Est-ce que les attaques cybernétiques vont continuer à s'intensifier avec le temps, ou est-ce que les États vont finir par réussir à mettre un frein à tout ça ?
History

Since the Internet 's arrival and with the digital transformation initiated in recent years, the notion of cybersecurity has become a familiar subject in both our professional and personal lives. Cybersecurity and cyber threats have been consistently present for the last 60 years of technological change. In the 1970s and 1980s, computer security was mainly limited to academia until the conception of the Internet, where, with increased connectivity, computer viruses and network intrusions began to take off. After the spread of viruses in the 1990s, the 2000s marked the institutionalization of organized attacks such as distributed denial of service. This led to the formalization of cybersecurity as a professional discipline.

The April 1967 session organized by Willis Ware at the Spring Joint Computer Conference, and the later publication of the Ware Report, were foundational moments in the history of the field of computer security. Ware's work straddled the intersection of material, cultural, political, and social concerns.

A 1977 NIST publication introduced the CIA triad of confidentiality, integrity, and availability as a clear and simple way to describe key security goals. While still relevant, many more elaborate frameworks have since been proposed.

However, in the 1970s and 1980s, there were no grave computer threats because computers and the internet were still developing, and security threats were easily identifiable. More often, threats came from malicious insiders who gained unauthorized access to sensitive documents and files. Although malware and network breaches existed during the early years, they did not use them for financial gain. By the second half of the 1970s, established computer firms like IBM started offering commercial access control systems and computer security software products.

One of the earliest examples of an attack on a computer network was the computer worm Creeper written by Bob Thomas at BBN, which propagated through the ARPANET in 1971. The program was purely experimental in nature and carried no malicious payload. A later program, Reaper, was created by Ray Tomlinson in 1972 and used to destroy Creeper.

Between September 1986 and June 1987, a group of German hackers performed the first documented case of cyber espionage. The group hacked into American defense contractors, universities, and military base networks and sold gathered information to the Soviet KGB. The group was led by Markus Hess, who was arrested on 29 June 1987. He was convicted of espionage (along with two co-conspirators) on 15 Feb 1990.

In 1988, one of the first computer worms, called the Morris worm, was distributed via the Internet. It gained significant mainstream media attention.

In 1993, Netscape started developing the protocol SSL, shortly after the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) launched Mosaic 1.0, the first web browser, in 1993. Netscape had SSL version 1.0 ready in 1994, but it was never released to the public due to many serious security vulnerabilities. These weaknesses included replay attacks and a vulnerability that allowed hackers to alter unencrypted communications sent by users. However, in February 1995, Netscape launched Version 2.0.

The National Security Agency (NSA) is responsible for the protection of U.S. information systems and also for collecting foreign intelligence. The agency analyzes commonly used software and system configurations to find security flaws, which it can use for offensive purposes against competitors of the United States.

NSA contractors created and sold click-and-shoot attack tools to US agencies and close allies, but eventually, the tools made their way to foreign adversaries. In 2016, NSAs own hacking tools were hacked, and they have been used by Russia and North Korea. NSA's employees and contractors have been recruited at high salaries by adversaries, anxious to compete in cyberwarfare. In 2007, the United States and Israel began exploiting security flaws in the Microsoft Windows operating system to attack and damage equipment used in Iran to refine nuclear materials. Iran responded by heavily investing in their own cyberwarfare capability, which it began using against the United States.
La cyberguerre est l'utilisation de la technologie informatique pour perturber les activités d'un État ou d'une organisation, en particulier l'attaque délibérée de systèmes d'information à des fins stratégiques ou militaires. En tant qu'économie développée majeure, les États-Unis sont fortement dépendants d'Internet et donc fortement exposés aux cyberattaques. Parallèlement, les États-Unis disposent de capacités considérables à la fois en matière de défense et de projection de puissance offensive, grâce à une technologie relativement avancée et à un budget militaire important. La cyberguerre représente une menace croissante pour les systèmes physiques et les infrastructures qui sont liés à Internet. Le piratage malveillant provenant d'ennemis nationaux ou étrangers reste une menace constante pour les États-Unis. En réponse à ces menaces croissantes, les États-Unis ont développé des capacités cybernétiques significatives.
### Query ###
Est-ce que les attaques cybernétiques vont continuer à s'intensifier avec le temps, ou est-ce que les États vont finir par réussir à mettre un frein à tout ça ?

### Main Text ###
History

Since the Internet 's arrival and with the digital transformation initiated in recent years, the notion of cybersecurity has become a familiar subject in both our professional and personal lives. Cybersecurity and cyber threats have been consistently present for the last 60 years of technological change. In the 1970s and 1980s, computer security was mainly limited to academia until the conception of the Internet, where, with increased connectivity, computer viruses and network intrusions began to take off. After the spread of viruses in the 1990s, the 2000s marked the institutionalization of organized attacks such as distributed denial of service. This led to the formalization of cybersecurity as a professional discipline.

The April 1967 session organized by Willis Ware at the Spring Joint Computer Conference, and the later publication of the Ware Report, were foundational moments in the history of the field of computer security. Ware's work straddled the intersection of material, cultural, political, and social concerns.

A 1977 NIST publication introduced the CIA triad of confidentiality, integrity, and availability as a clear and simple way to describe key security goals. While still relevant, many more elaborate frameworks have since been proposed.

However, in the 1970s and 1980s, there were no grave computer threats because computers and the internet were still developing, and security threats were easily identifiable. More often, threats came from malicious insiders who gained unauthorized access to sensitive documents and files. Although malware and network breaches existed during the early years, they did not use them for financial gain. By the second half of the 1970s, established computer firms like IBM started offering commercial access control systems and computer security software products.

One of the earliest examples of an attack on a computer network was the computer worm Creeper written by Bob Thomas at BBN, which propagated through the ARPANET in 1971. The program was purely experimental in nature and carried no malicious payload. A later program, Reaper, was created by Ray Tomlinson in 1972 and used to destroy Creeper.

Between September 1986 and June 1987, a group of German hackers performed the first documented case of cyber espionage. The group hacked into American defense contractors, universities, and military base networks and sold gathered information to the Soviet KGB. The group was led by Markus Hess, who was arrested on 29 June 1987. He was convicted of espionage (along with two co-conspirators) on 15 Feb 1990.

In 1988, one of the first computer worms, called the Morris worm, was distributed via the Internet. It gained significant mainstream media attention.

In 1993, Netscape started developing the protocol SSL, shortly after the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) launched Mosaic 1.0, the first web browser, in 1993. Netscape had SSL version 1.0 ready in 1994, but it was never released to the public due to many serious security vulnerabilities. These weaknesses included replay attacks and a vulnerability that allowed hackers to alter unencrypted communications sent by users. However, in February 1995, Netscape launched Version 2.0.

The National Security Agency (NSA) is responsible for the protection of U.S. information systems and also for collecting foreign intelligence. The agency analyzes commonly used software and system configurations to find security flaws, which it can use for offensive purposes against competitors of the United States.

NSA contractors created and sold click-and-shoot attack tools to US agencies and close allies, but eventually, the tools made their way to foreign adversaries. In 2016, NSAs own hacking tools were hacked, and they have been used by Russia and North Korea. NSA's employees and contractors have been recruited at high salaries by adversaries, anxious to compete in cyberwarfare. In 2007, the United States and Israel began exploiting security flaws in the Microsoft Windows operating system to attack and damage equipment used in Iran to refine nuclear materials. Iran responded by heavily investing in their own cyberwarfare capability, which it began using against the United States.

### Supplementary Text ###
La cyberguerre est l'utilisation de la technologie informatique pour perturber les activités d'un État ou d'une organisation, en particulier l'attaque délibérée de systèmes d'information à des fins stratégiques ou militaires. En tant qu'économie développée majeure, les États-Unis sont fortement dépendants d'Internet et donc fortement exposés aux cyberattaques. Parallèlement, les États-Unis disposent de capacités considérables à la fois en matière de défense et de projection de puissance offensive, grâce à une technologie relativement avancée et à un budget militaire important. La cyberguerre représente une menace croissante pour les systèmes physiques et les infrastructures qui sont liés à Internet. Le piratage malveillant provenant d'ennemis nationaux ou étrangers reste une menace constante pour les États-Unis. En réponse à ces menaces croissantes, les États-Unis ont développé des capacités cybernétiques significatives.

### Draft ###

### 1. Query Decomposition

"Est-ce que les attaques cybernétiques vont continuer à s'intensifier avec le temps" → escalation trajectory question.

"ou est-ce que les États vont finir par réussir à mettre un frein à tout ça" → state control vs. cyber arms race dynamics.

Core tension: technological acceleration vs. institutional adaptation.

### 2. Historical Pattern Recognition

Need temporal data on attack sophistication, frequency, impact.

● 1970s: isolated incidents, academic focus
● 1980s: first major attacks (Morris worm, German espionage)  
● 1990s: commercial exploitation begins
● 2000s: organized crime, state-sponsored actors
● 2010s+: infrastructure-level attacks, geopolitical cyberwar

→ Exponential growth pattern evident

Key inflection points:
- Internet mass adoption (1990s)
- Commercial motivation emergence  
- State cyber capabilities development
- IoT proliferation (2010s+)

### 3. Constraint Analysis

Physical/Economic Constraints:
- Cybersecurity investment arms race dynamics
- Talent shortage vs. demand
- Infrastructure interdependence increases vulnerability surface

State Control Factors:
- International treaty enforcement difficulties
- Attribution challenges 
- Economic retaliation mechanisms
- Defensive technology development lag

### 4. Pattern Matching

Historical precedents for escalation vs. containment:

**Arms Race Patterns:**
- Nuclear proliferation (1945-1960s) → eventual treaties
- Space race → détente
- Chemical weapons → international bans

**Technological Diffusion Patterns:**
- Printing press → democratization of information
- Firearms → state regulation
- Aviation → international airspace control

? Key question: Does cybersecurity follow containment model or diffusion model?

### 5. Synthesis

Evidence suggests:
● Attacks will intensify (historical trajectory + new attack surfaces)
◐ State efforts will increase but insufficient for containment  
○ Complete state control unlikely (attribution/enforcement issues)

∴ Hybrid outcome: managed escalation rather than resolution

**Factors favoring intensification:**
- Economic incentives (ransomware, espionage)
- Technological democratization  
- State-sponsored actor proliferation
- Infrastructure digitization acceleration

**Factors limiting total escalation:**
- Mutual vulnerability deterrence
- Economic interdependence costs
- International frameworks (UN, treaties)

⟨H≈0.8⟩ The question assumes binary outcome but reality is spectrum... like asking whether all roads become highways or all highways become dirt roads... some lanes merge, some diverge, but overall traffic complexity increases...

### 6. Conclusion Framework

Response should emphasize:
1. Historical intensification trend (not linear)
2. State efforts increasing but insufficient
3. Arms race dynamics vs. containment efforts  
4. Technological acceleration outpaces institutional response
5. Managed escalation rather than resolution

≈ 70% probability of continued intensification
≈ 20% probability of significant state control
≈ 10% probability of status quo resolution

NB: Answer acknowledges complexity, provides historical context, identifies key dynamics without oversimplifying geopolitical realities.

### Answer###
Cette question touche à l'une des tensions les plus importantes de notre époque : l'évolution des capacités technologiques face aux efforts de régulation étatique.

Historiquement, les cyberattaques se sont considérablement intensifiées et sophistiquées au fil du temps. Les années 1970 et 1980 ont marqué les débuts avec des programmes expérimentaux et quelques intrusions, mais les années 1990 ont introduit les premiers virus massifs. Les années 2000 ont vu l'émergence d'attaques organisées et ciblées, notamment les cyberespionnages et les attaques de grande envergure.

Plusieurs facteurs suggèrent que cette tendance à l'intensification se poursuivra. D'abord, l'interdépendance croissante des États et des organisations avec les technologies numériques augmente considérablement leur vulnérabilité. Les cyberattaques deviennent ainsi un outil stratégique majeur pour les acteurs étatiques et non étatiques.

Les États développent effectivement des capacités cybernétiques substantielles pour se défendre et projeter leur puissance. Cependant, cette évolution technologique s'accompagne d'une course aux armements où les capacités offensives se développent souvent parallèlement aux défensives. L'exemple des outils de cyberattaques créés par les agences gouvernementales et revendus, puis récupérés par des adversaires étrangers, illustre cette dynamique.

La question du contrôle étatique sur les cyberattaques reste complexe. Les cybercapacités peuvent être utilisées pour des intérêts stratégiques ou militaires, et leur nature rend les réponses traditionnelles aux menaces conventionnelles inadaptées. De plus, la prolifération des cybercapacités chez les acteurs étatiques et non étatiques complique les efforts de régulation internationale.

Cette situation crée une tension où les moyens d'attaque se développent plus rapidement que les mécanismes de contrôle, suggérant que l'intensification des cyberattaques plutôt que leur éradication caractérisera probablement l'avenir de cette confrontation technologique et géopolitique.