Instruction: Show survival curve for China female in 2015

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: China Female
Reference Year: 2015
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            2         0.00002         79.6
    1          99,998            8         0.00008         80.4
    5          99,990           24         0.00024         71.6
   10          99,966           66         0.00066         65.6
   20          99,900          118         0.00118         58.9
   30          99,782          167         0.00167         50.4
   40          99,615          280         0.00281         36.7
   50          99,335          395         0.00398         30.7
   60          98,940          750         0.00758         16.5
   70          98,190        1,080         0.01100          6.8
   80          97,110        1,459         0.01502          4.9
   90          95,651        2,109         0.02205          3.9
  100          93,542        3,253         0.03478          2.5
  110          90,289       90,289         1.00000          2.5

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 76.2 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.9%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 97.1%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.73

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 279,869 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for China female in 2015

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: China Female
Reference Year: 2015
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            2         0.00002         79.6
    1          99,998            8         0.00008         80.4
    5          99,990           24         0.00024         71.6
   10          99,966           66         0.00066         65.6
   20          99,900          118         0.00118         58.9
   30          99,782          167         0.00167         50.4
   40          99,615          280         0.00281         36.7
   50          99,335          395         0.00398         30.7
   60          98,940          750         0.00758         16.5
   70          98,190        1,080         0.01100          6.8
   80          97,110        1,459         0.01502          4.9
   90          95,651        2,109         0.02205          3.9
  100          93,542        3,253         0.03478          2.5
  110          90,289       90,289         1.00000          2.5

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 76.2 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.9%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 97.1%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.73

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 279,869 death certificates.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 94%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.08
• Credibility Factor: 0.94
• Indicated Change: +7.0%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $1.7 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +0.9%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 94%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.08
• Credibility Factor: 0.94
• Indicated Change: +7.0%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $1.7 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +0.9%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions


Instruction: Analyze mortality trends in France from 2001-2023

Response:
MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: France
Analysis Period: 2001-2023

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: +1.4%
• Total Change: +24.5%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 1.3 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +56 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 33% of improvement
• Public health measures: 26%
• Lifestyle changes: +17%
• Environmental factors: +14%

Human: Analyze mortality trends in France from 2001-2023

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: France
Analysis Period: 2001-2023

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: +1.4%
• Total Change: +24.5%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 1.3 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +56 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 33% of improvement
• Public health measures: 26%
• Lifestyle changes: +17%
• Environmental factors: +14%


Instruction: A fair coin is flipped 10 times. What is the probability of exactly 6 heads?

Response: This is binomial with n=10, p=0.5. P(X=6) = C(10,6) × (0.5)^6 × (0.5)^4 = 210 × (0.5)^10 = 210/1024 = 105/512 ≈ 0.205

Human: A fair coin is flipped 10 times. What is the probability of exactly 6 heads?

Actuarial AI: This is binomial with n=10, p=0.5. P(X=6) = C(10,6) × (0.5)^6 × (0.5)^4 = 210 × (0.5)^10 = 210/1024 = 105/512 ≈ 0.205


Instruction: Calculate the 5-year death probability for a 93 year oldsmoker

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 93 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_93): 0.003564 (0.3564%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_93): 0.017693 (1.769%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_93): 0.982307 (98.231%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_93): 0.003570
• Hazard Rate (h_93): 0.003570
• Cumulative Hazard (H_93): 0.017851
• Median Future Lifetime: 194.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 3.6x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 256%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.015039
• Upper Bound: 0.020347

Analysis based on 172,862 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 5-year death probability for a 93 year oldsmoker

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 93 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_93): 0.003564 (0.3564%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_93): 0.017693 (1.769%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_93): 0.982307 (98.231%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_93): 0.003570
• Hazard Rate (h_93): 0.003570
• Cumulative Hazard (H_93): 0.017851
• Median Future Lifetime: 194.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 3.6x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 256%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.015039
• Upper Bound: 0.020347

Analysis based on 172,862 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Show survival curve for Germany population in 2021

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Germany Combined
Reference Year: 2021
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         83.0
    1          99,997           14         0.00014         83.3
    5          99,983           30         0.00030         75.8
   10          99,953           67         0.00067         66.2
   20          99,886          116         0.00116         59.3
   30          99,770          236         0.00237         45.5
   40          99,534          398         0.00400         40.1
   50          99,136          509         0.00513         27.9
   60          98,627          925         0.00938         15.7
   70          97,702        1,091         0.01117          8.6
   80          96,611        1,493         0.01545          1.6
   90          95,118        2,619         0.02753          1.5
  100          92,499        3,807         0.04116          4.5
  110          88,692       88,692         1.00000          2.2

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 83.1 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.6%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.6%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.71

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 183,324 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for Germany population in 2021

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Germany Combined
Reference Year: 2021
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         83.0
    1          99,997           14         0.00014         83.3
    5          99,983           30         0.00030         75.8
   10          99,953           67         0.00067         66.2
   20          99,886          116         0.00116         59.3
   30          99,770          236         0.00237         45.5
   40          99,534          398         0.00400         40.1
   50          99,136          509         0.00513         27.9
   60          98,627          925         0.00938         15.7
   70          97,702        1,091         0.01117          8.6
   80          96,611        1,493         0.01545          1.6
   90          95,118        2,619         0.02753          1.5
  100          92,499        3,807         0.04116          4.5
  110          88,692       88,692         1.00000          2.2

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 83.1 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.6%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.6%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.71

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 183,324 death certificates.


Instruction: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 64 year old female, $5,000,000 coverage, 15 year term, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Term Length: 15 years
• Issue Age: 64
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_64): 0.002763
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 72% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $8290.23
• Expense Charge: $2072.56
• Reserve Accumulation: $2763.41
• Profit Margin: $690.85
• Gross Annual Premium: $13817.05

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $13817.05
• Semi-Annual: $7184.87 (x2 = $14369.74/year)
• Quarterly: $3661.52 (x4 = $14646.08/year)
• Monthly: $1243.53 (x12 = $14922.42/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $10362.79
• First Year Reserve: $2763.41
• Terminal Reserve (Year 15): $1631157.07

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.6%
Profit Margin: 13.5%
Lapse Assumption: 5.0% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 64 year old female, $5,000,000 coverage, 15 year term, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Term Length: 15 years
• Issue Age: 64
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_64): 0.002763
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 72% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $8290.23
• Expense Charge: $2072.56
• Reserve Accumulation: $2763.41
• Profit Margin: $690.85
• Gross Annual Premium: $13817.05

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $13817.05
• Semi-Annual: $7184.87 (x2 = $14369.74/year)
• Quarterly: $3661.52 (x4 = $14646.08/year)
• Monthly: $1243.53 (x12 = $14922.42/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $10362.79
• First Year Reserve: $2763.41
• Terminal Reserve (Year 15): $1631157.07

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.6%
Profit Margin: 13.5%
Lapse Assumption: 5.0% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 57 year old male, $100,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 57
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_57): 0.003553
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 75% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $596.87
• Expense Charge: $149.22
• Reserve Accumulation: $198.96
• Profit Margin: $49.74
• Gross Annual Premium: $994.78

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $994.78
• Semi-Annual: $517.29 (x2 = $1034.57/year)
• Quarterly: $263.62 (x4 = $1054.47/year)
• Monthly: $89.53 (x12 = $1074.37/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $746.09
• First Year Reserve: $198.96
• Terminal Reserve (Year 8): $38916.55

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.2%
Profit Margin: 9.5%
Lapse Assumption: 7.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 57 year old male, $100,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 57
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_57): 0.003553
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 75% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $596.87
• Expense Charge: $149.22
• Reserve Accumulation: $198.96
• Profit Margin: $49.74
• Gross Annual Premium: $994.78

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $994.78
• Semi-Annual: $517.29 (x2 = $1034.57/year)
• Quarterly: $263.62 (x4 = $1054.47/year)
• Monthly: $89.53 (x12 = $1074.37/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $746.09
• First Year Reserve: $198.96
• Terminal Reserve (Year 8): $38916.55

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.2%
Profit Margin: 9.5%
Lapse Assumption: 7.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Compare cancer mortality between Canada, France, Italy, Mexico and South Korea

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: Canada, France, Italy, Mexico, South Korea
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Canada: 73.3 per 100,000 population
• France: 134.0 per 100,000 population
• Italy: 211.8 per 100,000 population
• Mexico: 72.3 per 100,000 population
• South Korea: 170.0 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Mexico: 72.3
2. Canada: 73.3
3. France: 134.0
4. South Korea: 170.0
5. Italy: 211.8

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 139.5
• Mean: 132.3
• Median: 134.0
• Standard Deviation: 54.4
• Coefficient of Variation: 41.2%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.93x difference
• Above Average: 3/5
• Global Ranking: Canada: #63, France: #88, Italy: #101

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 34% of variation
• Economic Development: 30% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 23% of variation
• Demographics: 15% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 9% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.4% annually

Human: Compare cancer mortality between Canada, France, Italy, Mexico and South Korea

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: Canada, France, Italy, Mexico, South Korea
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Canada: 73.3 per 100,000 population
• France: 134.0 per 100,000 population
• Italy: 211.8 per 100,000 population
• Mexico: 72.3 per 100,000 population
• South Korea: 170.0 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Mexico: 72.3
2. Canada: 73.3
3. France: 134.0
4. South Korea: 170.0
5. Italy: 211.8

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 139.5
• Mean: 132.3
• Median: 134.0
• Standard Deviation: 54.4
• Coefficient of Variation: 41.2%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.93x difference
• Above Average: 3/5
• Global Ranking: Canada: #63, France: #88, Italy: #101

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 34% of variation
• Economic Development: 30% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 23% of variation
• Demographics: 15% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 9% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.4% annually


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Chronic Respiratory in Australia for 25-44 in 2022?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Chronic Respiratory
Location: Australia
Year: 2022
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 36.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 32.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 529,623
• Percentage of All Deaths: 12.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 43.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 30.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.46:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +6.4%
• 10-Year Change: -10.2%
• Annual Percentage Change: +0.5%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #3
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 9738185
• Economic Burden: $41.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 43%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): J40-J47
Data Quality: Complete (88% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Chronic Respiratory in Australia for 25-44 in 2022?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Chronic Respiratory
Location: Australia
Year: 2022
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 36.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 32.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 529,623
• Percentage of All Deaths: 12.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 43.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 30.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.46:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +6.4%
• 10-Year Change: -10.2%
• Annual Percentage Change: +0.5%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #3
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 9738185
• Economic Burden: $41.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 43%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): J40-J47
Data Quality: Complete (88% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during 2021 cold snap in Italy for Q1 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2021 cold snap
Location: Italy
Period: Q1 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 84,818
• Observed Deaths: 106,657
• Excess Deaths: 21,839
• Excess Mortality Rate: 25.7%
• P-score: 25.7%
• Z-score: 2.49 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Farrington surveillance
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.3% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 2.5% (2,183 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 14.5% (5,459 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 29.3% (5,459 deaths)
• 75+ years: 28.9% (8,735 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 14,867 (73%)
• Indirect (probable): 2,756 (26%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,905 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [18,563, 25,114]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.96

Years of Life Lost: 297286
Economic Impact: $9.4 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 196346

Human: Calculate excess mortality during 2021 cold snap in Italy for Q1 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2021 cold snap
Location: Italy
Period: Q1 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 84,818
• Observed Deaths: 106,657
• Excess Deaths: 21,839
• Excess Mortality Rate: 25.7%
• P-score: 25.7%
• Z-score: 2.49 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Farrington surveillance
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.3% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 2.5% (2,183 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 14.5% (5,459 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 29.3% (5,459 deaths)
• 75+ years: 28.9% (8,735 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 14,867 (73%)
• Indirect (probable): 2,756 (26%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,905 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [18,563, 25,114]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.96

Years of Life Lost: 297286
Economic Impact: $9.4 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 196346


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for COVID-19 in USA for 45-64 in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: COVID-19
Location: USA
Year: 2021
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 99.9 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 86.4 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 3,961,144
• Percentage of All Deaths: 13.4%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 119.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 84.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.30:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +2.6%
• 10-Year Change: +6.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 78137267
• Economic Burden: $50.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 46%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age > 65: 80% of deaths
• Comorbidities: 75%
• Obesity: 30%
• Diabetes: 40%
• Immunocompromised: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): U07.1
Data Quality: Near-Complete (95% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for COVID-19 in USA for 45-64 in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: COVID-19
Location: USA
Year: 2021
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 99.9 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 86.4 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 3,961,144
• Percentage of All Deaths: 13.4%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 119.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 84.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.30:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +2.6%
• 10-Year Change: +6.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 78137267
• Economic Burden: $50.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 46%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age > 65: 80% of deaths
• Comorbidities: 75%
• Obesity: 30%
• Diabetes: 40%
• Immunocompromised: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): U07.1
Data Quality: Near-Complete (95% coverage)


Instruction: Project mortality rates for India in 2044

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2044
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 687.4 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 86.4 years
• Annual Improvement: 0.84%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 584.3
• Upper: 790.5

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for India in 2044

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2044
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 687.4 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 86.4 years
• Annual Improvement: 0.84%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 584.3
• Upper: 790.5

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Project mortality rates for India in 2041

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2041
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 551.9 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 82.2 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.82%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 469.1
• Upper: 634.7

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for India in 2041

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2041
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 551.9 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 82.2 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.82%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 469.1
• Upper: 634.7

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 41

Response:
MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 41
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.54%
• Current (2024): 1.38%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.87%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.8703
• 20-Year Factor: 0.7575
• 30-Year Factor: 0.6593

Cohort effect adjustment: Applied
Gender-specific: Yes

Human: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 41

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 41
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.54%
• Current (2024): 1.38%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.87%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.8703
• 20-Year Factor: 0.7575
• 30-Year Factor: 0.6593

Cohort effect adjustment: Applied
Gender-specific: Yes


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Accidents in Australia for 25-44 in 2024?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Accidents
Location: Australia
Year: 2024
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 49.9 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 45.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,742,480
• Percentage of All Deaths: 25.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 59.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 42.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.26:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -2.8%
• 10-Year Change: +22.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +0.8%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #10
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 48443797
• Economic Burden: $25.6 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 53%

RISK FACTORS:
• Motor vehicle: 35% of total
• Falls: 30%
• Poisoning: 25%
• Drowning: 5%
• Fire: 3%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): V01-X59
Data Quality: Near-Complete (85% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Accidents in Australia for 25-44 in 2024?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Accidents
Location: Australia
Year: 2024
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 49.9 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 45.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,742,480
• Percentage of All Deaths: 25.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 59.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 42.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.26:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -2.8%
• 10-Year Change: +22.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +0.8%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #10
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 48443797
• Economic Burden: $25.6 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 53%

RISK FACTORS:
• Motor vehicle: 35% of total
• Falls: 30%
• Poisoning: 25%
• Drowning: 5%
• Fire: 3%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): V01-X59
Data Quality: Near-Complete (85% coverage)


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 17 year old male in UK as of 2018?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: UK
• Age: 17 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2018

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 17 (e_17): 57.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 74.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 40.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 69.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_17): 91.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_17): 84.4%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_17): 71.2%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_17): 0.01696
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_17): 0.01682
• Hazard Rate: 0.01711

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 17: 64.3 years
• Regional Rank: Top 15 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 180,636 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.1%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 17 year old male in UK as of 2018?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: UK
• Age: 17 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2018

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 17 (e_17): 57.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 74.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 40.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 69.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_17): 91.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_17): 84.4%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_17): 71.2%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_17): 0.01696
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_17): 0.01682
• Hazard Rate: 0.01711

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 17: 64.3 years
• Regional Rank: Top 15 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 180,636 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.1%.


Instruction: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in Canada

Response:
GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: Canada
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 859.4
• Rural: 1110.2
• Suburban: 845.4

Rural areas show 29.2% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.

Human: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in Canada

Actuarial AI: GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: Canada
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 859.4
• Rural: 1110.2
• Suburban: 845.4

Rural areas show 29.2% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Experience Adjustment: 89%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.10
• Credibility Factor: 0.76
• Indicated Change: +4.7%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-5.0 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +0.7%

Recommendation: Update assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Experience Adjustment: 89%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.10
• Credibility Factor: 0.76
• Indicated Change: +4.7%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-5.0 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +0.7%

Recommendation: Update assumptions


Instruction: Summarize group life mortality experience study results

Response:
MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Group Life Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2022
Exposure: 197624 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 1.14
• Deaths Actual: 7,656
• Deaths Expected: 1,637

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.73
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 0.98

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.86, 1.15]

Human: Summarize group life mortality experience study results

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Group Life Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2022
Exposure: 197624 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 1.14
• Deaths Actual: 7,656
• Deaths Expected: 1,637

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.73
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 0.98

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.86, 1.15]


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Healthcare workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Healthcare
Fatal Injury Rate: 65.4 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 2,137

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 27%
• Struck by object: 16%
• Electrocution: 10%
• Caught-in/between: 13%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $304,308

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Healthcare workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Healthcare
Fatal Injury Rate: 65.4 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 2,137

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 27%
• Struck by object: 16%
• Electrocution: 10%
• Caught-in/between: 13%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $304,308


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during 2021 cold snap in Italy for Q4 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2021 cold snap
Location: Italy
Period: Q4 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 44,511
• Observed Deaths: 64,883
• Excess Deaths: 20,372
• Excess Mortality Rate: 45.8%
• P-score: 45.8%
• Z-score: 3.44 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.4% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: -3.6% (2,037 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 16.5% (5,093 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 21.7% (5,093 deaths)
• 75+ years: 37.0% (8,148 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 15,614 (78%)
• Indirect (probable): 4,684 (27%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,176 (14%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [17,316, 23,427]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 286888
Economic Impact: $7.3 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 222484

Human: Calculate excess mortality during 2021 cold snap in Italy for Q4 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2021 cold snap
Location: Italy
Period: Q4 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 44,511
• Observed Deaths: 64,883
• Excess Deaths: 20,372
• Excess Mortality Rate: 45.8%
• P-score: 45.8%
• Z-score: 3.44 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.4% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: -3.6% (2,037 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 16.5% (5,093 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 21.7% (5,093 deaths)
• 75+ years: 37.0% (8,148 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 15,614 (78%)
• Indirect (probable): 4,684 (27%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,176 (14%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [17,316, 23,427]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 286888
Economic Impact: $7.3 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 222484


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 48 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 38
• Current Age: 48
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $635.19
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $56798.77
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $32247.03

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $17387.53
• Per $1,000 Face: $173.88

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_48:10⌉ = 0.2066
• ä_48:10⌉ = 9.5712
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $17387.53

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8602.09
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3432.87
• Interest Earned: $1163.39
• ₁₀V = $17387.53

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $16518.15
• Tax Reserve: $15996.53
• GAAP Reserve: $18256.91

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 48 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 38
• Current Age: 48
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $635.19
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $56798.77
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $32247.03

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $17387.53
• Per $1,000 Face: $173.88

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_48:10⌉ = 0.2066
• ä_48:10⌉ = 9.5712
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $17387.53

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8602.09
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3432.87
• Interest Earned: $1163.39
• ₁₀V = $17387.53

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $16518.15
• Tax Reserve: $15996.53
• GAAP Reserve: $18256.91


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Septicemia in Australia for 65-74 in 2022?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Septicemia
Location: Australia
Year: 2022
Age Group: 65-74

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 12.3 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 11.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 484,338
• Percentage of All Deaths: 13.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 14.7 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 10.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.35:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -3.8%
• 10-Year Change: +10.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: +0.7%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #10
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 9231389
• Economic Burden: $92.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 55%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A40-A41
Data Quality: Complete (90% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Septicemia in Australia for 65-74 in 2022?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Septicemia
Location: Australia
Year: 2022
Age Group: 65-74

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 12.3 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 11.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 484,338
• Percentage of All Deaths: 13.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 14.7 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 10.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.35:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -3.8%
• 10-Year Change: +10.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: +0.7%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #10
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 9231389
• Economic Burden: $92.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 55%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A40-A41
Data Quality: Complete (90% coverage)


Instruction: Show survival curve for UK male in 2016

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: UK Male
Reference Year: 2016
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         75.7
    1          99,997           13         0.00013         83.2
    5          99,984           26         0.00026         78.5
   10          99,958           91         0.00091         67.6
   20          99,867          171         0.00171         58.3
   30          99,696          267         0.00268         46.3
   40          99,429          345         0.00347         42.2
   50          99,084          601         0.00607         29.6
   60          98,483        1,066         0.01082         17.8
   70          97,417        1,470         0.01509         12.2
   80          95,947        2,210         0.02303          4.6
   90          93,737        3,097         0.03304          3.4
  100          90,640        3,255         0.03591          2.8
  110          87,385       87,385         1.00000          4.6

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.0 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.5%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 95.9%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.82

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 175,257 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for UK male in 2016

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: UK Male
Reference Year: 2016
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         75.7
    1          99,997           13         0.00013         83.2
    5          99,984           26         0.00026         78.5
   10          99,958           91         0.00091         67.6
   20          99,867          171         0.00171         58.3
   30          99,696          267         0.00268         46.3
   40          99,429          345         0.00347         42.2
   50          99,084          601         0.00607         29.6
   60          98,483        1,066         0.01082         17.8
   70          97,417        1,470         0.01509         12.2
   80          95,947        2,210         0.02303          4.6
   90          93,737        3,097         0.03304          3.4
  100          90,640        3,255         0.03591          2.8
  110          87,385       87,385         1.00000          4.6

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.0 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.5%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 95.9%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.82

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 175,257 death certificates.


Instruction: What are the mortality characteristics for middle age population?

Response:
AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Middle Age (40-64 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 1.09 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Cancer, heart disease, accidents
• Preventable Deaths: 59%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.

Human: What are the mortality characteristics for middle age population?

Actuarial AI: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Middle Age (40-64 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 1.09 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Cancer, heart disease, accidents
• Preventable Deaths: 59%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 79?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 79 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history, heart disease, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_79): 0.005596 (0.5596%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_79): 0.005596 (0.560%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_79): 0.994404 (99.440%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_79): 0.005611
• Hazard Rate (h_79): 0.005611
• Cumulative Hazard (H_79): 0.005611
• Median Future Lifetime: 123.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 5.6x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 460%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.004756
• Upper Bound: 0.006435

Analysis based on 147,736 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 79?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 79 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history, heart disease, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_79): 0.005596 (0.5596%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_79): 0.005596 (0.560%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_79): 0.994404 (99.440%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_79): 0.005611
• Hazard Rate (h_79): 0.005611
• Cumulative Hazard (H_79): 0.005611
• Median Future Lifetime: 123.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 5.6x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 460%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.004756
• Upper Bound: 0.006435

Analysis based on 147,736 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 10 years for someone age 64?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 64 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_64): 0.001026 (0.1026%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_64): 0.010209 (1.021%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_64): 0.989791 (98.979%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_64): 0.001026
• Hazard Rate (h_64): 0.001026
• Cumulative Hazard (H_64): 0.010262
• Median Future Lifetime: 675.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.0x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 3%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.008678
• Upper Bound: 0.011740

Analysis based on 185,871 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 10 years for someone age 64?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 64 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_64): 0.001026 (0.1026%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_64): 0.010209 (1.021%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_64): 0.989791 (98.979%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_64): 0.001026
• Hazard Rate (h_64): 0.001026
• Cumulative Hazard (H_64): 0.010262
• Median Future Lifetime: 675.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.0x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 3%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.008678
• Upper Bound: 0.011740

Analysis based on 185,871 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1962 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1962
Current Age: 62 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,027,794

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 70.9 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 79.4 years
• Survival to Current Age: 93.4%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• High smoking prevalence
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 25.6 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 11.9 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 69%

Cohort effects explain 23% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1962 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1962
Current Age: 62 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,027,794

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 70.9 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 79.4 years
• Survival to Current Age: 93.4%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• High smoking prevalence
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 25.6 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 11.9 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 69%

Cohort effects explain 23% of mortality variation.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for COVID-19 in UK for Under 25 in 2024?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: COVID-19
Location: UK
Year: 2024
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 101.9 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 87.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 4,783,961
• Percentage of All Deaths: 10.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 122.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 86.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.27:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -4.5%
• 10-Year Change: -10.2%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.2%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #11
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 132342481
• Economic Burden: $62.1 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 28%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age > 65: 80% of deaths
• Comorbidities: 75%
• Obesity: 30%
• Diabetes: 40%
• Immunocompromised: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): U07.1
Data Quality: Partial (95% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for COVID-19 in UK for Under 25 in 2024?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: COVID-19
Location: UK
Year: 2024
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 101.9 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 87.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 4,783,961
• Percentage of All Deaths: 10.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 122.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 86.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.27:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -4.5%
• 10-Year Change: -10.2%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.2%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #11
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 132342481
• Economic Burden: $62.1 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 28%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age > 65: 80% of deaths
• Comorbidities: 75%
• Obesity: 30%
• Diabetes: 40%
• Immunocompromised: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): U07.1
Data Quality: Partial (95% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 67 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 67
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_67): 0.004132
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 51% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $43385.35
• Expense Charge: $10846.34
• Reserve Accumulation: $14461.78
• Profit Margin: $3615.45
• Gross Annual Premium: $72308.91

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $72308.91
• Semi-Annual: $37600.64 (x2 = $75201.27/year)
• Quarterly: $19161.86 (x4 = $76647.45/year)
• Monthly: $6507.80 (x12 = $78093.63/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $54231.69
• First Year Reserve: $14461.78
• Terminal Reserve (Year -2): $1808015.31

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.1%
Profit Margin: 12.1%
Lapse Assumption: 3.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 67 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 67
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_67): 0.004132
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 51% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $43385.35
• Expense Charge: $10846.34
• Reserve Accumulation: $14461.78
• Profit Margin: $3615.45
• Gross Annual Premium: $72308.91

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $72308.91
• Semi-Annual: $37600.64 (x2 = $75201.27/year)
• Quarterly: $19161.86 (x4 = $76647.45/year)
• Monthly: $6507.80 (x12 = $78093.63/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $54231.69
• First Year Reserve: $14461.78
• Terminal Reserve (Year -2): $1808015.31

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.1%
Profit Margin: 12.1%
Lapse Assumption: 3.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 46 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 46
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_46): 0.003033
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 84% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $10191.50
• Expense Charge: $2547.87
• Reserve Accumulation: $3397.17
• Profit Margin: $849.29
• Gross Annual Premium: $16985.83

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $16985.83
• Semi-Annual: $8832.63 (x2 = $17665.26/year)
• Quarterly: $4501.24 (x4 = $18004.98/year)
• Monthly: $1528.72 (x12 = $18344.70/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $12739.37
• First Year Reserve: $3397.17
• Terminal Reserve (Year 19): $1047147.23

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.3%
Profit Margin: 11.6%
Lapse Assumption: 5.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 46 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 46
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_46): 0.003033
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 84% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $10191.50
• Expense Charge: $2547.87
• Reserve Accumulation: $3397.17
• Profit Margin: $849.29
• Gross Annual Premium: $16985.83

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $16985.83
• Semi-Annual: $8832.63 (x2 = $17665.26/year)
• Quarterly: $4501.24 (x4 = $18004.98/year)
• Monthly: $1528.72 (x12 = $18344.70/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $12739.37
• First Year Reserve: $3397.17
• Terminal Reserve (Year 19): $1047147.23

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.3%
Profit Margin: 11.6%
Lapse Assumption: 5.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Compare maternal mortality between Germany, Spain, USA and Brazil

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Maternal Mortality
Countries: Germany, Spain, USA, Brazil
Reference Year: 2020

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Germany: 43.9 per 100,000 live births
• Spain: 6.6 per 100,000 live births
• USA: 44.4 per 100,000 live births
• Brazil: 44.5 per 100,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. Spain: 6.6
2. Germany: 43.9
3. USA: 44.4
4. Brazil: 44.5

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 37.9
• Mean: 34.8
• Median: 44.1
• Standard Deviation: 16.3
• Coefficient of Variation: 46.8%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 6.77x difference
• Above Average: 3/4
• Global Ranking: Germany: #17, Spain: #164, USA: #171

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 30% of variation
• Economic Development: 16% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 24% of variation
• Demographics: 20% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 10% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.4% annually

Human: Compare maternal mortality between Germany, Spain, USA and Brazil

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Maternal Mortality
Countries: Germany, Spain, USA, Brazil
Reference Year: 2020

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Germany: 43.9 per 100,000 live births
• Spain: 6.6 per 100,000 live births
• USA: 44.4 per 100,000 live births
• Brazil: 44.5 per 100,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. Spain: 6.6
2. Germany: 43.9
3. USA: 44.4
4. Brazil: 44.5

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 37.9
• Mean: 34.8
• Median: 44.1
• Standard Deviation: 16.3
• Coefficient of Variation: 46.8%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 6.77x difference
• Above Average: 3/4
• Global Ranking: Germany: #17, Spain: #164, USA: #171

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 30% of variation
• Economic Development: 16% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 24% of variation
• Demographics: 20% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 10% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.4% annually


Instruction: Analyze mortality trends in UK from 2000-2022

Response:
MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: UK
Analysis Period: 2000-2022

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: +0.8%
• Total Change: -19.7%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 1.6 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by -56 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 33% of improvement
• Public health measures: 29%
• Lifestyle changes: -13%
• Environmental factors: +12%

Human: Analyze mortality trends in UK from 2000-2022

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: UK
Analysis Period: 2000-2022

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: +0.8%
• Total Change: -19.7%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 1.6 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by -56 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 33% of improvement
• Public health measures: 29%
• Lifestyle changes: -13%
• Environmental factors: +12%


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1923 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1923
Current Age: 101 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,070,261

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 66.4 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 78.6 years
• Survival to Current Age: 69.3%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• Great Depression impact

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 41.6 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 24.9 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 31%

Cohort effects explain 14% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1923 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1923
Current Age: 101 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,070,261

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 66.4 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 78.6 years
• Survival to Current Age: 69.3%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• Great Depression impact

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 41.6 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 24.9 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 31%

Cohort effects explain 14% of mortality variation.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Suicide in Germany for 45-64 in 2023?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Suicide
Location: Germany
Year: 2023
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 13.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 11.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 501,528
• Percentage of All Deaths: 8.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 15.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 11.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.29:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +9.5%
• 10-Year Change: -6.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.9%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #1
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 8650493
• Economic Burden: $82.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 46%

RISK FACTORS:
• Mental illness: 90% of cases
• Substance abuse: 30%
• Previous attempt: 40x risk
• Access to means: Critical
• Social isolation: 25%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): X60-X84
Data Quality: Complete (94% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Suicide in Germany for 45-64 in 2023?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Suicide
Location: Germany
Year: 2023
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 13.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 11.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 501,528
• Percentage of All Deaths: 8.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 15.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 11.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.29:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +9.5%
• 10-Year Change: -6.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.9%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #1
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 8650493
• Economic Burden: $82.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 46%

RISK FACTORS:
• Mental illness: 90% of cases
• Substance abuse: 30%
• Previous attempt: 40x risk
• Access to means: Critical
• Social isolation: 25%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): X60-X84
Data Quality: Complete (94% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 34 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 24
• Current Age: 34
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1422.38
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $49572.57
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $29365.46

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $28516.17
• Per $1,000 Face: $285.16

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_34:10⌉ = 0.2124
• ä_34:10⌉ = 9.7992
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $28516.17

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $11261.44
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $5412.90
• Interest Earned: $1038.47
• ₁₀V = $28516.17

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $27090.36
• Tax Reserve: $26234.88
• GAAP Reserve: $29941.98

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 34 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 24
• Current Age: 34
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1422.38
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $49572.57
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $29365.46

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $28516.17
• Per $1,000 Face: $285.16

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_34:10⌉ = 0.2124
• ä_34:10⌉ = 9.7992
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $28516.17

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $11261.44
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $5412.90
• Interest Earned: $1038.47
• ₁₀V = $28516.17

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $27090.36
• Tax Reserve: $26234.88
• GAAP Reserve: $29941.98


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 50 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 40
• Current Age: 50
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $814.67
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $48064.23
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $21331.88

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $33301.12
• Per $1,000 Face: $333.01

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_50:10⌉ = 0.1528
• ä_50:10⌉ = 9.0572
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $33301.12

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10310.98
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4904.75
• Interest Earned: $1674.13
• ₁₀V = $33301.12

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $31636.06
• Tax Reserve: $30637.03
• GAAP Reserve: $34966.17

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 50 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 40
• Current Age: 50
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $814.67
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $48064.23
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $21331.88

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $33301.12
• Per $1,000 Face: $333.01

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_50:10⌉ = 0.1528
• ä_50:10⌉ = 9.0572
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $33301.12

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10310.98
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4904.75
• Interest Earned: $1674.13
• ₁₀V = $33301.12

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $31636.06
• Tax Reserve: $30637.03
• GAAP Reserve: $34966.17


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 67 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 57
• Current Age: 67
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $841.69
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $57967.49
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $27903.00

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $21166.13
• Per $1,000 Face: $211.66

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_67:10⌉ = 0.2305
• ä_67:10⌉ = 8.8517
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $21166.13

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8295.85
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4098.72
• Interest Earned: $1755.71
• ₁₀V = $21166.13

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $20107.82
• Tax Reserve: $19472.84
• GAAP Reserve: $22224.43

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 67 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 57
• Current Age: 67
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $841.69
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $57967.49
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $27903.00

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $21166.13
• Per $1,000 Face: $211.66

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_67:10⌉ = 0.2305
• ä_67:10⌉ = 8.8517
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $21166.13

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8295.85
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4098.72
• Interest Earned: $1755.71
• ₁₀V = $21166.13

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $20107.82
• Tax Reserve: $19472.84
• GAAP Reserve: $22224.43


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 96 year old female in China as of 2024?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: China
• Age: 96 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2024

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 96 (e_96): 3.7 years
• Expected Age at Death: 99.7 years
• Median Survival Time: 2.6 years
• Modal Age at Death: 94.7 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_96): 34.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_96): 12.1%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_96): 1.5%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_96): 0.21158
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_96): 0.19070
• Hazard Rate: 0.23773

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 96: -19.1 years
• Regional Rank: Top 26 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 352,061 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.1%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 96 year old female in China as of 2024?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: China
• Age: 96 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2024

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 96 (e_96): 3.7 years
• Expected Age at Death: 99.7 years
• Median Survival Time: 2.6 years
• Modal Age at Death: 94.7 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_96): 34.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_96): 12.1%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_96): 1.5%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_96): 0.21158
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_96): 0.19070
• Hazard Rate: 0.23773

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 96: -19.1 years
• Regional Rank: Top 26 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 352,061 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.1%.


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 48 year old male, $500,000 coverage, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $500,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 48
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_48): 0.002924
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 54% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2193.31
• Expense Charge: $548.33
• Reserve Accumulation: $731.10
• Profit Margin: $182.78
• Gross Annual Premium: $3655.52

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3655.52
• Semi-Annual: $1900.87 (x2 = $3801.74/year)
• Quarterly: $968.71 (x4 = $3874.85/year)
• Monthly: $329.00 (x12 = $3947.96/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2741.64
• First Year Reserve: $731.10
• Terminal Reserve (Year 17): $317481.16

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.3%
Profit Margin: 13.7%
Lapse Assumption: 4.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 48 year old male, $500,000 coverage, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $500,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 48
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_48): 0.002924
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 54% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2193.31
• Expense Charge: $548.33
• Reserve Accumulation: $731.10
• Profit Margin: $182.78
• Gross Annual Premium: $3655.52

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3655.52
• Semi-Annual: $1900.87 (x2 = $3801.74/year)
• Quarterly: $968.71 (x4 = $3874.85/year)
• Monthly: $329.00 (x12 = $3947.96/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2741.64
• First Year Reserve: $731.10
• Terminal Reserve (Year 17): $317481.16

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.3%
Profit Margin: 13.7%
Lapse Assumption: 4.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 55 year old female in Japan as of 2021?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Japan
• Age: 55 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2021

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 55 (e_55): 36.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 91.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 25.3 years
• Modal Age at Death: 86.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_55): 87.5%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_55): 76.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_55): 58.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_55): 0.02667
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_55): 0.02632
• Hazard Rate: 0.02704

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 55: 29.6 years
• Regional Rank: Top 46 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 499,580 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.7%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 55 year old female in Japan as of 2021?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Japan
• Age: 55 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2021

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 55 (e_55): 36.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 91.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 25.3 years
• Modal Age at Death: 86.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_55): 87.5%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_55): 76.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_55): 58.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_55): 0.02667
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_55): 0.02632
• Hazard Rate: 0.02704

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 55: 29.6 years
• Regional Rank: Top 46 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 499,580 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.7%.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 21 year old both in China as of 2020?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: China
• Age: 21 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 21 (e_21): 52.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 73.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 36.4 years
• Modal Age at Death: 68.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_21): 91.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_21): 83.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_21): 68.8%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_21): 0.01867
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_21): 0.01849
• Hazard Rate: 0.01884

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 21: 55.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 6 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 179,877 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.7%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 21 year old both in China as of 2020?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: China
• Age: 21 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 21 (e_21): 52.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 73.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 36.4 years
• Modal Age at Death: 68.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_21): 91.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_21): 83.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_21): 68.8%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_21): 0.01867
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_21): 0.01849
• Hazard Rate: 0.01884

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 21: 55.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 6 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 179,877 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.7%.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Diabetes in France for 75+ in 2020?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Diabetes
Location: France
Year: 2020
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 24.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 20.9 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 216,110
• Percentage of All Deaths: 21.1%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 28.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 20.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.49:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +12.3%
• 10-Year Change: +15.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: -3.0%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #13
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 3838757
• Economic Burden: $65.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 58%

RISK FACTORS:
• Obesity: 60% attributable
• Physical inactivity: 30%
• Diet: 40%
• Genetics: 25%
• Age: Progressive

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): E10-E14
Data Quality: Complete (91% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Diabetes in France for 75+ in 2020?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Diabetes
Location: France
Year: 2020
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 24.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 20.9 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 216,110
• Percentage of All Deaths: 21.1%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 28.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 20.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.49:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +12.3%
• 10-Year Change: +15.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: -3.0%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #13
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 3838757
• Economic Burden: $65.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 58%

RISK FACTORS:
• Obesity: 60% attributable
• Physical inactivity: 30%
• Diet: 40%
• Genetics: 25%
• Age: Progressive

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): E10-E14
Data Quality: Complete (91% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 40 year old female, $250,000 coverage, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $250,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 40
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_40): 0.001656
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 61% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $869.18
• Expense Charge: $217.29
• Reserve Accumulation: $289.73
• Profit Margin: $72.43
• Gross Annual Premium: $1448.63

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $1448.63
• Semi-Annual: $753.29 (x2 = $1506.57/year)
• Quarterly: $383.89 (x4 = $1535.54/year)
• Monthly: $130.38 (x12 = $1564.52/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1086.47
• First Year Reserve: $289.73
• Terminal Reserve (Year 25): $141586.02

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.3%
Profit Margin: 10.2%
Lapse Assumption: 6.4% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 40 year old female, $250,000 coverage, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $250,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 40
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_40): 0.001656
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 61% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $869.18
• Expense Charge: $217.29
• Reserve Accumulation: $289.73
• Profit Margin: $72.43
• Gross Annual Premium: $1448.63

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $1448.63
• Semi-Annual: $753.29 (x2 = $1506.57/year)
• Quarterly: $383.89 (x4 = $1535.54/year)
• Monthly: $130.38 (x12 = $1564.52/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1086.47
• First Year Reserve: $289.73
• Terminal Reserve (Year 25): $141586.02

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.3%
Profit Margin: 10.2%
Lapse Assumption: 6.4% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by income in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Income
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY INCOME (per 100,000):
• <$25k: 725.7
• $25-50k: 724.8
• $50-75k: 274.1
• $75-100k: 516.0
• >$100k: 353.7

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.90
• Rate Difference: 684.4 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 29.8%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.392

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY INCOME:
• <$25k: 71.0 years
• $25-50k: 71.3 years
• $50-75k: 77.1 years
• $75-100k: 80.7 years
• >$100k: 77.6 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 26% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 32% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 21% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 15% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -0.8%

Social determinants explain 77% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by income in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Income
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY INCOME (per 100,000):
• <$25k: 725.7
• $25-50k: 724.8
• $50-75k: 274.1
• $75-100k: 516.0
• >$100k: 353.7

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.90
• Rate Difference: 684.4 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 29.8%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.392

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY INCOME:
• <$25k: 71.0 years
• $25-50k: 71.3 years
• $50-75k: 77.1 years
• $75-100k: 80.7 years
• >$100k: 77.6 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 26% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 32% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 21% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 15% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -0.8%

Social determinants explain 77% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Agriculture workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Agriculture
Fatal Injury Rate: 138.3 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 7,938

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 27%
• Struck by object: 27%
• Electrocution: 10%
• Caught-in/between: 17%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $338,862

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Agriculture workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Agriculture
Fatal Injury Rate: 138.3 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 7,938

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 27%
• Struck by object: 27%
• Electrocution: 10%
• Caught-in/between: 17%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $338,862


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by income in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Income
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2023

MORTALITY RATES BY INCOME (per 100,000):
• <$25k: 908.8
• $25-50k: 928.2
• $50-75k: 1043.5
• $75-100k: 492.6
• >$100k: 933.3

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.61
• Rate Difference: 741.8 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 36.6%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.240

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY INCOME:
• <$25k: 80.7 years
• $25-50k: 76.8 years
• $50-75k: 73.4 years
• $75-100k: 75.7 years
• >$100k: 79.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 23% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 34% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 22% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 17% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 9% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: +0.6%

Social determinants explain 65% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by income in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Income
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2023

MORTALITY RATES BY INCOME (per 100,000):
• <$25k: 908.8
• $25-50k: 928.2
• $50-75k: 1043.5
• $75-100k: 492.6
• >$100k: 933.3

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.61
• Rate Difference: 741.8 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 36.6%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.240

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY INCOME:
• <$25k: 80.7 years
• $25-50k: 76.8 years
• $50-75k: 73.4 years
• $75-100k: 75.7 years
• >$100k: 79.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 23% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 34% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 22% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 17% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 9% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: +0.6%

Social determinants explain 65% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Calculate the 5-year death probability for a 92 year old with cancer history

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 92 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_92): 0.002494 (0.2494%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_92): 0.012407 (1.241%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_92): 0.987593 (98.759%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_92): 0.002497
• Hazard Rate (h_92): 0.002497
• Cumulative Hazard (H_92): 0.012484
• Median Future Lifetime: 277.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.5x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 149%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.010546
• Upper Bound: 0.014268

Analysis based on 97,513 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 5-year death probability for a 92 year old with cancer history

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 92 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_92): 0.002494 (0.2494%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_92): 0.012407 (1.241%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_92): 0.987593 (98.759%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_92): 0.002497
• Hazard Rate (h_92): 0.002497
• Cumulative Hazard (H_92): 0.012484
• Median Future Lifetime: 277.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.5x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 149%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.010546
• Upper Bound: 0.014268

Analysis based on 97,513 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Diabetes in France for 25-44 in 2019?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Diabetes
Location: France
Year: 2019
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 21.6 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 19.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 912,955
• Percentage of All Deaths: 10.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 25.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 18.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.33:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +11.4%
• 10-Year Change: -19.2%
• Annual Percentage Change: -0.6%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #14
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 26585947
• Economic Burden: $72.6 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 30%

RISK FACTORS:
• Obesity: 60% attributable
• Physical inactivity: 30%
• Diet: 40%
• Genetics: 25%
• Age: Progressive

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): E10-E14
Data Quality: Complete (92% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Diabetes in France for 25-44 in 2019?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Diabetes
Location: France
Year: 2019
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 21.6 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 19.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 912,955
• Percentage of All Deaths: 10.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 25.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 18.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.33:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +11.4%
• 10-Year Change: -19.2%
• Annual Percentage Change: -0.6%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #14
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 26585947
• Economic Burden: $72.6 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 30%

RISK FACTORS:
• Obesity: 60% attributable
• Physical inactivity: 30%
• Diet: 40%
• Genetics: 25%
• Age: Progressive

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): E10-E14
Data Quality: Complete (92% coverage)


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Kidney Disease in USA for 25-44 in 2024?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Kidney Disease
Location: USA
Year: 2024
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 14.3 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 12.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 596,314
• Percentage of All Deaths: 12.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 17.1 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 12.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.32:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -11.3%
• 10-Year Change: +8.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.9%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 14176326
• Economic Burden: $15.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 54%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): N00-N19
Data Quality: Complete (98% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Kidney Disease in USA for 25-44 in 2024?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Kidney Disease
Location: USA
Year: 2024
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 14.3 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 12.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 596,314
• Percentage of All Deaths: 12.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 17.1 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 12.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.32:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -11.3%
• 10-Year Change: +8.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.9%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 14176326
• Economic Burden: $15.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 54%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): N00-N19
Data Quality: Complete (98% coverage)


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by ethnicity in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Ethnicity
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2022

MORTALITY RATES BY ETHNICITY (per 100,000):
• Non-Hispanic White: 1065.5
• Hispanic: 677.6
• Non-Hispanic Black: 825.9
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 544.9

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.88
• Rate Difference: 583.4 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 21.2%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.153

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY ETHNICITY:
• Non-Hispanic White: 79.4 years
• Hispanic: 75.5 years
• Non-Hispanic Black: 77.9 years
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 77.6 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 23% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 31% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 22% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 5% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: +1.6%

Social determinants explain 70% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by ethnicity in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Ethnicity
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2022

MORTALITY RATES BY ETHNICITY (per 100,000):
• Non-Hispanic White: 1065.5
• Hispanic: 677.6
• Non-Hispanic Black: 825.9
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 544.9

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.88
• Rate Difference: 583.4 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 21.2%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.153

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY ETHNICITY:
• Non-Hispanic White: 79.4 years
• Hispanic: 75.5 years
• Non-Hispanic Black: 77.9 years
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 77.6 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 23% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 31% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 22% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 5% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: +1.6%

Social determinants explain 70% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Project mortality rates for India in 2037

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2037
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 768.4 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 82.4 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.18%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 653.1
• Upper: 883.7

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for India in 2037

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2037
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 768.4 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 82.4 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.18%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 653.1
• Upper: 883.7

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1934 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1934
Current Age: 90 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,661,355

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 69.6 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 76.9 years
• Survival to Current Age: 90.9%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• Standard exposures

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 21.3 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 17.7 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 62%

Cohort effects explain 22% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1934 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1934
Current Age: 90 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,661,355

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 69.6 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 76.9 years
• Survival to Current Age: 90.9%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• Standard exposures

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 21.3 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 17.7 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 62%

Cohort effects explain 22% of mortality variation.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Parkinson's in UK for 75+ in 2023?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Parkinson's
Location: UK
Year: 2023
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 9.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 8.9 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 231,860
• Percentage of All Deaths: 12.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 11.4 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 8.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.23:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +3.3%
• 10-Year Change: -18.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: -0.8%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 5395656
• Economic Burden: $46.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 45%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): G20
Data Quality: Partial (96% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Parkinson's in UK for 75+ in 2023?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Parkinson's
Location: UK
Year: 2023
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 9.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 8.9 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 231,860
• Percentage of All Deaths: 12.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 11.4 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 8.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.23:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +3.3%
• 10-Year Change: -18.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: -0.8%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 5395656
• Economic Burden: $46.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 45%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): G20
Data Quality: Partial (96% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 39 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 29
• Current Age: 39
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1072.41
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $58099.35
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $29268.92

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $11532.13
• Per $1,000 Face: $115.32

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_39:10⌉ = 0.2016
• ä_39:10⌉ = 8.7678
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $11532.13

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $9847.66
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4978.60
• Interest Earned: $1861.07
• ₁₀V = $11532.13

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $10955.52
• Tax Reserve: $10609.56
• GAAP Reserve: $12108.74

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 39 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 29
• Current Age: 39
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1072.41
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $58099.35
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $29268.92

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $11532.13
• Per $1,000 Face: $115.32

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_39:10⌉ = 0.2016
• ä_39:10⌉ = 8.7678
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $11532.13

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $9847.66
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4978.60
• Interest Earned: $1861.07
• ₁₀V = $11532.13

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $10955.52
• Tax Reserve: $10609.56
• GAAP Reserve: $12108.74