Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 87 year old both in Canada as of 2015?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Canada
• Age: 87 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2015

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 87 (e_87): 0.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 87.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 0.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 82.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_87): 0.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_87): 0.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_87): 0.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_87): 1.00000
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_87): 0.63212
• Hazard Rate: 4.60517

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 87: -4.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 36 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 334,200 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.8%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 87 year old both in Canada as of 2015?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Canada
• Age: 87 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2015

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 87 (e_87): 0.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 87.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 0.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 82.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_87): 0.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_87): 0.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_87): 0.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_87): 1.00000
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_87): 0.63212
• Hazard Rate: 4.60517

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 87: -4.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 36 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 334,200 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.8%.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 48 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 38
• Current Age: 48
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1247.26
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $46428.57
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $37543.75

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $26401.54
• Per $1,000 Face: $264.02

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_48:10⌉ = 0.1583
• ä_48:10⌉ = 9.7829
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $26401.54

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10509.11
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $5066.55
• Interest Earned: $1252.05
• ₁₀V = $26401.54

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $25081.46
• Tax Reserve: $24289.41
• GAAP Reserve: $27721.61

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 48 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 38
• Current Age: 48
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1247.26
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $46428.57
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $37543.75

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $26401.54
• Per $1,000 Face: $264.02

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_48:10⌉ = 0.1583
• ä_48:10⌉ = 9.7829
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $26401.54

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10509.11
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $5066.55
• Interest Earned: $1252.05
• ₁₀V = $26401.54

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $25081.46
• Tax Reserve: $24289.41
• GAAP Reserve: $27721.61


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 46 year old female, $750,000 coverage, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 46
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_46): 0.002022
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 75% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2274.89
• Expense Charge: $568.72
• Reserve Accumulation: $758.30
• Profit Margin: $189.57
• Gross Annual Premium: $3791.48

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3791.48
• Semi-Annual: $1971.57 (x2 = $3943.14/year)
• Quarterly: $1004.74 (x4 = $4018.97/year)
• Monthly: $341.23 (x12 = $4094.80/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2843.61
• First Year Reserve: $758.30
• Terminal Reserve (Year 19): $314031.98

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.2%
Profit Margin: 8.0%
Lapse Assumption: 5.4% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 46 year old female, $750,000 coverage, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 46
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_46): 0.002022
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 75% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2274.89
• Expense Charge: $568.72
• Reserve Accumulation: $758.30
• Profit Margin: $189.57
• Gross Annual Premium: $3791.48

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3791.48
• Semi-Annual: $1971.57 (x2 = $3943.14/year)
• Quarterly: $1004.74 (x4 = $4018.97/year)
• Monthly: $341.23 (x12 = $4094.80/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2843.61
• First Year Reserve: $758.30
• Terminal Reserve (Year 19): $314031.98

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.2%
Profit Margin: 8.0%
Lapse Assumption: 5.4% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 60 year old both in India as of 2024?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: India
• Age: 60 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2024

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 60 (e_60): 9.1 years
• Expected Age at Death: 69.1 years
• Median Survival Time: 6.3 years
• Modal Age at Death: 64.1 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_60): 61.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_60): 37.3%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_60): 13.9%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_60): 0.09854
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_60): 0.09384
• Hazard Rate: 0.10374

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 60: 9.7 years
• Regional Rank: Top 26 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 312,448 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.6%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 60 year old both in India as of 2024?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: India
• Age: 60 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2024

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 60 (e_60): 9.1 years
• Expected Age at Death: 69.1 years
• Median Survival Time: 6.3 years
• Modal Age at Death: 64.1 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_60): 61.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_60): 37.3%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_60): 13.9%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_60): 0.09854
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_60): 0.09384
• Hazard Rate: 0.10374

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 60: 9.7 years
• Regional Rank: Top 26 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 312,448 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.6%.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 30?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 30 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: cancer history, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_30): 0.001609 (0.1609%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_30): 0.001609 (0.161%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_30): 0.998391 (99.839%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_30): 0.001610
• Hazard Rate (h_30): 0.001610
• Cumulative Hazard (H_30): 0.001610
• Median Future Lifetime: 430.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.6x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 61%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.001367
• Upper Bound: 0.001850

Analysis based on 160,619 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 30?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 30 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: cancer history, hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_30): 0.001609 (0.1609%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_30): 0.001609 (0.161%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_30): 0.998391 (99.839%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_30): 0.001610
• Hazard Rate (h_30): 0.001610
• Cumulative Hazard (H_30): 0.001610
• Median Future Lifetime: 430.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.6x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 61%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.001367
• Upper Bound: 0.001850

Analysis based on 160,619 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Calculate the present value of a life annuity for a 59 year old at 5.0% interest

Response:
LIFE ANNUITY VALUATION

Parameters:
• Age (x): 59
• Interest Rate (i): 5.01%
• Discount Factor (v): 0.952267
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO

ANNUITY VALUES:
• Whole Life Annuity-Due (ä_59): 19.5410
• Whole Life Annuity-Immediate (a_59): 18.5410
• Temporary Annuity-Due (ä_59:20⌉): 14.9874
• Deferred Annuity (₁₀|ä_59): 10.0609

COMMUTATION FUNCTIONS:
• D_59 = v^59 × l_59: 1053.23
• N_59 = Σ D_k (k≥59): 16730.78
• S_59 = Σ N_k (k≥59): 221757.83

CALCULATION:
ä_59 = N_59 / D_59 = 19.5410

MONTHLY CONVERSION:
• Annual Annuity: $10000.00
• Monthly Payment: $837.17
• Conversion Factor (12): 11.724

Present Value of $1,000/month for life: $19092021.08

Human: Calculate the present value of a life annuity for a 59 year old at 5.0% interest

Actuarial AI: LIFE ANNUITY VALUATION

Parameters:
• Age (x): 59
• Interest Rate (i): 5.01%
• Discount Factor (v): 0.952267
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO

ANNUITY VALUES:
• Whole Life Annuity-Due (ä_59): 19.5410
• Whole Life Annuity-Immediate (a_59): 18.5410
• Temporary Annuity-Due (ä_59:20⌉): 14.9874
• Deferred Annuity (₁₀|ä_59): 10.0609

COMMUTATION FUNCTIONS:
• D_59 = v^59 × l_59: 1053.23
• N_59 = Σ D_k (k≥59): 16730.78
• S_59 = Σ N_k (k≥59): 221757.83

CALCULATION:
ä_59 = N_59 / D_59 = 19.5410

MONTHLY CONVERSION:
• Annual Annuity: $10000.00
• Monthly Payment: $837.17
• Conversion Factor (12): 11.724

Present Value of $1,000/month for life: $19092021.08


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 70 year old female, $100,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 70
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_70): 0.003375
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 91% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $708.80
• Expense Charge: $177.20
• Reserve Accumulation: $236.27
• Profit Margin: $59.07
• Gross Annual Premium: $1181.33

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $1181.33
• Semi-Annual: $614.29 (x2 = $1228.59/year)
• Quarterly: $313.05 (x4 = $1252.21/year)
• Monthly: $106.32 (x12 = $1275.84/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $886.00
• First Year Reserve: $236.27
• Terminal Reserve (Year -5): $45744.99

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.4%
Profit Margin: 13.6%
Lapse Assumption: 6.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 70 year old female, $100,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 70
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_70): 0.003375
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 91% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $708.80
• Expense Charge: $177.20
• Reserve Accumulation: $236.27
• Profit Margin: $59.07
• Gross Annual Premium: $1181.33

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $1181.33
• Semi-Annual: $614.29 (x2 = $1228.59/year)
• Quarterly: $313.05 (x4 = $1252.21/year)
• Monthly: $106.32 (x12 = $1275.84/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $886.00
• First Year Reserve: $236.27
• Terminal Reserve (Year -5): $45744.99

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.4%
Profit Margin: 13.6%
Lapse Assumption: 6.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Diabetes in USA for 75+ in 2022?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Diabetes
Location: USA
Year: 2022
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 27.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 23.8 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 273,161
• Percentage of All Deaths: 7.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 32.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 23.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.28:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +8.4%
• 10-Year Change: +19.6%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.4%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #11
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 7251168
• Economic Burden: $91.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 56%

RISK FACTORS:
• Obesity: 60% attributable
• Physical inactivity: 30%
• Diet: 40%
• Genetics: 25%
• Age: Progressive

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): E10-E14
Data Quality: Partial (88% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Diabetes in USA for 75+ in 2022?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Diabetes
Location: USA
Year: 2022
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 27.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 23.8 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 273,161
• Percentage of All Deaths: 7.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 32.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 23.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.28:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +8.4%
• 10-Year Change: +19.6%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.4%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #11
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 7251168
• Economic Burden: $91.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 56%

RISK FACTORS:
• Obesity: 60% attributable
• Physical inactivity: 30%
• Diet: 40%
• Genetics: 25%
• Age: Progressive

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): E10-E14
Data Quality: Partial (88% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 21 year old male, $100,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 21
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_21): 0.001070
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 78% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $179.77
• Expense Charge: $44.94
• Reserve Accumulation: $59.92
• Profit Margin: $14.98
• Gross Annual Premium: $299.62

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $299.62
• Semi-Annual: $155.80 (x2 = $311.61/year)
• Quarterly: $79.40 (x4 = $317.60/year)
• Monthly: $26.97 (x12 = $323.59/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $224.72
• First Year Reserve: $59.92
• Terminal Reserve (Year 44): $49596.69

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 12.0%
Profit Margin: 10.8%
Lapse Assumption: 3.5% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 21 year old male, $100,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 21
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_21): 0.001070
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 78% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $179.77
• Expense Charge: $44.94
• Reserve Accumulation: $59.92
• Profit Margin: $14.98
• Gross Annual Premium: $299.62

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $299.62
• Semi-Annual: $155.80 (x2 = $311.61/year)
• Quarterly: $79.40 (x4 = $317.60/year)
• Monthly: $26.97 (x12 = $323.59/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $224.72
• First Year Reserve: $59.92
• Terminal Reserve (Year 44): $49596.69

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 12.0%
Profit Margin: 10.8%
Lapse Assumption: 3.5% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 103%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.05
• Credibility Factor: 0.99
• Indicated Change: -4.1%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-0.6 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +1.2%

Recommendation: Update assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 103%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 1.05
• Credibility Factor: 0.99
• Indicated Change: -4.1%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-0.6 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +1.2%

Recommendation: Update assumptions


Instruction: Compare rural vs other area mortality rates in UK

Response:
GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: UK
Focus: Rural Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 722.6
• Rural: 846.5
• Suburban: 662.6

Rural areas show 17.1% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.

Human: Compare rural vs other area mortality rates in UK

Actuarial AI: GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: UK
Focus: Rural Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 722.6
• Rural: 846.5
• Suburban: 662.6

Rural areas show 17.1% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 20 years for someone age 35?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 35 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_35): 0.000372 (0.0372%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_35): 0.007417 (0.742%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_35): 0.992583 (99.258%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_35): 0.000372
• Hazard Rate (h_35): 0.000372
• Cumulative Hazard (H_35): 0.007445
• Median Future Lifetime: 1862.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.006305
• Upper Bound: 0.008530

Analysis based on 99,530 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 20 years for someone age 35?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 35 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_35): 0.000372 (0.0372%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_35): 0.007417 (0.742%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_35): 0.992583 (99.258%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_35): 0.000372
• Hazard Rate (h_35): 0.000372
• Cumulative Hazard (H_35): 0.007445
• Median Future Lifetime: 1862.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.006305
• Upper Bound: 0.008530

Analysis based on 99,530 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 22 year old male, $500,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $500,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 22
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_22): 0.001844
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 73% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1382.94
• Expense Charge: $345.73
• Reserve Accumulation: $460.98
• Profit Margin: $115.24
• Gross Annual Premium: $2304.90

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2304.90
• Semi-Annual: $1198.55 (x2 = $2397.10/year)
• Quarterly: $610.80 (x4 = $2443.19/year)
• Monthly: $207.44 (x12 = $2489.29/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1728.67
• First Year Reserve: $460.98
• Terminal Reserve (Year 43): $333063.98

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.2%
Profit Margin: 13.1%
Lapse Assumption: 4.9% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 22 year old male, $500,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $500,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 22
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_22): 0.001844
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 73% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1382.94
• Expense Charge: $345.73
• Reserve Accumulation: $460.98
• Profit Margin: $115.24
• Gross Annual Premium: $2304.90

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2304.90
• Semi-Annual: $1198.55 (x2 = $2397.10/year)
• Quarterly: $610.80 (x4 = $2443.19/year)
• Monthly: $207.44 (x12 = $2489.29/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1728.67
• First Year Reserve: $460.98
• Terminal Reserve (Year 43): $333063.98

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.2%
Profit Margin: 13.1%
Lapse Assumption: 4.9% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Summarize individual life mortality experience study results

Response:
MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Individual Life Insurance
Study Period: 2020-2022
Exposure: 315293 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 0.97
• Deaths Actual: 5,309
• Deaths Expected: 4,780

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.84
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.03

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.86, 1.10]

Human: Summarize individual life mortality experience study results

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Individual Life Insurance
Study Period: 2020-2022
Exposure: 315293 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 0.97
• Deaths Actual: 5,309
• Deaths Expected: 4,780

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.84
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 1.03

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.86, 1.10]


Instruction: What are the mortality characteristics for middle age population?

Response:
AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Middle Age (40-64 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 9.75 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Cancer, heart disease, accidents
• Preventable Deaths: 34%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.

Human: What are the mortality characteristics for middle age population?

Actuarial AI: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Middle Age (40-64 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 9.75 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Cancer, heart disease, accidents
• Preventable Deaths: 34%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.


Instruction: Project mortality rates for India in 2046

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2046
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 764.9 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 85.7 years
• Annual Improvement: 0.51%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 650.2
• Upper: 879.7

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for India in 2046

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2046
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 764.9 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 85.7 years
• Annual Improvement: 0.51%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 650.2
• Upper: 879.7

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Cancer in UK in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Cancer
Location: UK
Year: 2021
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 150.2 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 133.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 3,093,762
• Percentage of All Deaths: 24.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 180.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 127.7 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.20:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -11.1%
• 10-Year Change: +16.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.9%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 41924785
• Economic Burden: $69.7 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 34%

RISK FACTORS:
• Tobacco use: 30% attributable
• Diet: 20%
• Infections: 15%
• Alcohol: 10%
• Environmental: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): C00-C97
Data Quality: Complete (88% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Cancer in UK in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Cancer
Location: UK
Year: 2021
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 150.2 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 133.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 3,093,762
• Percentage of All Deaths: 24.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 180.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 127.7 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.20:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -11.1%
• 10-Year Change: +16.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.9%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #15
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 41924785
• Economic Burden: $69.7 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 34%

RISK FACTORS:
• Tobacco use: 30% attributable
• Diet: 20%
• Infections: 15%
• Alcohol: 10%
• Environmental: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): C00-C97
Data Quality: Complete (88% coverage)


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of COVID-19

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: COVID-19
Global Deaths: 6,623,583
Case Fatality Rate: 2.7%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.97%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $8.8 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of COVID-19

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: COVID-19
Global Deaths: 6,623,583
Case Fatality Rate: 2.7%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.97%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $8.8 trillion globally.


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by education in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Education
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2022

MORTALITY RATES BY EDUCATION (per 100,000):
• Less than High School: 214.9
• High School: 707.8
• Some College: 1192.6
• Bachelor's: 573.1
• Graduate Degree: 649.3

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.17
• Rate Difference: 790.3 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 36.6%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.229

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY EDUCATION:
• Less than High School: 82.7 years
• High School: 71.9 years
• Some College: 76.2 years
• Bachelor's: 82.1 years
• Graduate Degree: 73.6 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 30% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 32% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 20% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 11% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: -1.3%

Social determinants explain 73% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by education in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Education
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2022

MORTALITY RATES BY EDUCATION (per 100,000):
• Less than High School: 214.9
• High School: 707.8
• Some College: 1192.6
• Bachelor's: 573.1
• Graduate Degree: 649.3

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.17
• Rate Difference: 790.3 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 36.6%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.229

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY EDUCATION:
• Less than High School: 82.7 years
• High School: 71.9 years
• Some College: 76.2 years
• Bachelor's: 82.1 years
• Graduate Degree: 73.6 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 30% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 32% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 20% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 11% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: -1.3%

Social determinants explain 73% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 87 year old over next 30 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 87 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_87): 0.005780 (0.5780%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_87): 0.159622 (15.962%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_87): 0.840378 (84.038%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_87): 0.005797
• Hazard Rate (h_87): 0.005797
• Cumulative Hazard (H_87): 0.173903
• Median Future Lifetime: 119.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 5.8x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 478%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.135679
• Upper Bound: 0.183565

Analysis based on 117,043 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 87 year old over next 30 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 87 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: hypertension

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_87): 0.005780 (0.5780%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_87): 0.159622 (15.962%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_87): 0.840378 (84.038%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_87): 0.005797
• Hazard Rate (h_87): 0.005797
• Cumulative Hazard (H_87): 0.173903
• Median Future Lifetime: 119.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 5.8x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 478%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.135679
• Upper Bound: 0.183565

Analysis based on 117,043 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of MERS

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: MERS
Global Deaths: 826
Case Fatality Rate: 2.2%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.86%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $4.5 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of MERS

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: MERS
Global Deaths: 826
Case Fatality Rate: 2.2%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.86%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $4.5 trillion globally.


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of SARS

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: SARS
Global Deaths: 744
Case Fatality Rate: 6.2%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.57%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $2.9 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of SARS

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: SARS
Global Deaths: 744
Case Fatality Rate: 6.2%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.57%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $2.9 trillion globally.


Instruction: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 27 year old male, $1,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 27
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_27): 0.002178
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 96% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $3267.50
• Expense Charge: $816.88
• Reserve Accumulation: $1089.17
• Profit Margin: $272.29
• Gross Annual Premium: $5445.84

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $5445.84
• Semi-Annual: $2831.83 (x2 = $5663.67/year)
• Quarterly: $1443.15 (x4 = $5772.59/year)
• Monthly: $490.13 (x12 = $5881.50/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $4084.38
• First Year Reserve: $1089.17
• Terminal Reserve (Year 38): $639946.41

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.1%
Profit Margin: 8.5%
Lapse Assumption: 7.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Variable Universal Life life insurance premium for 27 year old male, $1,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Variable Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 27
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_27): 0.002178
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 96% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $3267.50
• Expense Charge: $816.88
• Reserve Accumulation: $1089.17
• Profit Margin: $272.29
• Gross Annual Premium: $5445.84

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $5445.84
• Semi-Annual: $2831.83 (x2 = $5663.67/year)
• Quarterly: $1443.15 (x4 = $5772.59/year)
• Monthly: $490.13 (x12 = $5881.50/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $4084.38
• First Year Reserve: $1089.17
• Terminal Reserve (Year 38): $639946.41

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.1%
Profit Margin: 8.5%
Lapse Assumption: 7.1% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Show survival curve for France male in 2020

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: France Male
Reference Year: 2020
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         79.8
    1          99,997           15         0.00015         75.8
    5          99,982           33         0.00033         75.9
   10          99,949           72         0.00072         68.3
   20          99,877          124         0.00124         62.4
   30          99,753          212         0.00213         47.4
   40          99,541          462         0.00464         42.8
   50          99,079          626         0.00632         31.4
   60          98,453          965         0.00980         24.9
   70          97,488        1,199         0.01230          6.9
   80          96,289        1,962         0.02038          0.0
   90          94,327        2,483         0.02632          4.1
  100          91,844        4,526         0.04928          2.4
  110          87,318       87,318         1.00000          3.2

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 81.9 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.5%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.3%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: High
• Rectangularization Index: 0.83

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 438,806 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for France male in 2020

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: France Male
Reference Year: 2020
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         79.8
    1          99,997           15         0.00015         75.8
    5          99,982           33         0.00033         75.9
   10          99,949           72         0.00072         68.3
   20          99,877          124         0.00124         62.4
   30          99,753          212         0.00213         47.4
   40          99,541          462         0.00464         42.8
   50          99,079          626         0.00632         31.4
   60          98,453          965         0.00980         24.9
   70          97,488        1,199         0.01230          6.9
   80          96,289        1,962         0.02038          0.0
   90          94,327        2,483         0.02632          4.1
  100          91,844        4,526         0.04928          2.4
  110          87,318       87,318         1.00000          3.2

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 81.9 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.5%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.3%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: High
• Rectangularization Index: 0.83

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 438,806 death certificates.


Instruction: Calculate the 30-year death probability for a 77 year old with cancer history, diabetes

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 77 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_77): 0.002252 (0.2252%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_77): 0.065391 (6.539%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_77): 0.934609 (93.461%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_77): 0.002254
• Hazard Rate (h_77): 0.002254
• Cumulative Hazard (H_77): 0.067627
• Median Future Lifetime: 307.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.3x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 125%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.055583
• Upper Bound: 0.075200

Analysis based on 52,725 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 30-year death probability for a 77 year old with cancer history, diabetes

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 77 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: cancer history, diabetes

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_77): 0.002252 (0.2252%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_77): 0.065391 (6.539%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_77): 0.934609 (93.461%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_77): 0.002254
• Hazard Rate (h_77): 0.002254
• Cumulative Hazard (H_77): 0.067627
• Median Future Lifetime: 307.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.3x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 125%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.055583
• Upper Bound: 0.075200

Analysis based on 52,725 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Compare life expectancy between China, Australia and Mexico

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Life Expectancy
Countries: China, Australia, Mexico
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• China: 80.1 years
• Australia: 78.8 years
• Mexico: 70.1 years

RANKINGS:
1. China: 80.1
2. Australia: 78.8
3. Mexico: 70.1

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 10.1
• Mean: 76.3
• Median: 78.8
• Standard Deviation: 4.5
• Coefficient of Variation: 5.9%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 0.87x difference
• Above Average: 2/3
• Global Ranking: China: #22, Australia: #20, Mexico: #155

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 39% of variation
• Economic Development: 34% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 24% of variation
• Demographics: 11% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 15% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.3% annually

Human: Compare life expectancy between China, Australia and Mexico

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Life Expectancy
Countries: China, Australia, Mexico
Reference Year: 2022

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• China: 80.1 years
• Australia: 78.8 years
• Mexico: 70.1 years

RANKINGS:
1. China: 80.1
2. Australia: 78.8
3. Mexico: 70.1

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 10.1
• Mean: 76.3
• Median: 78.8
• Standard Deviation: 4.5
• Coefficient of Variation: 5.9%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 0.87x difference
• Above Average: 2/3
• Global Ranking: China: #22, Australia: #20, Mexico: #155

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 39% of variation
• Economic Development: 34% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 24% of variation
• Demographics: 11% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 15% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.3% annually


Instruction: Compare maternal mortality between Japan, Mexico and China

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Maternal Mortality
Countries: Japan, Mexico, China
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Japan: 8.9 per 100,000 live births
• Mexico: 18.2 per 100,000 live births
• China: 21.2 per 100,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. Japan: 8.9
2. Mexico: 18.2
3. China: 21.2

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 12.3
• Mean: 16.1
• Median: 18.2
• Standard Deviation: 5.2
• Coefficient of Variation: 32.4%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.38x difference
• Above Average: 2/3
• Global Ranking: Japan: #65, Mexico: #194, China: #54

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 29% of variation
• Economic Development: 33% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 13% of variation
• Demographics: 14% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 7% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 0.7% annually

Human: Compare maternal mortality between Japan, Mexico and China

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Maternal Mortality
Countries: Japan, Mexico, China
Reference Year: 2021

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Japan: 8.9 per 100,000 live births
• Mexico: 18.2 per 100,000 live births
• China: 21.2 per 100,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. Japan: 8.9
2. Mexico: 18.2
3. China: 21.2

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 12.3
• Mean: 16.1
• Median: 18.2
• Standard Deviation: 5.2
• Coefficient of Variation: 32.4%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 2.38x difference
• Above Average: 2/3
• Global Ranking: Japan: #65, Mexico: #194, China: #54

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 29% of variation
• Economic Development: 33% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 13% of variation
• Demographics: 14% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 7% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 0.7% annually


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Hypertension in Germany in 2020?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Hypertension
Location: Germany
Year: 2020
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 9.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 8.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 299,403
• Percentage of All Deaths: 20.1%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 10.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 7.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.31:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +4.5%
• 10-Year Change: -12.8%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.2%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #10
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 5008653
• Economic Burden: $25.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 23%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): I10-I15
Data Quality: Near-Complete (98% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Hypertension in Germany in 2020?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Hypertension
Location: Germany
Year: 2020
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 9.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 8.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 299,403
• Percentage of All Deaths: 20.1%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 10.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 7.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.31:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +4.5%
• 10-Year Change: -12.8%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.2%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #10
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 5008653
• Economic Burden: $25.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 23%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): I10-I15
Data Quality: Near-Complete (98% coverage)


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 55 year old female in Japan as of 2015?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Japan
• Age: 55 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2015

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 55 (e_55): 33.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 88.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 22.9 years
• Modal Age at Death: 83.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_55): 86.3%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_55): 74.5%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_55): 55.6%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_55): 0.02938
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_55): 0.02896
• Hazard Rate: 0.02982

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 55: 29.6 years
• Regional Rank: Top 24 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 172,073 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.6%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 55 year old female in Japan as of 2015?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Japan
• Age: 55 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2015

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 55 (e_55): 33.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 88.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 22.9 years
• Modal Age at Death: 83.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_55): 86.3%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_55): 74.5%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_55): 55.6%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_55): 0.02938
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_55): 0.02896
• Hazard Rate: 0.02982

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 55: 29.6 years
• Regional Rank: Top 24 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 172,073 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.6%.


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Healthcare workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Healthcare
Fatal Injury Rate: 54.0 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 3,955

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 21%
• Struck by object: 16%
• Electrocution: 8%
• Caught-in/between: 19%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $368,159

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Healthcare workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Healthcare
Fatal Injury Rate: 54.0 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 3,955

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 21%
• Struck by object: 16%
• Electrocution: 8%
• Caught-in/between: 19%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $368,159


Instruction: Show survival curve for UK male in 2022

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: UK Male
Reference Year: 2022
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         75.2
    1          99,997           13         0.00013         74.5
    5          99,984           34         0.00034         71.4
   10          99,950           88         0.00088         70.6
   20          99,862          140         0.00140         61.6
   30          99,722          253         0.00254         48.2
   40          99,469          494         0.00497         38.5
   50          98,975          658         0.00665         31.0
   60          98,317          771         0.00784         17.1
   70          97,546        1,505         0.01543          6.7
   80          96,041        2,087         0.02173          1.8
   90          93,954        2,381         0.02534          4.5
  100          91,573        3,154         0.03444          3.4
  110          88,419       88,419         1.00000          1.7

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.9 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.3%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.0%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.72

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 424,085 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for UK male in 2022

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: UK Male
Reference Year: 2022
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         75.2
    1          99,997           13         0.00013         74.5
    5          99,984           34         0.00034         71.4
   10          99,950           88         0.00088         70.6
   20          99,862          140         0.00140         61.6
   30          99,722          253         0.00254         48.2
   40          99,469          494         0.00497         38.5
   50          98,975          658         0.00665         31.0
   60          98,317          771         0.00784         17.1
   70          97,546        1,505         0.01543          6.7
   80          96,041        2,087         0.02173          1.8
   90          93,954        2,381         0.02534          4.5
  100          91,573        3,154         0.03444          3.4
  110          88,419       88,419         1.00000          1.7

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.9 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.3%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.0%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.72

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 424,085 death certificates.


Instruction: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in USA

Response:
GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: USA
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 765.1
• Rural: 939.7
• Suburban: 694.0

Rural areas show 22.8% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.

Human: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in USA

Actuarial AI: GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: USA
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 765.1
• Rural: 939.7
• Suburban: 694.0

Rural areas show 22.8% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 45 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 35
• Current Age: 45
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1160.47
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $44818.55
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $25701.51

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $20426.69
• Per $1,000 Face: $204.27

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_45:10⌉ = 0.1611
• ä_45:10⌉ = 8.6252
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $20426.69

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10266.51
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4057.19
• Interest Earned: $1693.42
• ₁₀V = $20426.69

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $19405.35
• Tax Reserve: $18792.55
• GAAP Reserve: $21448.02

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 45 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 35
• Current Age: 45
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1160.47
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $44818.55
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $25701.51

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $20426.69
• Per $1,000 Face: $204.27

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_45:10⌉ = 0.1611
• ä_45:10⌉ = 8.6252
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $20426.69

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $10266.51
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4057.19
• Interest Earned: $1693.42
• ₁₀V = $20426.69

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $19405.35
• Tax Reserve: $18792.55
• GAAP Reserve: $21448.02


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in India for Q3 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: India
Period: Q3 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 72,892
• Observed Deaths: 83,363
• Excess Deaths: 10,471
• Excess Mortality Rate: 14.4%
• P-score: 14.4%
• Z-score: 3.12 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.1% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 1.3% (1,047 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 15.7% (2,617 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 26.6% (2,617 deaths)
• 75+ years: 31.7% (4,188 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 7,673 (64%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,183 (27%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 2,043 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [8,900, 12,041]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.95

Years of Life Lost: 152589
Economic Impact: $2.8 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 87792

Human: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in India for Q3 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: India
Period: Q3 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 72,892
• Observed Deaths: 83,363
• Excess Deaths: 10,471
• Excess Mortality Rate: 14.4%
• P-score: 14.4%
• Z-score: 3.12 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.1% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 1.3% (1,047 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 15.7% (2,617 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 26.6% (2,617 deaths)
• 75+ years: 31.7% (4,188 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 7,673 (64%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,183 (27%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 2,043 (13%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [8,900, 12,041]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.95

Years of Life Lost: 152589
Economic Impact: $2.8 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 87792


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by occupation in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Occupation
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2023

MORTALITY RATES BY OCCUPATION (per 100,000):
• Healthcare: 401.2
• Construction: 1120.2
• Office: 292.9
• Transportation: 616.3
• Service: 309.6

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.83
• Rate Difference: 544.8 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 22.6%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.139

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY OCCUPATION:
• Healthcare: 83.2 years
• Construction: 81.0 years
• Office: 73.3 years
• Transportation: 79.9 years
• Service: 74.8 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 38% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 15% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 23% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 10% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: -0.7%

Social determinants explain 62% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by occupation in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Occupation
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2023

MORTALITY RATES BY OCCUPATION (per 100,000):
• Healthcare: 401.2
• Construction: 1120.2
• Office: 292.9
• Transportation: 616.3
• Service: 309.6

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.83
• Rate Difference: 544.8 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 22.6%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.139

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY OCCUPATION:
• Healthcare: 83.2 years
• Construction: 81.0 years
• Office: 73.3 years
• Transportation: 79.9 years
• Service: 74.8 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 38% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 15% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 23% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 10% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: -0.7%

Social determinants explain 62% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 25 year old male, $250,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $250,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 25
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_25): 0.001223
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 82% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $513.54
• Expense Charge: $128.38
• Reserve Accumulation: $171.18
• Profit Margin: $42.79
• Gross Annual Premium: $855.90

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $855.90
• Semi-Annual: $445.07 (x2 = $890.13/year)
• Quarterly: $226.81 (x4 = $907.25/year)
• Monthly: $77.03 (x12 = $924.37/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $641.92
• First Year Reserve: $171.18
• Terminal Reserve (Year 40): $149348.59

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.1%
Profit Margin: 10.2%
Lapse Assumption: 6.7% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 25 year old male, $250,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $250,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 25
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_25): 0.001223
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 82% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $513.54
• Expense Charge: $128.38
• Reserve Accumulation: $171.18
• Profit Margin: $42.79
• Gross Annual Premium: $855.90

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $855.90
• Semi-Annual: $445.07 (x2 = $890.13/year)
• Quarterly: $226.81 (x4 = $907.25/year)
• Monthly: $77.03 (x12 = $924.37/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $641.92
• First Year Reserve: $171.18
• Terminal Reserve (Year 40): $149348.59

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.1%
Profit Margin: 10.2%
Lapse Assumption: 6.7% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of Spanish Flu

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: Spanish Flu
Global Deaths: 54,640,498
Case Fatality Rate: 7.7%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.79%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $7.0 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of Spanish Flu

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: Spanish Flu
Global Deaths: 54,640,498
Case Fatality Rate: 7.7%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.79%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $7.0 trillion globally.


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Construction workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Construction
Fatal Injury Rate: 139.6 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 2,957

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 34%
• Struck by object: 19%
• Electrocution: 10%
• Caught-in/between: 14%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $407,132

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Construction workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Construction
Fatal Injury Rate: 139.6 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 2,957

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 34%
• Struck by object: 19%
• Electrocution: 10%
• Caught-in/between: 14%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $407,132


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 39 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 29
• Current Age: 39
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $529.85
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $47918.81
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $28433.47

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $37193.67
• Per $1,000 Face: $371.94

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_39:10⌉ = 0.1544
• ä_39:10⌉ = 9.1495
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $37193.67

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $9437.25
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3341.60
• Interest Earned: $1119.44
• ₁₀V = $37193.67

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $35333.98
• Tax Reserve: $34218.17
• GAAP Reserve: $39053.35

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 39 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 29
• Current Age: 39
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $529.85
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $47918.81
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $28433.47

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $37193.67
• Per $1,000 Face: $371.94

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_39:10⌉ = 0.1544
• ä_39:10⌉ = 9.1495
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $37193.67

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $9437.25
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3341.60
• Interest Earned: $1119.44
• ₁₀V = $37193.67

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $35333.98
• Tax Reserve: $34218.17
• GAAP Reserve: $39053.35


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by occupation in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Occupation
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY OCCUPATION (per 100,000):
• Healthcare: 661.6
• Construction: 317.4
• Office: 665.2
• Transportation: 208.9
• Service: 674.2

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.52
• Rate Difference: 661.9 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 29.3%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.270

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY OCCUPATION:
• Healthcare: 76.4 years
• Construction: 80.6 years
• Office: 73.3 years
• Transportation: 74.0 years
• Service: 75.9 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 36% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 27% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 14% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 14% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -0.7%

Social determinants explain 69% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by occupation in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Occupation
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2021

MORTALITY RATES BY OCCUPATION (per 100,000):
• Healthcare: 661.6
• Construction: 317.4
• Office: 665.2
• Transportation: 208.9
• Service: 674.2

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.52
• Rate Difference: 661.9 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 29.3%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.270

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY OCCUPATION:
• Healthcare: 76.4 years
• Construction: 80.6 years
• Office: 73.3 years
• Transportation: 74.0 years
• Service: 75.9 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 36% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 27% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 14% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 14% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -0.7%

Social determinants explain 69% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of SARS

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: SARS
Global Deaths: 857
Case Fatality Rate: 2.3%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.28%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $3.1 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of SARS

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: SARS
Global Deaths: 857
Case Fatality Rate: 2.3%
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.28%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $3.1 trillion globally.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 29?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 29 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_29): 0.000229 (0.0229%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_29): 0.001144 (0.114%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_29): 0.998856 (99.886%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_29): 0.000229
• Hazard Rate (h_29): 0.000229
• Cumulative Hazard (H_29): 0.001145
• Median Future Lifetime: 3026.4 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.2x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000973
• Upper Bound: 0.001316

Analysis based on 75,264 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 29?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 29 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_29): 0.000229 (0.0229%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_29): 0.001144 (0.114%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_29): 0.998856 (99.886%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_29): 0.000229
• Hazard Rate (h_29): 0.000229
• Cumulative Hazard (H_29): 0.001145
• Median Future Lifetime: 3026.4 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.2x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000973
• Upper Bound: 0.001316

Analysis based on 75,264 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Analyze mortality trends in Japan from 2009-2021

Response:
MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: Japan
Analysis Period: 2009-2021

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: +1.8%
• Total Change: -6.2%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 2.9 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +74 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 31% of improvement
• Public health measures: 18%
• Lifestyle changes: -20%
• Environmental factors: -14%

Human: Analyze mortality trends in Japan from 2009-2021

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: Japan
Analysis Period: 2009-2021

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: +1.8%
• Total Change: -6.2%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 2.9 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +74 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 31% of improvement
• Public health measures: 18%
• Lifestyle changes: -20%
• Environmental factors: -14%


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by occupation in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Occupation
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2022

MORTALITY RATES BY OCCUPATION (per 100,000):
• Healthcare: 526.5
• Construction: 212.9
• Office: 267.7
• Transportation: 1059.8
• Service: 621.0

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.63
• Rate Difference: 615.8 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 32.0%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.170

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY OCCUPATION:
• Healthcare: 79.5 years
• Construction: 70.5 years
• Office: 71.8 years
• Transportation: 84.0 years
• Service: 82.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 26% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 23% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 14% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 16% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 9% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: -2.0%

Social determinants explain 62% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by occupation in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Occupation
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2022

MORTALITY RATES BY OCCUPATION (per 100,000):
• Healthcare: 526.5
• Construction: 212.9
• Office: 267.7
• Transportation: 1059.8
• Service: 621.0

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 2.63
• Rate Difference: 615.8 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 32.0%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.170

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY OCCUPATION:
• Healthcare: 79.5 years
• Construction: 70.5 years
• Office: 71.8 years
• Transportation: 84.0 years
• Service: 82.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 26% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 23% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 14% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 16% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 9% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are narrowing
• Annual change in disparity: -2.0%

Social determinants explain 62% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 31 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 31
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_31): 0.001840
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 55% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $3090.73
• Expense Charge: $772.68
• Reserve Accumulation: $1030.24
• Profit Margin: $257.56
• Gross Annual Premium: $5151.21

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $5151.21
• Semi-Annual: $2678.63 (x2 = $5357.26/year)
• Quarterly: $1365.07 (x4 = $5460.29/year)
• Monthly: $463.61 (x12 = $5563.31/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3863.41
• First Year Reserve: $1030.24
• Terminal Reserve (Year 34): $463469.74

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.8%
Profit Margin: 14.2%
Lapse Assumption: 4.4% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 31 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 31
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_31): 0.001840
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 55% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $3090.73
• Expense Charge: $772.68
• Reserve Accumulation: $1030.24
• Profit Margin: $257.56
• Gross Annual Premium: $5151.21

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $5151.21
• Semi-Annual: $2678.63 (x2 = $5357.26/year)
• Quarterly: $1365.07 (x4 = $5460.29/year)
• Monthly: $463.61 (x12 = $5563.31/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3863.41
• First Year Reserve: $1030.24
• Terminal Reserve (Year 34): $463469.74

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.8%
Profit Margin: 14.2%
Lapse Assumption: 4.4% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 7 year old female in Japan as of 2016?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Japan
• Age: 7 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2016

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 7 (e_7): 83.4 years
• Expected Age at Death: 90.4 years
• Median Survival Time: 57.8 years
• Modal Age at Death: 85.4 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_7): 94.2%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_7): 88.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_7): 78.9%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_7): 0.01184
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_7): 0.01177
• Hazard Rate: 0.01191

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 7: 77.6 years
• Regional Rank: Top 42 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 269,361 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.5%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 7 year old female in Japan as of 2016?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Japan
• Age: 7 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2016

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 7 (e_7): 83.4 years
• Expected Age at Death: 90.4 years
• Median Survival Time: 57.8 years
• Modal Age at Death: 85.4 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_7): 94.2%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_7): 88.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_7): 78.9%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_7): 0.01184
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_7): 0.01177
• Hazard Rate: 0.01191

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 7: 77.6 years
• Regional Rank: Top 42 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 269,361 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.5%.


Instruction: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in Australia

Response:
GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: Australia
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 880.8
• Rural: 1076.8
• Suburban: 854.4

Rural areas show 22.3% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.

Human: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in Australia

Actuarial AI: GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: Australia
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 880.8
• Rural: 1076.8
• Suburban: 854.4

Rural areas show 22.3% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 86 year old both in China as of 2019?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: China
• Age: 86 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2019

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 86 (e_86): 0.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 86.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 0.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 81.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_86): 0.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_86): 0.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_86): 0.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_86): 1.00000
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_86): 0.63212
• Hazard Rate: 4.60517

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 86: -9.1 years
• Regional Rank: Top 32 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 311,880 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.3%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 86 year old both in China as of 2019?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: China
• Age: 86 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2019

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 86 (e_86): 0.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 86.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 0.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 81.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_86): 0.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_86): 0.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_86): 0.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_86): 1.00000
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_86): 0.63212
• Hazard Rate: 4.60517

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 86: -9.1 years
• Regional Rank: Top 32 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 311,880 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.3%.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: RP-2014
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 97%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.97
• Credibility Factor: 0.95
• Indicated Change: +7.1%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-2.2 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +0.9%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: RP-2014
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 97%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.97
• Credibility Factor: 0.95
• Indicated Change: +7.1%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-2.2 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +0.9%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions


Instruction: What are the mortality characteristics for middle age population?

Response:
AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Middle Age (40-64 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 14.89 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Cancer, heart disease, accidents
• Preventable Deaths: 38%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.

Human: What are the mortality characteristics for middle age population?

Actuarial AI: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Middle Age (40-64 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 14.89 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Cancer, heart disease, accidents
• Preventable Deaths: 38%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 93 year old male in India as of 2021?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: India
• Age: 93 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2021

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 93 (e_93): -2.7 years
• Expected Age at Death: 90.3 years
• Median Survival Time: -1.8 years
• Modal Age at Death: 85.3 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_93): 100.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_93): 100.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_93): 100.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_93): -0.60525
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_93): -0.83170
• Hazard Rate: -0.47328

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 93: -23.3 years
• Regional Rank: Top 35 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 439,304 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.9%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 93 year old male in India as of 2021?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: India
• Age: 93 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2021

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 93 (e_93): -2.7 years
• Expected Age at Death: 90.3 years
• Median Survival Time: -1.8 years
• Modal Age at Death: 85.3 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_93): 100.0%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_93): 100.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_93): 100.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_93): -0.60525
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_93): -0.83170
• Hazard Rate: -0.47328

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 93: -23.3 years
• Regional Rank: Top 35 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 439,304 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.9%.


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 66 year old over next 20 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 66 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: hypertension, heart disease, obesity

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_66): 0.007128 (0.7128%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_66): 0.133314 (13.331%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_66): 0.866686 (86.669%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_66): 0.007154
• Hazard Rate (h_66): 0.007154
• Cumulative Hazard (H_66): 0.143078
• Median Future Lifetime: 96.9 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 7.1x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 613%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.113316
• Upper Bound: 0.153311

Analysis based on 88,132 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 66 year old over next 20 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 66 years
• Assessment Period: 20 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: hypertension, heart disease, obesity

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_66): 0.007128 (0.7128%)
• 20-Year Death Probability (₍20₎q_66): 0.133314 (13.331%)
• Survival Probability (₍20₎p_66): 0.866686 (86.669%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_66): 0.007154
• Hazard Rate (h_66): 0.007154
• Cumulative Hazard (H_66): 0.143078
• Median Future Lifetime: 96.9 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 7.1x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 613%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.113316
• Upper Bound: 0.153311

Analysis based on 88,132 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What are the mortality characteristics for elderly population?

Response:
AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Elderly (65+ years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 15.68 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Heart disease, cancer, Alzheimer's
• Preventable Deaths: 50%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.

Human: What are the mortality characteristics for elderly population?

Actuarial AI: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Elderly (65+ years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 15.68 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Heart disease, cancer, Alzheimer's
• Preventable Deaths: 50%

Life table analysis shows stable risk profile.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 33 year old male in Germany as of 2023?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Germany
• Age: 33 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2023

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 33 (e_33): 45.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 78.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 31.8 years
• Modal Age at Death: 73.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_33): 89.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_33): 80.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_33): 65.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_33): 0.02133
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_33): 0.02110
• Hazard Rate: 0.02156

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 33: 48.2 years
• Regional Rank: Top 22 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 175,855 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.7%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 33 year old male in Germany as of 2023?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Germany
• Age: 33 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2023

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 33 (e_33): 45.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 78.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 31.8 years
• Modal Age at Death: 73.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_33): 89.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_33): 80.8%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_33): 65.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_33): 0.02133
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_33): 0.02110
• Hazard Rate: 0.02156

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 33: 48.2 years
• Regional Rank: Top 22 globally
• Historical Trend: Stable

Based on 175,855 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.7%.


Instruction: Show survival curve for Canada male in 2019

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Canada Male
Reference Year: 2019
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         75.1
    1          99,997           15         0.00015         77.3
    5          99,982           30         0.00030         77.0
   10          99,952           89         0.00089         69.7
   20          99,863          178         0.00178         63.0
   30          99,685          279         0.00280         48.0
   40          99,406          393         0.00395         35.6
   50          99,013          691         0.00698         30.5
   60          98,322          951         0.00967         18.3
   70          97,371        1,642         0.01686         14.5
   80          95,729        1,786         0.01866          1.0
   90          93,943        2,853         0.03037          2.7
  100          91,090        4,092         0.04492          3.7
  110          86,998       86,998         1.00000          3.3

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 78.7 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.3%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 95.7%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.74

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 160,519 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for Canada male in 2019

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Canada Male
Reference Year: 2019
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         75.1
    1          99,997           15         0.00015         77.3
    5          99,982           30         0.00030         77.0
   10          99,952           89         0.00089         69.7
   20          99,863          178         0.00178         63.0
   30          99,685          279         0.00280         48.0
   40          99,406          393         0.00395         35.6
   50          99,013          691         0.00698         30.5
   60          98,322          951         0.00967         18.3
   70          97,371        1,642         0.01686         14.5
   80          95,729        1,786         0.01866          1.0
   90          93,943        2,853         0.03037          2.7
  100          91,090        4,092         0.04492          3.7
  110          86,998       86,998         1.00000          3.3

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 78.7 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.3%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 95.7%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.74

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 160,519 death certificates.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 9 year old both in Italy as of 2020?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Italy
• Age: 9 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 9 (e_9): 78.2 years
• Expected Age at Death: 87.2 years
• Median Survival Time: 54.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 82.2 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_9): 93.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_9): 88.1%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_9): 77.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_9): 0.01263
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_9): 0.01255
• Hazard Rate: 0.01271

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 9: 74.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 18 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 154,598 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.8%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 9 year old both in Italy as of 2020?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Italy
• Age: 9 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2020

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 9 (e_9): 78.2 years
• Expected Age at Death: 87.2 years
• Median Survival Time: 54.2 years
• Modal Age at Death: 82.2 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_9): 93.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_9): 88.1%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_9): 77.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_9): 0.01263
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_9): 0.01255
• Hazard Rate: 0.01271

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 9: 74.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 18 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 154,598 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.8%.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Alzheimer's in Canada in 2019?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Alzheimer's
Location: Canada
Year: 2019
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 31.9 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 29.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 720,032
• Percentage of All Deaths: 13.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 38.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 27.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.21:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +5.6%
• 10-Year Change: +23.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.2%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #8
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 18640647
• Economic Burden: $88.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 48%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age: Primary factor
• Genetics (APOE4): 25%
• Education level: -15%
• Cardiovascular health: 20%
• Head trauma: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): G30
Data Quality: Complete (88% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Alzheimer's in Canada in 2019?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Alzheimer's
Location: Canada
Year: 2019
Age Group: All ages

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 31.9 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 29.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 720,032
• Percentage of All Deaths: 13.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 38.2 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 27.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.21:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +5.6%
• 10-Year Change: +23.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: +2.2%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #8
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 18640647
• Economic Burden: $88.5 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 48%

RISK FACTORS:
• Age: Primary factor
• Genetics (APOE4): 25%
• Education level: -15%
• Cardiovascular health: 20%
• Head trauma: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): G30
Data Quality: Complete (88% coverage)


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: RP-2014
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Experience Adjustment: 112%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.98
• Credibility Factor: 0.91
• Indicated Change: +6.2%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-1.4 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -2.0%

Recommendation: Update assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: RP-2014
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Experience Adjustment: 112%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.98
• Credibility Factor: 0.91
• Indicated Change: +6.2%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-1.4 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -2.0%

Recommendation: Update assumptions


Instruction: Compare cancer mortality between Brazil and Mexico

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: Brazil, Mexico
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Brazil: 166.8 per 100,000 population
• Mexico: 91.5 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Mexico: 91.5
2. Brazil: 166.8

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 75.2
• Mean: 129.1
• Median: 129.1
• Standard Deviation: 37.6
• Coefficient of Variation: 29.1%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.82x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Brazil: #95, Mexico: #91

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 31% of variation
• Economic Development: 18% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 15% of variation
• Demographics: 18% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 9% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.8% annually

Human: Compare cancer mortality between Brazil and Mexico

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Cancer Mortality
Countries: Brazil, Mexico
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Brazil: 166.8 per 100,000 population
• Mexico: 91.5 per 100,000 population

RANKINGS:
1. Mexico: 91.5
2. Brazil: 166.8

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 75.2
• Mean: 129.1
• Median: 129.1
• Standard Deviation: 37.6
• Coefficient of Variation: 29.1%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 1.82x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Brazil: #95, Mexico: #91

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 31% of variation
• Economic Development: 18% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 15% of variation
• Demographics: 18% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 9% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.8% annually