10 am. Japanese broadcasting and newspapers usually use a modified 12-hour notation in which midnight is 午前0時 (0 am) and noon is 午後0時 (0 pm) and, for example, "quarter past midnight" is 午前0時15分. The AM/PM signs are also used, while the sign may be placed either before or after the time (AM10:00 or 10:00AM).
Using the Japanese notation, times are written as "8時42分", with the characters for "hour" and "minute" (optionally also 秒 for "seconds") added after the numerals. It is also common to simply write 8:42 though.
Times past midnight can also be counted past the 24 hour mark, usually when the associated activity spans across midnight. For example, bars or clubs may advertise as being open until "26時" (i.e. 2 am). This is partly to avoid any ambiguity (2 am versus 2 pm), partly because the closing time is considered part of the previous business day, and perhaps also due to cultural perceptions that the hours of darkness are counted as part of the previous day, rather than dividing the night between one day and the next. Television stations will also frequently use this notation in their late-night scheduling. This form is rarely used in conversation.
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Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Date_and_time_notation_in_Japan&oldid=797610140"
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