Instruction: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in Canada

Response:
GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: Canada
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 725.2
• Rural: 853.1
• Suburban: 700.0

Rural areas show 17.6% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.

Human: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in Canada

Actuarial AI: GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: Canada
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 725.2
• Rural: 853.1
• Suburban: 700.0

Rural areas show 17.6% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.


Instruction: Show survival curve for India female in 2018

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: India Female
Reference Year: 2018
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            2         0.00002         81.9
    1          99,998           12         0.00012         76.6
    5          99,986           18         0.00018         77.7
   10          99,968           67         0.00067         67.2
   20          99,901          102         0.00102         60.9
   30          99,799          169         0.00169         47.9
   40          99,630          248         0.00249         36.2
   50          99,382          534         0.00537         26.5
   60          98,848          807         0.00816         16.4
   70          98,041        1,080         0.01102          7.3
   80          96,961        1,258         0.01297          0.0
   90          95,703        1,762         0.01841          1.7
  100          93,941        2,527         0.02690          3.4
  110          91,414       91,414         1.00000          3.3

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 84.5 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.8%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 97.0%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.72

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 339,204 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for India female in 2018

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: India Female
Reference Year: 2018
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            2         0.00002         81.9
    1          99,998           12         0.00012         76.6
    5          99,986           18         0.00018         77.7
   10          99,968           67         0.00067         67.2
   20          99,901          102         0.00102         60.9
   30          99,799          169         0.00169         47.9
   40          99,630          248         0.00249         36.2
   50          99,382          534         0.00537         26.5
   60          98,848          807         0.00816         16.4
   70          98,041        1,080         0.01102          7.3
   80          96,961        1,258         0.01297          0.0
   90          95,703        1,762         0.01841          1.7
  100          93,941        2,527         0.02690          3.4
  110          91,414       91,414         1.00000          3.3

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 84.5 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.8%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 97.0%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.72

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 339,204 death certificates.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 7 year old male in India as of 2018?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: India
• Age: 7 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2018

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 7 (e_7): 58.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 65.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 40.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 60.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_7): 91.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_7): 84.4%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_7): 71.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_7): 0.01694
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_7): 0.01679
• Hazard Rate: 0.01708

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 7: 62.7 years
• Regional Rank: Top 37 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 337,013 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 5.0%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 7 year old male in India as of 2018?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: India
• Age: 7 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2018

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 7 (e_7): 58.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 65.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 40.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 60.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_7): 91.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_7): 84.4%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_7): 71.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_7): 0.01694
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_7): 0.01679
• Hazard Rate: 0.01708

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 7: 62.7 years
• Regional Rank: Top 37 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 337,013 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 5.0%.


Instruction: Calculate the 20-year death probability for a 38 year old with obesity, hypertension

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 38 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: obesity, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_38): 0.000549 (0.0549%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_38): 0.010924 (1.092%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_38): 0.989076 (98.908%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_38): 0.000549
• Hazard Rate (h_38): 0.000549
• Cumulative Hazard (H_38): 0.010984
• Median Future Lifetime: 1262.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.5x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.009286
• Upper Bound: 0.012563

Analysis based on 118,938 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 20-year death probability for a 38 year old with obesity, hypertension

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 38 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: obesity, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_38): 0.000549 (0.0549%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_38): 0.010924 (1.092%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_38): 0.989076 (98.908%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_38): 0.000549
• Hazard Rate (h_38): 0.000549
• Cumulative Hazard (H_38): 0.010984
• Median Future Lifetime: 1262.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.5x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.009286
• Upper Bound: 0.012563

Analysis based on 118,938 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 81?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 81 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: diabetes, heart disease, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_81): 0.004498 (0.4498%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_81): 0.022289 (2.229%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_81): 0.977711 (97.771%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_81): 0.004508
• Hazard Rate (h_81): 0.004508
• Cumulative Hazard (H_81): 0.022541
• Median Future Lifetime: 153.8 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 4.5x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 350%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.018946
• Upper Bound: 0.025632

Analysis based on 117,706 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 81?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 81 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: diabetes, heart disease, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_81): 0.004498 (0.4498%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_81): 0.022289 (2.229%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_81): 0.977711 (97.771%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_81): 0.004508
• Hazard Rate (h_81): 0.004508
• Cumulative Hazard (H_81): 0.022541
• Median Future Lifetime: 153.8 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 4.5x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 350%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.018946
• Upper Bound: 0.025632

Analysis based on 117,706 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of COVID-19

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: COVID-19
Global Deaths: 6,954,682
Case Fatality Rate: 3.6%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.15%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $4.3 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of COVID-19

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: COVID-19
Global Deaths: 6,954,682
Case Fatality Rate: 3.6%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.15%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $4.3 trillion globally.


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during seasonal flu in Italy for Q1 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: seasonal flu
Location: Italy
Period: Q1 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 99,892
• Observed Deaths: 133,426
• Excess Deaths: 33,534
• Excess Mortality Rate: 33.6%
• P-score: 33.6%
• Z-score: 4.92 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.1% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: -0.6% (3,353 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 5.8% (8,383 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 17.2% (8,383 deaths)
• 75+ years: 33.3% (13,413 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 23,812 (68%)
• Indirect (probable): 3,523 (10%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 6,166 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [28,503, 38,564]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.96

Years of Life Lost: 456864
Economic Impact: $1.1 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 345929

Human: Calculate excess mortality during seasonal flu in Italy for Q1 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: seasonal flu
Location: Italy
Period: Q1 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 99,892
• Observed Deaths: 133,426
• Excess Deaths: 33,534
• Excess Mortality Rate: 33.6%
• P-score: 33.6%
• Z-score: 4.92 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.1% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: -0.6% (3,353 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 5.8% (8,383 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 17.2% (8,383 deaths)
• 75+ years: 33.3% (13,413 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 23,812 (68%)
• Indirect (probable): 3,523 (10%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 6,166 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [28,503, 38,564]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.96

Years of Life Lost: 456864
Economic Impact: $1.1 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 345929


Instruction: Calculate the 1-year death probability for a 56 year old with cancer history

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 56 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_56): 0.000679 (0.0679%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_56): 0.000679 (0.068%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_56): 0.999321 (99.932%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_56): 0.000679
• Hazard Rate (h_56): 0.000679
• Cumulative Hazard (H_56): 0.000679
• Median Future Lifetime: 1020.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.7x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000577
• Upper Bound: 0.000781

Analysis based on 150,814 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 1-year death probability for a 56 year old with cancer history

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 56 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_56): 0.000679 (0.0679%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_56): 0.000679 (0.068%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_56): 0.999321 (99.932%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_56): 0.000679
• Hazard Rate (h_56): 0.000679
• Cumulative Hazard (H_56): 0.000679
• Median Future Lifetime: 1020.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.7x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000577
• Upper Bound: 0.000781

Analysis based on 150,814 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Compare cancer mortality between USA and Australia

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: USA, Australia
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• USA: 240.8 per 100,000 population
• Australia: 156.3 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Australia: 156.3
2. USA: 240.8

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 84.5
• Mean: 198.6
• Median: 198.6
• Standard Deviation: 42.2
• Coefficient of Variation: 21.3%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.54x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: USA: #172, Australia: #50

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 26% of variation
• Economic Development: 34% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 24% of variation
• Demographics: 18% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 15% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 1.5% annually

Human: Compare cancer mortality between USA and Australia

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: USA, Australia
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• USA: 240.8 per 100,000 population
• Australia: 156.3 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Australia: 156.3
2. USA: 240.8

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 84.5
• Mean: 198.6
• Median: 198.6
• Standard Deviation: 42.2
• Coefficient of Variation: 21.3%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.54x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: USA: #172, Australia: #50

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 26% of variation
• Economic Development: 34% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 24% of variation
• Demographics: 18% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 15% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 1.5% annually


Instruction: Summarize pension mortality experience study results

Response:
MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Pension Insurance
Study Period: 2019-2024
Exposure: 808663 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 0.99
• Deaths Actual: 3,353
• Deaths Expected: 8,167

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.82
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.07

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.80, 1.15]

Human: Summarize pension mortality experience study results

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Pension Insurance
Study Period: 2019-2024
Exposure: 808663 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 0.99
• Deaths Actual: 3,353
• Deaths Expected: 8,167

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.82
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.07

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.80, 1.15]


Instruction: Compare suburban vs other area mortality rates in USA

Response:
GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: USA
Focus: Suburban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 892.1
• Rural: 1159.2
• Suburban: 825.3

Rural areas show 29.9% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.

Human: Compare suburban vs other area mortality rates in USA

Actuarial AI: GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: USA
Focus: Suburban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 892.1
• Rural: 1159.2
• Suburban: 825.3

Rural areas show 29.9% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 16 year old over next 30 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 16 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: diabetes, obesity, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_16): 0.001742 (0.1742%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_16): 0.050967 (5.097%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_16): 0.949033 (94.903%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_16): 0.001744
• Hazard Rate (h_16): 0.001744
• Cumulative Hazard (H_16): 0.052311
• Median Future Lifetime: 397.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.7x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 74%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.043322
• Upper Bound: 0.058612

Analysis based on 147,802 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 16 year old over next 30 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 16 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: diabetes, obesity, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_16): 0.001742 (0.1742%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_16): 0.050967 (5.097%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_16): 0.949033 (94.903%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_16): 0.001744
• Hazard Rate (h_16): 0.001744
• Cumulative Hazard (H_16): 0.052311
• Median Future Lifetime: 397.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.7x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 74%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.043322
• Upper Bound: 0.058612

Analysis based on 147,802 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Transportation workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Transportation
Fatal Injury Rate: 118.2 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 4,961

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 24%
• Struck by object: 29%
• Electrocution: 14%
• Caught-in/between: 16%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $337,265

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Transportation workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Transportation
Fatal Injury Rate: 118.2 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 4,961

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 24%
• Struck by object: 29%
• Electrocution: 14%
• Caught-in/between: 16%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $337,265


Instruction: Project mortality rates for UK in 2049

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: UK
Target Year: 2049
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 546.5 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 88.4 years
• Annual Improvement: 0.92%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 464.5
• Upper: 628.5

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for UK in 2049

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: UK
Target Year: 2049
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 546.5 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 88.4 years
• Annual Improvement: 0.92%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 464.5
• Upper: 628.5

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by marital status in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Marital Status
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY MARITAL STATUS (per 100,000):
• Married: 794.1
• Single: 876.3
• Divorced: 1032.3
• Widowed: 529.1

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.86
• Rate Difference: 525.5 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 24.6%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.363

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY MARITAL STATUS:
• Married: 82.9 years
• Single: 75.6 years
• Divorced: 80.0 years
• Widowed: 76.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 24% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 18% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 11% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 16% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 11% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -0.8%

Social determinants explain 73% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by marital status in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Marital Status
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY MARITAL STATUS (per 100,000):
• Married: 794.1
• Single: 876.3
• Divorced: 1032.3
• Widowed: 529.1

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.86
• Rate Difference: 525.5 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 24.6%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.363

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY MARITAL STATUS:
• Married: 82.9 years
• Single: 75.6 years
• Divorced: 80.0 years
• Widowed: 76.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 24% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 18% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 11% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 16% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 11% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -0.8%

Social determinants explain 73% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 34 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 24
• Current Age: 34
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1012.97
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $45015.82
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $37433.18

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $34888.38
• Per $1,000 Face: $348.88

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_34:10⌉ = 0.1520
• ä_34:10⌉ = 8.2031
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $34888.38

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10700.45
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3746.61
• Interest Earned: $1384.18
• ₁₀V = $34888.38

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $33143.96
• Tax Reserve: $32097.31
• GAAP Reserve: $36632.80

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 34 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 24
• Current Age: 34
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1012.97
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $45015.82
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $37433.18

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $34888.38
• Per $1,000 Face: $348.88

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_34:10⌉ = 0.1520
• ä_34:10⌉ = 8.2031
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $34888.38

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10700.45
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3746.61
• Interest Earned: $1384.18
• ₁₀V = $34888.38

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $33143.96
• Tax Reserve: $32097.31
• GAAP Reserve: $36632.80


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 27 year old female, $750,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 27
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_27): 0.000805
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 51% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1267.93
• Expense Charge: $316.98
• Reserve Accumulation: $422.64
• Profit Margin: $105.66
• Gross Annual Premium: $2113.22

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2113.22
• Semi-Annual: $1098.87 (x2 = $2197.75/year)
• Quarterly: $560.00 (x4 = $2240.01/year)
• Monthly: $190.19 (x12 = $2282.28/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1584.92
• First Year Reserve: $422.64
• Terminal Reserve (Year 38): $369538.04

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.9%
Profit Margin: 12.1%
Lapse Assumption: 5.0% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 27 year old female, $750,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 27
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_27): 0.000805
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 51% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1267.93
• Expense Charge: $316.98
• Reserve Accumulation: $422.64
• Profit Margin: $105.66
• Gross Annual Premium: $2113.22

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2113.22
• Semi-Annual: $1098.87 (x2 = $2197.75/year)
• Quarterly: $560.00 (x4 = $2240.01/year)
• Monthly: $190.19 (x12 = $2282.28/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1584.92
• First Year Reserve: $422.64
• Terminal Reserve (Year 38): $369538.04

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.9%
Profit Margin: 12.1%
Lapse Assumption: 5.0% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 63 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 53
• Current Age: 63
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $533.08
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $55889.63
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $24169.27

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $34603.00
• Per $1,000 Face: $346.03

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_63:10⌉ = 0.2110
• ä_63:10⌉ = 9.0713
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $34603.00

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8400.78
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4530.15
• Interest Earned: $1067.29
• ₁₀V = $34603.00

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $32872.85
• Tax Reserve: $31834.76
• GAAP Reserve: $36333.15

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 63 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 53
• Current Age: 63
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $533.08
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $55889.63
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $24169.27

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $34603.00
• Per $1,000 Face: $346.03

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_63:10⌉ = 0.2110
• ä_63:10⌉ = 9.0713
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $34603.00

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8400.78
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4530.15
• Interest Earned: $1067.29
• ₁₀V = $34603.00

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $32872.85
• Tax Reserve: $31834.76
• GAAP Reserve: $36333.15


Instruction: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 67

Response:
MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 67
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.96%
• Current (2024): 2.45%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.90%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.7804
• 20-Year Factor: 0.6090
• 30-Year Factor: 0.4753

Cohort effect adjustment: Applied
Gender-specific: Yes

Human: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 67

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 67
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.96%
• Current (2024): 2.45%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.90%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.7804
• 20-Year Factor: 0.6090
• 30-Year Factor: 0.4753

Cohort effect adjustment: Applied
Gender-specific: Yes


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by ethnicity in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Ethnicity
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2020

MORTALITY RATES BY ETHNICITY (per 100,000):
• Non-Hispanic White: 312.6
• Hispanic: 1187.4
• Non-Hispanic Black: 894.2
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 1081.2

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.98
• Rate Difference: 346.3 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 15.9%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.257

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY ETHNICITY:
• Non-Hispanic White: 79.4 years
• Hispanic: 74.2 years
• Non-Hispanic Black: 73.3 years
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 75.4 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 30% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 31% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 14% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 11% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: +1.9%

Social determinants explain 62% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by ethnicity in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Ethnicity
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2020

MORTALITY RATES BY ETHNICITY (per 100,000):
• Non-Hispanic White: 312.6
• Hispanic: 1187.4
• Non-Hispanic Black: 894.2
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 1081.2

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.98
• Rate Difference: 346.3 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 15.9%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.257

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY ETHNICITY:
• Non-Hispanic White: 79.4 years
• Hispanic: 74.2 years
• Non-Hispanic Black: 73.3 years
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 75.4 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 30% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 31% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 14% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 11% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: +1.9%

Social determinants explain 62% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 46 year old both in France as of 2020?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 46 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 46 (e_46): 35.2 years
• Expected Age at Death: 81.2 years
• Median Survival Time: 24.4 years
• Modal Age at Death: 76.2 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_46): 87.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_46): 75.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_46): 57.5%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_46): 0.02765
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_46): 0.02727
• Hazard Rate: 0.02804

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 46: 36.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 18 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 130,992 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.9%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 46 year old both in France as of 2020?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 46 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 46 (e_46): 35.2 years
• Expected Age at Death: 81.2 years
• Median Survival Time: 24.4 years
• Modal Age at Death: 76.2 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_46): 87.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_46): 75.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_46): 57.5%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_46): 0.02765
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_46): 0.02727
• Hazard Rate: 0.02804

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 46: 36.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 18 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 130,992 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.9%.


Instruction: Compare maternal mortality between Russia and Spain

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Maternal Mortality
Countries: Russia, Spain
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Russia: 35.5 per 100,000 live births
• Spain: 41.9 per 100,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. Russia: 35.5
2. Spain: 41.9

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 6.3
• Mean: 38.7
• Median: 38.7
• Standard Deviation: 3.2
• Coefficient of Variation: 8.2%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.18x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Russia: #139, Spain: #38

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 34% of variation
• Economic Development: 30% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 17% of variation
• Demographics: 12% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 10% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 1.5% annually

Human: Compare maternal mortality between Russia and Spain

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Maternal Mortality
Countries: Russia, Spain
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Russia: 35.5 per 100,000 live births
• Spain: 41.9 per 100,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. Russia: 35.5
2. Spain: 41.9

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 6.3
• Mean: 38.7
• Median: 38.7
• Standard Deviation: 3.2
• Coefficient of Variation: 8.2%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.18x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Russia: #139, Spain: #38

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 34% of variation
• Economic Development: 30% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 17% of variation
• Demographics: 12% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 10% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 1.5% annually


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 36 year old over next 10 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 36 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_36): 0.000508 (0.0508%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_36): 0.005071 (0.507%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_36): 0.994929 (99.493%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_36): 0.000508
• Hazard Rate (h_36): 0.000508
• Cumulative Hazard (H_36): 0.005084
• Median Future Lifetime: 1363.4 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.5x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.004311
• Upper Bound: 0.005832

Analysis based on 85,446 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 36 year old over next 10 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 36 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_36): 0.000508 (0.0508%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_36): 0.005071 (0.507%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_36): 0.994929 (99.493%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_36): 0.000508
• Hazard Rate (h_36): 0.000508
• Cumulative Hazard (H_36): 0.005084
• Median Future Lifetime: 1363.4 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.5x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.004311
• Upper Bound: 0.005832

Analysis based on 85,446 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Kidney Disease in Canada in 2022?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Kidney Disease
Location: Canada
Year: 2022
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 16.3 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 14.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 548,207
• Percentage of All Deaths: 24.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 19.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 13.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.32:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -10.5%
• 10-Year Change: +21.8%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.7%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 12262123
• Economic Burden: $11.2 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 33%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): N00-N19
Data Quality: Partial (99% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Kidney Disease in Canada in 2022?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Kidney Disease
Location: Canada
Year: 2022
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 16.3 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 14.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 548,207
• Percentage of All Deaths: 24.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 19.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 13.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.32:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -10.5%
• 10-Year Change: +21.8%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.7%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 12262123
• Economic Burden: $11.2 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 33%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): N00-N19
Data Quality: Partial (99% coverage)


Instruction: Show survival curve for India male in 2015

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: India Male
Reference Year: 2015
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         83.0
    1          99,997           16         0.00016         77.3
    5          99,981           28         0.00028         73.0
   10          99,953           67         0.00067         72.5
   20          99,886          175         0.00175         60.0
   30          99,711          253         0.00254         45.7
   40          99,458          493         0.00496         35.6
   50          98,965          689         0.00696         27.6
   60          98,276        1,137         0.01157         18.7
   70          97,139        1,395         0.01436          9.2
   80          95,744        2,308         0.02411          0.0
   90          93,436        2,746         0.02939          3.2
  100          90,690        3,051         0.03364          2.9
  110          87,639       87,639         1.00000          2.9

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.1 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.3%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 95.7%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.72

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 235,766 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for India male in 2015

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: India Male
Reference Year: 2015
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         83.0
    1          99,997           16         0.00016         77.3
    5          99,981           28         0.00028         73.0
   10          99,953           67         0.00067         72.5
   20          99,886          175         0.00175         60.0
   30          99,711          253         0.00254         45.7
   40          99,458          493         0.00496         35.6
   50          98,965          689         0.00696         27.6
   60          98,276        1,137         0.01157         18.7
   70          97,139        1,395         0.01436          9.2
   80          95,744        2,308         0.02411          0.0
   90          93,436        2,746         0.02939          3.2
  100          90,690        3,051         0.03364          2.9
  110          87,639       87,639         1.00000          2.9

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.1 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.3%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 95.7%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.72

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 235,766 death certificates.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 95 year old both in Canada as of 2018?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Canada
• Age: 95 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2018

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 95 (e_95): 0.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 95.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 0.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 90.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_95): 0.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_95): 0.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_95): 0.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_95): 1.00000
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_95): 0.63212
• Hazard Rate: 4.60517

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 95: -12.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 19 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 175,340 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.1%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 95 year old both in Canada as of 2018?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Canada
• Age: 95 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2018

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 95 (e_95): 0.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 95.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 0.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 90.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_95): 0.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_95): 0.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_95): 0.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_95): 1.00000
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_95): 0.63212
• Hazard Rate: 4.60517

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 95: -12.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 19 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 175,340 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.1%.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 60?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 60 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: hypertension, heart disease, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_60): 0.004835 (0.4835%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_60): 0.023944 (2.394%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_60): 0.976056 (97.606%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_60): 0.004847
• Hazard Rate (h_60): 0.004847
• Cumulative Hazard (H_60): 0.024235
• Median Future Lifetime: 143.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 4.8x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 384%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.020352
• Upper Bound: 0.027535

Analysis based on 82,576 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 60?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 60 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: hypertension, heart disease, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_60): 0.004835 (0.4835%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_60): 0.023944 (2.394%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_60): 0.976056 (97.606%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_60): 0.004847
• Hazard Rate (h_60): 0.004847
• Cumulative Hazard (H_60): 0.024235
• Median Future Lifetime: 143.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 4.8x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 384%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.020352
• Upper Bound: 0.027535

Analysis based on 82,576 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 72 year old over next 10 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 72 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: obesity, diabetes, heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_72): 0.003832 (0.3832%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_72): 0.037668 (3.767%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_72): 0.962332 (96.233%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_72): 0.003840
• Hazard Rate (h_72): 0.003840
• Cumulative Hazard (H_72): 0.038396
• Median Future Lifetime: 180.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 3.8x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 283%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.032018
• Upper Bound: 0.043319

Analysis based on 50,722 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 72 year old over next 10 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 72 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: obesity, diabetes, heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_72): 0.003832 (0.3832%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_72): 0.037668 (3.767%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_72): 0.962332 (96.233%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_72): 0.003840
• Hazard Rate (h_72): 0.003840
• Cumulative Hazard (H_72): 0.038396
• Median Future Lifetime: 180.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 3.8x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 283%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.032018
• Upper Bound: 0.043319

Analysis based on 50,722 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 92 year old male in Japan as of 2022?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Japan
• Age: 92 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2022

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 92 (e_92): -2.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 89.4 years
• Median Survival Time: -1.8 years
• Modal Age at Death: 84.4 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_92): 100.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_92): 100.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_92): 100.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_92): -0.62993
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_92): -0.87748
• Hazard Rate: -0.48854

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 92: -7.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 44 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 394,489 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.6%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 92 year old male in Japan as of 2022?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Japan
• Age: 92 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2022

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 92 (e_92): -2.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 89.4 years
• Median Survival Time: -1.8 years
• Modal Age at Death: 84.4 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_92): 100.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_92): 100.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_92): 100.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_92): -0.62993
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_92): -0.87748
• Hazard Rate: -0.48854

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 92: -7.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 44 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 394,489 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.6%.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 65 year old both in France as of 2023?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 65 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2023

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 65 (e_65): 19.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 84.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 13.6 years
• Modal Age at Death: 79.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_65): 78.4%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_65): 61.5%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_65): 37.8%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_65): 0.04864
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_65): 0.04748
• Hazard Rate: 0.04986

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 65: 17.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 14 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 363,618 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.9%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 65 year old both in France as of 2023?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 65 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2023

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 65 (e_65): 19.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 84.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 13.6 years
• Modal Age at Death: 79.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_65): 78.4%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_65): 61.5%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_65): 37.8%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_65): 0.04864
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_65): 0.04748
• Hazard Rate: 0.04986

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 65: 17.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 14 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 363,618 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.9%.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Septicemia in Australia for 25-44 in 2020?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Septicemia
Location: Australia
Year: 2020
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 8.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 7.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 229,918
• Percentage of All Deaths: 8.5%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 10.0 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 7.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.31:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -10.9%
• 10-Year Change: +13.6%
• Annual Percentage Change: -0.9%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #14
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 3957464
• Economic Burden: $48.2 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 52%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A40-A41
Data Quality: Near-Complete (96% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Septicemia in Australia for 25-44 in 2020?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Septicemia
Location: Australia
Year: 2020
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 8.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 7.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 229,918
• Percentage of All Deaths: 8.5%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 10.0 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 7.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.31:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -10.9%
• 10-Year Change: +13.6%
• Annual Percentage Change: -0.9%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #14
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 3957464
• Economic Burden: $48.2 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 52%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A40-A41
Data Quality: Near-Complete (96% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 41 year old male, $100,000 coverage, 15 year term, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Term Length: 15 years
• Issue Age: 41
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_41): 0.001737
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 74% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $104.21
• Expense Charge: $26.05
• Reserve Accumulation: $34.74
• Profit Margin: $8.68
• Gross Annual Premium: $173.69

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $173.69
• Semi-Annual: $90.32 (x2 = $180.63/year)
• Quarterly: $46.03 (x4 = $184.11/year)
• Monthly: $15.63 (x12 = $187.58/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $130.26
• First Year Reserve: $34.74
• Terminal Reserve (Year 15): $57177.75

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.7%
Profit Margin: 8.7%
Lapse Assumption: 6.0% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 41 year old male, $100,000 coverage, 15 year term, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Term Length: 15 years
• Issue Age: 41
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_41): 0.001737
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 74% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $104.21
• Expense Charge: $26.05
• Reserve Accumulation: $34.74
• Profit Margin: $8.68
• Gross Annual Premium: $173.69

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $173.69
• Semi-Annual: $90.32 (x2 = $180.63/year)
• Quarterly: $46.03 (x4 = $184.11/year)
• Monthly: $15.63 (x12 = $187.58/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $130.26
• First Year Reserve: $34.74
• Terminal Reserve (Year 15): $57177.75

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.7%
Profit Margin: 8.7%
Lapse Assumption: 6.0% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by race in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Race
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY RACE (per 100,000):
• White: 574.7
• Black: 541.0
• Asian: 739.1
• Hispanic: 553.3
• Native American: 449.9

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.77
• Rate Difference: 252.5 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 38.2%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.365

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY RACE:
• White: 82.4 years
• Black: 82.1 years
• Asian: 84.2 years
• Hispanic: 71.9 years
• Native American: 80.2 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 20% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 34% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 19% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 14% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: +1.6%

Social determinants explain 65% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by race in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Race
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY RACE (per 100,000):
• White: 574.7
• Black: 541.0
• Asian: 739.1
• Hispanic: 553.3
• Native American: 449.9

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.77
• Rate Difference: 252.5 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 38.2%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.365

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY RACE:
• White: 82.4 years
• Black: 82.1 years
• Asian: 84.2 years
• Hispanic: 71.9 years
• Native American: 80.2 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 20% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 34% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 19% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 14% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: +1.6%

Social determinants explain 65% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Compare cardiovascular mortality between UK, Canada, Japan and China

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cardiovascular Mortality
Countries: UK, Canada, Japan, China
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• UK: 78.1 per 100,000 population
• Canada: 70.6 per 100,000 population
• Japan: 125.0 per 100,000 population
• China: 243.0 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Canada: 70.6
2. UK: 78.1
3. Japan: 125.0
4. China: 243.0

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 172.4
• Mean: 129.1
• Median: 101.5
• Standard Deviation: 68.9
• Coefficient of Variation: 53.4%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 3.44x difference
• Above Average: 1/4
• Global Ranking: UK: #95, Canada: #24, Japan: #84

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 25% of variation
• Economic Development: 30% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 19% of variation
• Demographics: 11% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 14% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 0.9% annually

Human: Compare cardiovascular mortality between UK, Canada, Japan and China

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cardiovascular Mortality
Countries: UK, Canada, Japan, China
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• UK: 78.1 per 100,000 population
• Canada: 70.6 per 100,000 population
• Japan: 125.0 per 100,000 population
• China: 243.0 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Canada: 70.6
2. UK: 78.1
3. Japan: 125.0
4. China: 243.0

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 172.4
• Mean: 129.1
• Median: 101.5
• Standard Deviation: 68.9
• Coefficient of Variation: 53.4%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 3.44x difference
• Above Average: 1/4
• Global Ranking: UK: #95, Canada: #24, Japan: #84

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 25% of variation
• Economic Development: 30% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 19% of variation
• Demographics: 11% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 14% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Converging at 0.9% annually


Instruction: Compare cardiovascular mortality between Japan and Russia

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cardiovascular Mortality
Countries: Japan, Russia
Reference Year: 2020

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Japan: 105.0 per 100,000 population
• Russia: 192.9 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Japan: 105.0
2. Russia: 192.9

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 88.0
• Mean: 148.9
• Median: 148.9
• Standard Deviation: 44.0
• Coefficient of Variation: 29.5%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.84x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Japan: #8, Russia: #119

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 23% of variation
• Economic Development: 31% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 24% of variation
• Demographics: 15% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 9% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.2% annually

Human: Compare cardiovascular mortality between Japan and Russia

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cardiovascular Mortality
Countries: Japan, Russia
Reference Year: 2020

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Japan: 105.0 per 100,000 population
• Russia: 192.9 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Japan: 105.0
2. Russia: 192.9

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 88.0
• Mean: 148.9
• Median: 148.9
• Standard Deviation: 44.0
• Coefficient of Variation: 29.5%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.84x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Japan: #8, Russia: #119

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 23% of variation
• Economic Development: 31% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 24% of variation
• Demographics: 15% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 9% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.2% annually


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 39 year old female in Germany as of 2017?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Germany
• Age: 39 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 39 (e_39): 46.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 85.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 32.3 years
• Modal Age at Death: 80.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_39): 90.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_39): 81.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_39): 65.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_39): 0.02102
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_39): 0.02080
• Hazard Rate: 0.02125

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 39: 42.2 years
• Regional Rank: Top 29 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 424,467 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.9%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 39 year old female in Germany as of 2017?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Germany
• Age: 39 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 39 (e_39): 46.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 85.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 32.3 years
• Modal Age at Death: 80.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_39): 90.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_39): 81.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_39): 65.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_39): 0.02102
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_39): 0.02080
• Hazard Rate: 0.02125

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 39: 42.2 years
• Regional Rank: Top 29 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 424,467 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.9%.


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of Spanish Flu

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: Spanish Flu
Global Deaths: 59,302,386
Case Fatality Rate: 5.1%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.94%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $7.3 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of Spanish Flu

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: Spanish Flu
Global Deaths: 59,302,386
Case Fatality Rate: 5.1%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.94%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $7.3 trillion globally.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 94 year old female in UK as of 2023?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: UK
• Age: 94 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2023

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 94 (e_94): 3.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 97.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 2.7 years
• Modal Age at Death: 92.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_94): 36.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_94): 13.1%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_94): 1.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_94): 0.20354
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_94): 0.18416
• Hazard Rate: 0.22758

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 94: -12.7 years
• Regional Rank: Top 29 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 431,975 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.3%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 94 year old female in UK as of 2023?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: UK
• Age: 94 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2023

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 94 (e_94): 3.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 97.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 2.7 years
• Modal Age at Death: 92.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_94): 36.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_94): 13.1%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_94): 1.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_94): 0.20354
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_94): 0.18416
• Hazard Rate: 0.22758

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 94: -12.7 years
• Regional Rank: Top 29 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 431,975 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.3%.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in France for 45-64 in 2024?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: France
Year: 2024
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 10.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 9.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 156,786
• Percentage of All Deaths: 23.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 12.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 8.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.34:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -5.8%
• 10-Year Change: -14.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.9%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #7
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 1867040
• Economic Burden: $47.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 32%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Near-Complete (91% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in France for 45-64 in 2024?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: France
Year: 2024
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 10.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 9.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 156,786
• Percentage of All Deaths: 23.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 12.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 8.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.34:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -5.8%
• 10-Year Change: -14.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.9%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #7
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 1867040
• Economic Burden: $47.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 32%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Near-Complete (91% coverage)


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 37?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 37 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_37): 0.000433 (0.0433%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_37): 0.002164 (0.216%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_37): 0.997836 (99.784%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_37): 0.000433
• Hazard Rate (h_37): 0.000433
• Cumulative Hazard (H_37): 0.002167
• Median Future Lifetime: 1599.7 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.001840
• Upper Bound: 0.002489

Analysis based on 174,758 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 37?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 37 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_37): 0.000433 (0.0433%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_37): 0.002164 (0.216%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_37): 0.997836 (99.784%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_37): 0.000433
• Hazard Rate (h_37): 0.000433
• Cumulative Hazard (H_37): 0.002167
• Median Future Lifetime: 1599.7 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.001840
• Upper Bound: 0.002489

Analysis based on 174,758 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Compare cardiovascular mortality between Germany, USA, China and India

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cardiovascular Mortality
Countries: Germany, USA, China, India
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Germany: 126.0 per 100,000 population
• USA: 76.7 per 100,000 population
• China: 140.8 per 100,000 population
• India: 167.1 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. USA: 76.7
2. Germany: 126.0
3. China: 140.8
4. India: 167.1

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 90.4
• Mean: 127.7
• Median: 133.4
• Standard Deviation: 32.9
• Coefficient of Variation: 25.7%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.18x difference
• Above Average: 2/4
• Global Ranking: Germany: #154, USA: #4, China: #13

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 34% of variation
• Economic Development: 35% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 15% of variation
• Demographics: 19% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 14% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.5% annually

Human: Compare cardiovascular mortality between Germany, USA, China and India

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cardiovascular Mortality
Countries: Germany, USA, China, India
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Germany: 126.0 per 100,000 population
• USA: 76.7 per 100,000 population
• China: 140.8 per 100,000 population
• India: 167.1 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. USA: 76.7
2. Germany: 126.0
3. China: 140.8
4. India: 167.1

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 90.4
• Mean: 127.7
• Median: 133.4
• Standard Deviation: 32.9
• Coefficient of Variation: 25.7%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.18x difference
• Above Average: 2/4
• Global Ranking: Germany: #154, USA: #4, China: #13

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 34% of variation
• Economic Development: 35% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 15% of variation
• Demographics: 19% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 14% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.5% annually


Instruction: Calculate the 20-year death probability for a 77 year oldsmoker

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 77 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_77): 0.002256 (0.2256%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_77): 0.044171 (4.417%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_77): 0.955829 (95.583%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_77): 0.002259
• Hazard Rate (h_77): 0.002259
• Cumulative Hazard (H_77): 0.045176
• Median Future Lifetime: 306.9 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.3x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 126%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.037545
• Upper Bound: 0.050796

Analysis based on 58,783 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 20-year death probability for a 77 year oldsmoker

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 77 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_77): 0.002256 (0.2256%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_77): 0.044171 (4.417%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_77): 0.955829 (95.583%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_77): 0.002259
• Hazard Rate (h_77): 0.002259
• Cumulative Hazard (H_77): 0.045176
• Median Future Lifetime: 306.9 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.3x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 126%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.037545
• Upper Bound: 0.050796

Analysis based on 58,783 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1939 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1939
Current Age: 85 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,861,144

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 73.8 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 89.0 years
• Survival to Current Age: 79.8%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• World War II

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 46.5 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 29.3 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 31%

Cohort effects explain 11% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1939 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1939
Current Age: 85 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 3,861,144

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 73.8 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 89.0 years
• Survival to Current Age: 79.8%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• World War II

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 46.5 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 29.3 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 31%

Cohort effects explain 11% of mortality variation.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Cancer in Canada for Under 25 in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Cancer
Location: Canada
Year: 2021
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 169.2 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 147.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 6,042,473
• Percentage of All Deaths: 18.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 203.0 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 143.8 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.46:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +13.6%
• 10-Year Change: +5.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.9%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #2
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 180258200
• Economic Burden: $18.8 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 55%

RISK FACTORS:
• Tobacco use: 30% attributable
• Diet: 20%
• Infections: 15%
• Alcohol: 10%
• Environmental: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): C00-C97
Data Quality: Partial (90% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Cancer in Canada for Under 25 in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Cancer
Location: Canada
Year: 2021
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 169.2 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 147.7 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 6,042,473
• Percentage of All Deaths: 18.8%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 203.0 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 143.8 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.46:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +13.6%
• 10-Year Change: +5.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.9%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #2
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 180258200
• Economic Burden: $18.8 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 55%

RISK FACTORS:
• Tobacco use: 30% attributable
• Diet: 20%
• Infections: 15%
• Alcohol: 10%
• Environmental: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): C00-C97
Data Quality: Partial (90% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 58 year old male, $1,000,000 coverage, 20 year term, Preferred Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Term Length: 20 years
• Issue Age: 58
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_58): 0.002449
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.6x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 70% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1469.29
• Expense Charge: $367.32
• Reserve Accumulation: $489.76
• Profit Margin: $122.44
• Gross Annual Premium: $2448.81

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2448.81
• Semi-Annual: $1273.38 (x2 = $2546.76/year)
• Quarterly: $648.94 (x4 = $2595.74/year)
• Monthly: $220.39 (x12 = $2644.72/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1836.61
• First Year Reserve: $489.76
• Terminal Reserve (Year 20): $459798.07

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.7%
Profit Margin: 11.1%
Lapse Assumption: 7.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 58 year old male, $1,000,000 coverage, 20 year term, Preferred Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Term Length: 20 years
• Issue Age: 58
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_58): 0.002449
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.6x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 70% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1469.29
• Expense Charge: $367.32
• Reserve Accumulation: $489.76
• Profit Margin: $122.44
• Gross Annual Premium: $2448.81

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2448.81
• Semi-Annual: $1273.38 (x2 = $2546.76/year)
• Quarterly: $648.94 (x4 = $2595.74/year)
• Monthly: $220.39 (x12 = $2644.72/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1836.61
• First Year Reserve: $489.76
• Terminal Reserve (Year 20): $459798.07

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.7%
Profit Margin: 11.1%
Lapse Assumption: 7.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in Germany in 2024?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: Germany
Year: 2024
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 13.8 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 12.2 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 323,046
• Percentage of All Deaths: 22.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 16.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 11.7 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.44:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -4.4%
• 10-Year Change: +6.3%
• Annual Percentage Change: -3.0%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #7
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 6131114
• Economic Burden: $70.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 31%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Near-Complete (97% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in Germany in 2024?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: Germany
Year: 2024
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 13.8 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 12.2 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 323,046
• Percentage of All Deaths: 22.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 16.6 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 11.7 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.44:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -4.4%
• 10-Year Change: +6.3%
• Annual Percentage Change: -3.0%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #7
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 6131114
• Economic Burden: $70.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 31%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Near-Complete (97% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in UK for Q2 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: UK
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 92,514
• Observed Deaths: 130,138
• Excess Deaths: 37,624
• Excess Mortality Rate: 40.7%
• P-score: 40.7%
• Z-score: 5.03 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.7% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: -2.7% (3,762 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 19.2% (9,406 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 16.1% (9,406 deaths)
• 75+ years: 15.1% (15,049 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 28,180 (51%)
• Indirect (probable): 4,027 (22%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 6,723 (17%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [31,980, 43,267]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 432832
Economic Impact: $5.0 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 434985

Human: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in UK for Q2 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: UK
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 92,514
• Observed Deaths: 130,138
• Excess Deaths: 37,624
• Excess Mortality Rate: 40.7%
• P-score: 40.7%
• Z-score: 5.03 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: 5-year average
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 1.7% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: -2.7% (3,762 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 19.2% (9,406 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 16.1% (9,406 deaths)
• 75+ years: 15.1% (15,049 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 28,180 (51%)
• Indirect (probable): 4,027 (22%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 6,723 (17%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [31,980, 43,267]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 432832
Economic Impact: $5.0 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 434985


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 67 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 67
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_67): 0.003665
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 98% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $7696.18
• Expense Charge: $1924.05
• Reserve Accumulation: $2565.39
• Profit Margin: $641.35
• Gross Annual Premium: $12826.97

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $12826.97
• Semi-Annual: $6670.03 (x2 = $13340.05/year)
• Quarterly: $3399.15 (x4 = $13596.59/year)
• Monthly: $1154.43 (x12 = $13853.13/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $9620.23
• First Year Reserve: $2565.39
• Terminal Reserve (Year -2): $616094.17

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.8%
Profit Margin: 11.9%
Lapse Assumption: 5.7% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 67 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 67
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_67): 0.003665
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 98% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $7696.18
• Expense Charge: $1924.05
• Reserve Accumulation: $2565.39
• Profit Margin: $641.35
• Gross Annual Premium: $12826.97

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $12826.97
• Semi-Annual: $6670.03 (x2 = $13340.05/year)
• Quarterly: $3399.15 (x4 = $13596.59/year)
• Monthly: $1154.43 (x12 = $13853.13/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $9620.23
• First Year Reserve: $2565.39
• Terminal Reserve (Year -2): $616094.17

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.8%
Profit Margin: 11.9%
Lapse Assumption: 5.7% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1959 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1959
Current Age: 65 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,518,573

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 66.8 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 86.2 years
• Survival to Current Age: 66.9%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• High smoking prevalence
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 17.4 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 31.1 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 38%

Cohort effects explain 14% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1959 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1959
Current Age: 65 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,518,573

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 66.8 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 86.2 years
• Survival to Current Age: 66.9%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• High smoking prevalence
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 17.4 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 31.1 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 38%

Cohort effects explain 14% of mortality variation.


Instruction: Compare cancer mortality between USA, Brazil, UK, Japan and Italy

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: USA, Brazil, UK, Japan, Italy
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• USA: 140.9 per 100,000 population
• Brazil: 233.2 per 100,000 population
• UK: 248.0 per 100,000 population
• Japan: 134.4 per 100,000 population
• Italy: 169.6 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Japan: 134.4
2. USA: 140.9
3. Italy: 169.6
4. Brazil: 233.2
5. UK: 248.0

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 113.7
• Mean: 185.2
• Median: 169.6
• Standard Deviation: 47.0
• Coefficient of Variation: 25.4%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.85x difference
• Above Average: 2/5
• Global Ranking: USA: #68, Brazil: #184, UK: #40

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 27% of variation
• Economic Development: 23% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 14% of variation
• Demographics: 15% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 14% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 0.9% annually

Human: Compare cancer mortality between USA, Brazil, UK, Japan and Italy

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: USA, Brazil, UK, Japan, Italy
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• USA: 140.9 per 100,000 population
• Brazil: 233.2 per 100,000 population
• UK: 248.0 per 100,000 population
• Japan: 134.4 per 100,000 population
• Italy: 169.6 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Japan: 134.4
2. USA: 140.9
3. Italy: 169.6
4. Brazil: 233.2
5. UK: 248.0

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 113.7
• Mean: 185.2
• Median: 169.6
• Standard Deviation: 47.0
• Coefficient of Variation: 25.4%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.85x difference
• Above Average: 2/5
• Global Ranking: USA: #68, Brazil: #184, UK: #40

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 27% of variation
• Economic Development: 23% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 14% of variation
• Demographics: 15% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 14% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 0.9% annually


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 21 year old over next 10 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 21 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: hypertension, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_21): 0.000394 (0.0394%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_21): 0.003932 (0.393%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_21): 0.996068 (99.607%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_21): 0.000394
• Hazard Rate (h_21): 0.000394
• Cumulative Hazard (H_21): 0.003940
• Median Future Lifetime: 1759.2 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.003342
• Upper Bound: 0.004522

Analysis based on 156,033 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 21 year old over next 10 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 21 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: hypertension, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_21): 0.000394 (0.0394%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_21): 0.003932 (0.393%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_21): 0.996068 (99.607%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_21): 0.000394
• Hazard Rate (h_21): 0.000394
• Cumulative Hazard (H_21): 0.003940
• Median Future Lifetime: 1759.2 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.003342
• Upper Bound: 0.004522

Analysis based on 156,033 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 44 year old male, $2,000,000 coverage, 30 year term, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Term Length: 30 years
• Issue Age: 44
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_44): 0.002303
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 62% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2764.12
• Expense Charge: $691.03
• Reserve Accumulation: $921.37
• Profit Margin: $230.34
• Gross Annual Premium: $4606.87

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $4606.87
• Semi-Annual: $2395.57 (x2 = $4791.14/year)
• Quarterly: $1220.82 (x4 = $4883.28/year)
• Monthly: $414.62 (x12 = $4975.42/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3455.15
• First Year Reserve: $921.37
• Terminal Reserve (Year 30): $739784.90

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.0%
Profit Margin: 14.3%
Lapse Assumption: 3.2% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 44 year old male, $2,000,000 coverage, 30 year term, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Term Length: 30 years
• Issue Age: 44
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_44): 0.002303
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 62% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2764.12
• Expense Charge: $691.03
• Reserve Accumulation: $921.37
• Profit Margin: $230.34
• Gross Annual Premium: $4606.87

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $4606.87
• Semi-Annual: $2395.57 (x2 = $4791.14/year)
• Quarterly: $1220.82 (x4 = $4883.28/year)
• Monthly: $414.62 (x12 = $4975.42/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3455.15
• First Year Reserve: $921.37
• Terminal Reserve (Year 30): $739784.90

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 8.0%
Profit Margin: 14.3%
Lapse Assumption: 3.2% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Analyze mortality trends in USA from 2000-2022

Response:
MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2000-2022

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: -1.9%
• Total Change: -25.0%
• Trend Direction: Worsening
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 0.8 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by -106 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 23% of improvement
• Public health measures: 28%
• Lifestyle changes: +17%
• Environmental factors: +12%

Human: Analyze mortality trends in USA from 2000-2022

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2000-2022

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: -1.9%
• Total Change: -25.0%
• Trend Direction: Worsening
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 0.8 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by -106 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 23% of improvement
• Public health measures: 28%
• Lifestyle changes: +17%
• Environmental factors: +12%


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Alzheimer's in France for 25-44 in 2022?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Alzheimer's
Location: France
Year: 2022
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 37.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 31.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,153,192
• Percentage of All Deaths: 15.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 44.5 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 31.5 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.48:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -4.3%
• 10-Year Change: -23.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.1%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 24878238
• Economic Burden: $56.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 34%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age: Primary factor
• Genetics (APOE4): 25%
• Education level: -15%
• Cardiovascular health: 20%
• Head trauma: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): G30
Data Quality: Partial (89% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Alzheimer's in France for 25-44 in 2022?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Alzheimer's
Location: France
Year: 2022
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 37.1 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 31.6 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 1,153,192
• Percentage of All Deaths: 15.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 44.5 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 31.5 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.48:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -4.3%
• 10-Year Change: -23.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: -1.1%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 24878238
• Economic Burden: $56.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 34%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age: Primary factor
• Genetics (APOE4): 25%
• Education level: -15%
• Cardiovascular health: 20%
• Head trauma: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): G30
Data Quality: Partial (89% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 40 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 30
• Current Age: 40
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $557.56
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $50487.86
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $25716.12

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $23146.48
• Per $1,000 Face: $231.46

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_40:10⌉ = 0.1784
• ä_40:10⌉ = 8.1394
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $23146.48

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10263.21
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $5176.40
• Interest Earned: $1864.54
• ₁₀V = $23146.48

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $21989.15
• Tax Reserve: $21294.76
• GAAP Reserve: $24303.80

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 40 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 30
• Current Age: 40
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $557.56
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $50487.86
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $25716.12

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $23146.48
• Per $1,000 Face: $231.46

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_40:10⌉ = 0.1784
• ä_40:10⌉ = 8.1394
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $23146.48

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10263.21
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $5176.40
• Interest Earned: $1864.54
• ₁₀V = $23146.48

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $21989.15
• Tax Reserve: $21294.76
• GAAP Reserve: $24303.80