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Evan Longoria
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Not to be confused with Eva Longoria.
Evan Longoria
Longoria with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2014
Tampa Bay Rays – No. 3
Third baseman
Born: (1985-10-07) October 7, 1985 (age 31)
Downey, California
Bats: Right Throws: Right
MLB debut
April 12, 2008, for the Tampa Bay Rays
MLB statistics
(through September 4, 2017)
Batting average
.270
Hits
1,450
Home runs
258
Runs batted in
882
Teams
Tampa Bay Rays (2008–present)
Career highlights and awards
3× All-Star (2008–2010)
AL Rookie of the Year (2008)
2× Gold Glove Award (2009, 2010)
Silver Slugger Award (2009)
Hit for the cycle on August 1, 2017
Evan Longoria
Medal record
Men's baseball
Representing United States
Baseball World Cup
2007 Tianmu National team
Evan Michael Longoria[1][2] (born October 7, 1985), nicknamed Longo, is an American professional baseball player. He played for the Long Beach State University baseball team, where he was the 2005 Cape Cod League MVP, and the 2006 Big West Co-Player of the Year. He was drafted by the Rays in the first round as the third pick overall in the 2006 MLB draft. After two full seasons in the minors, he made his major league debut for the Rays in 2008, and was named to the American League team for the 2008 MLB All Star Game. Longoria was also named the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year on November 10.[3] Longoria has also made the All-Star team three times, being selected from 2008 to 2010. Longoria had one of the biggest hits in Rays history when he hit a walk off home run in extra innings of the last game of the 2011 season, snapping a tie with the Red Sox in the race for the American League wildcard spot and sending his team into the postseason.
Longoria is considered by many to be among the best active third basemen in baseball, winning the Silver Slugger Award in 2009. He is also known for his acrobatic defense, winning two Gold Gloves at third base in 2009 and 2010. After signing a ten-year, 100 million-dollar contract extension through 2022, he has been named by many as the Rays "face of the franchise" and owns many of the franchise's records, including the team record for most career home runs, doubles, and RBIs.
Longoria has fielded almost every game of his career at third base. He has played at shortstop once.[4][5]
Contents
[hide]
1 Early life and high school baseball career
2 College baseball career
3 Professional baseball career
3.1 Minor leagues
3.2 Major leagues
3.2.1 2008: Rookie Year
3.2.2 World Baseball Classic (2009)
3.2.3 2009
3.2.4 2010
3.2.5 2011
3.2.6 2012
3.2.7 2013
3.2.8 2014: Franchise HR and RBI leader
3.2.9 2015
3.2.10 2016
3.2.11 2017
4 Brands
5 Personal life
6 See also
7 References
8 External links
Early life and high school baseball career[edit]
Longoria's father is of Mexican descent[6]and his mother is of Ukrainian descent.[7] He attended St. Raymond Catholic School in Downey, California. St. Raymond did not have a baseball team. He graduated from Saint John Bosco High School in Bellflower, California. He was a two-year letterman in baseball and as a senior was a first team All-League selection. Longoria did not receive any scholarship offers to play college baseball. USC was the only program to consider him, but eventually backed out of recruiting him. At 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds, many[by whom?] baseball recruiters felt Longoria was too slim by Division I baseball standards. As a result, he attended Rio Hondo Community College during his freshman season before Long Beach State offered him a scholarship.[8]
College baseball career[edit]
After high school, Longoria attended Rio Hondo Community College, where he played shortstop. In his freshman season, Longoria earned first-team All-State honors and was offered a scholarship by Long Beach State University. He transferred to Long Beach for his sophomore year and hit .320, earning All-Conference honors. Because Long Beach State already had an established shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki (who now plays with the Toronto Blue Jays), Longoria played third base.
Following a successful MVP summer in 2006 in the Cape Cod League with the Chatham A's where he played second base,[9] Longoria shared the Big West Conference Player of the Year honors (with Justin Turner) during his junior year at Long Beach State.[8] When he first started attending Long Beach State University, he majored in kinesiology. However, he switched to the department of Criminal Justice because it was somewhat less time-consuming and, therefore, would not interfere with the baseball schedule as much.
In just two years, Longoria transformed his thin stature into a 6-foot-2 and 210-pounds by the end of his LBSU tenure.[8]
Professional baseball career[edit]
Longoria was selected by the Tampa Bay Rays as the third overall pick in the 2006 Major League Baseball draft. Longoria was called the "best pure hitter" among college players in the 2006 draft class by Baseball America.[10] He was the highest draft selection in school history. Tampa Bay gave him a $3 million signing bonus.[8]
Minor leagues[edit]
After signing with the Rays, Longoria tore through his first assignments in the minor leagues. After just eight games with the Single-A Hudson Valley Renegades, Longoria moved up to the Visalia Oaks and impressed the organization with his quick success, hitting .327 with eight home runs and 28 RBI in 28 games. This earned him a promotion to the Double-A Montgomery Biscuits, where he hit .267 with six home runs through the end of the season, and hit .345 in the postseason, including a walk-off two run home run in the Southern League Division Playoffs to put Montgomery into the championship. He was the 2007 Most Valuable Player with the Biscuits as well as a postseason all-star. On top of that he won a player of the week award.[11] He was widely considered the top third base prospect in the minors and one of the top prospects at any position.[12][13]
Longoria followed up his successful debut with another stellar year in 2007. Starting the year with Montgomery, Longoria hit .307 with 21 home runs and 76 RBI in 105 games for the Biscuits before a late season promotion to the Triple-A Durham Bulls. In 31 games with the Bulls, he hit .269 with 5 home runs and 19 RBIs, but also had 29 strikeouts. He finished 2007 with a combined average of .299, 26 home runs, 95 RBIs, and 73 walks for an OBP of .402.
In October 2007, sportswriter Ken Rosenthal opined that Longoria "might be next season's Ryan Braun, making a rapid ascent to the majors."[14] Some scouts have in particular said that the way that the ball "explodes off his bat" reminds them of Braun. He was expected to start at third for Tampa Bay in 2008 with the move of Akinori Iwamura to second base, but ultimately failed to make the opening day roster and was optioned to Triple-A Durham. According to reports, the Rays elected to send him down to complete his development, citing his short 31 game stint in Durham and drawing comparisons to the seasons of two other highly heralded 3rd base prospects.
Major leagues[edit]
2008: Rookie Year[edit]
Evan Longoria in 2008
On April 12, 2008, the Rays placed Willy Aybar on the disabled list and called up Longoria from Triple-A Durham to replace him on the major league roster and on the 40-man roster. Longoria made his major league debut that night going 1 for 3 with an RBI.
Longoria hit his first career home run on April 14, against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. He had his first career two-homer game on May 24, and drove in six runs as the Rays defeated the Baltimore Orioles 11–4. Both of the homers came off the Orioles' Steve Trachsel, also a Long Beach State alumnus. On July 19, 2008, Longoria hit his first career grand slam off Toronto's Roy Halladay in the fifth inning as part of a 6–4 winning effort.
On April 18, the Rays signed him to a six-year, $17.5 million contract with options for 2014, 2015, and 2016. The first six years of the contract cover his arbitration years, with three more years added by team options. If the team exercises its one-year option for 2014, and then its two-year option for the 2015 and 2016 seasons, the deal could be worth up to $44 million.[15][16] There is a general consensus that this contract is among the most team-friendly, in terms of dollars per Wins Above Replacement, in Major League Baseball.[17]
On July 10, Longoria won the 2008 All-Star game AL Final Fan vote over outfielder Jermaine Dye of the Chicago White Sox, outfielder José Guillén of the Kansas City Royals, first baseman Jason Giambi of the New York Yankees, and second baseman Brian Roberts of the Baltimore Orioles. Longoria went 1–4 in the game and hit a game-tying ground-rule double in the bottom of the eighth inning. He also participated in the Home Run Derby that year. He hit 3 home runs.[18] On August 11, Longoria was placed on the disabled list with a fractured wrist.[19]
On September 18, Longoria had his first three home run game against the Minnesota Twins at Tropicana Field. On September 20, Longoria caught the game-ending out, from Joe Mauer in foul territory as the Rays clinched their first playoff spot in team history.
On October 2, in the first postseason game for both Longoria and Tampa Bay, Longoria hit two home runs in his first two at-bats to help lead the Rays past the Chicago White Sox 6–4. Longoria is the first rookie and second player overall to homer in his first two postseason at bats. The first to do so was Longoria's hitting coach at Triple-A Durham, Gary Gaetti, who had his historic effort with the Minnesota Twins in 1987.
On October 14, 2008, Longoria set the rookie mark for most home runs (4) hit in a postseason series, breaking Miguel Cabrera's record set in 2003. The Rays made it to the 2008 World Series (their first in franchise history) but were defeated by the Philadelphia Phillies.
After the 2008 season, Longoria was honored with Sporting News Rookie of the Year Award for the American League,[20] as well as the American League Rookie of the Year Award. He became the fourth third baseman to win the award. He also became the sixth player and the first since Nomar Garciaparra in 1997 to win a Rookie of the Year Award unanimously.[21] He was also named the third baseman on the Topps Rookie All-Star Team.
World Baseball Classic (2009)[edit]
Longoria was called upon on March 19, 2009, to replace Chipper Jones in the World Baseball Classic.[22]
2009[edit]
Evan Longoria in 2009
In April, Longoria knocked in his 100th career RBI, in his 135th game. The only then-active players to get to 100 RBIs more quickly were Ryan Braun (118 games) and Albert Pujols (131 games).[23] At the end of April, Longoria became the first player in Rays franchise history to be named the AL Player of the Month. He had also won two of the four Player of the Week awards for the month of April.[24] Longoria drove in 131 runs in his first 162 games in the majors, the third-highest total through May 2009 of any active player.[25] Longoria was selected by the fans to start the 2009 MLB All Star Game on July 5, 2009. Due to a finger injury, he was kept out of the lineup.[26]
Longoria won the American League Gold Glove Award for his position on November 10.[27] Two days later, he won a Silver Slugger Award.[28]
2010[edit]
In 2010, Longoria hit for the highest average of his career at .294 and was selected to play in the All Star Game for the third consecutive season. He performed well, getting a hit in his only official at-bat, in addition to having a walk and a run scored. Across the board, Longoria's 2010 season was statistically impressive, including 96 runs scored and 46 doubles as well as 5 triples. Surprisingly, though, his home run and RBI production fell from 33-113 in 2009 to 22-104 in 2010. After the season, Longoria won the Gold Glove Award at third base for the second straight year.
2011[edit]
On September 28, 2011, Longoria hit a walk-off home run in extra innings against the New York Yankees to give the Rays an 8-7 victory, and more importantly, a spot in the playoffs.[29] Earlier in the month, the Rays were facing a deficit of nine games in the wild card race to the Boston Red Sox. However, an epic collapse of the Red Sox, where they went 7-20 in the final games of the year, and a surge of the Rays, allowed them to overtake the Red Sox and eliminate them on the final day of the regular season. Longoria's home run came just three minutes after the Red Sox suffered a walk-off loss to the Baltimore Orioles.
2012[edit]
"I always wanted to be kind of a benchmark player ... the guy that you could think about or associate with the organization. My goal from day one was to be the first player that played their whole career here, to be the first guy that came into the organization and went out in the organization, and played all the years in between. There's no better place for me."
Longoria on his contract extension and playing his whole career in Tampa Bay.[30]
On April 30, 2012, Longoria suffered a partially torn hamstring after sliding to second base when being caught stealing. His injury placed him on the 60-day disabled list as Longoria was expected to miss from 6–8 weeks. He missed 13 weeks and returned to the lineup on August 7, 2012. In the 85 games Longoria missed, the Rays earned a record of 41-44. The rest of the season, the Rays were 49-28, for a 63.6% winning percentage.
On October 3, 2012, Longoria finished off the 2012 season with three home runs in the final game.
On November 26, 2012, Longoria was signed to a 6-year, $100 million contract extension that could keep him in Tampa Bay through 2023.[31][32]
2013[edit]
On August 19, 2013, Longoria hit his 25th home run of the season, giving him his fourth 25-homer season, which tied him with Carlos Peña for the most such seasons in Tampa Bay history.[33]
Longoria drove in his 500th career RBI after hitting a sacrifice fly vs. the New York Yankees on June 20, 2013, to plate Sean Rodriguez.[34]
Longoria hit two home runs on September 25, 2013, vs. the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. These home runs gave him No. 30 and No. 31 on the year, also giving him his third career 30 HR season. The Rays won the game 8–3.[35]
During the 2013 American League Wild Card tie-breaker game vs. the Texas Rangers, Longoria hit a two-run home run in the third inning. It would eventually be the go-ahead run, giving the Rays a fourth playoff berth in franchise history.[36]
Some of his 2013 highlights included playing in the most games of his career with 160; he missed two with a foot injury. He had a walk-off home run vs. the San Diego Padres on May 11 when the Rays were down, 6–7. It was his first walk-off home run since the Game 162 walk-off against the New York Yankees in 2011.[37]
2014: Franchise HR and RBI leader[edit]
The 2014 season was Longoria's 7th season as a Major League player.
On Opening Day, Longoria went 0-4,[38] but quickly got on pace and on April 4, 2014, Longoria hit the 163rd home run of his career to tie the Rays franchise record of most home runs, a record which was held for many years by Carlos Peña.
During a 14-game stretch after his first home run, Evan had no home runs, until April 19, 2014, Longoria hit his career homer No. 164, shattering the all-time Rays record for home runs, passing Carlos Peña.[39]
Longoria suffered a power stroke in the first half, going only .257 with 11 home runs and 44 RBI. On July 18, the Rays started the second half playing the Minnesota Twins after the All-Star Break (which was hosted by the Twins), and in the game, Longoria had a bases clearing double which would seal the win for the Rays. On July 20 in the same series, Longoria hit a double off of Kevin Correia in the third inning, tying the franchise record in doubles, held by Carl Crawford with 215. In the same game, he hit his second double of the game, driving in Matt Joyce, breaking the doubles record held by Crawford, along with tying the RBI mark on the team, also held by Carl Crawford.[40]
Facing St. Louis Cardinals reliever Jason Motte, Longoria hit a solo home run off a 1-1 fastball, making Longoria the team's all-time RBI leader.[41]
2015[edit]
On September 2, Longoria hit his 200th career home run.[42] Longoria finished the season with a .270 average, 21 home runs, and 73 runs batted in over 160 games played.[43] Longoria was also a finalist for the Gold Glove Award at third base for the American League.[44]
2016[edit]
Longoria came out of the gate swinging, belting 19 first half home runs with a .526 slugging percentage. His first half performance earned him a spot in the 2016 All-Star Final Vote. [45] In the end, the three time All-Star would lose out to Michael Saunders of the Toronto Blue Jays.
For the second consecutive year, Longoria appeared in all but two of the Rays regular season games. He would finish 2016 hitting .273 with a career high 36 homeruns and 98 RBI's over 685 plate appearances.
2017[edit]
On April 2, Longoria hit his fourth career Opening Day home run.
Entering August 1, Longoria was hitting .328 with a .919 OPS after the All Star Break. That night, he would continue his hot streak, becoming just the second Tampa Bay Ray to hit for the cycle, the first having been B. J. Upton in 2009.[46] Longoria homered in the first, tripled in the third, singled in the seventh, and doubled in the ninth. In the ninth, Longoria was originally called out at second before replay overturned the call. Per Elias Sports Bureau, Longoria became the first player to hit for the cycle while having one of his hits reviewed. [47]
Brands[edit]
Bat – Louisville Slugger Model I13 (34oz.)
Batting gloves – Franklin
Glove – Wilson A2000
Footwear – New Balance
Personal life[edit]
In the past Longoria has used "I'm Broken" by Pantera and currently[when?] he is using "Down and Out" by Tantric as his at-bat music.[citation needed]
The similarity of his name with actress Eva Longoria's has brought about playful comparisons between the two. Although both are Americans of Mexican descent, they are not related. When asked as a college baseball player in 2005 about the name similarity, he admitted that he got "ragged on it a lot, but I don't mind. My friends and I think she's hot."[48] However, when asked about it again in 2008, Evan said that he was "done talking about that. I did it all through the minor leagues. That's all I had to hear was her name associated with mine. I think we're kind of past that. That's all." After he was named to the 2008 Major League Baseball All-Star Game, Eva sent Evan a bottle of champagne and a note thanking him for "doing the Longoria name proud".[49] In return, Evan sent Eva three signed jerseys. The name similarity between Evan and Eva has led to some heckling by opposing fans against him.[50][51]
Longoria with his teammates
Evan Longoria was named the cover athlete for Major League Baseball 2K10, succeeding Tim Lincecum.[52] Longoria also appears in a commercial for the game that advertises the $1 million prize given to the first person to pitch a perfect game in MLB 2K10. In the commercial, Longoria breaks up a perfect game with a home run. On August 8, 2010, Longoria broke up a no-hitter in the ninth inning with two outs. Longoria spoiled Brandon Morrow's attempt with a putt-shot to the Blue Jays' second baseman, who was unable to make a play on it. Brandon Morrow was left with a 17-strikeout one-hitter (which would have tied Nolan Ryan for most strikeouts in a no-hitter).
He was featured in a TV commercial for Gillette.[8] Longoria has also appeared in a commercial for New Era hats that was aired during the 2010 season.
On March 8, 2011, his classic 1967 black and white Camaro RS, valued at $75,000, and a Buick GSX, valued at $25,000, were reported stolen from an Arizona lot. Longoria lives in California, but was having work done on the cars in Arizona.[53]
On March 28, 2011, Longoria, David Price and Reid Brignac's rental property in Port Charlotte, Florida, was broken into, while they were away at the nearby Charlotte Sports Park stadium for a game. According to the St. Petersburg Times, police estimated $56,000 in lost property from the burglary. Among the loot was Longoria's AK-47 rifle.[54]
Longoria is an avid self-taught drummer and even has a drum kit in Tropicana Field. He owns a drumhead signed by members of Rush.[55]
In February 2012, Longoria confirmed he was dating January 2010 Playmate of the Month Jaime Edmondson, who was also a contestant on the 14th season and the 18th season of The Amazing Race.[56] In December 2012, the couple announced that they were expecting a child.[57] The due date was reported to be April 1, 2013. However, Edmondson had labor induced six weeks prior at the advisement of doctors. She gave birth to a girl, Elle Leona Longoria, on the night of February 20, 2013.[58][59] Longoria and Edmondson married on December 31, 2015.[60]
Longoria owns a restaurant in South Tampa called "Ducky's" which opened in December 2013.[61]
See also[edit]
List of Major League Baseball players to hit for the cycle
References[edit]
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Jump up ^ "Evan Longoria Fielding Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com". Baseball-Reference.com. Retrieved 2016-05-23.
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^ Jump up to: a b c d e "Evan Longoria: From Long Beach State Dirtbag to baseball superstar". Daily49er.com. January 31, 2011. Retrieved June 29, 2011.
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Jump up ^ Bill Chastain (April 18, 2008). "Rays sign Longoria to multiyear contract". Mlb.mlb.com. Retrieved June 29, 2011.
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Jump up ^ "Rangers' Young to replace Longoria". espn.com. July 14, 2009. Retrieved May 2, 2014.
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Jump up ^ David Brown (September 30, 2013). "Game 163: Evan Longoria and David Price lead Rays to wild card with 5-2 victory". sports.yahoo.com. Retrieved May 4, 2014.
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Jump up ^ "Rays' Longoria hits two milestones on one swing". tampabay.com. July 20, 2014. Retrieved July 21, 2014.
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Jump up ^ "Longoria hits milestone home runs in Rays' 7-6 loss". foxsports.com. September 2, 2015. Retrieved March 6, 2016.
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Jump up ^ "Desperate connection". CNN. May 25, 2005.
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Jump up ^ 2K Sports (November 24, 2009). "2K Sports Signs 2009 Gold Glove Award Winner Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays as Cover Athlete for Major League Baseball 2K10". 2K Sports.
Jump up ^ Merrill, Laurie (March 8, 2011). "Professional baseball player's car stolen from Chandler lot". azcentral. Retrieved March 28, 2011.
Jump up ^ Marc Topkin, Kim Wilmath (March 29, 2011). "Tampa Bay Rays' Evan Longoria says only that stolen AK-47 rifle was a 'personal item'". St. Petersburg Times. Retrieved March 28, 2011.
Jump up ^ Matt Crossman (May 15, 2012). "Dinner with Rays third basemen Evan Longoria". sportingnews.com. Retrieved May 4, 2014.
Jump up ^ Brown, David (February 22, 2012). "Evan Longoria confirms he's dating Playboy model Jaime Edmondson".
Jump up ^ Smith, Joe (December 17, 2012). "Tampa Bay Ray Evan Longoria and Jaime Edmondson expecting child this spring". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved December 18, 2012.
Jump up ^ Mooney, Roger (February 22, 2013). "Newborn daughter of Tampa Bay Rays' Longoria doing fine". Tampa Tribune. Retrieved February 22, 2013.
Jump up ^ Castrovince, Anthony (February 22, 2013). "Longoria could return to camp this weekend". Raysbaseball.com. Retrieved February 22, 2013.
Jump up ^ Jaime Edmondson [@jaimeedmondson] (January 1, 2016). "This is the moment that officially made me a married woman💋 I never get tired of kissing this man😊 @Evan3Longoria" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
Jump up ^ Justin Grant (January 8, 2014). "From drinks to mini bowling, Evan Longoria's Ducky's Sports Lounge is a hit". Retrieved May 2, 2014.
External links[edit]
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Evan Longoria.
Biography portal
Baseball portal
Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball-Reference, or Fangraphs, or The Baseball Cube, or Baseball-Reference (Minors)
[show]Awards and achievements
Preceded by
Dustin Pedroia Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year
2008 Succeeded by
Gordon Beckham
Preceded by
Dustin Pedroia Players Choice AL Most Outstanding Rookie
2008 Succeeded by
Gordon Beckham
Preceded by
Ryan Braun Topps Rookie All-Star Third Baseman
2008 Succeeded by
Gordon Beckham
Preceded by
Hank Blalock
Ben Zobrist AL Player of the Week
April 5–12, 2009 Succeeded by
Ian Kinsler
Zack Greinke
Preceded by
Shin-Soo Choo American League Player of the Month
April 2009 Succeeded by
Joe Mauer
Preceded by
Cody Bellinger Hitting for the cycle
August 1, 2017 Succeeded by
José Abreu
[show]
v
t
e
American League Rookie of the Year Award
1949: Sievers
1950: Dropo
1951: McDougald
1952: Byrd
1953: Kuenn
1954: Grim
1955: Score
1956: Aparicio
1957: Kubek
1958: Pearson
1959: Allison
1960: Hansen
1961: Schwall
1962: Tresh
1963: Peters
1964: Oliva
1965: Blefary
1966: Agee
1967: Carew
1968: Bahnsen
1969: Piniella
1970: Munson
1971: Chambliss
1972: Fisk
1973: Bumbry
1974: Hargrove
1975: Lynn
1976: Fidrych
1977: Murray
1978: Whitaker
1979: Castino & Griffin
1980: Charboneau
1981: Righetti
1982: Ripken Jr.
1983: Kittle
1984: Davis
1985: Guillén
1986: Canseco
1987: McGwire
1988: Weiss
1989: Olson
1990: Alomar Jr.
1991: Knoblauch
1992: Listach
1993: Salmon
1994: Hamelin
1995: Cordova
1996: Jeter
1997: Garciaparra
1998: Grieve
1999: Beltrán
2000: Sasaki
2001: Suzuki
2002: Hinske
2003: Berroa
2004: Crosby
2005: Street
2006: Verlander
2007: Pedroia
2008: Longoria
2009: Bailey
2010: Feliz
2011: Hellickson
2012: Trout
2013: Myers
2014: Abreu
2015: Correa
2016: Fulmer
[show]
v
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e
GIBBY/This Year in Baseball Rookie of the Year Award
2003: Podsednik
2004: Wright
2005: Canó
2006: Liriano
2007: Tulowitzki
2008: Longoria
2009: Happ
2010: Posey
2011: Kimbrel
2012: Trout
2013: Fernández
2014: Abreu
[show]
v
t
e
American League Third Baseman Gold Glove Award
1958: Malzone
1959: Malzone
1960: Robinson
1961: Robinson
1962: Robinson
1963: Robinson
1964: Robinson
1965: Robinson
1966: Robinson
1967: Robinson
1968: Robinson
1969: Robinson
1970: Robinson
1971: Robinson
1972: Robinson
1973: Robinson
1974: Robinson
1975: Robinson
1976: Rodríguez
1977: Nettles
1978: Nettles
1979: Bell
1980: Bell
1981: Bell
1982: Bell
1983: Bell
1984: Bell
1985: Brett
1986: Gaetti
1987: Gaetti
1988: Gaetti
1989: Gaetti
1990: Gruber
1991: Ventura
1992: Ventura
1993: Ventura
1994: Boggs
1995: Boggs
1996: Ventura
1997: Williams
1998: Ventura
1999: Brosius
2000: Fryman
2001: Chavez
2002: Chavez
2003: Chavez
2004: Chavez
2005: Chavez
2006: Chavez
2007: Beltré
2008: Beltré
2009: Longoria
2010: Longoria
2011: Beltré
2012: Beltré
2013: Machado
2014: Seager
2015: Machado
2016: Beltré
[show]
v
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American League Third Baseman Silver Slugger Award
1980: Brett
1981: Lansford
1982: DeCinces
1983: Boggs
1984: Bell
1985: Brett
1986: Boggs
1987: Boggs
1988: Boggs
1989: Boggs
1990: Gruber
1991: Boggs
1992: Martínez
1993: Boggs
1994: Boggs
1995: Gaetti
1996: Thome
1997: Williams
1998: Palmer
1999: Palmer
2000: Glaus
2001: Glaus
2002: Chavez
2003: Mueller
2004: Mora
2005: Rodriguez
2006: Crede
2007: Rodriguez
2008: Rodriguez
2009: Longoria
2010: Beltré
2011: Beltré
2012: Cabrera
2013: Cabrera
2014: Beltré
2015: Donaldson
2016: Donaldson
[show]
v
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Third Baseman Fielding Bible Award
2006: Beltré
2007: Feliz
2008: Beltré
2009: Zimmerman
2010: Longoria
2011: Beltré
2012: Beltré
2013: Machado
2014: Donaldson
2015: Arenado
2016: Arenado
[show]
v
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United States roster – 2009 World Baseball Classic – 4th place
1 Jimmy Rollins
2 Derek Jeter
4 David Wright
6 Brian Roberts
7 Mark DeRosa
10 Chipper Jones
13 Evan Longoria
15 Dustin Pedroia
16 Brian McCann
17 Adam Dunn
18 Ryan Braun
21 Kevin Youkilis
22 Jake Peavy
23 J. J. Putz
26 Chris Iannetta
28 Curtis Granderson
29 Matt Lindstrom
31 Brad Ziegler
33 Ted Lilly
34 John Grabow
37 Matt Thornton
38 Joel Hanrahan
39 J. P. Howell
42 LaTroy Hawkins
44 Roy Oswalt
46 Jeremy Guthrie
50 Shane Victorino
51 Jonathan Broxton
62 Scot Shields
99 Heath Bell
Manager 5 Davey Johnson
Batting Coach 8 Reggie Smith
Pitching Coach 27 Marcel Lachemann
Coach 11 Barry Larkin
Coach 3 Billy Ripken
Coach 20 Mike Schmidt
Bullpen Coach 30 Mel Stottlemyre
[show]
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2006 Major League Baseball Draft First Round Selections
Luke Hochevar
Greg Reynolds
Evan Longoria
Brad Lincoln
Brandon Morrow
Andrew Miller
Clayton Kershaw
Drew Stubbs
Bill Rowell
Tim Lincecum
Max Scherzer
Kasey Kiker
Tyler Colvin
Travis Snider
Chris Marrero
Jeremy Jeffress
Matt Antonelli
Kyle Drabek
Brett Sinkbeil
Chris Parmelee
Ian Kennedy
Colton Williams
Maxwell Sapp
Cody Johnson
Hank Conger
Bryan Morris
Jason Place
Daniel Bard
Kyle McCulloch
Adam Ottavino
Preston Mattingly
Pedro Beato
Emmanuel Burriss
Brooks Brown
Kyler Burke
Chris Coghlan
Adrian Cárdenas
Cory Rasmus
David Huff
Kris Johnson
Joba Chamberlain
Chris Perez
Steven Evarts
Caleb Clay
[show]
v
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Tampa Bay Rays first-round draft picks
1996: Wilder
1997: Standridge
1998: None
1999: Hamilton
2000: Baldelli
2001: Brazelton
2002: Upton
2003: Young
2004: Niemann
2005: Townsend
2006: Longoria
2007: Price
2008: Beckham
2009: Washington
2010: Sale, O'Conner, Vettleson
2011: Guerrieri, Mahtook, Hager, Martin, Goeddel, Ames, Snell, Carter, Garvin, Harris
2012: Shaffer
2013: Ciuffo, Stanek
2014: Gillaspie
2015: Whitley
2016: Lowe
2017: McKay
[show]
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Tampa Bay Rays current roster
Active roster
0 Mallex Smith
3 Evan Longoria
4 Blake Snell
7 Logan Morrison
10 Corey Dickerson
11 Adeiny Hechavarria
13 Brad Miller
14 Trevor Plouffe
18 Peter Bourjos
19 Curt Casali
20 Steven Souza
21 Lucas Duda
22 Chris Archer
23 Jake Odorizzi
26 Brad Boxberger
29 Daniel Robertson
30 César Puello
31 Xavier Cedeño
33 Steve Cishek
34 Jacob Faria
35 Matt Andriese
36 Andrew Kittredge
37 Álex Colomé
39 Kevin Kiermaier
40 Wilson Ramos
43 Dan Jennings
45 Jesús Sucre
46 José Alvarado
47 Chase Whitley
49 Tommy Hunter
50 Austin Pruitt
52 Chaz Roe
53 Alex Cobb
54 Sergio Romo
58 Chih-Wei Hu
59 Ryne Stanek
Inactive roster
27 Willy Adames
54 Hunter Wood
57 Jaime Schultz
87 José De León
Disabled list
5 Matt Duffy
24 Nathan Eovaldi
38 Shawn Tolleson
54 Kevin Gadea
56 Taylor Guerrieri
Restricted list
28 Colby Rasmus
Coaching staff
Manager 16 Kevin Cash
Bench 6 Tom Foley
First base 15 Rocco Baldelli
Third base 25 Charlie Montoyo
Hitting 51 Chad Mottola
Asst. hitting 44 Jamie Nelson
Bullpen 41 Stan Boroski
Pitching 48 Jim Hickey
Bullpen catcher 77 Scott Cursi
Bullpen catcher 99 Misha Dworken
Authority control
WorldCat Identities
VIAF: 171341847
LCCN: n2011039234
ISNI: 0000 0001 2043 4074
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Prediction
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search
For other uses, see Prediction (disambiguation).
This article needs additional citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. (November 2007) (Learn how and when to remove this template message)
The Old Farmer's Almanac is famous in the US for its (not necessarily accurate) long-range weather predictions.
A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say"), or forecast, is a statement about a future event[1]. A prediction is often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference between the two terms; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations. (Contrast with estimation.)
Although future events are necessarily uncertain, so guaranteed accurate information about the future is in many cases impossible, prediction can be useful to assist in making plans about possible developments; Howard H. Stevenson writes that prediction in business "... is at least two things: Important and hard."[2]
Contents
[hide]
1 Judgement-based prediction
2 Statistics
3 Prediction in science
3.1 Scientific hypothesis and prediction
4 Finance
5 Sports
6 Opinion polls
7 Supernatural prediction
8 Prediction in fiction
9 See also
10 Footnotes
11 References
Judgement-based prediction[edit]
In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion[3].
A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be of useful — if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field.[4]
The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way. This type of prediction might be perceived as consistent with statistical techniques in the sense that, at minimum, the "data" being used is the predicting expert's cognitive experiences forming an intuitive "probability curve."
Statistics[edit]
In statistics, prediction is a part of statistical inference. One particular approach to such inference is known as predictive inference, but the prediction can be undertaken within any of the several approaches to statistical inference. Indeed, one possible description of statistics is that it provides a means of transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population, and to other related populations, which is not necessarily the same as prediction over time. When information is transferred across time, often to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting.[5][not in citation given] Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction is often performed on cross-sectional data.
Statistical techniques used for prediction include regression analysis and its various sub-categories such as linear regression, generalized linear models (logistic regression, Poisson regression, Probit regression), etc. In case of forecasting, autoregressive moving average models and vector autoregression models can be utilized. When these and/or related, generalized set of regression or machine learning methods are deployed in commercial usage, the field is known as predictive analytics.[6]
In many applications, such as time series analysis, it is possible to estimate the models that generate the observations. If models can be expressed as transfer functions or in terms of state-space parameters then smoothed, filtered and predicted data estimates can be calculated.[7] If the underlying generating models are linear then a minimum-variance Kalman filter and a minimum-variance smoother may be used to recover data of interest from noisy measurements. These techniques rely on one-step-ahead predictors (which minimise the variance of the prediction error). When the generating models are nonlinear then stepwise linearizations may be applied within Extended Kalman Filter and smoother recursions. However, in nonlinear cases, optimum minimum-variance performance guarantees no longer apply.[8]
To use regression analysis for prediction, data are collected on the variable that is to be predicted, called the dependent variable or response variable, and on one or more variables whose values are hypothesized to influence it, called independent variables or explanatory variables. A functional form, often linear, is hypothesized for the postulated causal relationship, and the parameters of the function are estimated from the data—that is, are chosen so as to optimize is some way the fit of the function, thus parameterized, to the data. That is the estimation step. For the prediction step, explanatory variable values that are deemed relevant to future (or current but not yet observed) values of the dependent variable are input to the parameterized function to generate predictions for the dependent variable.[9]
Prediction in science[edit]
NASA's 2004 predictions of the solar cycle, which were inaccurate (predicting that solar cycle 24 would start in 2007 and be larger than cycle 23), and the refined predictions in 2012, showing it started in 2010 and is very small.
In science, a prediction is a rigorous, often quantitative, statement, forecasting what would happen under specific conditions; for example, if an apple fell from a tree it would be attracted towards the center of the earth by gravity with a specified and constant acceleration. The scientific method is built on testing statements that are logical consequences of scientific theories. This is done through repeatable experiments or observational studies.
A scientific theory which is contradicted by observations and evidence will be rejected. New theories that generate many new predictions can more easily be supported or falsified (see predictive power). Notions that make no testable predictions are usually considered not to be part of science (protoscience or nescience) until testable predictions can be made.
Mathematical equations and models, and computer models, are frequently used to describe the past and future behaviour of a process within the boundaries of that model. In some cases the probability of an outcome, rather than a specific outcome, can be predicted, for example in much of quantum physics.
In microprocessors, branch prediction permits avoidance of pipeline emptying at branch instructions. In engineering, possible failure modes are predicted and avoided by correcting the mechanism causing the failure.
Accurate prediction and forecasting are very difficult in some areas, such as natural disasters, pandemics, demography, population dynamics and meteorology. For example, it is possible to predict the occurrence of solar cycles, but their exact timing and magnitude is much more difficult (see picture to right).
Scientific hypothesis and prediction[edit]
Established science makes useful predictions which are often extremely reliable and accurate; for example, eclipses are routinely predicted.
New theories make predictions which allow them to be disproved by reality. For example, predicting the structure of crystals at the atomic level is a current research challenge.[10] In the early 20th century the scientific consensus was that there existed an absolute frame of reference, which was given the name luminiferous ether. The existence of this absolute frame was deemed necessary for consistency with the established idea that the speed of light is constant. The famous Michelson-Morley experiment demonstrated that predictions deduced from this concept were not borne out in reality, thus disproving the theory of an absolute frame of reference. The special theory of relativity was proposed by Einstein as an explanation for the seeming inconsistency between the constancy of the speed of light and the non-existence of a special, preferred or absolute frame of reference.
Albert Einstein's theory of general relativity could not easily be tested as it did not produce any effects observable on a terrestrial scale. However, the theory predicted that large masses such as stars would bend light, in contradiction to accepted theory; this was observed in a 1919 eclipse.
Finance[edit]
Prediction market
Mathematical models of stock market behaviour (and economic behaviour in general) are also unreliable in predicting future behaviour. Among other reasons, this is because economic events may span several years, and the world is changing over a similar time frame, thus invalidating the relevance of past observations to the present. Thus there are an extremely small number (of the order of 1) of relevant past data points from which to project the future. In addition, it is generally believed that stock market prices already take into account all the information available to predict the future, and subsequent movements must therefore be the result of unforeseen events. Consequently, it is extremely difficult for a stock investor to anticipate or predict a stock market boom, or a stock market crash. In contrast to predicting the actual stock return, forecasting of broad economic trends tends to have better accuracy. Such analysis is provided by both non-profit groups as well as by for-profit private institutions, including brokerage housesand consulting companies.
Some correlation has been seen between actual stock market movements and prediction data from large groups in surveys and prediction games.
An actuary uses actuarial science to assess and predict future business risk, such that the risk(s) can be mitigated. For example, in insurance an actuary would use a life table (which incorporates the historical experience of mortality rates and sometimes an estimate of future trends) to project life expectancy.
Sports[edit]
Predicting the outcome of sporting events is a business which has grown in popularity in recent years. Handicappers predict the outcome of games using a variety of mathematical formulas, simulation models or qualitative analysis. Early, well known sports bettors, such as Jimmy the Greek, were believed to have access to information that gave them an edge. Information ranged from personal issues, such as gambling or drinking to undisclosed injuries; anything that may affect the performance of a player on the field.
Recent times have changed the way sports are predicted. Predictions now typically consist of two distinct approaches: Situational plays and statistical based models. Situational plays are much more difficult to measure because they usually involve the motivation of a team. Dan Gordon, noted handicapper, wrote “Without an emotional edge in a game in addition to value in a line, I won’t put my money on it”.[11] These types of plays consist of: Betting on the home underdog, betting against Monday Night winners if they are a favorite next week, betting the underdog in “look ahead” games etc. As situational plays become more widely known they become less useful because they will impact the way the line is set.
The widespread use of technology has brought with it more modern sports betting systems. These systems are typically algorithms and simulation models based on regression analysis. Jeff Sagarin, a sports statistician, has brought attention to sports by having the results of his models published in USA Today. He is currently paid as a consultant by the Dallas Mavericks for his advice on lineups and the use of his Winval system, which evaluates free agents. Brian Burke, a former Navy fighter pilot turned sports statistician, has published his results of using regression analysis to predict the outcome of NFL games.[12] Ken Pomeroy is widely accepted as a leading authority on college basketball statistics. His website includes his College Basketball Ratings, a tempo based statistics system. Some statisticians have become very famous for having successful prediction systems. Dare wrote “the effective odds for sports betting and horse racing are a direct result of human decisions and can therefore potentially exhibit consistent error”.[13] Unlike other games offered in a casino, prediction in sporting events can be both logical and consistent.
Other more advance models include those based on Bayesian networks, which are causal probabilistic models commonly used for risk analysis and decision support. Based on this kind of mathematical modelling, Constantinou et al.,[14][15] have developed models for predicting the outcome of association football matches. What makes these models interesting is that, apart from taking into consideration relevant historical data, they also incorporate all these vague subjective factors, like availability of key players, team fatigue, team motivation and so on. They provide the user with the ability to include their best guesses about things that there are no hard facts available. This additional information is then combined with historical facts to provide a revised prediction for future match outcomes. The initial results based on these modelling practices are encouraging since they have demonstrated consistent profitability against published market odds.
Opinion polls[edit]
Approval ratings (percentages) for the 2004 Canadian federal election
In politics it is common to attempt to predict the outcome of elections via political forecasting techniques (or assess the popularity of politicians) through the use of opinion polls. Prediction games have been used by many corporations and governments to learn about the most likely outcome of future events.
Supernatural prediction[edit]
Main article: Prophecy
Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using paranormal or supernatural means such as prophecy or by observing omens. Methods including water divining, astrology, numerology, fortune telling, interpretation of dreams, and many other forms of divination, have been used for millennia to attempt to predict the future. These means of prediction have not been proven by scientific experiments.
In literature, vision and prophecy are literary devices used to present a possible timeline of future events. They can be distinguished by vision referring to what an individual sees happen. The New Testament book of Revelation (Bible) thus uses vision as a literary device in this regard. It is also prophecy or prophetic literature when it is related by an individual in a sermon or other public forum.
Divination is the attempt to gain insight into a question or situation by way of an occultic standardized process or ritual.[16] It is an integral part of witchcraft and has been used in various forms for thousands of years. Diviners ascertain their interpretations of how a querent should proceed by reading signs, events, or omens, or through alleged contact with a supernatural agency, most often describe as an angel or a god though viewed by Christians and Jews as a fallen angel or demon.[17]
Prediction in fiction[edit]
Fiction (especially fantasy, forecasting and science fiction) often features instances of prediction achieved by unconventional means.
In fantasy literature, predictions are often obtained through magic or prophecy, sometimes referring back to old traditions. For example, in J. R. R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings, many of the characters possess an awareness of events extending into the future, sometimes as prophecies, sometimes as more-or-less vague 'feelings'. The character Galadriel, in addition, employs a water "mirror" to show images, sometimes of possible future events.
In some of Philip K. Dick's stories, mutant humans called precogs can foresee the future (ranging from days to years). In the story called The Golden Man, an exceptional mutant can predict the future to an indefinite range (presumably up to his death), and thus becomes completely non-human, an animal that follows the predicted paths automatically. Precogs also play an essential role in another of Dick's stories, The Minority Report, which was turned into a film by Steven Spielberg in 2002.
In the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov, a mathematician finds out that historical events (up to some detail) can be theoretically modelled using equations, and then spends years trying to put the theory in practice. The new science of psychohistory founded upon his success can simulate history and extrapolate the present into the future.
In Frank Herbert's sequels to 1965's Dune, his characters are dealing with the repercussions of being able to see the possible futures and select amongst them. Herbert sees this as a trap of stagnation, and his characters follow a so-called "Golden Path" out of the trap.
In Ursula K. Le Guin's The Left Hand of Darkness, the humanoid inhabitants of planet Gethen have mastered the art of prophecy and routinely produce data on past, present or future events on request. In this story, this was a minor plot device.
See also[edit]
Forecasting
Famous predictions
Futures studies
Oracle
Predictability
Prediction market
Predictive medicine
Prognosis
Prognostics
Reference class forecasting
Regression analysis
Thought experiment
Trend estimation
Footnotes[edit]
Jump up ^ Simandan, D., 2018. Wisdom and foresight in Chinese thought: sensing the immediate future. Journal of Futures Studies. 22(3), pp. 35-50. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2018.22(3).00A35
Jump up ^ Stevenson, Howard, ed. Do lunch or be lunch. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998
Jump up ^ Grunwald, A., 2014. Modes of orientation provided by futures studies: making sense of diversity and divergence. European Journal of Futures Research, 2(1), p.30.
Jump up ^ Silver, Nate (2012) The signal and the noise: Why so many predictions fail--but some don't. The Penguin Press, New York, 534 p. ISBN 978-1-59420-411-1.
Jump up ^ Cox, D. R. (2006). Principles of Statistical Inference, Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-68567-2.
Jump up ^ Siegel, Eric (2013). Predictive analysis: The power to predict who will click, buy, lie, or die. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ, 302 p. ISBN 978-1-118-35685-2.
Jump up ^ Einicke, G.A. (2012). Smoothing, Filtering and Prediction: Estimating the Past, Present and Future. Rijeka, Croatia: Intech. ISBN 978-953-307-752-9.
Jump up ^ Julier, S.J., Uhlmann, J.K. (2004). Unscented filtering and nonlinear estimation. Proceedings of the IEEE, 92(3), 401–422. doi = 10.1109/jproc.2003.823141. http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=1271397.
Jump up ^ Fox, John (2016) Applied regression analysis and generalized linear models. Sage Publications, London, 791 p, third edition. ISBN 978-1-4522-0566-3.
Jump up ^ Woodley, S.M.; Catlow, R. (2008), "Crystal structure prediction from first principles", Nat Mater, 7 (12): 937–946
Jump up ^ Gordon, Dan (2005). Beat the Sports Books. New York, United States: Cardoza. ISBN 978-1-5804-2174-4.
Jump up ^ Burke, Brian (2008). "NFL Win Prediction Methodology".
Jump up ^ Dare, William H (2006). Risk Return and Gambling Market Efficiency (PDF). Oklahoma City, United States: Oklahoma State University.
Jump up ^ Constantinou, Anthony; Fenton, N.; Neil, M. (2012). "pi-football: A Bayesian network model for forecasting Association Football match outcomes". Knowledge-Based Systems. 36: 322–339. doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2012.07.008. Retrieved 20 July 2015.
Jump up ^ Constantinou, Anthony; Fenton, N.; Neil, M. (2013). "Profiting from an inefficient Association Football gambling market: Prediction, Risk and Uncertainty using Bayesian networks". Knowledge-Based Systems. 50: 60–86. doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2013.05.008. Retrieved 20 July 2015.
Jump up ^ Peek, P.M. African Divination Systems: Ways of Knowing. page 2. Indiana University Press. 1991.
Jump up ^ Definition of divination
References[edit]
Grunwald, A. (2014). "Modes of orientation provided by futures studies: making sense of diversity and divergence". European Journal of Futures Research. 2 (1): 30. doi:10.1007/s40309-013-0030-5.
Rescher, Nicholas (1998). Predicting the future: An introduction to the theory of forecasting. State University of New York Press. ISBN 0-7914-3553-9.
Simandan, D. (2018). "Wisdom and foresight in Chinese thought: sensing the immediate future". Journal of Futures Studies. 22 (3): 35–50. doi:10.6531/JFS.2018.22(3).00A35.

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