Instruction: Analyze mortality patterns for 1970 birth cohort

Response:
BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1970
Current Age: 54 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,480,872

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 65.4 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 80.8 years
• Survival to Current Age: 67.0%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• High smoking prevalence
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 23.4 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 33.9 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 43%

Cohort effects explain 11% of mortality variation.

Human: Analyze mortality patterns for 1970 birth cohort

Actuarial AI: BIRTH COHORT MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Birth Cohort: 1970
Current Age: 54 years
Cohort Size at Birth: 2,480,872

COHORT CHARACTERISTICS:
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 65.4 years
• Current Life Expectancy: 80.8 years
• Survival to Current Age: 67.0%

HISTORICAL EXPOSURES:
• High smoking prevalence
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
• COVID-19 pandemic

MORTALITY PATTERN:
• Peak Infant Mortality: 23.4 per 1,000
• Current Mortality Rate: 33.9 per 1,000
• Improvement Since Birth: 43%

Cohort effects explain 11% of mortality variation.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 22?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 22 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_22): 0.000373 (0.0373%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_22): 0.000373 (0.037%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_22): 0.999627 (99.963%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_22): 0.000373
• Hazard Rate (h_22): 0.000373
• Cumulative Hazard (H_22): 0.000373
• Median Future Lifetime: 1857.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000317
• Upper Bound: 0.000429

Analysis based on 117,646 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 1 year for someone age 22?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 22 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_22): 0.000373 (0.0373%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_22): 0.000373 (0.037%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_22): 0.999627 (99.963%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_22): 0.000373
• Hazard Rate (h_22): 0.000373
• Cumulative Hazard (H_22): 0.000373
• Median Future Lifetime: 1857.5 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.4x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.000317
• Upper Bound: 0.000429

Analysis based on 117,646 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Show survival curve for UK male in 2020

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: UK Male
Reference Year: 2020
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         78.9
    1          99,997           15         0.00015         78.0
    5          99,982           28         0.00028         72.7
   10          99,954           64         0.00064         73.1
   20          99,890          178         0.00178         62.6
   30          99,712          307         0.00308         53.4
   40          99,405          473         0.00476         41.0
   50          98,932          685         0.00692         28.8
   60          98,247        1,023         0.01041         24.7
   70          97,224        1,549         0.01593          5.3
   80          95,675        2,030         0.02122          0.0
   90          93,645        3,165         0.03380          3.3
  100          90,480        3,383         0.03739          1.2
  110          87,097       87,097         1.00000          2.7

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.4 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.2%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 95.7%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.88

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 210,915 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for UK male in 2020

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: UK Male
Reference Year: 2020
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         78.9
    1          99,997           15         0.00015         78.0
    5          99,982           28         0.00028         72.7
   10          99,954           64         0.00064         73.1
   20          99,890          178         0.00178         62.6
   30          99,712          307         0.00308         53.4
   40          99,405          473         0.00476         41.0
   50          98,932          685         0.00692         28.8
   60          98,247        1,023         0.01041         24.7
   70          97,224        1,549         0.01593          5.3
   80          95,675        2,030         0.02122          0.0
   90          93,645        3,165         0.03380          3.3
  100          90,480        3,383         0.03739          1.2
  110          87,097       87,097         1.00000          2.7

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 77.4 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.2%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 95.7%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.88

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 210,915 death certificates.


Instruction: Show survival curve for Russia population in 2015

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Russia Combined
Reference Year: 2015
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         78.9
    1          99,997           13         0.00013         79.3
    5          99,984           29         0.00029         74.2
   10          99,955           77         0.00077         72.5
   20          99,878          109         0.00109         55.5
   30          99,769          212         0.00212         47.3
   40          99,557          403         0.00405         39.7
   50          99,154          637         0.00642         30.3
   60          98,517          858         0.00871         20.4
   70          97,659        1,361         0.01394         14.9
   80          96,298        1,638         0.01701          0.0
   90          94,660        2,667         0.02817          3.0
  100          91,993        3,324         0.03613          3.5
  110          88,669       88,669         1.00000          2.7

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 80.7 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.5%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.3%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.76

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 124,867 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for Russia population in 2015

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Russia Combined
Reference Year: 2015
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            3         0.00003         78.9
    1          99,997           13         0.00013         79.3
    5          99,984           29         0.00029         74.2
   10          99,955           77         0.00077         72.5
   20          99,878          109         0.00109         55.5
   30          99,769          212         0.00212         47.3
   40          99,557          403         0.00405         39.7
   50          99,154          637         0.00642         30.3
   60          98,517          858         0.00871         20.4
   70          97,659        1,361         0.01394         14.9
   80          96,298        1,638         0.01701          0.0
   90          94,660        2,667         0.02817          3.0
  100          91,993        3,324         0.03613          3.5
  110          88,669       88,669         1.00000          2.7

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 80.7 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.5%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 96.3%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.76

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 124,867 death certificates.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Septicemia in Canada for Under 25 in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Septicemia
Location: Canada
Year: 2021
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 9.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 9.0 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 329,169
• Percentage of All Deaths: 7.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 11.4 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 8.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.41:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +6.5%
• 10-Year Change: -16.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.6%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #1
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 4342732
• Economic Burden: $76.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 24%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A40-A41
Data Quality: Near-Complete (89% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Septicemia in Canada for Under 25 in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Septicemia
Location: Canada
Year: 2021
Age Group: Under 25

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 9.5 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 9.0 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 329,169
• Percentage of All Deaths: 7.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 11.4 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 8.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.41:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +6.5%
• 10-Year Change: -16.9%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.6%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #1
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 4342732
• Economic Burden: $76.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 24%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A40-A41
Data Quality: Near-Complete (89% coverage)


Instruction: Show survival curve for Russia female in 2019

Response:
SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Russia Female
Reference Year: 2019
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            2         0.00002         77.3
    1          99,998           10         0.00010         79.8
    5          99,988           25         0.00025         76.1
   10          99,963           66         0.00066         68.1
   20          99,897          105         0.00105         61.8
   30          99,792          163         0.00163         50.8
   40          99,629          264         0.00265         39.4
   50          99,365          501         0.00504         28.0
   60          98,864          706         0.00714         19.9
   70          98,158          919         0.00936         13.9
   80          97,239        1,618         0.01664          4.3
   90          95,621        2,373         0.02482          2.8
  100          93,248        2,282         0.02447          2.0
  110          90,966       90,966         1.00000          2.3

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 83.0 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.9%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 97.2%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.77

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 421,534 death certificates.

Human: Show survival curve for Russia female in 2019

Actuarial AI: SURVIVAL CURVE ANALYSIS

Population: Russia Female
Reference Year: 2019
Initial Cohort: 100,000 births

SURVIVAL TABLE (l_x per 100,000):
  Age  Survivors (lx)  Deaths (dx) Prob Death (qx) Life Exp (ex)
============================================================
    0         100,000            2         0.00002         77.3
    1          99,998           10         0.00010         79.8
    5          99,988           25         0.00025         76.1
   10          99,963           66         0.00066         68.1
   20          99,897          105         0.00105         61.8
   30          99,792          163         0.00163         50.8
   40          99,629          264         0.00265         39.4
   50          99,365          501         0.00504         28.0
   60          98,864          706         0.00714         19.9
   70          98,158          919         0.00936         13.9
   80          97,239        1,618         0.01664          4.3
   90          95,621        2,373         0.02482          2.8
  100          93,248        2,282         0.02447          2.0
  110          90,966       90,966         1.00000          2.3

SURVIVAL METRICS:
• Median Survival Age: 110 years
• Life Expectancy at Birth: 83.0 years
• Infant Mortality Rate: 0.0 per 1,000
• Probability of Surviving to 65: 98.9%
• Probability of Surviving to 80: 97.2%

CURVE CHARACTERISTICS:
• Type: Type II (Diagonal)
• Compression: Moderate
• Rectangularization Index: 0.77

The survival curve follows Gompertz law after age 30.
Data sourced from 421,534 death certificates.


Instruction: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 62

Response:
MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 62
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.78%
• Current (2024): 0.68%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.94%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.9343
• 20-Year Factor: 0.8729
• 30-Year Factor: 0.8155

Cohort effect adjustment: Applied
Gender-specific: No

Human: Calculate mortality improvement factors for age 62

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS

Age: 62
Base Year: 2024
Improvement Scale: MP-2021

ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT RATES:
• Historical (2000-2020): 1.78%
• Current (2024): 0.68%
• Ultimate (2044+): 0.94%

PROJECTION FACTORS:
• 10-Year Factor: 0.9343
• 20-Year Factor: 0.8729
• 30-Year Factor: 0.8155

Cohort effect adjustment: Applied
Gender-specific: No


Instruction: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in UK

Response:
GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: UK
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 794.8
• Rural: 939.2
• Suburban: 766.3

Rural areas show 18.2% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.

Human: Compare urban vs other area mortality rates in UK

Actuarial AI: GEOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Country: UK
Focus: Urban Areas

MORTALITY RATES (per 100,000):
• Urban: 794.8
• Rural: 939.2
• Suburban: 766.3

Rural areas show 18.2% higher mortality.
Primary factors: healthcare access, emergency response times, demographics.


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 54 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 54
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_54): 0.002376
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 89% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $4989.78
• Expense Charge: $1247.44
• Reserve Accumulation: $1663.26
• Profit Margin: $415.81
• Gross Annual Premium: $8316.30

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $8316.30
• Semi-Annual: $4324.47 (x2 = $8648.95/year)
• Quarterly: $2203.82 (x4 = $8815.27/year)
• Monthly: $748.47 (x12 = $8981.60/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $6237.22
• First Year Reserve: $1663.26
• Terminal Reserve (Year 11): $364349.31

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.4%
Profit Margin: 9.0%
Lapse Assumption: 3.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 54 year old female, $1,000,000 coverage, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 54
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_54): 0.002376
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 89% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $4989.78
• Expense Charge: $1247.44
• Reserve Accumulation: $1663.26
• Profit Margin: $415.81
• Gross Annual Premium: $8316.30

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $8316.30
• Semi-Annual: $4324.47 (x2 = $8648.95/year)
• Quarterly: $2203.82 (x4 = $8815.27/year)
• Monthly: $748.47 (x12 = $8981.60/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $6237.22
• First Year Reserve: $1663.26
• Terminal Reserve (Year 11): $364349.31

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.4%
Profit Margin: 9.0%
Lapse Assumption: 3.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in USA for 25-44 in 2023?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: USA
Year: 2023
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 12.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 11.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 454,027
• Percentage of All Deaths: 24.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 14.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 10.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.50:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -11.2%
• 10-Year Change: -12.8%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.7%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 6175421
• Economic Burden: $34.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 21%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Complete (88% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in USA for 25-44 in 2023?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: USA
Year: 2023
Age Group: 25-44

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 12.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 11.3 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 454,027
• Percentage of All Deaths: 24.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 14.9 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 10.6 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.50:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -11.2%
• 10-Year Change: -12.8%
• Annual Percentage Change: +1.7%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 6175421
• Economic Burden: $34.9 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 21%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Complete (88% coverage)


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of SARS

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: SARS
Global Deaths: 746
Case Fatality Rate: 4.8%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.42%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $1.5 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of SARS

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: SARS
Global Deaths: 746
Case Fatality Rate: 4.8%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.42%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $1.5 trillion globally.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 70 year old male, $100,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 70
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_70): 0.004566
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 64% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $767.17
• Expense Charge: $191.79
• Reserve Accumulation: $255.72
• Profit Margin: $63.93
• Gross Annual Premium: $1278.62

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $1278.62
• Semi-Annual: $664.88 (x2 = $1329.76/year)
• Quarterly: $338.83 (x4 = $1355.34/year)
• Monthly: $115.08 (x12 = $1380.91/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $958.96
• First Year Reserve: $255.72
• Terminal Reserve (Year -5): $33339.38

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.9%
Profit Margin: 9.1%
Lapse Assumption: 3.2% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 70 year old male, $100,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 70
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_70): 0.004566
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 64% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $767.17
• Expense Charge: $191.79
• Reserve Accumulation: $255.72
• Profit Margin: $63.93
• Gross Annual Premium: $1278.62

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $1278.62
• Semi-Annual: $664.88 (x2 = $1329.76/year)
• Quarterly: $338.83 (x4 = $1355.34/year)
• Monthly: $115.08 (x12 = $1380.91/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $958.96
• First Year Reserve: $255.72
• Terminal Reserve (Year -5): $33339.38

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.9%
Profit Margin: 9.1%
Lapse Assumption: 3.2% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 90 year old female in Australia as of 2016?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Australia
• Age: 90 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2016

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 90 (e_90): 3.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 93.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 2.7 years
• Modal Age at Death: 88.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_90): 36.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_90): 13.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_90): 1.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_90): 0.20372
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_90): 0.18431
• Hazard Rate: 0.22780

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 90: -7.1 years
• Regional Rank: Top 21 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 238,667 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.0%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 90 year old female in Australia as of 2016?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Australia
• Age: 90 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2016

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 90 (e_90): 3.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 93.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 2.7 years
• Modal Age at Death: 88.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_90): 36.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_90): 13.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_90): 1.7%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_90): 0.20372
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_90): 0.18431
• Hazard Rate: 0.22780

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 90: -7.1 years
• Regional Rank: Top 21 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 238,667 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 4.0%.


Instruction: Compare infant mortality between Canada and Spain

Response:
INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Infant Mortality
Countries: Canada, Spain
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Canada: 4.8 per 1,000 live births
• Spain: 25.9 per 1,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. Canada: 4.8
2. Spain: 25.9

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 21.1
• Mean: 15.3
• Median: 15.3
• Standard Deviation: 10.6
• Coefficient of Variation: 68.9%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 5.43x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Canada: #73, Spain: #67

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 23% of variation
• Economic Development: 22% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 11% of variation
• Demographics: 13% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 6% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.5% annually

Human: Compare infant mortality between Canada and Spain

Actuarial AI: INTERNATIONAL MORTALITY COMPARISON

Metric: Infant Mortality
Countries: Canada, Spain
Reference Year: 2023

COMPARATIVE STATISTICS:
• Canada: 4.8 per 1,000 live births
• Spain: 25.9 per 1,000 live births

RANKINGS:
1. Canada: 4.8
2. Spain: 25.9

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
• Range: 21.1
• Mean: 15.3
• Median: 15.3
• Standard Deviation: 10.6
• Coefficient of Variation: 68.9%

RELATIVE COMPARISONS:
• Best vs Worst: 5.43x difference
• Above Average: 1/2
• Global Ranking: Canada: #73, Spain: #67

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare System: 23% of variation
• Economic Development: 22% of variation
• Public Health Policy: 11% of variation
• Demographics: 13% of variation
• Environmental Factors: 6% of variation

Convergence/Divergence: Diverging at 1.5% annually


Instruction: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 26 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, 25 year term, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Term Length: 25 years
• Issue Age: 26
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_26): 0.001038
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 82% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1245.83
• Expense Charge: $311.46
• Reserve Accumulation: $415.28
• Profit Margin: $103.82
• Gross Annual Premium: $2076.38

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2076.38
• Semi-Annual: $1079.72 (x2 = $2159.44/year)
• Quarterly: $550.24 (x4 = $2200.97/year)
• Monthly: $186.87 (x12 = $2242.50/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1557.29
• First Year Reserve: $415.28
• Terminal Reserve (Year 25): $947093.31

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.8%
Profit Margin: 9.7%
Lapse Assumption: 3.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 26 year old female, $2,000,000 coverage, 25 year term, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Term Length: 25 years
• Issue Age: 26
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_26): 0.001038
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 82% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1245.83
• Expense Charge: $311.46
• Reserve Accumulation: $415.28
• Profit Margin: $103.82
• Gross Annual Premium: $2076.38

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2076.38
• Semi-Annual: $1079.72 (x2 = $2159.44/year)
• Quarterly: $550.24 (x4 = $2200.97/year)
• Monthly: $186.87 (x12 = $2242.50/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $1557.29
• First Year Reserve: $415.28
• Terminal Reserve (Year 25): $947093.31

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.8%
Profit Margin: 9.7%
Lapse Assumption: 3.3% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 50?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 50 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: obesity, cancer history, heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_50): 0.005082 (0.5082%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_50): 0.025154 (2.515%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_50): 0.974846 (97.485%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.005095
• Hazard Rate (h_50): 0.005095
• Cumulative Hazard (H_50): 0.025476
• Median Future Lifetime: 136.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 5.1x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 408%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.021381
• Upper Bound: 0.028927

Analysis based on 105,846 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 50?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 50 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: obesity, cancer history, heart disease

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_50): 0.005082 (0.5082%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_50): 0.025154 (2.515%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_50): 0.974846 (97.485%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.005095
• Hazard Rate (h_50): 0.005095
• Cumulative Hazard (H_50): 0.025476
• Median Future Lifetime: 136.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 5.1x standard
• Risk Category: Standard
• Insurability: Substandard with exclusions
• Recommended Premium Loading: 408%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.021381
• Upper Bound: 0.028927

Analysis based on 105,846 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 43 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 33
• Current Age: 43
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1472.88
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $55150.01
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $21855.94

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $27937.11
• Per $1,000 Face: $279.37

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_43:10⌉ = 0.2256
• ä_43:10⌉ = 8.2635
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $27937.11

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8412.56
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4478.35
• Interest Earned: $1097.53
• ₁₀V = $27937.11

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $26540.25
• Tax Reserve: $25702.14
• GAAP Reserve: $29333.96

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 43 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 33
• Current Age: 43
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $1472.88
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $55150.01
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $21855.94

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $27937.11
• Per $1,000 Face: $279.37

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_43:10⌉ = 0.2256
• ä_43:10⌉ = 8.2635
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $27937.11

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $8412.56
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4478.35
• Interest Earned: $1097.53
• ₁₀V = $27937.11

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $26540.25
• Tax Reserve: $25702.14
• GAAP Reserve: $29333.96


Instruction: Project mortality rates for USA in 2030

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: USA
Target Year: 2030
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 644.3 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 86.3 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.58%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 547.7
• Upper: 741.0

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for USA in 2030

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: USA
Target Year: 2030
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 644.3 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 86.3 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.58%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 547.7
• Upper: 741.0

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 38 year old female, $5,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 38
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_38): 0.002323
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 58% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $24393.62
• Expense Charge: $6098.40
• Reserve Accumulation: $8131.21
• Profit Margin: $2032.80
• Gross Annual Premium: $40656.03

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $40656.03
• Semi-Annual: $21141.13 (x2 = $42282.27/year)
• Quarterly: $10773.85 (x4 = $43095.39/year)
• Monthly: $3659.04 (x12 = $43908.51/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $30492.02
• First Year Reserve: $8131.21
• Terminal Reserve (Year 27): $3135675.28

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.7%
Profit Margin: 9.2%
Lapse Assumption: 4.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Whole Life life insurance premium for 38 year old female, $5,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Whole Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 38
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_38): 0.002323
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 3.5x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 58% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $24393.62
• Expense Charge: $6098.40
• Reserve Accumulation: $8131.21
• Profit Margin: $2032.80
• Gross Annual Premium: $40656.03

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $40656.03
• Semi-Annual: $21141.13 (x2 = $42282.27/year)
• Quarterly: $10773.85 (x4 = $43095.39/year)
• Monthly: $3659.04 (x12 = $43908.51/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $30492.02
• First Year Reserve: $8131.21
• Terminal Reserve (Year 27): $3135675.28

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.7%
Profit Margin: 9.2%
Lapse Assumption: 4.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 35 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 25
• Current Age: 35
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $565.11
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $40677.20
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $39163.46

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $19695.49
• Per $1,000 Face: $196.95

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_35:10⌉ = 0.2365
• ä_35:10⌉ = 8.8055
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $19695.49

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $11602.98
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4104.94
• Interest Earned: $1768.45
• ₁₀V = $19695.49

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $18710.71
• Tax Reserve: $18119.85
• GAAP Reserve: $20680.26

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 35 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 25
• Current Age: 35
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $565.11
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $40677.20
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $39163.46

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $19695.49
• Per $1,000 Face: $196.95

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_35:10⌉ = 0.2365
• ä_35:10⌉ = 8.8055
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $19695.49

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $11602.98
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $4104.94
• Interest Earned: $1768.45
• ₁₀V = $19695.49

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $18710.71
• Tax Reserve: $18119.85
• GAAP Reserve: $20680.26


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 62 year old over next 1 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 62 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: obesity

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_62): 0.002626 (0.2626%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_62): 0.002626 (0.263%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_62): 0.997374 (99.737%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_62): 0.002629
• Hazard Rate (h_62): 0.002629
• Cumulative Hazard (H_62): 0.002629
• Median Future Lifetime: 263.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.6x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 163%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.002232
• Upper Bound: 0.003020

Analysis based on 166,498 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 62 year old over next 1 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 62 years
• Assessment Period: 1 year
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: obesity

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_62): 0.002626 (0.2626%)
• 1-Year Death Probability (₍1₎q_62): 0.002626 (0.263%)
• Survival Probability (₍1₎p_62): 0.997374 (99.737%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_62): 0.002629
• Hazard Rate (h_62): 0.002629
• Cumulative Hazard (H_62): 0.002629
• Median Future Lifetime: 263.6 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 2.6x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 163%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.002232
• Upper Bound: 0.003020

Analysis based on 166,498 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 70 year old female in France as of 2019?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 70 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2019

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 70 (e_70): 13.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 83.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 9.4 years
• Modal Age at Death: 78.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_70): 70.8%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_70): 50.2%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_70): 25.2%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_70): 0.06896
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_70): 0.06664
• Hazard Rate: 0.07146

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 70: 12.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 1 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 308,186 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.4%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 70 year old female in France as of 2019?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: France
• Age: 70 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2019

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 70 (e_70): 13.5 years
• Expected Age at Death: 83.5 years
• Median Survival Time: 9.4 years
• Modal Age at Death: 78.5 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_70): 70.8%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_70): 50.2%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_70): 25.2%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_70): 0.06896
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_70): 0.06664
• Hazard Rate: 0.07146

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 70: 12.5 years
• Regional Rank: Top 1 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 308,186 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.4%.


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in Italy for 2020

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: Italy
Period: 2020

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 18,303
• Observed Deaths: 24,029
• Excess Deaths: 5,726
• Excess Mortality Rate: 31.3%
• P-score: 31.3%
• Z-score: 3.74 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 3.0% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 9.8% (572 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 15.5% (1,431 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 27.8% (1,431 deaths)
• 75+ years: 24.1% (2,290 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 3,854 (57%)
• Indirect (probable): 994 (27%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 720 (18%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [4,867, 6,584]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 60255
Economic Impact: $1.9 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 47987

Human: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in Italy for 2020

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: Italy
Period: 2020

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 18,303
• Observed Deaths: 24,029
• Excess Deaths: 5,726
• Excess Mortality Rate: 31.3%
• P-score: 31.3%
• Z-score: 3.74 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Serfling regression
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 3.0% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: 9.8% (572 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 15.5% (1,431 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 27.8% (1,431 deaths)
• 75+ years: 24.1% (2,290 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 3,854 (57%)
• Indirect (probable): 994 (27%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 720 (18%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [4,867, 6,584]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.97

Years of Life Lost: 60255
Economic Impact: $1.9 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 47987


Instruction: Analyze mortality trends in UK from 2006-2024

Response:
MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: UK
Analysis Period: 2006-2024

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: +1.3%
• Total Change: -18.8%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 2.8 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +193 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 32% of improvement
• Public health measures: 24%
• Lifestyle changes: +12%
• Environmental factors: -14%

Human: Analyze mortality trends in UK from 2006-2024

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: UK
Analysis Period: 2006-2024

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: +1.3%
• Total Change: -18.8%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 2.8 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +193 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 32% of improvement
• Public health measures: 24%
• Lifestyle changes: +12%
• Environmental factors: -14%


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Manufacturing workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Manufacturing
Fatal Injury Rate: 64.1 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 4,494

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 21%
• Struck by object: 15%
• Electrocution: 9%
• Caught-in/between: 14%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $459,291

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Manufacturing workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Manufacturing
Fatal Injury Rate: 64.1 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 4,494

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 21%
• Struck by object: 15%
• Electrocution: 9%
• Caught-in/between: 14%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $459,291


Instruction: Analyze mortality trends in USA from 2009-2023

Response:
MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2009-2023

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: -2.0%
• Total Change: +15.8%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 2.4 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +168 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 21% of improvement
• Public health measures: 26%
• Lifestyle changes: +13%
• Environmental factors: +5%

Human: Analyze mortality trends in USA from 2009-2023

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2009-2023

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: -2.0%
• Total Change: +15.8%
• Trend Direction: Improving
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 2.4 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +168 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 21% of improvement
• Public health measures: 26%
• Lifestyle changes: +13%
• Environmental factors: +5%


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 64 year old male in Italy as of 2017?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Italy
• Age: 64 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 64 (e_64): 18.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 82.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 12.9 years
• Modal Age at Death: 77.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_64): 77.5%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_64): 60.1%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_64): 36.1%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_64): 0.05092
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_64): 0.04964
• Hazard Rate: 0.05226

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 64: 19.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 21 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 421,307 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.9%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 64 year old male in Italy as of 2017?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Italy
• Age: 64 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 64 (e_64): 18.6 years
• Expected Age at Death: 82.6 years
• Median Survival Time: 12.9 years
• Modal Age at Death: 77.6 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_64): 77.5%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_64): 60.1%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_64): 36.1%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_64): 0.05092
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_64): 0.04964
• Hazard Rate: 0.05226

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 64: 19.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 21 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 421,307 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.9%.


Instruction: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in Spain for Q2 2021

Response:
EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: Spain
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 36,001
• Observed Deaths: 45,712
• Excess Deaths: 9,711
• Excess Mortality Rate: 27.0%
• P-score: 27.0%
• Z-score: 2.64 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Farrington surveillance
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.4% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: -4.3% (971 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 13.9% (2,427 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 17.6% (2,427 deaths)
• 75+ years: 18.5% (3,884 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 6,213 (77%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,161 (17%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 1,667 (15%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [8,254, 11,167]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.98

Years of Life Lost: 143511
Economic Impact: $1.9 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 88052

Human: Calculate excess mortality during 2022 heat wave in Spain for Q2 2021

Actuarial AI: EXCESS MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Event: 2022 heat wave
Location: Spain
Period: Q2 2021

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Expected Deaths (Baseline): 36,001
• Observed Deaths: 45,712
• Excess Deaths: 9,711
• Excess Mortality Rate: 27.0%
• P-score: 27.0%
• Z-score: 2.64 (p < 0.001)

BASELINE CALCULATION:
• Method: Farrington surveillance
• Reference Period: 2015-2019
• Seasonal Adjustment: Applied
• Trend Adjustment: 2.4% annual

AGE-SPECIFIC EXCESS:
• 0-44 years: -4.3% (971 deaths)
• 45-64 years: 13.9% (2,427 deaths)
• 65-74 years: 17.6% (2,427 deaths)
• 75+ years: 18.5% (3,884 deaths)

CAUSE ATTRIBUTION:
• Direct (confirmed): 6,213 (77%)
• Indirect (probable): 1,161 (17%)
• Collateral (delayed care): 1,667 (15%)

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:
• 95% CI: [8,254, 11,167]
• Probability of chance: < 0.001
• Power: 0.98

Years of Life Lost: 143511
Economic Impact: $1.9 billion
Quality-Adjusted Life Years Lost: 88052


Instruction: What are the mortality characteristics for infant population?

Response:
AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Infant (0-1 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 10.51 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Congenital anomalies, prematurity, SIDS
• Preventable Deaths: 32%

Life table analysis shows high early risk.

Human: What are the mortality characteristics for infant population?

Actuarial AI: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Age Group: Infant (0-1 years)

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Death Rate: 10.51 per 1,000
• Leading Causes: Congenital anomalies, prematurity, SIDS
• Preventable Deaths: 32%

Life table analysis shows high early risk.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 60 year old male, $1,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 60
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_60): 0.006544
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 60% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $10994.05
• Expense Charge: $2748.51
• Reserve Accumulation: $3664.68
• Profit Margin: $916.17
• Gross Annual Premium: $18323.42

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $18323.42
• Semi-Annual: $9528.18 (x2 = $19056.35/year)
• Quarterly: $4855.71 (x4 = $19422.82/year)
• Monthly: $1649.11 (x12 = $19789.29/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $13742.56
• First Year Reserve: $3664.68
• Terminal Reserve (Year 5): $636329.86

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.3%
Profit Margin: 8.2%
Lapse Assumption: 7.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 60 year old male, $1,000,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $1,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 60
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_60): 0.006544
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 60% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $10994.05
• Expense Charge: $2748.51
• Reserve Accumulation: $3664.68
• Profit Margin: $916.17
• Gross Annual Premium: $18323.42

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $18323.42
• Semi-Annual: $9528.18 (x2 = $19056.35/year)
• Quarterly: $4855.71 (x4 = $19422.82/year)
• Monthly: $1649.11 (x12 = $19789.29/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $13742.56
• First Year Reserve: $3664.68
• Terminal Reserve (Year 5): $636329.86

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 15 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.3%
Profit Margin: 8.2%
Lapse Assumption: 7.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pri-2012
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Experience Adjustment: 96%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.95
• Credibility Factor: 0.72
• Indicated Change: -6.1%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-2.2 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -1.2%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for pension plan

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Pension Plan
Valuation Date: 12/31/2024

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pri-2012
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Experience Adjustment: 96%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.95
• Credibility Factor: 0.72
• Indicated Change: -6.1%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $-2.2 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: -1.2%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pri-2012
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 110%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.97
• Credibility Factor: 0.83
• Indicated Change: +5.9%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $4.9 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +0.6%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pri-2012
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Experience Adjustment: 110%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.97
• Credibility Factor: 0.83
• Indicated Change: +5.9%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $4.9 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +0.6%

Recommendation: Maintain current assumptions


Instruction: Summarize group life mortality experience study results

Response:
MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Group Life Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2024
Exposure: 554061 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 1.02
• Deaths Actual: 1,515
• Deaths Expected: 2,560

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.72
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 0.99

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.88, 1.09]

Human: Summarize group life mortality experience study results

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY EXPERIENCE STUDY

Study Type: Group Life Insurance
Study Period: 2021-2024
Exposure: 554061 life-years

ACTUAL vs EXPECTED:
• Overall A/E Ratio: 1.02
• Deaths Actual: 1,515
• Deaths Expected: 2,560

BY DURATION:
• Select Period (Years 1-5): 0.72
• Ultimate (Years 6+): 0.99

Statistical confidence: 95% CI [0.88, 1.09]


Instruction: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Response:
MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 90%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.90
• Credibility Factor: 0.79
• Indicated Change: -2.8%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $1.9 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +1.4%

Recommendation: Update assumptions

Human: Perform mortality assumption review for annuity block

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY ASSUMPTION VALUATION

Product: Annuity Block
Valuation Date: 12/31/2023

CURRENT ASSUMPTIONS:
• Base Table: Pub-2010
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Experience Adjustment: 90%

EXPERIENCE ANALYSIS:
• Actual/Expected Ratio: 0.90
• Credibility Factor: 0.79
• Indicated Change: -2.8%

FINANCIAL IMPACT:
• Reserve Change: $1.9 million
• Funded Ratio Impact: +1.4%

Recommendation: Update assumptions


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by ethnicity in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Ethnicity
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2019

MORTALITY RATES BY ETHNICITY (per 100,000):
• Non-Hispanic White: 650.1
• Hispanic: 208.0
• Non-Hispanic Black: 1013.4
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 659.0

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.58
• Rate Difference: 330.5 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 36.9%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.225

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY ETHNICITY:
• Non-Hispanic White: 84.9 years
• Hispanic: 77.5 years
• Non-Hispanic Black: 78.2 years
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 76.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 25% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 27% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 24% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -1.0%

Social determinants explain 76% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by ethnicity in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Ethnicity
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2019

MORTALITY RATES BY ETHNICITY (per 100,000):
• Non-Hispanic White: 650.1
• Hispanic: 208.0
• Non-Hispanic Black: 1013.4
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 659.0

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.58
• Rate Difference: 330.5 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 36.9%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.225

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY ETHNICITY:
• Non-Hispanic White: 84.9 years
• Hispanic: 77.5 years
• Non-Hispanic Black: 78.2 years
• Asian/Pacific Islander: 76.7 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 25% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 27% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 24% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 23% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 8% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -1.0%

Social determinants explain 76% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Kidney Disease in Germany for 65-74 in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Kidney Disease
Location: Germany
Year: 2021
Age Group: 65-74

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 14.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 12.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 51,228
• Percentage of All Deaths: 22.2%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 17.3 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 12.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.22:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +11.5%
• 10-Year Change: +20.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #14
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 910956
• Economic Burden: $51.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 24%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): N00-N19
Data Quality: Near-Complete (95% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Kidney Disease in Germany for 65-74 in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Kidney Disease
Location: Germany
Year: 2021
Age Group: 65-74

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 14.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 12.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 51,228
• Percentage of All Deaths: 22.2%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 17.3 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 12.3 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.22:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +11.5%
• 10-Year Change: +20.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.3%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #14
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 910956
• Economic Burden: $51.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 24%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): N00-N19
Data Quality: Near-Complete (95% coverage)


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 85 year old both in Australia as of 2021?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Australia
• Age: 85 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2021

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 85 (e_85): 0.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 85.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 0.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 80.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_85): 0.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_85): 0.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_85): 0.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_85): 1.00000
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_85): 0.63212
• Hazard Rate: 4.60517

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 85: -2.1 years
• Regional Rank: Top 12 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 194,415 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.4%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 85 year old both in Australia as of 2021?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Australia
• Age: 85 years
• Sex: Both
• Reference Year: 2021

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 85 (e_85): 0.0 years
• Expected Age at Death: 85.0 years
• Median Survival Time: 0.0 years
• Modal Age at Death: 80.0 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_85): 0.7%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_85): 0.0%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_85): 0.0%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_85): 1.00000
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_85): 0.63212
• Hazard Rate: 4.60517

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 85: -2.1 years
• Regional Rank: Top 12 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 194,415 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.4%.


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 82 year old female in Australia as of 2017?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Australia
• Age: 82 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 82 (e_82): 7.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 89.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 5.5 years
• Modal Age at Death: 84.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_82): 57.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_82): 32.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_82): 10.6%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_82): 0.11217
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_82): 0.10611
• Hazard Rate: 0.11897

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 82: 0.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 4 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 381,401 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.2%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 82 year old female in Australia as of 2017?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Australia
• Age: 82 years
• Sex: Female
• Reference Year: 2017

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 82 (e_82): 7.9 years
• Expected Age at Death: 89.9 years
• Median Survival Time: 5.5 years
• Modal Age at Death: 84.9 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_82): 57.1%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_82): 32.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_82): 10.6%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_82): 0.11217
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_82): 0.10611
• Hazard Rate: 0.11897

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 82: 0.9 years
• Regional Rank: Top 4 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 381,401 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 3.2%.


Instruction: Analyze mortality impact of SARS

Response:
PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: SARS
Global Deaths: 807
Case Fatality Rate: 7.6%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.95%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $8.2 trillion globally.

Human: Analyze mortality impact of SARS

Actuarial AI: PANDEMIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Pandemic: SARS
Global Deaths: 807
Case Fatality Rate: 7.6%
Infection Fatality Rate: 1.95%

Age-specific mortality shows exponential increase with age.
Economic impact: $8.2 trillion globally.


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 25 year old female, $5,000,000 coverage, Standard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 25
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_25): 0.001004
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 85% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $8434.91
• Expense Charge: $2108.73
• Reserve Accumulation: $2811.64
• Profit Margin: $702.91
• Gross Annual Premium: $14058.19

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $14058.19
• Semi-Annual: $7310.26 (x2 = $14620.52/year)
• Quarterly: $3725.42 (x4 = $14901.68/year)
• Monthly: $1265.24 (x12 = $15182.84/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $10543.64
• First Year Reserve: $2811.64
• Terminal Reserve (Year 40): $2420547.68

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.0%
Profit Margin: 12.4%
Lapse Assumption: 4.8% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 25 year old female, $5,000,000 coverage, Standard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $5,000,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 25
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Standard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_25): 0.001004
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.0x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 85% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $8434.91
• Expense Charge: $2108.73
• Reserve Accumulation: $2811.64
• Profit Margin: $702.91
• Gross Annual Premium: $14058.19

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $14058.19
• Semi-Annual: $7310.26 (x2 = $14620.52/year)
• Quarterly: $3725.42 (x4 = $14901.68/year)
• Monthly: $1265.24 (x12 = $15182.84/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $10543.64
• First Year Reserve: $2811.64
• Terminal Reserve (Year 40): $2420547.68

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.0%
Profit Margin: 12.4%
Lapse Assumption: 4.8% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate policy reserve for 51 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Response:
POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 41
• Current Age: 51
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $698.14
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $55138.42
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $24148.98

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $20151.72
• Per $1,000 Face: $201.52

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_51:10⌉ = 0.1524
• ä_51:10⌉ = 9.8780
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $20151.72

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $11528.01
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3341.42
• Interest Earned: $1672.04
• ₁₀V = $20151.72

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $19144.14
• Tax Reserve: $18539.59
• GAAP Reserve: $21159.31

Human: Calculate policy reserve for 51 year old, 20-year term life, year 10

Actuarial AI: POLICY RESERVE CALCULATION

Policy Information:
• Product: 20-Year Term Life
• Face Amount: $100,000
• Issue Age: 41
• Current Age: 51
• Policy Year: 10
• Valuation Method: Net Level Premium (NLP)

RESERVE COMPONENTS:
• Net Level Premium (P): $698.14
• Present Value Future Benefits (PVFB): $55138.42
• Present Value Future Premiums (PVFP): $24148.98

TERMINAL RESERVE (₁₀V):
• Formula: ₁₀V = PVFB - PVFP
• Calculation: $20151.72
• Per $1,000 Face: $201.52

PROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• A₁_51:10⌉ = 0.1524
• ä_51:10⌉ = 9.8780
• ₁₀V = 100,000 × A₁ - P × ä = $20151.72

RETROSPECTIVE METHOD:
• Accumulated Premiums: $11528.01
• Accumulated Cost of Insurance: $3341.42
• Interest Earned: $1672.04
• ₁₀V = $20151.72

STATUTORY REQUIREMENTS:
• Minimum Reserve (CRVM): $19144.14
• Tax Reserve: $18539.59
• GAAP Reserve: $21159.31


Instruction: Project mortality rates for India in 2042

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2042
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 700.3 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 82.8 years
• Annual Improvement: 0.61%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 595.3
• Upper: 805.4

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for India in 2042

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: India
Target Year: 2042
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 700.3 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 82.8 years
• Annual Improvement: 0.61%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 595.3
• Upper: 805.4

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 94?

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 94 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_94): 0.003667 (0.3667%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_94): 0.018202 (1.820%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_94): 0.981798 (98.180%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_94): 0.003674
• Hazard Rate (h_94): 0.003674
• Cumulative Hazard (H_94): 0.018370
• Median Future Lifetime: 188.7 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 3.7x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 267%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.015472
• Upper Bound: 0.020932

Analysis based on 141,510 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: What is the probability of death within 5 years for someone age 94?

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 94 years
• Assessment Period: 5 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_94): 0.003667 (0.3667%)
• 5-Year Death Probability (₍5₎q_94): 0.018202 (1.820%)
• Survival Probability (₍5₎p_94): 0.981798 (98.180%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_94): 0.003674
• Hazard Rate (h_94): 0.003674
• Cumulative Hazard (H_94): 0.018370
• Median Future Lifetime: 188.7 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 3.7x standard
• Risk Category: Standard Plus
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 267%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.015472
• Upper Bound: 0.020932

Analysis based on 141,510 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: Mortality risk assessment for 36 year old over next 30 years

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 36 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: obesity

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_36): 0.000511 (0.0511%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_36): 0.015218 (1.522%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_36): 0.984782 (98.478%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_36): 0.000511
• Hazard Rate (h_36): 0.000511
• Cumulative Hazard (H_36): 0.015335
• Median Future Lifetime: 1356.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.5x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.012935
• Upper Bound: 0.017501

Analysis based on 143,462 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Mortality risk assessment for 36 year old over next 30 years

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 36 years
• Assessment Period: 30 years
• Smoking Status: Non-smoker
• Health Conditions: obesity

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_36): 0.000511 (0.0511%)
• 30-Year Death Probability (₍30₎q_36): 0.015218 (1.522%)
• Survival Probability (₍30₎p_36): 0.984782 (98.478%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_36): 0.000511
• Hazard Rate (h_36): 0.000511
• Cumulative Hazard (H_36): 0.015335
• Median Future Lifetime: 1356.0 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 0.5x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred Plus
• Insurability: Standard with loading
• Recommended Premium Loading: 0%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.012935
• Upper Bound: 0.017501

Analysis based on 143,462 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Suicide in Germany for 45-64 in 2020?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Suicide
Location: Germany
Year: 2020
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 17.8 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 16.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 362,306
• Percentage of All Deaths: 8.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 21.4 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 15.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.25:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -13.0%
• 10-Year Change: +10.0%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.8%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 9014713
• Economic Burden: $34.0 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 54%

RISK FACTORS:
• Mental illness: 90% of cases
• Substance abuse: 30%
• Previous attempt: 40x risk
• Access to means: Critical
• Social isolation: 25%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): X60-X84
Data Quality: Complete (90% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Suicide in Germany for 45-64 in 2020?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Suicide
Location: Germany
Year: 2020
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 17.8 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 16.1 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 362,306
• Percentage of All Deaths: 8.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 21.4 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 15.1 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.25:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: -13.0%
• 10-Year Change: +10.0%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.8%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #5
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 9014713
• Economic Burden: $34.0 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 54%

RISK FACTORS:
• Mental illness: 90% of cases
• Substance abuse: 30%
• Previous attempt: 40x risk
• Access to means: Critical
• Social isolation: 25%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): X60-X84
Data Quality: Complete (90% coverage)


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 49 year old female, $750,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 49
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_49): 0.001676
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 62% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2111.88
• Expense Charge: $527.97
• Reserve Accumulation: $703.96
• Profit Margin: $175.99
• Gross Annual Premium: $3519.80

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3519.80
• Semi-Annual: $1830.29 (x2 = $3660.59/year)
• Quarterly: $932.75 (x4 = $3730.98/year)
• Monthly: $316.78 (x12 = $3801.38/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2639.85
• First Year Reserve: $703.96
• Terminal Reserve (Year 16): $390853.80

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.0%
Profit Margin: 9.6%
Lapse Assumption: 6.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 49 year old female, $750,000 coverage, Preferred rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 49
• Sex: Female
• Underwriting Class: Preferred

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_49): 0.001676
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.75x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 62% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2111.88
• Expense Charge: $527.97
• Reserve Accumulation: $703.96
• Profit Margin: $175.99
• Gross Annual Premium: $3519.80

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $3519.80
• Semi-Annual: $1830.29 (x2 = $3660.59/year)
• Quarterly: $932.75 (x4 = $3730.98/year)
• Monthly: $316.78 (x12 = $3801.38/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2639.85
• First Year Reserve: $703.96
• Terminal Reserve (Year 16): $390853.80

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Female
• Improvement Scale: MP-2020
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Female Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 9.0%
Profit Margin: 9.6%
Lapse Assumption: 6.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Analyze mortality differences by race in the USA

Response:
DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Race
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2020

MORTALITY RATES BY RACE (per 100,000):
• White: 1106.6
• Black: 485.6
• Asian: 548.7
• Hispanic: 951.2
• Native American: 1020.8

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.66
• Rate Difference: 480.7 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 13.0%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.116

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY RACE:
• White: 82.1 years
• Black: 74.7 years
• Asian: 74.4 years
• Hispanic: 74.1 years
• Native American: 85.0 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 32% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 27% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 24% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 13% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 6% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -0.6%

Social determinants explain 75% of observed mortality differences.

Human: Analyze mortality differences by race in the USA

Actuarial AI: DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable: Race
Country: USA
Analysis Period: 2020

MORTALITY RATES BY RACE (per 100,000):
• White: 1106.6
• Black: 485.6
• Asian: 548.7
• Hispanic: 951.2
• Native American: 1020.8

DISPARITY METRICS:
• Rate Ratio (Highest/Lowest): 1.66
• Rate Difference: 480.7 per 100,000
• Population Attributable Risk: 13.0%
• Gini Coefficient: 0.116

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY RACE:
• White: 82.1 years
• Black: 74.7 years
• Asian: 74.4 years
• Hispanic: 74.1 years
• Native American: 85.0 years

CONTRIBUTING FACTORS:
• Healthcare Access: 32% of disparity
• Socioeconomic Status: 27% of disparity
• Environmental Factors: 24% of disparity
• Behavioral Factors: 13% of disparity
• Biological Factors: 6% of disparity

TREND ANALYSIS:
• Disparities are widening
• Annual change in disparity: -0.6%

Social determinants explain 75% of observed mortality differences.


Instruction: What is the occupational mortality rate for Agriculture workers?

Response:
OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Agriculture
Fatal Injury Rate: 64.9 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 4,204

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 38%
• Struck by object: 24%
• Electrocution: 5%
• Caught-in/between: 15%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $351,692

Human: What is the occupational mortality rate for Agriculture workers?

Actuarial AI: OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Industry: Agriculture
Fatal Injury Rate: 64.9 per 100,000 full-time workers
Annual Deaths: 4,204

LEADING CAUSES:
• Falls: 38%
• Struck by object: 24%
• Electrocution: 5%
• Caught-in/between: 15%

Workers' compensation death benefit: $351,692


Instruction: Calculate the 10-year death probability for a 50 year oldsmoker

Response:
MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 50 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_50): 0.001043 (0.1043%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_50): 0.010383 (1.038%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_50): 0.989617 (98.962%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.001044
• Hazard Rate (h_50): 0.001044
• Cumulative Hazard (H_50): 0.010437
• Median Future Lifetime: 664.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.0x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 4%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.008826
• Upper Bound: 0.011940

Analysis based on 114,417 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.

Human: Calculate the 10-year death probability for a 50 year oldsmoker

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT

Subject Profile:
• Age: 50 years
• Assessment Period: 10 years
• Smoking Status: Smoker (2.5x mortality multiplier)
• Health Conditions: None reported

DEATH PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS:
• Annual Death Probability (q_50): 0.001043 (0.1043%)
• 10-Year Death Probability (₍10₎q_50): 0.010383 (1.038%)
• Survival Probability (₍10₎p_50): 0.989617 (98.962%)

DETAILED MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_50): 0.001044
• Hazard Rate (h_50): 0.001044
• Cumulative Hazard (H_50): 0.010437
• Median Future Lifetime: 664.1 years

RISK CLASSIFICATION:
• Mortality Ratio: 1.0x standard
• Risk Category: Preferred
• Insurability: Standard or better
• Recommended Premium Loading: 4%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower Bound: 0.008826
• Upper Bound: 0.011940

Analysis based on 114,417 similar profiles.
Mortality follows Gompertz-Makeham law with parameters estimated via MLE.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in UK for 45-64 in 2021?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: UK
Year: 2021
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 14.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 12.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 271,304
• Percentage of All Deaths: 16.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 16.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 11.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.43:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +12.7%
• 10-Year Change: -15.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.1%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #13
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 8012964
• Economic Burden: $51.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 47%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Complete (95% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Liver Disease in UK for 45-64 in 2021?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Liver Disease
Location: UK
Year: 2021
Age Group: 45-64

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 14.0 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 12.5 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 271,304
• Percentage of All Deaths: 16.3%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 16.8 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 11.9 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.43:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +12.7%
• 10-Year Change: -15.5%
• Annual Percentage Change: -2.1%
• Trend: Increasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #13
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 8012964
• Economic Burden: $51.4 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 47%

RISK FACTORS:
• Multiple factors
• Age-dependent
• Varies by population

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): K70-K77
Data Quality: Complete (95% coverage)


Instruction: What is the life expectancy for a 31 year old male in Italy as of 2021?

Response:
ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Italy
• Age: 31 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2021

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 31 (e_31): 51.4 years
• Expected Age at Death: 82.4 years
• Median Survival Time: 35.6 years
• Modal Age at Death: 77.4 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_31): 90.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_31): 82.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_31): 68.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_31): 0.01907
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_31): 0.01889
• Hazard Rate: 0.01925

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 31: 52.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 2 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 356,643 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.7%.

Human: What is the life expectancy for a 31 year old male in Italy as of 2021?

Actuarial AI: ACTUARIAL ANALYSIS: Life Expectancy Calculation

Demographics:
• Location: Italy
• Age: 31 years
• Sex: Male
• Reference Year: 2021

LIFE EXPECTANCY METRICS:
• Life Expectancy at Age 31 (e_31): 51.4 years
• Expected Age at Death: 82.4 years
• Median Survival Time: 35.6 years
• Modal Age at Death: 77.4 years

SURVIVAL PROBABILITIES:
• 5-Year Survival (₅p_31): 90.9%
• 10-Year Survival (₁₀p_31): 82.6%
• 20-Year Survival (₂₀p_31): 68.3%

MORTALITY METRICS:
• Force of Mortality (μ_31): 0.01907
• Probability of Death within 1 Year (q_31): 0.01889
• Hazard Rate: 0.01925

COMPARATIVE CONTEXT:
• Global Average at Age 31: 52.4 years
• Regional Rank: Top 2 globally
• Historical Trend: Improving

Based on 356,643 death records and actuarial projections.
Each year survived reduces remaining uncertainty by 2.7%.


Instruction: Project mortality rates for China in 2040

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: China
Target Year: 2040
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 708.2 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 86.0 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.84%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 602.0
• Upper: 814.5

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for China in 2040

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: China
Target Year: 2040
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 708.2 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 86.0 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.84%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 602.0
• Upper: 814.5

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: Project mortality rates for China in 2044

Response:
MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: China
Target Year: 2044
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 644.5 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 88.7 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.42%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 547.8
• Upper: 741.1

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.

Human: Project mortality rates for China in 2044

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY PROJECTION

Country: China
Target Year: 2044
Projection Method: Lee-Carter Model with Coherent Forecasting

PROJECTED METRICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 644.5 per 100,000
• Life Expectancy: 88.7 years
• Annual Improvement: 1.42%

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (95%):
• Lower: 547.8
• Upper: 741.1

Projection assumes continuation of current trends.
Uncertainty increases with projection horizon.


Instruction: What is the mortality rate for Cancer in France for 75+ in 2023?

Response:
CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Cancer
Location: France
Year: 2023
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 179.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 165.2 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 4,475,368
• Percentage of All Deaths: 20.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 215.3 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 152.5 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.21:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +12.5%
• 10-Year Change: -7.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: +0.8%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #3
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 76411955
• Economic Burden: $34.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 21%

RISK FACTORS:
• Tobacco use: 30% attributable
• Diet: 20%
• Infections: 15%
• Alcohol: 10%
• Environmental: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): C00-C97
Data Quality: Near-Complete (97% coverage)

Human: What is the mortality rate for Cancer in France for 75+ in 2023?

Actuarial AI: CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY ANALYSIS

Cause of Death: Cancer
Location: France
Year: 2023
Age Group: 75+

MORTALITY STATISTICS:
• Crude Death Rate: 179.4 per 100,000 population
• Age-Adjusted Rate: 165.2 per 100,000
• Total Deaths: 4,475,368
• Percentage of All Deaths: 20.9%

DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
• Male Death Rate: 215.3 per 100,000
• Female Death Rate: 152.5 per 100,000
• Sex Ratio (M:F): 1.21:1

TREND ANALYSIS:
• 5-Year Change: +12.5%
• 10-Year Change: -7.7%
• Annual Percentage Change: +0.8%
• Trend: Decreasing

COMPARATIVE METRICS:
• Rank Among Leading Causes: #3
• Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL): 76411955
• Economic Burden: $34.3 billion annually
• Preventable Deaths: 21%

RISK FACTORS:
• Tobacco use: 30% attributable
• Diet: 20%
• Infections: 15%
• Alcohol: 10%
• Environmental: 10%

International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): C00-C97
Data Quality: Near-Complete (97% coverage)


Instruction: Analyze mortality trends in Japan from 2004-2023

Response:
MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: Japan
Analysis Period: 2004-2023

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: -1.5%
• Total Change: +20.7%
• Trend Direction: Worsening
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 0.9 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +139 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 29% of improvement
• Public health measures: 20%
• Lifestyle changes: -19%
• Environmental factors: -9%

Human: Analyze mortality trends in Japan from 2004-2023

Actuarial AI: MORTALITY TREND ANALYSIS

Country: Japan
Analysis Period: 2004-2023

OVERALL TRENDS:
• Average Annual Change: -1.5%
• Total Change: +20.7%
• Trend Direction: Worsening
• Statistical Significance: p < 0.001

Life expectancy increased by 0.9 years.
Age-standardized death rate changed by +139 per 100,000.

KEY DRIVERS:
• Medical advances: 29% of improvement
• Public health measures: 20%
• Lifestyle changes: -19%
• Environmental factors: -9%


Instruction: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 28 year old male, $750,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 28
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_28): 0.002252
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 99% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2837.73
• Expense Charge: $709.43
• Reserve Accumulation: $945.91
• Profit Margin: $236.48
• Gross Annual Premium: $4729.55

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $4729.55
• Semi-Annual: $2459.37 (x2 = $4918.74/year)
• Quarterly: $1253.33 (x4 = $5013.33/year)
• Monthly: $425.66 (x12 = $5107.92/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3547.17
• First Year Reserve: $945.91
• Terminal Reserve (Year 37): $506727.66

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.6%
Profit Margin: 12.8%
Lapse Assumption: 3.8% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Universal Life life insurance premium for 28 year old male, $750,000 coverage, Substandard rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Universal Life Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $750,000
• Duration: Lifetime Coverage
• Issue Age: 28
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Substandard

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_28): 0.002252
• Underwriting Multiplier: 1.5x
• Product Load Factor: 2.8x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 99% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $2837.73
• Expense Charge: $709.43
• Reserve Accumulation: $945.91
• Profit Margin: $236.48
• Gross Annual Premium: $4729.55

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $4729.55
• Semi-Annual: $2459.37 (x2 = $4918.74/year)
• Quarterly: $1253.33 (x4 = $5013.33/year)
• Monthly: $425.66 (x12 = $5107.92/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $3547.17
• First Year Reserve: $945.91
• Terminal Reserve (Year 37): $506727.66

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2021
• Select Period: 25 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 11.6%
Profit Margin: 12.8%
Lapse Assumption: 3.8% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.


Instruction: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 28 year old male, $2,000,000 coverage, 10 year term, Standard Plus rating

Response:
LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Term Length: 10 years
• Issue Age: 28
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_28): 0.001351
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 99% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1621.56
• Expense Charge: $405.39
• Reserve Accumulation: $540.52
• Profit Margin: $135.13
• Gross Annual Premium: $2702.60

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2702.60
• Semi-Annual: $1405.35 (x2 = $2810.71/year)
• Quarterly: $716.19 (x4 = $2864.76/year)
• Monthly: $243.23 (x12 = $2918.81/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2026.95
• First Year Reserve: $540.52
• Terminal Reserve (Year 10): $1232705.21

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.7%
Profit Margin: 14.7%
Lapse Assumption: 4.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.

Human: Calculate Term life insurance premium for 28 year old male, $2,000,000 coverage, 10 year term, Standard Plus rating

Actuarial AI: LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION

Policy Details:
• Product Type: Term Life Insurance
• Face Amount: $2,000,000
• Term Length: 10 years
• Issue Age: 28
• Sex: Male
• Underwriting Class: Standard Plus

PREMIUM COMPUTATION:
• Base Mortality Rate (q_28): 0.001351
• Underwriting Multiplier: 0.9x
• Product Load Factor: 1.0x
• Expense Loading: 15% of gross premium
• Commission Load: 99% first year, 5% renewal

ANNUAL PREMIUM BREAKDOWN:
• Mortality Cost: $1621.56
• Expense Charge: $405.39
• Reserve Accumulation: $540.52
• Profit Margin: $135.13
• Gross Annual Premium: $2702.60

PAYMENT OPTIONS:
• Annual: $2702.60
• Semi-Annual: $1405.35 (x2 = $2810.71/year)
• Quarterly: $716.19 (x4 = $2864.76/year)
• Monthly: $243.23 (x12 = $2918.81/year)

RESERVE CALCULATIONS:
• Net Level Premium: $2026.95
• First Year Reserve: $540.52
• Terminal Reserve (Year 10): $1232705.21

MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS:
• Mortality Table: 2017 CSO Male
• Improvement Scale: MP-2019
• Select Period: 20 years
• Ultimate Mortality: CSO Male Ultimate

Internal Rate of Return: 10.7%
Profit Margin: 14.7%
Lapse Assumption: 4.6% annual

Illustration assumes guaranteed rates. Actual results may vary.