Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Accidents in Germany for 75+ in 2020?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Accidents
Location: Germany
Year: 2020
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 50.8 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 45.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,982,948
• Percentage of All Deaths: 17.4%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 60.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 43.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.50:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -3.0%
• 10-Year Change: +15.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.7%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 21721635
• Economic Burden: $96.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 58%

RISK FACTORS:
• Motor vehicle: 35% of total
• Falls: 30%
• Poisoning: 25%
• Drowning: 5%
• Fire: 3%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): V01-X59
Data Quality: Near-Complete (89% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Accidents in Germany for 75+ in 2020?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Accidents
Location: Germany
Year: 2020
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 50.8 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 45.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,982,948
• Percentage of All Deaths: 17.4%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 60.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 43.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.50:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -3.0%
• 10-Year Change: +15.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.7%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 21721635
• Economic Burden: $96.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 58%

RISK FACTORS:
• Motor vehicle: 35% of total
• Falls: 30%
• Poisoning: 25%
• Drowning: 5%
• Fire: 3%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): V01-X59
Data Quality: Near-Complete (89% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in USA for Q2 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: USA
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 46,582
• Observed Deaths: 51,073
• Excess Deaths: 4,491
• Excess Mortality Rate: 9.6%
• P-score: 9.6%
• Z-score: 2.12 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Farrington surveillance
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.6% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 5.2% (449 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 7.0% (1,122 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 13.7% (1,122 deaths)
• 75+ years: 31.1% (1,796 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 2,450 (59%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,294 (19%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 821 (11%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [3,817, 5,164]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.96

Years of Life Lost: 60679
Economic Impact: $2.6 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 50569

Human: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in USA for Q2 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: USA
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 46,582
• Observed Deaths: 51,073
• Excess Deaths: 4,491
• Excess Mortality Rate: 9.6%
• P-score: 9.6%
• Z-score: 2.12 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Farrington surveillance
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.6% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 5.2% (449 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 7.0% (1,122 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 13.7% (1,122 deaths)
• 75+ years: 31.1% (1,796 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 2,450 (59%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,294 (19%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 821 (11%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [3,817, 5,164]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.96

Years of Life Lost: 60679
Economic Impact: $2.6 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 50569


Instruction: Project mortality rates for Japan in 2046

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: Japan
Target Year: 2046
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 616.2 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 86.9 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.03%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 523.8
• Upper: 708.6

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for Japan in 2046

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: Japan
Target Year: 2046
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 616.2 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 86.9 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.03%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 523.8
• Upper: 708.6

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Transportation workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Transportation
Fatal Injury Rate: 136.6 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 11,112

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 31%
• Struck by object: 17%
• Electrocution: 5%
• Caught-in/between: 15%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $337,591

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Transportation workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Transportation
Fatal Injury Rate: 136.6 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 11,112

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 31%
• Struck by object: 17%
• Electrocution: 5%
• Caught-in/between: 15%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $337,591


Instruction: Compare maternal mortality between UK, Brazil and Germany

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Maternal Mortality
Countries: UK, Brazil, Germany
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• UK: 26.4 per 100,000 live births
• Brazil: 46.2 per 100,000 live births
• Germany: 36.5 per 100,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. UK: 26.4
2. Germany: 36.5
3. Brazil: 46.2

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 19.8
• Mean: 36.4
• Median: 36.5
• Standard Deviation: 8.1
• Coefficient of Variation: 22.2%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.75x difference
• Above Average: 2/3
• Global Ranking: UK: #24, Brazil: #120, Germany: #29

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 28% of variation
• Economic Development: 21% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 19% of variation
• Demographics: 18% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 15% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 0.7% annually

Human: Compare maternal mortality between UK, Brazil and Germany

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Maternal Mortality
Countries: UK, Brazil, Germany
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• UK: 26.4 per 100,000 live births
• Brazil: 46.2 per 100,000 live births
• Germany: 36.5 per 100,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. UK: 26.4
2. Germany: 36.5
3. Brazil: 46.2

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 19.8
• Mean: 36.4
• Median: 36.5
• Standard Deviation: 8.1
• Coefficient of Variation: 22.2%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.75x difference
• Above Average: 2/3
• Global Ranking: UK: #24, Brazil: #120, Germany: #29

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 28% of variation
• Economic Development: 21% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 19% of variation
• Demographics: 18% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 15% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 0.7% annually


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Accidents in Canada for Under 25 in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Accidents
Location: Canada
Year: 2021
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 52.6 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 48.2 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 341,967
• Percentage of All Deaths: 21.1%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 63.1 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 44.7 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.33:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +4.6%
• 10-Year Change: +15.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.0%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #13
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 8867422
• Economic Burden: $35.7 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 29%

RISK FACTORS:
• Motor vehicle: 35% of total
• Falls: 30%
• Poisoning: 25%
• Drowning: 5%
• Fire: 3%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): V01-X59
Data Quality: Near-Complete (87% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Accidents in Canada for Under 25 in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Accidents
Location: Canada
Year: 2021
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 52.6 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 48.2 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 341,967
• Percentage of All Deaths: 21.1%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 63.1 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 44.7 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.33:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +4.6%
• 10-Year Change: +15.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.0%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #13
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 8867422
• Economic Burden: $35.7 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 29%

RISK FACTORS:
• Motor vehicle: 35% of total
• Falls: 30%
• Poisoning: 25%
• Drowning: 5%
• Fire: 3%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): V01-X59
Data Quality: Near-Complete (87% coverage)


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1943 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1943
Current Age: 81 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,383,309

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 65.0 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 75.9 years
• Survival to Current Age: 65.6%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• World War II

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 24.5 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 34.4 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 57%

Cohort effects explain 17% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1943 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1943
Current Age: 81 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,383,309

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 65.0 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 75.9 years
• Survival to Current Age: 65.6%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• World War II

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 24.5 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 34.4 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 57%

Cohort effects explain 17% of mortality variation.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for life insurance portfolio

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Life Insurance Portfolio
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 109%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.08
• Credibility Factor: 0.79
• Indicated Change: -3.8%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $4.9 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -1.5%

Recommendation: Update assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for life insurance portfolio

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Life Insurance Portfolio
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 109%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.08
• Credibility Factor: 0.79
• Indicated Change: -3.8%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $4.9 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -1.5%

Recommendation: Update assumptions


Instruction: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 46

Response:
MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 46
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.75%
• Current (2024): 1.74%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.84%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.8387
• 20-Year Factor: 0.7035
• 30-Year Factor: 0.5900

Cohort effect adjustment: Applied
Gender-specific: Yes

Human: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 46

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 46
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.75%
• Current (2024): 1.74%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.84%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.8387
• 20-Year Factor: 0.7035
• 30-Year Factor: 0.5900

Cohort effect adjustment: Applied
Gender-specific: Yes


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 54 year old female, $5,000,000 coverage, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 54
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_54): 0.002640
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 98% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $19800.70
• Expense Charge: $4950.18
• Reserve Accumulation: $6600.23
• Profit Margin: $1650.06
• Gross Annual Premium: $33001.17

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $33001.17
• Semi-Annual: $17160.61 (x2 = $34321.22/year)
• Quarterly: $8745.31 (x4 = $34981.24/year)
• Monthly: $2970.11 (x12 = $35641.26/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $24750.88
• First Year Reserve: $6600.23
• Terminal Reserve (Year 11): $1625209.38

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.8%
Profit Margin: 14.2%
Lapse Assumption: 3.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 54 year old female, $5,000,000 coverage, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 54
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_54): 0.002640
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 98% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $19800.70
• Expense Charge: $4950.18
• Reserve Accumulation: $6600.23
• Profit Margin: $1650.06
• Gross Annual Premium: $33001.17

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $33001.17
• Semi-Annual: $17160.61 (x2 = $34321.22/year)
• Quarterly: $8745.31 (x4 = $34981.24/year)
• Monthly: $2970.11 (x12 = $35641.26/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $24750.88
• First Year Reserve: $6600.23
• Terminal Reserve (Year 11): $1625209.38

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.8%
Profit Margin: 14.2%
Lapse Assumption: 3.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 67 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 67
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_67): 0.004132
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 77% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $34708.28
• Expense Charge: $8677.07
• Reserve Accumulation: $11569.43
• Profit Margin: $2892.36
• Gross Annual Premium: $57847.13

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $57847.13
• Semi-Annual: $30080.51 (x2 = $60161.02/year)
• Quarterly: $15329.49 (x4 = $61317.96/year)
• Monthly: $5206.24 (x12 = $62474.90/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $43385.35
• First Year Reserve: $11569.43
• Terminal Reserve (Year -2): $2167507.15

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.1%
Profit Margin: 10.7%
Lapse Assumption: 6.5% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 67 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 67
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_67): 0.004132
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 77% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $34708.28
• Expense Charge: $8677.07
• Reserve Accumulation: $11569.43
• Profit Margin: $2892.36
• Gross Annual Premium: $57847.13

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $57847.13
• Semi-Annual: $30080.51 (x2 = $60161.02/year)
• Quarterly: $15329.49 (x4 = $61317.96/year)
• Monthly: $5206.24 (x12 = $62474.90/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $43385.35
• First Year Reserve: $11569.43
• Terminal Reserve (Year -2): $2167507.15

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.1%
Profit Margin: 10.7%
Lapse Assumption: 6.5% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 25 year old over next 10 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 25 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_25): 0.000511 (0.0511%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_25): 0.005095 (0.510%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_25): 0.994905 (99.490%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_25): 0.000511
• Hazard Rate (h_25): 0.000511
• Cumulative Hazard (H_25): 0.005108
• Median Future Lifetime: 1357.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.5x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.004331
• Upper Bound: 0.005859

Analysis based on 189,882 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 25 year old over next 10 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 25 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_25): 0.000511 (0.0511%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_25): 0.005095 (0.510%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_25): 0.994905 (99.490%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_25): 0.000511
• Hazard Rate (h_25): 0.000511
• Cumulative Hazard (H_25): 0.005108
• Median Future Lifetime: 1357.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.5x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.004331
• Upper Bound: 0.005859

Analysis based on 189,882 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by education in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Education
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY EDUCATION (per 100,000):
• Less than High School: 747.7
• High School: 335.9
• Some College: 1137.1
• Bachelor's: 1063.2
• Graduate Degree: 795.9

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.83
• Rate Difference: 643.7 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 34.8%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.258

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY EDUCATION:
• Less than High School: 82.8 years
• High School: 73.4 years
• Some College: 84.1 years
• Bachelor's: 78.4 years
• Graduate Degree: 81.5 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 33% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 29% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 20% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 24% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 10% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -1.7%

Social determinants explain 67% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by education in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Education
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY EDUCATION (per 100,000):
• Less than High School: 747.7
• High School: 335.9
• Some College: 1137.1
• Bachelor's: 1063.2
• Graduate Degree: 795.9

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.83
• Rate Difference: 643.7 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 34.8%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.258

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY EDUCATION:
• Less than High School: 82.8 years
• High School: 73.4 years
• Some College: 84.1 years
• Bachelor's: 78.4 years
• Graduate Degree: 81.5 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 33% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 29% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 20% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 24% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 10% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -1.7%

Social determinants explain 67% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 46 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 46
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_46): 0.003033
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 69% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $6369.69
• Expense Charge: $1592.42
• Reserve Accumulation: $2123.23
• Profit Margin: $530.81
• Gross Annual Premium: $10616.14

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $10616.14
• Semi-Annual: $5520.39 (x2 = $11040.79/year)
• Quarterly: $2813.28 (x4 = $11253.11/year)
• Monthly: $955.45 (x12 = $11465.43/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $7962.11
• First Year Reserve: $2123.23
• Terminal Reserve (Year 19): $606455.69

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.6%
Profit Margin: 8.7%
Lapse Assumption: 6.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 46 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 46
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_46): 0.003033
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 69% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $6369.69
• Expense Charge: $1592.42
• Reserve Accumulation: $2123.23
• Profit Margin: $530.81
• Gross Annual Premium: $10616.14

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $10616.14
• Semi-Annual: $5520.39 (x2 = $11040.79/year)
• Quarterly: $2813.28 (x4 = $11253.11/year)
• Monthly: $955.45 (x12 = $11465.43/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $7962.11
• First Year Reserve: $2123.23
• Terminal Reserve (Year 19): $606455.69

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.6%
Profit Margin: 8.7%
Lapse Assumption: 6.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 48

Response:
MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 48
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.20%
• Current (2024): 1.32%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.63%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.8754
• 20-Year Factor: 0.7663
• 30-Year Factor: 0.6708

Cohort effect adjustment: Not applied
Gender-specific: No

Human: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 48

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 48
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.20%
• Current (2024): 1.32%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.63%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.8754
• 20-Year Factor: 0.7663
• 30-Year Factor: 0.6708

Cohort effect adjustment: Not applied
Gender-specific: No


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 37 year old male in Italy as of 2020?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Italy
• Age: 37 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 37 (e_37): 43.8 years
• Expected Age at Death: 80.8 years
• Median Survival Time: 30.3 years
• Modal Age at Death: 75.8 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_37): 89.4%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_37): 80.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_37): 64.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_37): 0.02234
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_37): 0.02209
• Hazard Rate: 0.02260

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 37: 46.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 8 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 366,266 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.8%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 37 year old male in Italy as of 2020?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Italy
• Age: 37 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 37 (e_37): 43.8 years
• Expected Age at Death: 80.8 years
• Median Survival Time: 30.3 years
• Modal Age at Death: 75.8 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_37): 89.4%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_37): 80.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_37): 64.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_37): 0.02234
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_37): 0.02209
• Hazard Rate: 0.02260

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 37: 46.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 8 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 366,266 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.8%.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 9 year old male in Australia as of 2022?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Australia
• Age: 9 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2022

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 9 (e_9): 69.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 78.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 48.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 73.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_9): 93.2%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_9): 86.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_9): 75.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_9): 0.01419
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_9): 0.01409
• Hazard Rate: 0.01429

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 9: 73.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 18 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 273,380 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.8%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 9 year old male in Australia as of 2022?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Australia
• Age: 9 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2022

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 9 (e_9): 69.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 78.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 48.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 73.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_9): 93.2%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_9): 86.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_9): 75.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_9): 0.01419
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_9): 0.01409
• Hazard Rate: 0.01429

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 9: 73.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 18 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 273,380 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.8%.


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 68 year old male, $100,000 coverage, Preferred Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 68
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_68): 0.003418
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.6x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 74% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $512.64
• Expense Charge: $128.16
• Reserve Accumulation: $170.88
• Profit Margin: $42.72
• Gross Annual Premium: $854.40

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $854.40
• Semi-Annual: $444.29 (x2 = $888.57/year)
• Quarterly: $226.42 (x4 = $905.66/year)
• Monthly: $76.90 (x12 = $922.75/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $640.80
• First Year Reserve: $170.88
• Terminal Reserve (Year -3): $46877.36

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.9%
Profit Margin: 12.4%
Lapse Assumption: 3.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 68 year old male, $100,000 coverage, Preferred Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 68
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_68): 0.003418
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.6x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 74% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $512.64
• Expense Charge: $128.16
• Reserve Accumulation: $170.88
• Profit Margin: $42.72
• Gross Annual Premium: $854.40

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $854.40
• Semi-Annual: $444.29 (x2 = $888.57/year)
• Quarterly: $226.42 (x4 = $905.66/year)
• Monthly: $76.90 (x12 = $922.75/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $640.80
• First Year Reserve: $170.88
• Terminal Reserve (Year -3): $46877.36

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.9%
Profit Margin: 12.4%
Lapse Assumption: 3.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pri-2012
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 110%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.07
• Credibility Factor: 0.98
• Indicated Change: +2.7%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-1.0 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +1.0%

Recommendation: Update assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pri-2012
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 110%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.07
• Credibility Factor: 0.98
• Indicated Change: +2.7%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-1.0 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +1.0%

Recommendation: Update assumptions


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 54 year old female, $100,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 54
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_54): 0.001980
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 69% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $297.01
• Expense Charge: $74.25
• Reserve Accumulation: $99.00
• Profit Margin: $24.75
• Gross Annual Premium: $495.02

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $495.02
• Semi-Annual: $257.41 (x2 = $514.82/year)
• Quarterly: $131.18 (x4 = $524.72/year)
• Monthly: $44.55 (x12 = $534.62/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $371.26
• First Year Reserve: $99.00
• Terminal Reserve (Year 11): $34301.69

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.8%
Profit Margin: 13.3%
Lapse Assumption: 7.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 54 year old female, $100,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 54
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_54): 0.001980
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 69% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $297.01
• Expense Charge: $74.25
• Reserve Accumulation: $99.00
• Profit Margin: $24.75
• Gross Annual Premium: $495.02

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $495.02
• Semi-Annual: $257.41 (x2 = $514.82/year)
• Quarterly: $131.18 (x4 = $524.72/year)
• Monthly: $44.55 (x12 = $534.62/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $371.26
• First Year Reserve: $99.00
• Terminal Reserve (Year 11): $34301.69

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.8%
Profit Margin: 13.3%
Lapse Assumption: 7.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Show survival curve for Japan population in 2021

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Japan Combined
Reference Year: 2021
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         79.2
    1          99,997           10         0.00010         80.4
    5          99,987           22         0.00022         70.2
   10          99,965           63         0.00063         65.6
   20          99,902          113         0.00113         63.5
   30          99,789          234         0.00234         45.6
   40          99,555          311         0.00312         38.1
   50          99,244          600         0.00605         29.0
   60          98,644          654         0.00663         16.8
   70          97,990        1,292         0.01319         13.7
   80          96,698        1,679         0.01736          0.3
   90          95,019        2,721         0.02864          2.9
  100          92,298        2,999         0.03249          2.6
  110          89,299       89,299         1.00000          4.2

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 83.5 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.6%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.7%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type I (Rectangular)
• Compression: High
• Rectangularization Index: 0.85

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 422,645 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for Japan population in 2021

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Japan Combined
Reference Year: 2021
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         79.2
    1          99,997           10         0.00010         80.4
    5          99,987           22         0.00022         70.2
   10          99,965           63         0.00063         65.6
   20          99,902          113         0.00113         63.5
   30          99,789          234         0.00234         45.6
   40          99,555          311         0.00312         38.1
   50          99,244          600         0.00605         29.0
   60          98,644          654         0.00663         16.8
   70          97,990        1,292         0.01319         13.7
   80          96,698        1,679         0.01736          0.3
   90          95,019        2,721         0.02864          2.9
  100          92,298        2,999         0.03249          2.6
  110          89,299       89,299         1.00000          4.2

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 83.5 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.6%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.7%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type I (Rectangular)
• Compression: High
• Rectangularization Index: 0.85

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 422,645 death certificates.


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by ethnicity in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Ethnicity
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY ETHNICITY (per 100,000):
• Non-Hispanic White: 656.9
• Hispanic: 682.3
• Non-Hispanic Black: 248.2
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 1109.9

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.57
• Rate Difference: 483.8 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 31.5%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.123

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY ETHNICITY:
• Non-Hispanic White: 74.1 years
• Hispanic: 79.2 years
• Non-Hispanic Black: 78.9 years
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 81.6 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 22% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 24% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 24% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 22% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: -0.9%

Social determinants explain 73% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by ethnicity in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Ethnicity
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY ETHNICITY (per 100,000):
• Non-Hispanic White: 656.9
• Hispanic: 682.3
• Non-Hispanic Black: 248.2
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 1109.9

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.57
• Rate Difference: 483.8 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 31.5%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.123

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY ETHNICITY:
• Non-Hispanic White: 74.1 years
• Hispanic: 79.2 years
• Non-Hispanic Black: 78.9 years
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 81.6 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 22% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 24% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 24% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 22% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: -0.9%

Social determinants explain 73% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Summarize individual life mortality experience study results

Response:
MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Individual Life Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2023
Exposure: 160367 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 1.14
• Deaths Actual: 6,490
• Deaths Expected: 2,102

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.78
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.04

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.82, 1.12]

Human: Summarize individual life mortality experience study results

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Individual Life Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2023
Exposure: 160367 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 1.14
• Deaths Actual: 6,490
• Deaths Expected: 2,102

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.78
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.04

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.82, 1.12]


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 23 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 23
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_23): 0.001409
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 91% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $4734.55
• Expense Charge: $1183.64
• Reserve Accumulation: $1578.18
• Profit Margin: $394.55
• Gross Annual Premium: $7890.92

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $7890.92
• Semi-Annual: $4103.28 (x2 = $8206.56/year)
• Quarterly: $2091.09 (x4 = $8364.38/year)
• Monthly: $710.18 (x12 = $8522.19/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $5918.19
• First Year Reserve: $1578.18
• Terminal Reserve (Year 42): $967938.85

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.5%
Profit Margin: 9.9%
Lapse Assumption: 4.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 23 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 23
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_23): 0.001409
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 91% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $4734.55
• Expense Charge: $1183.64
• Reserve Accumulation: $1578.18
• Profit Margin: $394.55
• Gross Annual Premium: $7890.92

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $7890.92
• Semi-Annual: $4103.28 (x2 = $8206.56/year)
• Quarterly: $2091.09 (x4 = $8364.38/year)
• Monthly: $710.18 (x12 = $8522.19/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $5918.19
• First Year Reserve: $1578.18
• Terminal Reserve (Year 42): $967938.85

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.5%
Profit Margin: 9.9%
Lapse Assumption: 4.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil for Q2 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: COVID-19 pandemic
Location: Brazil
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 49,681
• Observed Deaths: 62,331
• Excess Deaths: 12,650
• Excess Mortality Rate: 25.5%
• P-score: 25.5%
• Z-score: 3.80 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.3% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 5.8% (1,265 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 12.1% (3,162 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 23.7% (3,162 deaths)
• 75+ years: 20.4% (5,060 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 10,032 (69%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,936 (12%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 1,957 (11%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [10,752, 14,547]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 147239
Economic Impact: $6.8 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 140826

Human: Calculate excess mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil for Q2 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: COVID-19 pandemic
Location: Brazil
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 49,681
• Observed Deaths: 62,331
• Excess Deaths: 12,650
• Excess Mortality Rate: 25.5%
• P-score: 25.5%
• Z-score: 3.80 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.3% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 5.8% (1,265 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 12.1% (3,162 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 23.7% (3,162 deaths)
• 75+ years: 20.4% (5,060 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 10,032 (69%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,936 (12%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 1,957 (11%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [10,752, 14,547]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 147239
Economic Impact: $6.8 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 140826


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 10 year old over next 10 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 10 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: hypertension, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_10): 0.001056 (0.1056%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_10): 0.010507 (1.051%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_10): 0.989493 (98.949%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_10): 0.001056
• Hazard Rate (h_10): 0.001056
• Cumulative Hazard (H_10): 0.010563
• Median Future Lifetime: 656.2 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.1x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 6%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.008931
• Upper Bound: 0.012083

Analysis based on 109,515 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 10 year old over next 10 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 10 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: hypertension, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_10): 0.001056 (0.1056%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_10): 0.010507 (1.051%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_10): 0.989493 (98.949%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_10): 0.001056
• Hazard Rate (h_10): 0.001056
• Cumulative Hazard (H_10): 0.010563
• Median Future Lifetime: 656.2 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.1x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 6%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.008931
• Upper Bound: 0.012083

Analysis based on 109,515 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 26?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 26 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history, obesity, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_26): 0.000811 (0.0811%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_26): 0.000811 (0.081%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_26): 0.999189 (99.919%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_26): 0.000812
• Hazard Rate (h_26): 0.000812
• Cumulative Hazard (H_26): 0.000812
• Median Future Lifetime: 854.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.8x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000690
• Upper Bound: 0.000933

Analysis based on 79,547 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 26?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 26 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history, obesity, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_26): 0.000811 (0.0811%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_26): 0.000811 (0.081%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_26): 0.999189 (99.919%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_26): 0.000812
• Hazard Rate (h_26): 0.000812
• Cumulative Hazard (H_26): 0.000812
• Median Future Lifetime: 854.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.8x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000690
• Upper Bound: 0.000933

Analysis based on 79,547 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Compare cancer mortality between Germany and China

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: Germany, China
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Germany: 137.6 per 100,000 population
• China: 167.6 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Germany: 137.6
2. China: 167.6

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 30.0
• Mean: 152.6
• Median: 152.6
• Standard Deviation: 15.0
• Coefficient of Variation: 9.8%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.22x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Germany: #138, China: #116

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 35% of variation
• Economic Development: 33% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 13% of variation
• Demographics: 11% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 6% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.8% annually

Human: Compare cancer mortality between Germany and China

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: Germany, China
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Germany: 137.6 per 100,000 population
• China: 167.6 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Germany: 137.6
2. China: 167.6

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 30.0
• Mean: 152.6
• Median: 152.6
• Standard Deviation: 15.0
• Coefficient of Variation: 9.8%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.22x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Germany: #138, China: #116

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 35% of variation
• Economic Development: 33% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 13% of variation
• Demographics: 11% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 6% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.8% annually


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1971 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1971
Current Age: 53 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,178,773

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 65.2 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 81.4 years
• Survival to Current Age: 85.1%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 26.2 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 33.8 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 47%

Cohort effects explain 18% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1971 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1971
Current Age: 53 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,178,773

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 65.2 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 81.4 years
• Survival to Current Age: 85.1%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 26.2 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 33.8 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 47%

Cohort effects explain 18% of mortality variation.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 51 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 41
• Current Age: 51
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $846.02
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $59989.11
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $31110.32

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $25610.96
• Per $1,000 Face: $256.11

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_51:10⌉ = 0.1695
• ä_51:10⌉ = 9.2539
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $25610.96

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $9034.02
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $5760.67
• Interest Earned: $1642.54
• ₁₀V = $25610.96

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $24330.41
• Tax Reserve: $23562.08
• GAAP Reserve: $26891.51

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 51 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 41
• Current Age: 51
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $846.02
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $59989.11
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $31110.32

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $25610.96
• Per $1,000 Face: $256.11

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_51:10⌉ = 0.1695
• ä_51:10⌉ = 9.2539
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $25610.96

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $9034.02
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $5760.67
• Interest Earned: $1642.54
• ₁₀V = $25610.96

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $24330.41
• Tax Reserve: $23562.08
• GAAP Reserve: $26891.51


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Influenza/Pneumonia in USA for 65-74 in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Influenza/Pneumonia
Location: USA
Year: 2021
Age Group: 65-74

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 14.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 13.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 135,488
• Percentage of All Deaths: 3.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 16.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 12.0 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.32:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -12.0%
• 10-Year Change: -20.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.0%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #9
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 1409481
• Economic Burden: $54.7 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 46%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): J09-J18
Data Quality: Partial (87% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Influenza/Pneumonia in USA for 65-74 in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Influenza/Pneumonia
Location: USA
Year: 2021
Age Group: 65-74

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 14.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 13.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 135,488
• Percentage of All Deaths: 3.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 16.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 12.0 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.32:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -12.0%
• 10-Year Change: -20.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.0%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #9
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 1409481
• Economic Burden: $54.7 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 46%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): J09-J18
Data Quality: Partial (87% coverage)


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 70?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 70 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: diabetes, heart disease, obesity

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_70): 0.002288 (0.2288%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_70): 0.011389 (1.139%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_70): 0.988611 (98.861%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_70): 0.002291
• Hazard Rate (h_70): 0.002291
• Cumulative Hazard (H_70): 0.011455
• Median Future Lifetime: 302.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.3x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 129%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.009681
• Upper Bound: 0.013098

Analysis based on 124,055 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 70?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 70 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: diabetes, heart disease, obesity

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_70): 0.002288 (0.2288%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_70): 0.011389 (1.139%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_70): 0.988611 (98.861%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_70): 0.002291
• Hazard Rate (h_70): 0.002291
• Cumulative Hazard (H_70): 0.011455
• Median Future Lifetime: 302.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.3x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 129%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.009681
• Upper Bound: 0.013098

Analysis based on 124,055 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 34?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 34 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: hypertension, heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_34): 0.000640 (0.0640%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_34): 0.000640 (0.064%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_34): 0.999360 (99.936%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_34): 0.000640
• Hazard Rate (h_34): 0.000640
• Cumulative Hazard (H_34): 0.000640
• Median Future Lifetime: 1083.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.6x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000544
• Upper Bound: 0.000735

Analysis based on 148,469 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 34?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 34 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: hypertension, heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_34): 0.000640 (0.0640%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_34): 0.000640 (0.064%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_34): 0.999360 (99.936%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_34): 0.000640
• Hazard Rate (h_34): 0.000640
• Cumulative Hazard (H_34): 0.000640
• Median Future Lifetime: 1083.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.6x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000544
• Upper Bound: 0.000735

Analysis based on 148,469 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Stroke in USA for 65-74 in 2023?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Stroke
Location: USA
Year: 2023
Age Group: 65-74

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 40.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 35.2 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 2,009,497
• Percentage of All Deaths: 9.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 48.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 34.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.21:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +4.2%
• 10-Year Change: -17.0%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #2
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 27612618
• Economic Burden: $31.8 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 50%

RISK FACTORS:
• Hypertension: 50% attributable
• Atrial fibrillation: 25%
• Diabetes: 20%
• High cholesterol: 15%
• Smoking: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): I60-I69
Data Quality: Partial (87% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Stroke in USA for 65-74 in 2023?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Stroke
Location: USA
Year: 2023
Age Group: 65-74

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 40.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 35.2 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 2,009,497
• Percentage of All Deaths: 9.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 48.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 34.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.21:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +4.2%
• 10-Year Change: -17.0%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #2
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 27612618
• Economic Burden: $31.8 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 50%

RISK FACTORS:
• Hypertension: 50% attributable
• Atrial fibrillation: 25%
• Diabetes: 20%
• High cholesterol: 15%
• Smoking: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): I60-I69
Data Quality: Partial (87% coverage)


Instruction: Summarize individual life mortality experience study results

Response:
MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Individual Life Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2024
Exposure: 916320 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 0.94
• Deaths Actual: 6,631
• Deaths Expected: 4,307

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.87
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.08

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.92, 1.13]

Human: Summarize individual life mortality experience study results

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Individual Life Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2024
Exposure: 916320 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 0.94
• Deaths Actual: 6,631
• Deaths Expected: 4,307

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.87
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.08

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.92, 1.13]


Instruction: Summarize annuity mortality experience study results

Response:
MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Annuity Insurance
Study Period: 2020-2023
Exposure: 228980 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 1.14
• Deaths Actual: 7,021
• Deaths Expected: 6,551

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.79
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.03

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.90, 1.10]

Human: Summarize annuity mortality experience study results

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Annuity Insurance
Study Period: 2020-2023
Exposure: 228980 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 1.14
• Deaths Actual: 7,021
• Deaths Expected: 6,551

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.79
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.03

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.90, 1.10]


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by race in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Race
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY RACE (per 100,000):
• White: 755.4
• Black: 756.5
• Asian: 394.1
• Hispanic: 237.4
• Native American: 1143.2

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.45
• Rate Difference: 737.2 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 16.8%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.311

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY RACE:
• White: 75.3 years
• Black: 72.2 years
• Asian: 82.7 years
• Hispanic: 74.8 years
• Native American: 82.0 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 36% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 16% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 11% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 14% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 10% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -1.2%

Social determinants explain 61% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by race in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Race
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY RACE (per 100,000):
• White: 755.4
• Black: 756.5
• Asian: 394.1
• Hispanic: 237.4
• Native American: 1143.2

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.45
• Rate Difference: 737.2 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 16.8%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.311

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY RACE:
• White: 75.3 years
• Black: 72.2 years
• Asian: 82.7 years
• Hispanic: 74.8 years
• Native American: 82.0 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 36% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 16% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 11% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 14% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 10% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -1.2%

Social determinants explain 61% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Manufacturing workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Manufacturing
Fatal Injury Rate: 16.9 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 667

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 28%
• Struck by object: 23%
• Electrocution: 11%
• Caught-in/between: 17%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $276,016

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Manufacturing workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Manufacturing
Fatal Injury Rate: 16.9 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 667

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 28%
• Struck by object: 23%
• Electrocution: 11%
• Caught-in/between: 17%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $276,016


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1964 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1964
Current Age: 60 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,387,479

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 73.3 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 83.9 years
• Survival to Current Age: 66.9%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• High smoking prevalence
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 30.4 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 44.7 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 42%

Cohort effects explain 16% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1964 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1964
Current Age: 60 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,387,479

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 73.3 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 83.9 years
• Survival to Current Age: 66.9%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• High smoking prevalence
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 30.4 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 44.7 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 42%

Cohort effects explain 16% of mortality variation.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Kidney Disease in Australia in 2023?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Kidney Disease
Location: Australia
Year: 2023
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 16.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 14.0 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 37,072
• Percentage of All Deaths: 22.2%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 19.7 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 13.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.39:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +7.0%
• 10-Year Change: +9.2%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.9%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 675444
• Economic Burden: $15.6 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 31%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): N00-N19
Data Quality: Partial (86% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Kidney Disease in Australia in 2023?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Kidney Disease
Location: Australia
Year: 2023
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 16.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 14.0 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 37,072
• Percentage of All Deaths: 22.2%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 19.7 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 13.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.39:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +7.0%
• 10-Year Change: +9.2%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.9%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 675444
• Economic Burden: $15.6 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 31%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): N00-N19
Data Quality: Partial (86% coverage)


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Suicide in USA for 75+ in 2019?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Suicide
Location: USA
Year: 2019
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 18.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 16.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 565,074
• Percentage of All Deaths: 2.7%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 21.7 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 15.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.32:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +2.5%
• 10-Year Change: -21.8%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.8%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #10
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 16891817
• Economic Burden: $88.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 43%

RISK FACTORS:
• Mental illness: 90% of cases
• Substance abuse: 30%
• Previous attempt: 40x risk
• Access to means: Critical
• Social isolation: 25%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): X60-X84
Data Quality: Partial (98% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Suicide in USA for 75+ in 2019?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Suicide
Location: USA
Year: 2019
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 18.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 16.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 565,074
• Percentage of All Deaths: 2.7%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 21.7 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 15.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.32:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +2.5%
• 10-Year Change: -21.8%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.8%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #10
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 16891817
• Economic Burden: $88.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 43%

RISK FACTORS:
• Mental illness: 90% of cases
• Substance abuse: 30%
• Previous attempt: 40x risk
• Access to means: Critical
• Social isolation: 25%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): X60-X84
Data Quality: Partial (98% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 70 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 70
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_70): 0.004050
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 83% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $13608.96
• Expense Charge: $3402.24
• Reserve Accumulation: $4536.32
• Profit Margin: $1134.08
• Gross Annual Premium: $22681.60

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $22681.60
• Semi-Annual: $11794.43 (x2 = $23588.86/year)
• Quarterly: $6010.62 (x4 = $24042.49/year)
• Monthly: $2041.34 (x12 = $24496.12/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $17011.20
• First Year Reserve: $4536.32
• Terminal Reserve (Year -5): $625934.39

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.2%
Profit Margin: 14.5%
Lapse Assumption: 7.4% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 70 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 70
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_70): 0.004050
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 83% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $13608.96
• Expense Charge: $3402.24
• Reserve Accumulation: $4536.32
• Profit Margin: $1134.08
• Gross Annual Premium: $22681.60

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $22681.60
• Semi-Annual: $11794.43 (x2 = $23588.86/year)
• Quarterly: $6010.62 (x4 = $24042.49/year)
• Monthly: $2041.34 (x12 = $24496.12/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $17011.20
• First Year Reserve: $4536.32
• Terminal Reserve (Year -5): $625934.39

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.2%
Profit Margin: 14.5%
Lapse Assumption: 7.4% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 58 year old both in Germany as of 2015?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Germany
• Age: 58 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2015

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 58 (e_58): 25.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 83.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 17.7 years
• Modal Age at Death: 78.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_58): 82.8%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_58): 68.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_58): 47.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_58): 0.03776
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_58): 0.03705
• Hazard Rate: 0.03849

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 58: 23.2 years
• Regional Rank: Top 34 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 174,263 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.9%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 58 year old both in Germany as of 2015?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Germany
• Age: 58 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2015

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 58 (e_58): 25.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 83.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 17.7 years
• Modal Age at Death: 78.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_58): 82.8%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_58): 68.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_58): 47.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_58): 0.03776
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_58): 0.03705
• Hazard Rate: 0.03849

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 58: 23.2 years
• Regional Rank: Top 34 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 174,263 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.9%.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 45 year old male in UK as of 2020?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: UK
• Age: 45 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 45 (e_45): 34.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 79.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 24.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 74.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_45): 87.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_45): 75.7%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_45): 57.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_45): 0.02785
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_45): 0.02746
• Hazard Rate: 0.02824

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 45: 36.3 years
• Regional Rank: Top 24 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 287,061 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.1%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 45 year old male in UK as of 2020?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: UK
• Age: 45 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 45 (e_45): 34.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 79.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 24.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 74.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_45): 87.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_45): 75.7%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_45): 57.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_45): 0.02785
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_45): 0.02746
• Hazard Rate: 0.02824

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 45: 36.3 years
• Regional Rank: Top 24 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 287,061 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.1%.


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during opioid crisis in USA for Q2 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: opioid crisis
Location: USA
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 50,747
• Observed Deaths: 75,835
• Excess Deaths: 25,088
• Excess Mortality Rate: 49.4%
• P-score: 49.4%
• Z-score: 5.38 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.2% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 7.5% (2,508 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 7.2% (6,272 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 25.0% (6,272 deaths)
• 75+ years: 39.4% (10,035 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 16,983 (77%)
• Indirect (probable): 6,386 (27%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,309 (11%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [21,324, 28,851]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 352056
Economic Impact: $3.5 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 278980

Human: Calculate excess mortality during opioid crisis in USA for Q2 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: opioid crisis
Location: USA
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 50,747
• Observed Deaths: 75,835
• Excess Deaths: 25,088
• Excess Mortality Rate: 49.4%
• P-score: 49.4%
• Z-score: 5.38 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.2% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 7.5% (2,508 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 7.2% (6,272 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 25.0% (6,272 deaths)
• 75+ years: 39.4% (10,035 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 16,983 (77%)
• Indirect (probable): 6,386 (27%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,309 (11%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [21,324, 28,851]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 352056
Economic Impact: $3.5 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 278980


Instruction: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 40 year old female, $250,000 coverage, 20 year term, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $250,000
• Term Length: 20 years
• Issue Age: 40
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_40): 0.001242
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 59% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $186.25
• Expense Charge: $46.56
• Reserve Accumulation: $62.08
• Profit Margin: $15.52
• Gross Annual Premium: $310.42

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $310.42
• Semi-Annual: $161.42 (x2 = $322.84/year)
• Quarterly: $82.26 (x4 = $329.05/year)
• Monthly: $27.94 (x12 = $335.25/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $232.82
• First Year Reserve: $62.08
• Terminal Reserve (Year 20): $141821.76

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.2%
Profit Margin: 8.8%
Lapse Assumption: 7.9% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 40 year old female, $250,000 coverage, 20 year term, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $250,000
• Term Length: 20 years
• Issue Age: 40
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_40): 0.001242
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 59% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $186.25
• Expense Charge: $46.56
• Reserve Accumulation: $62.08
• Profit Margin: $15.52
• Gross Annual Premium: $310.42

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $310.42
• Semi-Annual: $161.42 (x2 = $322.84/year)
• Quarterly: $82.26 (x4 = $329.05/year)
• Monthly: $27.94 (x12 = $335.25/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $232.82
• First Year Reserve: $62.08
• Terminal Reserve (Year 20): $141821.76

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.2%
Profit Margin: 8.8%
Lapse Assumption: 7.9% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Project mortality rates for Japan in 2037

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: Japan
Target Year: 2037
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 789.3 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 82.1 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.38%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 670.9
• Upper: 907.7

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for Japan in 2037

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: Japan
Target Year: 2037
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 789.3 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 82.1 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.38%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 670.9
• Upper: 907.7

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by marital status in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Marital Status
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2022

MORTALITY RATES BY MARITAL STATUS (per 100,000):
• Married: 707.2
• Single: 352.4
• Divorced: 445.0
• Widowed: 374.2

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.00
• Rate Difference: 648.6 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 23.1%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.128

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY MARITAL STATUS:
• Married: 82.6 years
• Single: 82.5 years
• Divorced: 74.4 years
• Widowed: 73.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 34% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 24% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 21% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 10% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 6% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: +1.3%

Social determinants explain 68% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by marital status in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Marital Status
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2022

MORTALITY RATES BY MARITAL STATUS (per 100,000):
• Married: 707.2
• Single: 352.4
• Divorced: 445.0
• Widowed: 374.2

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.00
• Rate Difference: 648.6 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 23.1%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.128

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY MARITAL STATUS:
• Married: 82.6 years
• Single: 82.5 years
• Divorced: 74.4 years
• Widowed: 73.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 34% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 24% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 21% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 10% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 6% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: +1.3%

Social determinants explain 68% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 47 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 47
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_47): 0.002121
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 68% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $15910.56
• Expense Charge: $3977.64
• Reserve Accumulation: $5303.52
• Profit Margin: $1325.88
• Gross Annual Premium: $26517.60

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $26517.60
• Semi-Annual: $13789.15 (x2 = $27578.30/year)
• Quarterly: $7027.16 (x4 = $28108.65/year)
• Monthly: $2386.58 (x12 = $28639.00/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $19888.20
• First Year Reserve: $5303.52
• Terminal Reserve (Year 18): $2937854.70

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.5%
Profit Margin: 13.4%
Lapse Assumption: 5.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 47 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 47
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_47): 0.002121
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 68% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $15910.56
• Expense Charge: $3977.64
• Reserve Accumulation: $5303.52
• Profit Margin: $1325.88
• Gross Annual Premium: $26517.60

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $26517.60
• Semi-Annual: $13789.15 (x2 = $27578.30/year)
• Quarterly: $7027.16 (x4 = $28108.65/year)
• Monthly: $2386.58 (x12 = $28639.00/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $19888.20
• First Year Reserve: $5303.52
• Terminal Reserve (Year 18): $2937854.70

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.5%
Profit Margin: 13.4%
Lapse Assumption: 5.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1949 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1949
Current Age: 75 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,695,803

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 69.9 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 76.9 years
• Survival to Current Age: 71.5%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• Standard exposures

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 11.8 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 25.8 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 35%

Cohort effects explain 20% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1949 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1949
Current Age: 75 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,695,803

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 69.9 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 76.9 years
• Survival to Current Age: 71.5%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• Standard exposures

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 11.8 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 25.8 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 35%

Cohort effects explain 20% of mortality variation.


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 67 year old over next 5 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 67 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: diabetes, cancer history

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_67): 0.001690 (0.1690%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_67): 0.008422 (0.842%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_67): 0.991578 (99.158%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_67): 0.001691
• Hazard Rate (h_67): 0.001691
• Cumulative Hazard (H_67): 0.008457
• Median Future Lifetime: 409.8 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.7x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 69%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.007159
• Upper Bound: 0.009685

Analysis based on 94,449 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 67 year old over next 5 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 67 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: diabetes, cancer history

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_67): 0.001690 (0.1690%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_67): 0.008422 (0.842%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_67): 0.991578 (99.158%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_67): 0.001691
• Hazard Rate (h_67): 0.001691
• Cumulative Hazard (H_67): 0.008457
• Median Future Lifetime: 409.8 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.7x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 69%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.007159
• Upper Bound: 0.009685

Analysis based on 94,449 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What are the mortality characteristics for middle age population?

Response:
AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Middle Age (40-64 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 19.92 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Cancer, heart disease, accidents
• Preventable Deaths: 29%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.

Human: What are the mortality characteristics for middle age population?

Actuarial AI: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Middle Age (40-64 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 19.92 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Cancer, heart disease, accidents
• Preventable Deaths: 29%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during opioid crisis in Italy for Q3 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: opioid crisis
Location: Italy
Period: Q3 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 69,148
• Observed Deaths: 87,485
• Excess Deaths: 18,337
• Excess Mortality Rate: 26.5%
• P-score: 26.5%
• Z-score: 3.45 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.6% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 7.4% (1,833 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 13.2% (4,584 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 17.8% (4,584 deaths)
• 75+ years: 25.8% (7,334 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 13,829 (77%)
• Indirect (probable): 3,161 (21%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,353 (18%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [15,586, 21,087]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.95

Years of Life Lost: 250972
Economic Impact: $9.5 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 152497

Human: Calculate excess mortality during opioid crisis in Italy for Q3 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: opioid crisis
Location: Italy
Period: Q3 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 69,148
• Observed Deaths: 87,485
• Excess Deaths: 18,337
• Excess Mortality Rate: 26.5%
• P-score: 26.5%
• Z-score: 3.45 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.6% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 7.4% (1,833 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 13.2% (4,584 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 17.8% (4,584 deaths)
• 75+ years: 25.8% (7,334 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 13,829 (77%)
• Indirect (probable): 3,161 (21%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,353 (18%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [15,586, 21,087]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.95

Years of Life Lost: 250972
Economic Impact: $9.5 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 152497


Instruction: Calculate the 10-year death probability for a 50 year old with heart disease, obesity, diabetes

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 50 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: heart disease, obesity, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_50): 0.002412 (0.2412%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_50): 0.023857 (2.386%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_50): 0.976143 (97.614%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.002415
• Hazard Rate (h_50): 0.002415
• Cumulative Hazard (H_50): 0.024146
• Median Future Lifetime: 287.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.4x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 141%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.020279
• Upper Bound: 0.027436

Analysis based on 158,749 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 10-year death probability for a 50 year old with heart disease, obesity, diabetes

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 50 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: heart disease, obesity, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_50): 0.002412 (0.2412%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_50): 0.023857 (2.386%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_50): 0.976143 (97.614%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.002415
• Hazard Rate (h_50): 0.002415
• Cumulative Hazard (H_50): 0.024146
• Median Future Lifetime: 287.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.4x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 141%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.020279
• Upper Bound: 0.027436

Analysis based on 158,749 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Project mortality rates for China in 2048

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: China
Target Year: 2048
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 572.4 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 81.5 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.16%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 486.5
• Upper: 658.3

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for China in 2048

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: China
Target Year: 2048
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 572.4 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 81.5 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.16%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 486.5
• Upper: 658.3

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 61 year old male, $2,000,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 61
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_61): 0.004060
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 89% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $17050.04
• Expense Charge: $4262.51
• Reserve Accumulation: $5683.35
• Profit Margin: $1420.84
• Gross Annual Premium: $28416.74

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $28416.74
• Semi-Annual: $14776.70 (x2 = $29553.40/year)
• Quarterly: $7530.43 (x4 = $30121.74/year)
• Monthly: $2557.51 (x12 = $30690.07/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $21312.55
• First Year Reserve: $5683.35
• Terminal Reserve (Year 4): $844953.53

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.2%
Profit Margin: 13.0%
Lapse Assumption: 4.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 61 year old male, $2,000,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 61
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_61): 0.004060
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 89% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $17050.04
• Expense Charge: $4262.51
• Reserve Accumulation: $5683.35
• Profit Margin: $1420.84
• Gross Annual Premium: $28416.74

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $28416.74
• Semi-Annual: $14776.70 (x2 = $29553.40/year)
• Quarterly: $7530.43 (x4 = $30121.74/year)
• Monthly: $2557.51 (x12 = $30690.07/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $21312.55
• First Year Reserve: $5683.35
• Terminal Reserve (Year 4): $844953.53

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.2%
Profit Margin: 13.0%
Lapse Assumption: 4.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.