Instruction: Compare cancer mortality between South Korea, Mexico, Italy and Germany

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: South Korea, Mexico, Italy, Germany
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• South Korea: 131.9 per 100,000 population
• Mexico: 228.8 per 100,000 population
• Italy: 94.2 per 100,000 population
• Germany: 205.9 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Italy: 94.2
2. South Korea: 131.9
3. Germany: 205.9
4. Mexico: 228.8

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 134.6
• Mean: 165.2
• Median: 168.9
• Standard Deviation: 54.4
• Coefficient of Variation: 33.0%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.43x difference
• Above Average: 2/4
• Global Ranking: South Korea: #81, Mexico: #13, Italy: #63

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 28% of variation
• Economic Development: 26% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 21% of variation
• Demographics: 20% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 10% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 2.0% annually

Human: Compare cancer mortality between South Korea, Mexico, Italy and Germany

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: South Korea, Mexico, Italy, Germany
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• South Korea: 131.9 per 100,000 population
• Mexico: 228.8 per 100,000 population
• Italy: 94.2 per 100,000 population
• Germany: 205.9 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Italy: 94.2
2. South Korea: 131.9
3. Germany: 205.9
4. Mexico: 228.8

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 134.6
• Mean: 165.2
• Median: 168.9
• Standard Deviation: 54.4
• Coefficient of Variation: 33.0%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.43x difference
• Above Average: 2/4
• Global Ranking: South Korea: #81, Mexico: #13, Italy: #63

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 28% of variation
• Economic Development: 26% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 21% of variation
• Demographics: 20% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 10% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 2.0% annually


Instruction: Show survival curve for Russia female in 2021

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Russia Female
Reference Year: 2021
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            2         0.00002         79.0
    1          99,998           11         0.00011         74.9
    5          99,987           22         0.00022         71.7
   10          99,965           64         0.00064         69.1
   20          99,901          112         0.00112         58.7
   30          99,789          171         0.00171         46.9
   40          99,618          344         0.00345         45.0
   50          99,274          543         0.00547         27.1
   60          98,731          805         0.00815         23.0
   70          97,926          876         0.00895          5.7
   80          97,050        1,551         0.01598          3.1
   90          95,499        2,189         0.02292          4.1
  100          93,310        2,839         0.03043          1.6
  110          90,471       90,471         1.00000          2.6

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 76.8 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.7%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 97.0%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.86

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 292,604 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for Russia female in 2021

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Russia Female
Reference Year: 2021
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            2         0.00002         79.0
    1          99,998           11         0.00011         74.9
    5          99,987           22         0.00022         71.7
   10          99,965           64         0.00064         69.1
   20          99,901          112         0.00112         58.7
   30          99,789          171         0.00171         46.9
   40          99,618          344         0.00345         45.0
   50          99,274          543         0.00547         27.1
   60          98,731          805         0.00815         23.0
   70          97,926          876         0.00895          5.7
   80          97,050        1,551         0.01598          3.1
   90          95,499        2,189         0.02292          4.1
  100          93,310        2,839         0.03043          1.6
  110          90,471       90,471         1.00000          2.6

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 76.8 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.7%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 97.0%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.86

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 292,604 death certificates.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 40 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 30
• Current Age: 40
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $808.08
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $48604.35
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $35643.19

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $26907.10
• Per $1,000 Face: $269.07

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_40:10⌉ = 0.2055
• ä_40:10⌉ = 8.0380
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $26907.10

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10217.43
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4160.43
• Interest Earned: $1681.83
• ₁₀V = $26907.10

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $25561.74
• Tax Reserve: $24754.53
• GAAP Reserve: $28252.45

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 40 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 30
• Current Age: 40
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $808.08
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $48604.35
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $35643.19

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $26907.10
• Per $1,000 Face: $269.07

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_40:10⌉ = 0.2055
• ä_40:10⌉ = 8.0380
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $26907.10

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10217.43
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4160.43
• Interest Earned: $1681.83
• ₁₀V = $26907.10

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $25561.74
• Tax Reserve: $24754.53
• GAAP Reserve: $28252.45


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 53 year old female, $750,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 53
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_53): 0.001915
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 83% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2154.55
• Expense Charge: $538.64
• Reserve Accumulation: $718.18
• Profit Margin: $179.55
• Gross Annual Premium: $3590.92

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3590.92
• Semi-Annual: $1867.28 (x2 = $3734.55/year)
• Quarterly: $951.59 (x4 = $3806.37/year)
• Monthly: $323.18 (x12 = $3878.19/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2693.19
• First Year Reserve: $718.18
• Terminal Reserve (Year 12): $235079.96

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.3%
Profit Margin: 14.2%
Lapse Assumption: 3.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 53 year old female, $750,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 53
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_53): 0.001915
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 83% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2154.55
• Expense Charge: $538.64
• Reserve Accumulation: $718.18
• Profit Margin: $179.55
• Gross Annual Premium: $3590.92

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3590.92
• Semi-Annual: $1867.28 (x2 = $3734.55/year)
• Quarterly: $951.59 (x4 = $3806.37/year)
• Monthly: $323.18 (x12 = $3878.19/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2693.19
• First Year Reserve: $718.18
• Terminal Reserve (Year 12): $235079.96

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.3%
Profit Margin: 14.2%
Lapse Assumption: 3.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 54 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, 15 year term, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Term Length: 15 years
• Issue Age: 54
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_54): 0.002679
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 75% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $8036.76
• Expense Charge: $2009.19
• Reserve Accumulation: $2678.92
• Profit Margin: $669.73
• Gross Annual Premium: $13394.59

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $13394.59
• Semi-Annual: $6965.19 (x2 = $13930.38/year)
• Quarterly: $3549.57 (x4 = $14198.27/year)
• Monthly: $1205.51 (x12 = $14466.16/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $10045.94
• First Year Reserve: $2678.92
• Terminal Reserve (Year 15): $2112447.36

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.8%
Profit Margin: 13.0%
Lapse Assumption: 3.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 54 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, 15 year term, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Term Length: 15 years
• Issue Age: 54
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_54): 0.002679
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 75% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $8036.76
• Expense Charge: $2009.19
• Reserve Accumulation: $2678.92
• Profit Margin: $669.73
• Gross Annual Premium: $13394.59

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $13394.59
• Semi-Annual: $6965.19 (x2 = $13930.38/year)
• Quarterly: $3549.57 (x4 = $14198.27/year)
• Monthly: $1205.51 (x12 = $14466.16/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $10045.94
• First Year Reserve: $2678.92
• Terminal Reserve (Year 15): $2112447.36

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.8%
Profit Margin: 13.0%
Lapse Assumption: 3.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 38 year old female in France as of 2017?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 38 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 38 (e_38): 47.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 85.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 33.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 80.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_38): 90.2%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_38): 81.4%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_38): 66.2%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_38): 0.02059
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_38): 0.02038
• Hazard Rate: 0.02081

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 38: 44.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 46 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 449,925 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.2%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 38 year old female in France as of 2017?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 38 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 38 (e_38): 47.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 85.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 33.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 80.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_38): 90.2%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_38): 81.4%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_38): 66.2%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_38): 0.02059
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_38): 0.02038
• Hazard Rate: 0.02081

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 38: 44.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 46 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 449,925 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.2%.


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 56 year old female, $500,000 coverage, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $500,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 56
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_56): 0.002822
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 95% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2963.20
• Expense Charge: $740.80
• Reserve Accumulation: $987.73
• Profit Margin: $246.93
• Gross Annual Premium: $4938.67

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $4938.67
• Semi-Annual: $2568.11 (x2 = $5136.22/year)
• Quarterly: $1308.75 (x4 = $5234.99/year)
• Monthly: $444.48 (x12 = $5333.77/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3704.01
• First Year Reserve: $987.73
• Terminal Reserve (Year 9): $227010.56

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.2%
Profit Margin: 12.6%
Lapse Assumption: 6.7% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 56 year old female, $500,000 coverage, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $500,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 56
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_56): 0.002822
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 95% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2963.20
• Expense Charge: $740.80
• Reserve Accumulation: $987.73
• Profit Margin: $246.93
• Gross Annual Premium: $4938.67

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $4938.67
• Semi-Annual: $2568.11 (x2 = $5136.22/year)
• Quarterly: $1308.75 (x4 = $5234.99/year)
• Monthly: $444.48 (x12 = $5333.77/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3704.01
• First Year Reserve: $987.73
• Terminal Reserve (Year 9): $227010.56

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.2%
Profit Margin: 12.6%
Lapse Assumption: 6.7% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Chronic Respiratory in Germany for Under 25 in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Chronic Respiratory
Location: Germany
Year: 2021
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 45.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 42.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 2,034,723
• Percentage of All Deaths: 10.6%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 54.1 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 38.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.41:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +5.0%
• 10-Year Change: -19.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.9%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #11
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 54800077
• Economic Burden: $24.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 25%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): J40-J47
Data Quality: Partial (88% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Chronic Respiratory in Germany for Under 25 in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Chronic Respiratory
Location: Germany
Year: 2021
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 45.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 42.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 2,034,723
• Percentage of All Deaths: 10.6%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 54.1 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 38.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.41:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +5.0%
• 10-Year Change: -19.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.9%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #11
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 54800077
• Economic Burden: $24.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 25%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): J40-J47
Data Quality: Partial (88% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 49 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 49
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_49): 0.002235
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 64% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $6704.37
• Expense Charge: $1676.09
• Reserve Accumulation: $2234.79
• Profit Margin: $558.70
• Gross Annual Premium: $11173.96

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $11173.96
• Semi-Annual: $5810.46 (x2 = $11620.91/year)
• Quarterly: $2961.10 (x4 = $11844.39/year)
• Monthly: $1005.66 (x12 = $12067.87/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $8380.47
• First Year Reserve: $2234.79
• Terminal Reserve (Year 16): $1254233.07

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.8%
Profit Margin: 9.4%
Lapse Assumption: 6.9% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 49 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 49
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_49): 0.002235
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 64% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $6704.37
• Expense Charge: $1676.09
• Reserve Accumulation: $2234.79
• Profit Margin: $558.70
• Gross Annual Premium: $11173.96

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $11173.96
• Semi-Annual: $5810.46 (x2 = $11620.91/year)
• Quarterly: $2961.10 (x4 = $11844.39/year)
• Monthly: $1005.66 (x12 = $12067.87/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $8380.47
• First Year Reserve: $2234.79
• Terminal Reserve (Year 16): $1254233.07

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.8%
Profit Margin: 9.4%
Lapse Assumption: 6.9% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Cancer in France for 75+ in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Cancer
Location: France
Year: 2021
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 134.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 115.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,759,122
• Percentage of All Deaths: 8.5%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 160.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 113.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.47:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +10.8%
• 10-Year Change: -8.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.2%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #12
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 18822488
• Economic Burden: $60.8 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 26%

RISK FACTORS:
• Tobacco use: 30% attributable
• Diet: 20%
• Infections: 15%
• Alcohol: 10%
• Environmental: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): C00-C97
Data Quality: Near-Complete (97% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Cancer in France for 75+ in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Cancer
Location: France
Year: 2021
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 134.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 115.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,759,122
• Percentage of All Deaths: 8.5%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 160.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 113.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.47:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +10.8%
• 10-Year Change: -8.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.2%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #12
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 18822488
• Economic Burden: $60.8 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 26%

RISK FACTORS:
• Tobacco use: 30% attributable
• Diet: 20%
• Infections: 15%
• Alcohol: 10%
• Environmental: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): C00-C97
Data Quality: Near-Complete (97% coverage)


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Diabetes in Australia in 2022?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Diabetes
Location: Australia
Year: 2022
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 20.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 18.8 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 350,385
• Percentage of All Deaths: 15.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 24.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 17.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.29:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +4.9%
• 10-Year Change: +5.4%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #2
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 5098110
• Economic Burden: $50.0 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 36%

RISK FACTORS:
• Obesity: 60% attributable
• Physical inactivity: 30%
• Diet: 40%
• Genetics: 25%
• Age: Progressive

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): E10-E14
Data Quality: Partial (95% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Diabetes in Australia in 2022?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Diabetes
Location: Australia
Year: 2022
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 20.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 18.8 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 350,385
• Percentage of All Deaths: 15.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 24.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 17.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.29:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +4.9%
• 10-Year Change: +5.4%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #2
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 5098110
• Economic Burden: $50.0 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 36%

RISK FACTORS:
• Obesity: 60% attributable
• Physical inactivity: 30%
• Diet: 40%
• Genetics: 25%
• Age: Progressive

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): E10-E14
Data Quality: Partial (95% coverage)


Instruction: Analyze mortality trends in Canada from 2009-2023

Response:
MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: Canada
Analysis Period: 2009-2023

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: -0.7%
• Total Change: +23.7%
• Trend Direction: Worsening
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 2.6 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by -188 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 31% of improvement
• Public health measures: 18%
• Lifestyle changes: +24%
• Environmental factors: -12%

Human: Analyze mortality trends in Canada from 2009-2023

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: Canada
Analysis Period: 2009-2023

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: -0.7%
• Total Change: +23.7%
• Trend Direction: Worsening
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 2.6 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by -188 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 31% of improvement
• Public health measures: 18%
• Lifestyle changes: +24%
• Environmental factors: -12%


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 30 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 20
• Current Age: 30
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1363.10
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $48579.07
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $25517.36

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $12112.98
• Per $1,000 Face: $121.13

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_30:10⌉ = 0.1812
• ä_30:10⌉ = 9.4937
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $12112.98

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $11069.71
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3621.28
• Interest Earned: $1762.31
• ₁₀V = $12112.98

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $11507.33
• Tax Reserve: $11143.94
• GAAP Reserve: $12718.63

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 30 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 20
• Current Age: 30
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1363.10
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $48579.07
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $25517.36

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $12112.98
• Per $1,000 Face: $121.13

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_30:10⌉ = 0.1812
• ä_30:10⌉ = 9.4937
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $12112.98

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $11069.71
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3621.28
• Interest Earned: $1762.31
• ₁₀V = $12112.98

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $11507.33
• Tax Reserve: $11143.94
• GAAP Reserve: $12718.63


Instruction: Compare life expectancy between China, Japan, Mexico, Germany and Brazil

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Life Expectancy
Countries: China, Japan, Mexico, Germany, Brazil
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• China: 79.8 years
• Japan: 81.4 years
• Mexico: 84.5 years
• Germany: 75.7 years
• Brazil: 75.8 years

RANKINGS:
1. Mexico: 84.5
2. Japan: 81.4
3. China: 79.8
4. Brazil: 75.8
5. Germany: 75.7

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 8.8
• Mean: 79.4
• Median: 79.8
• Standard Deviation: 3.4
• Coefficient of Variation: 4.3%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 0.90x difference
• Above Average: 3/5
• Global Ranking: China: #132, Japan: #113, Mexico: #78

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 39% of variation
• Economic Development: 31% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 15% of variation
• Demographics: 11% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 14% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 1.0% annually

Human: Compare life expectancy between China, Japan, Mexico, Germany and Brazil

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Life Expectancy
Countries: China, Japan, Mexico, Germany, Brazil
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• China: 79.8 years
• Japan: 81.4 years
• Mexico: 84.5 years
• Germany: 75.7 years
• Brazil: 75.8 years

RANKINGS:
1. Mexico: 84.5
2. Japan: 81.4
3. China: 79.8
4. Brazil: 75.8
5. Germany: 75.7

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 8.8
• Mean: 79.4
• Median: 79.8
• Standard Deviation: 3.4
• Coefficient of Variation: 4.3%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 0.90x difference
• Above Average: 3/5
• Global Ranking: China: #132, Japan: #113, Mexico: #78

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 39% of variation
• Economic Development: 31% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 15% of variation
• Demographics: 11% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 14% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 1.0% annually


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 50 year old over next 30 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 50 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_50): 0.000417 (0.0417%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_50): 0.012443 (1.244%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_50): 0.987557 (98.756%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.000417
• Hazard Rate (h_50): 0.000417
• Cumulative Hazard (H_50): 0.012521
• Median Future Lifetime: 1660.8 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.010576
• Upper Bound: 0.014309

Analysis based on 68,385 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 50 year old over next 30 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 50 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_50): 0.000417 (0.0417%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_50): 0.012443 (1.244%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_50): 0.987557 (98.756%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.000417
• Hazard Rate (h_50): 0.000417
• Cumulative Hazard (H_50): 0.012521
• Median Future Lifetime: 1660.8 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.010576
• Upper Bound: 0.014309

Analysis based on 68,385 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 23 year old female, $100,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 23
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_23): 0.001409
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 90% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $211.36
• Expense Charge: $52.84
• Reserve Accumulation: $70.45
• Profit Margin: $17.61
• Gross Annual Premium: $352.27

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $352.27
• Semi-Annual: $183.18 (x2 = $366.36/year)
• Quarterly: $93.35 (x4 = $373.41/year)
• Monthly: $31.70 (x12 = $380.46/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $264.20
• First Year Reserve: $70.45
• Terminal Reserve (Year 42): $34981.58

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.2%
Profit Margin: 14.6%
Lapse Assumption: 3.8% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 23 year old female, $100,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 23
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_23): 0.001409
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 90% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $211.36
• Expense Charge: $52.84
• Reserve Accumulation: $70.45
• Profit Margin: $17.61
• Gross Annual Premium: $352.27

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $352.27
• Semi-Annual: $183.18 (x2 = $366.36/year)
• Quarterly: $93.35 (x4 = $373.41/year)
• Monthly: $31.70 (x12 = $380.46/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $264.20
• First Year Reserve: $70.45
• Terminal Reserve (Year 42): $34981.58

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.2%
Profit Margin: 14.6%
Lapse Assumption: 3.8% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 30 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 30
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_30): 0.001186
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 78% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1992.93
• Expense Charge: $498.23
• Reserve Accumulation: $664.31
• Profit Margin: $166.08
• Gross Annual Premium: $3321.56

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3321.56
• Semi-Annual: $1727.21 (x2 = $3454.42/year)
• Quarterly: $880.21 (x4 = $3520.85/year)
• Monthly: $298.94 (x12 = $3587.28/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2491.17
• First Year Reserve: $664.31
• Terminal Reserve (Year 35): $327564.11

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.6%
Profit Margin: 11.5%
Lapse Assumption: 3.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 30 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 30
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_30): 0.001186
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 78% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1992.93
• Expense Charge: $498.23
• Reserve Accumulation: $664.31
• Profit Margin: $166.08
• Gross Annual Premium: $3321.56

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3321.56
• Semi-Annual: $1727.21 (x2 = $3454.42/year)
• Quarterly: $880.21 (x4 = $3520.85/year)
• Monthly: $298.94 (x12 = $3587.28/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2491.17
• First Year Reserve: $664.31
• Terminal Reserve (Year 35): $327564.11

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.6%
Profit Margin: 11.5%
Lapse Assumption: 3.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during opioid crisis in Italy for Q2 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: opioid crisis
Location: Italy
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 40,037
• Observed Deaths: 59,148
• Excess Deaths: 19,111
• Excess Mortality Rate: 47.7%
• P-score: 47.7%
• Z-score: 4.30 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.7% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 8.0% (1,911 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 11.2% (4,777 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 10.1% (4,777 deaths)
• 75+ years: 24.8% (7,644 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 13,053 (69%)
• Indirect (probable): 4,228 (10%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,725 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [16,244, 21,977]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.98

Years of Life Lost: 202416
Economic Impact: $6.5 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 162533

Human: Calculate excess mortality during opioid crisis in Italy for Q2 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: opioid crisis
Location: Italy
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 40,037
• Observed Deaths: 59,148
• Excess Deaths: 19,111
• Excess Mortality Rate: 47.7%
• P-score: 47.7%
• Z-score: 4.30 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.7% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 8.0% (1,911 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 11.2% (4,777 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 10.1% (4,777 deaths)
• 75+ years: 24.8% (7,644 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 13,053 (69%)
• Indirect (probable): 4,228 (10%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,725 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [16,244, 21,977]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.98

Years of Life Lost: 202416
Economic Impact: $6.5 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 162533


Instruction: What are the mortality characteristics for adolescent population?

Response:
AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Adolescent (13-19 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 15.20 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Accidents, suicide, homicide
• Preventable Deaths: 48%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.

Human: What are the mortality characteristics for adolescent population?

Actuarial AI: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Adolescent (13-19 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 15.20 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Accidents, suicide, homicide
• Preventable Deaths: 48%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for COVID-19 in Australia for 25-44 in 2023?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: COVID-19
Location: Australia
Year: 2023
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 105.2 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 91.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,451,116
• Percentage of All Deaths: 17.2%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 126.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 89.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.41:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -9.3%
• 10-Year Change: -18.4%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.0%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #11
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 32383821
• Economic Burden: $40.1 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 54%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age > 65: 80% of deaths
• Comorbidities: 75%
• Obesity: 30%
• Diabetes: 40%
• Immunocompromised: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): U07.1
Data Quality: Complete (85% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for COVID-19 in Australia for 25-44 in 2023?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: COVID-19
Location: Australia
Year: 2023
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 105.2 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 91.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,451,116
• Percentage of All Deaths: 17.2%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 126.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 89.4 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.41:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -9.3%
• 10-Year Change: -18.4%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.0%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #11
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 32383821
• Economic Burden: $40.1 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 54%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age > 65: 80% of deaths
• Comorbidities: 75%
• Obesity: 30%
• Diabetes: 40%
• Immunocompromised: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): U07.1
Data Quality: Complete (85% coverage)


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Heart Disease in Canada for 75+ in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Heart Disease
Location: Canada
Year: 2021
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 182.6 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 167.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 7,651,008
• Percentage of All Deaths: 9.5%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 219.1 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 155.2 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.24:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -12.8%
• 10-Year Change: -11.4%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.2%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #8
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 114610271
• Economic Burden: $80.6 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 57%

RISK FACTORS:
• Hypertension: 45% attributable
• High cholesterol: 30%
• Diabetes: 20%
• Smoking: 25%
• Obesity: 30%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): I00-I99
Data Quality: Partial (88% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Heart Disease in Canada for 75+ in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Heart Disease
Location: Canada
Year: 2021
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 182.6 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 167.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 7,651,008
• Percentage of All Deaths: 9.5%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 219.1 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 155.2 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.24:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -12.8%
• 10-Year Change: -11.4%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.2%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #8
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 114610271
• Economic Burden: $80.6 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 57%

RISK FACTORS:
• Hypertension: 45% attributable
• High cholesterol: 30%
• Diabetes: 20%
• Smoking: 25%
• Obesity: 30%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): I00-I99
Data Quality: Partial (88% coverage)


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 28?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 28 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: obesity, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_28): 0.000738 (0.0738%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_28): 0.000738 (0.074%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_28): 0.999262 (99.926%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_28): 0.000738
• Hazard Rate (h_28): 0.000738
• Cumulative Hazard (H_28): 0.000738
• Median Future Lifetime: 939.4 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.7x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000627
• Upper Bound: 0.000848

Analysis based on 186,604 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 28?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 28 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: obesity, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_28): 0.000738 (0.0738%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_28): 0.000738 (0.074%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_28): 0.999262 (99.926%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_28): 0.000738
• Hazard Rate (h_28): 0.000738
• Cumulative Hazard (H_28): 0.000738
• Median Future Lifetime: 939.4 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.7x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000627
• Upper Bound: 0.000848

Analysis based on 186,604 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Compare life expectancy between India, Italy, Japan and Germany

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Life Expectancy
Countries: India, Italy, Japan, Germany
Reference Year: 2020

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• India: 75.6 years
• Italy: 82.6 years
• Japan: 71.9 years
• Germany: 75.9 years

RANKINGS:
1. Italy: 82.6
2. Germany: 75.9
3. India: 75.6
4. Japan: 71.9

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 10.7
• Mean: 76.5
• Median: 75.8
• Standard Deviation: 3.9
• Coefficient of Variation: 5.1%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 0.87x difference
• Above Average: 1/4
• Global Ranking: India: #3, Italy: #63, Japan: #137

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 26% of variation
• Economic Development: 18% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 23% of variation
• Demographics: 16% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 13% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 0.9% annually

Human: Compare life expectancy between India, Italy, Japan and Germany

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Life Expectancy
Countries: India, Italy, Japan, Germany
Reference Year: 2020

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• India: 75.6 years
• Italy: 82.6 years
• Japan: 71.9 years
• Germany: 75.9 years

RANKINGS:
1. Italy: 82.6
2. Germany: 75.9
3. India: 75.6
4. Japan: 71.9

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 10.7
• Mean: 76.5
• Median: 75.8
• Standard Deviation: 3.9
• Coefficient of Variation: 5.1%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 0.87x difference
• Above Average: 1/4
• Global Ranking: India: #3, Italy: #63, Japan: #137

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 26% of variation
• Economic Development: 18% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 23% of variation
• Demographics: 16% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 13% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 0.9% annually


Instruction: Project mortality rates for UK in 2034

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: UK
Target Year: 2034
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 613.7 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 88.2 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.63%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 521.6
• Upper: 705.8

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for UK in 2034

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: UK
Target Year: 2034
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 613.7 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 88.2 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.63%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 521.6
• Upper: 705.8

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 63 year old male, $2,000,000 coverage, Preferred Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 63
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_63): 0.002893
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.6x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 94% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $12150.30
• Expense Charge: $3037.58
• Reserve Accumulation: $4050.10
• Profit Margin: $1012.53
• Gross Annual Premium: $20250.51

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $20250.51
• Semi-Annual: $10530.26 (x2 = $21060.53/year)
• Quarterly: $5366.38 (x4 = $21465.54/year)
• Monthly: $1822.55 (x12 = $21870.55/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $15187.88
• First Year Reserve: $4050.10
• Terminal Reserve (Year 2): $1055272.31

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.4%
Profit Margin: 14.6%
Lapse Assumption: 4.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 63 year old male, $2,000,000 coverage, Preferred Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 63
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_63): 0.002893
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.6x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 94% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $12150.30
• Expense Charge: $3037.58
• Reserve Accumulation: $4050.10
• Profit Margin: $1012.53
• Gross Annual Premium: $20250.51

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $20250.51
• Semi-Annual: $10530.26 (x2 = $21060.53/year)
• Quarterly: $5366.38 (x4 = $21465.54/year)
• Monthly: $1822.55 (x12 = $21870.55/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $15187.88
• First Year Reserve: $4050.10
• Terminal Reserve (Year 2): $1055272.31

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.4%
Profit Margin: 14.6%
Lapse Assumption: 4.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: RP-2014
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 101%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.01
• Credibility Factor: 0.75
• Indicated Change: +7.4%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $5.9 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -1.7%

Recommendation: Update assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: RP-2014
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 101%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.01
• Credibility Factor: 0.75
• Indicated Change: +7.4%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $5.9 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -1.7%

Recommendation: Update assumptions


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 37 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 27
• Current Age: 37
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $825.03
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $48119.39
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $22789.56

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $31458.36
• Per $1,000 Face: $314.58

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_37:10⌉ = 0.1867
• ä_37:10⌉ = 9.6324
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $31458.36

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8741.74
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4984.47
• Interest Earned: $1522.50
• ₁₀V = $31458.36

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $29885.44
• Tax Reserve: $28941.69
• GAAP Reserve: $33031.28

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 37 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 27
• Current Age: 37
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $825.03
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $48119.39
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $22789.56

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $31458.36
• Per $1,000 Face: $314.58

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_37:10⌉ = 0.1867
• ä_37:10⌉ = 9.6324
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $31458.36

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8741.74
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4984.47
• Interest Earned: $1522.50
• ₁₀V = $31458.36

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $29885.44
• Tax Reserve: $28941.69
• GAAP Reserve: $33031.28


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Mining workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Mining
Fatal Injury Rate: 25.8 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 980

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 40%
• Struck by object: 17%
• Electrocution: 14%
• Caught-in/between: 17%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $372,039

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Mining workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Mining
Fatal Injury Rate: 25.8 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 980

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 40%
• Struck by object: 17%
• Electrocution: 14%
• Caught-in/between: 17%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $372,039


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 28 year old over next 20 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 28 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_28): 0.000223 (0.0223%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_28): 0.004442 (0.444%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_28): 0.995558 (99.556%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_28): 0.000223
• Hazard Rate (h_28): 0.000223
• Cumulative Hazard (H_28): 0.004452
• Median Future Lifetime: 3114.2 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.2x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.003775
• Upper Bound: 0.005108

Analysis based on 103,234 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 28 year old over next 20 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 28 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_28): 0.000223 (0.0223%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_28): 0.004442 (0.444%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_28): 0.995558 (99.556%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_28): 0.000223
• Hazard Rate (h_28): 0.000223
• Cumulative Hazard (H_28): 0.004452
• Median Future Lifetime: 3114.2 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.2x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.003775
• Upper Bound: 0.005108

Analysis based on 103,234 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Calculate the 30-year death probability for a 20 year oldsmoker with cancer history, heart disease

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 20 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: cancer history, heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_20): 0.000965 (0.0965%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_20): 0.028560 (2.856%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_20): 0.971440 (97.144%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_20): 0.000966
• Hazard Rate (h_20): 0.000966
• Cumulative Hazard (H_20): 0.028976
• Median Future Lifetime: 717.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.0x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.024276
• Upper Bound: 0.032844

Analysis based on 165,816 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 30-year death probability for a 20 year oldsmoker with cancer history, heart disease

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 20 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: cancer history, heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_20): 0.000965 (0.0965%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_20): 0.028560 (2.856%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_20): 0.971440 (97.144%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_20): 0.000966
• Hazard Rate (h_20): 0.000966
• Cumulative Hazard (H_20): 0.028976
• Median Future Lifetime: 717.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.0x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.024276
• Upper Bound: 0.032844

Analysis based on 165,816 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 20 years for someone age 56?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 56 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: heart disease, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_56): 0.001779 (0.1779%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_56): 0.034985 (3.498%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_56): 0.965015 (96.502%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_56): 0.001781
• Hazard Rate (h_56): 0.001781
• Cumulative Hazard (H_56): 0.035611
• Median Future Lifetime: 389.3 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.8x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 78%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.029737
• Upper Bound: 0.040232

Analysis based on 124,833 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 20 years for someone age 56?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 56 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: heart disease, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_56): 0.001779 (0.1779%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_56): 0.034985 (3.498%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_56): 0.965015 (96.502%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_56): 0.001781
• Hazard Rate (h_56): 0.001781
• Cumulative Hazard (H_56): 0.035611
• Median Future Lifetime: 389.3 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.8x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 78%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.029737
• Upper Bound: 0.040232

Analysis based on 124,833 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 50 year old female in India as of 2017?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: India
• Age: 50 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 50 (e_50): 25.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 75.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 17.7 years
• Modal Age at Death: 70.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_50): 82.8%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_50): 68.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_50): 47.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.03773
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_50): 0.03703
• Hazard Rate: 0.03846

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 50: 19.7 years
• Regional Rank: Top 27 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 262,779 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.4%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 50 year old female in India as of 2017?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: India
• Age: 50 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 50 (e_50): 25.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 75.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 17.7 years
• Modal Age at Death: 70.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_50): 82.8%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_50): 68.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_50): 47.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.03773
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_50): 0.03703
• Hazard Rate: 0.03846

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 50: 19.7 years
• Regional Rank: Top 27 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 262,779 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.4%.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 46 year old both in China as of 2020?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: China
• Age: 46 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 46 (e_46): 27.4 years
• Expected Age at Death: 73.4 years
• Median Survival Time: 19.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 68.4 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_46): 83.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_46): 70.3%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_46): 49.5%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_46): 0.03517
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_46): 0.03456
• Hazard Rate: 0.03581

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 46: 30.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 43 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 493,765 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.8%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 46 year old both in China as of 2020?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: China
• Age: 46 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 46 (e_46): 27.4 years
• Expected Age at Death: 73.4 years
• Median Survival Time: 19.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 68.4 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_46): 83.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_46): 70.3%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_46): 49.5%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_46): 0.03517
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_46): 0.03456
• Hazard Rate: 0.03581

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 46: 30.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 43 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 493,765 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.8%.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Hypertension in Germany for 75+ in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Hypertension
Location: Germany
Year: 2021
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 7.3 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 6.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 193,978
• Percentage of All Deaths: 12.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 8.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 6.2 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.22:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -10.3%
• 10-Year Change: -17.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.0%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #9
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 2547134
• Economic Burden: $64.8 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 22%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): I10-I15
Data Quality: Complete (87% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Hypertension in Germany for 75+ in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Hypertension
Location: Germany
Year: 2021
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 7.3 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 6.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 193,978
• Percentage of All Deaths: 12.0%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 8.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 6.2 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.22:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -10.3%
• 10-Year Change: -17.1%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.0%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #9
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 2547134
• Economic Burden: $64.8 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 22%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): I10-I15
Data Quality: Complete (87% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 62 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 62
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_62): 0.003498
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 92% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $36724.90
• Expense Charge: $9181.23
• Reserve Accumulation: $12241.63
• Profit Margin: $3060.41
• Gross Annual Premium: $61208.17

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $61208.17
• Semi-Annual: $31828.25 (x2 = $63656.50/year)
• Quarterly: $16220.17 (x4 = $64880.66/year)
• Monthly: $5508.74 (x12 = $66104.83/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $45906.13
• First Year Reserve: $12241.63
• Terminal Reserve (Year 3): $2136089.50

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.3%
Profit Margin: 13.7%
Lapse Assumption: 6.2% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 62 year old male, $5,000,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 62
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_62): 0.003498
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 92% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $36724.90
• Expense Charge: $9181.23
• Reserve Accumulation: $12241.63
• Profit Margin: $3060.41
• Gross Annual Premium: $61208.17

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $61208.17
• Semi-Annual: $31828.25 (x2 = $63656.50/year)
• Quarterly: $16220.17 (x4 = $64880.66/year)
• Monthly: $5508.74 (x12 = $66104.83/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $45906.13
• First Year Reserve: $12241.63
• Terminal Reserve (Year 3): $2136089.50

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.3%
Profit Margin: 13.7%
Lapse Assumption: 6.2% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Compare life expectancy between UK, China, USA and India

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Life Expectancy
Countries: UK, China, USA, India
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• UK: 81.1 years
• China: 81.4 years
• USA: 77.1 years
• India: 84.4 years

RANKINGS:
1. India: 84.4
2. China: 81.4
3. UK: 81.1
4. USA: 77.1

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 7.3
• Mean: 81.0
• Median: 81.2
• Standard Deviation: 2.6
• Coefficient of Variation: 3.2%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 0.91x difference
• Above Average: 3/4
• Global Ranking: UK: #44, China: #104, USA: #160

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 39% of variation
• Economic Development: 25% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 12% of variation
• Demographics: 20% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 10% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.6% annually

Human: Compare life expectancy between UK, China, USA and India

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Life Expectancy
Countries: UK, China, USA, India
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• UK: 81.1 years
• China: 81.4 years
• USA: 77.1 years
• India: 84.4 years

RANKINGS:
1. India: 84.4
2. China: 81.4
3. UK: 81.1
4. USA: 77.1

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 7.3
• Mean: 81.0
• Median: 81.2
• Standard Deviation: 2.6
• Coefficient of Variation: 3.2%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 0.91x difference
• Above Average: 3/4
• Global Ranking: UK: #44, China: #104, USA: #160

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 39% of variation
• Economic Development: 25% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 12% of variation
• Demographics: 20% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 10% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.6% annually


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during opioid crisis in UK for Q3 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: opioid crisis
Location: UK
Period: Q3 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 77,764
• Observed Deaths: 93,974
• Excess Deaths: 16,210
• Excess Mortality Rate: 20.8%
• P-score: 20.8%
• Z-score: 4.93 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.6% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 8.0% (1,621 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 8.2% (4,052 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 20.2% (4,052 deaths)
• 75+ years: 30.7% (6,484 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 8,143 (74%)
• Indirect (probable): 2,514 (22%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,021 (18%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [13,778, 18,641]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 202512
Economic Impact: $6.5 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 166248

Human: Calculate excess mortality during opioid crisis in UK for Q3 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: opioid crisis
Location: UK
Period: Q3 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 77,764
• Observed Deaths: 93,974
• Excess Deaths: 16,210
• Excess Mortality Rate: 20.8%
• P-score: 20.8%
• Z-score: 4.93 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.6% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 8.0% (1,621 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 8.2% (4,052 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 20.2% (4,052 deaths)
• 75+ years: 30.7% (6,484 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 8,143 (74%)
• Indirect (probable): 2,514 (22%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 3,021 (18%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [13,778, 18,641]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 202512
Economic Impact: $6.5 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 166248


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during 2021 cold snap in USA for 2022

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2021 cold snap
Location: USA
Period: 2022

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 86,227
• Observed Deaths: 92,757
• Excess Deaths: 6,530
• Excess Mortality Rate: 7.6%
• P-score: 7.6%
• Z-score: 2.93 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.0% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 3.4% (653 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 14.4% (1,632 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 27.3% (1,632 deaths)
• 75+ years: 17.8% (2,612 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 3,829 (52%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,309 (23%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 1,295 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [5,550, 7,509]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.99

Years of Life Lost: 78565
Economic Impact: $2.3 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 58460

Human: Calculate excess mortality during 2021 cold snap in USA for 2022

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2021 cold snap
Location: USA
Period: 2022

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 86,227
• Observed Deaths: 92,757
• Excess Deaths: 6,530
• Excess Mortality Rate: 7.6%
• P-score: 7.6%
• Z-score: 2.93 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.0% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 3.4% (653 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 14.4% (1,632 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 27.3% (1,632 deaths)
• 75+ years: 17.8% (2,612 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 3,829 (52%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,309 (23%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 1,295 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [5,550, 7,509]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.99

Years of Life Lost: 78565
Economic Impact: $2.3 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 58460


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Septicemia in Canada for 75+ in 2020?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Septicemia
Location: Canada
Year: 2020
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 12.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 10.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 281,161
• Percentage of All Deaths: 23.6%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 14.4 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 10.2 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.31:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -13.7%
• 10-Year Change: -6.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.6%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #9
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 3660315
• Economic Burden: $21.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 27%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A40-A41
Data Quality: Near-Complete (96% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Septicemia in Canada for 75+ in 2020?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Septicemia
Location: Canada
Year: 2020
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 12.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 10.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 281,161
• Percentage of All Deaths: 23.6%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 14.4 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 10.2 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.31:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -13.7%
• 10-Year Change: -6.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.6%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #9
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 3660315
• Economic Burden: $21.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 27%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A40-A41
Data Quality: Near-Complete (96% coverage)


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 80 year old over next 1 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 80 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: diabetes, obesity, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_80): 0.018150 (1.8150%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_80): 0.018150 (1.815%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_80): 0.981850 (98.185%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_80): 0.018317
• Hazard Rate (h_80): 0.018316
• Cumulative Hazard (H_80): 0.018317
• Median Future Lifetime: 37.8 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 18.2x standard
• Risk Category: Substandard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 1715%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.015428
• Upper Bound: 0.020873

Analysis based on 103,279 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 80 year old over next 1 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 80 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: diabetes, obesity, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_80): 0.018150 (1.8150%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_80): 0.018150 (1.815%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_80): 0.981850 (98.185%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_80): 0.018317
• Hazard Rate (h_80): 0.018316
• Cumulative Hazard (H_80): 0.018317
• Median Future Lifetime: 37.8 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 18.2x standard
• Risk Category: Substandard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 1715%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.015428
• Upper Bound: 0.020873

Analysis based on 103,279 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of MERS

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: MERS
Global Deaths: 925
Case Fatality Rate: 2.7%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.53%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $6.2 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of MERS

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: MERS
Global Deaths: 925
Case Fatality Rate: 2.7%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.53%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $6.2 trillion globally.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 60 year old male in UK as of 2017?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: UK
• Age: 60 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 60 (e_60): 19.1 years
• Expected Age at Death: 79.1 years
• Median Survival Time: 13.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 74.1 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_60): 78.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_60): 60.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_60): 37.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_60): 0.04977
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_60): 0.04855
• Hazard Rate: 0.05105

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 60: 21.3 years
• Regional Rank: Top 41 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 370,369 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.0%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 60 year old male in UK as of 2017?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: UK
• Age: 60 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 60 (e_60): 19.1 years
• Expected Age at Death: 79.1 years
• Median Survival Time: 13.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 74.1 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_60): 78.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_60): 60.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_60): 37.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_60): 0.04977
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_60): 0.04855
• Hazard Rate: 0.05105

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 60: 21.3 years
• Regional Rank: Top 41 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 370,369 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.0%.


Instruction: Summarize pension mortality experience study results

Response:
MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Pension Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2024
Exposure: 988214 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 0.86
• Deaths Actual: 8,069
• Deaths Expected: 7,517

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.90
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.08

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.87, 1.18]

Human: Summarize pension mortality experience study results

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Pension Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2024
Exposure: 988214 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 0.86
• Deaths Actual: 8,069
• Deaths Expected: 7,517

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.90
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.08

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.87, 1.18]


Instruction: Show survival curve for France male in 2017

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: France Male
Reference Year: 2017
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         77.2
    1          99,997           14         0.00014         75.6
    5          99,983           35         0.00035         75.2
   10          99,948           78         0.00078         65.8
   20          99,870          131         0.00131         55.6
   30          99,739          259         0.00260         46.2
   40          99,480          334         0.00336         44.1
   50          99,146          615         0.00620         26.8
   60          98,531          999         0.01014         16.6
   70          97,532        1,136         0.01165          8.1
   80          96,396        1,980         0.02054          0.0
   90          94,416        3,028         0.03207          4.9
  100          91,388        3,497         0.03827          1.4
  110          87,891       87,891         1.00000          1.4

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 83.5 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.5%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.4%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: High
• Rectangularization Index: 0.76

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 415,386 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for France male in 2017

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: France Male
Reference Year: 2017
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         77.2
    1          99,997           14         0.00014         75.6
    5          99,983           35         0.00035         75.2
   10          99,948           78         0.00078         65.8
   20          99,870          131         0.00131         55.6
   30          99,739          259         0.00260         46.2
   40          99,480          334         0.00336         44.1
   50          99,146          615         0.00620         26.8
   60          98,531          999         0.01014         16.6
   70          97,532        1,136         0.01165          8.1
   80          96,396        1,980         0.02054          0.0
   90          94,416        3,028         0.03207          4.9
  100          91,388        3,497         0.03827          1.4
  110          87,891       87,891         1.00000          1.4

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 83.5 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.5%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.4%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: High
• Rectangularization Index: 0.76

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 415,386 death certificates.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pri-2012
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 90%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.95
• Credibility Factor: 0.81
• Indicated Change: -5.2%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $0.7 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +1.8%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pri-2012
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 90%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.95
• Credibility Factor: 0.81
• Indicated Change: -5.2%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $0.7 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +1.8%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 50 year old both in France as of 2019?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 50 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2019

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 50 (e_50): 31.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 81.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 22.1 years
• Modal Age at Death: 76.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_50): 85.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_50): 73.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_50): 54.5%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.03035
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_50): 0.02990
• Hazard Rate: 0.03082

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 50: 32.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 30 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 411,871 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.7%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 50 year old both in France as of 2019?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 50 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2019

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 50 (e_50): 31.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 81.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 22.1 years
• Modal Age at Death: 76.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_50): 85.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_50): 73.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_50): 54.5%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.03035
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_50): 0.02990
• Hazard Rate: 0.03082

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 50: 32.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 30 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 411,871 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.7%.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: RP-2014
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 87%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.94
• Credibility Factor: 0.97
• Indicated Change: -4.6%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $7.6 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -1.6%

Recommendation: Update assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: RP-2014
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 87%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.94
• Credibility Factor: 0.97
• Indicated Change: -4.6%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $7.6 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -1.6%

Recommendation: Update assumptions


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 27 year old male, $750,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 27
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_27): 0.002178
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 50% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2450.63
• Expense Charge: $612.66
• Reserve Accumulation: $816.88
• Profit Margin: $204.22
• Gross Annual Premium: $4084.38

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $4084.38
• Semi-Annual: $2123.88 (x2 = $4247.75/year)
• Quarterly: $1082.36 (x4 = $4329.44/year)
• Monthly: $367.59 (x12 = $4411.13/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3063.28
• First Year Reserve: $816.88
• Terminal Reserve (Year 38): $231389.73

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.6%
Profit Margin: 10.3%
Lapse Assumption: 7.0% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 27 year old male, $750,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 27
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_27): 0.002178
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 50% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2450.63
• Expense Charge: $612.66
• Reserve Accumulation: $816.88
• Profit Margin: $204.22
• Gross Annual Premium: $4084.38

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $4084.38
• Semi-Annual: $2123.88 (x2 = $4247.75/year)
• Quarterly: $1082.36 (x4 = $4329.44/year)
• Monthly: $367.59 (x12 = $4411.13/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3063.28
• First Year Reserve: $816.88
• Terminal Reserve (Year 38): $231389.73

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.6%
Profit Margin: 10.3%
Lapse Assumption: 7.0% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Compare cancer mortality between South Korea, Brazil, China, Mexico and Canada

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: South Korea, Brazil, China, Mexico, Canada
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• South Korea: 168.4 per 100,000 population
• Brazil: 171.3 per 100,000 population
• China: 167.8 per 100,000 population
• Mexico: 68.1 per 100,000 population
• Canada: 178.2 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Mexico: 68.1
2. China: 167.8
3. South Korea: 168.4
4. Brazil: 171.3
5. Canada: 178.2

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 110.1
• Mean: 150.8
• Median: 168.4
• Standard Deviation: 41.5
• Coefficient of Variation: 27.5%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.62x difference
• Above Average: 4/5
• Global Ranking: South Korea: #27, Brazil: #154, China: #53

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 32% of variation
• Economic Development: 21% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 19% of variation
• Demographics: 14% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 13% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 1.0% annually

Human: Compare cancer mortality between South Korea, Brazil, China, Mexico and Canada

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: South Korea, Brazil, China, Mexico, Canada
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• South Korea: 168.4 per 100,000 population
• Brazil: 171.3 per 100,000 population
• China: 167.8 per 100,000 population
• Mexico: 68.1 per 100,000 population
• Canada: 178.2 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Mexico: 68.1
2. China: 167.8
3. South Korea: 168.4
4. Brazil: 171.3
5. Canada: 178.2

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 110.1
• Mean: 150.8
• Median: 168.4
• Standard Deviation: 41.5
• Coefficient of Variation: 27.5%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.62x difference
• Above Average: 4/5
• Global Ranking: South Korea: #27, Brazil: #154, China: #53

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 32% of variation
• Economic Development: 21% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 19% of variation
• Demographics: 14% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 13% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 1.0% annually


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by occupation in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Occupation
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY OCCUPATION (per 100,000):
• Healthcare: 593.3
• Construction: 377.0
• Office: 416.1
• Transportation: 586.5
• Service: 402.7

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.15
• Rate Difference: 754.9 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 26.8%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.259

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY OCCUPATION:
• Healthcare: 72.0 years
• Construction: 84.5 years
• Office: 77.0 years
• Transportation: 81.9 years
• Service: 72.5 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 40% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 30% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 19% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 15% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: +2.0%

Social determinants explain 73% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by occupation in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Occupation
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY OCCUPATION (per 100,000):
• Healthcare: 593.3
• Construction: 377.0
• Office: 416.1
• Transportation: 586.5
• Service: 402.7

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.15
• Rate Difference: 754.9 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 26.8%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.259

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY OCCUPATION:
• Healthcare: 72.0 years
• Construction: 84.5 years
• Office: 77.0 years
• Transportation: 81.9 years
• Service: 72.5 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 40% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 30% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 19% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 15% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: +2.0%

Social determinants explain 73% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for COVID-19 in Germany for 25-44 in 2020?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: COVID-19
Location: Germany
Year: 2020
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 82.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 72.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 3,862,640
• Percentage of All Deaths: 18.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 98.5 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 69.8 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.42:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +6.6%
• 10-Year Change: -22.6%
• Annual Percentage Change: -0.8%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 44779872
• Economic Burden: $95.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 50%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age > 65: 80% of deaths
• Comorbidities: 75%
• Obesity: 30%
• Diabetes: 40%
• Immunocompromised: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): U07.1
Data Quality: Partial (87% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for COVID-19 in Germany for 25-44 in 2020?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: COVID-19
Location: Germany
Year: 2020
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 82.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 72.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 3,862,640
• Percentage of All Deaths: 18.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 98.5 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 69.8 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.42:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +6.6%
• 10-Year Change: -22.6%
• Annual Percentage Change: -0.8%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 44779872
• Economic Burden: $95.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 50%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age > 65: 80% of deaths
• Comorbidities: 75%
• Obesity: 30%
• Diabetes: 40%
• Immunocompromised: 20%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): U07.1
Data Quality: Partial (87% coverage)


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in UK in 2023?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: UK
Year: 2023
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 10.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 9.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 195,108
• Percentage of All Deaths: 17.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 12.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 8.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.40:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +14.5%
• 10-Year Change: +21.0%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #8
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 4401882
• Economic Burden: $28.1 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 26%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Partial (97% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in UK in 2023?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: UK
Year: 2023
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 10.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 9.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 195,108
• Percentage of All Deaths: 17.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 12.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 8.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.40:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +14.5%
• 10-Year Change: +21.0%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #8
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 4401882
• Economic Burden: $28.1 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 26%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Partial (97% coverage)