Comment pourrait-on prédire que les descendants des Afghans qui s'étaient enfuis vers le sous-continent indien à la suite des invasions mongoles du XIIIe siècle retourneraient pour restaurer complètement l'empire Hindu Shahi et la culture hindoue d'avant-islamisation dans la région ?
Islamisation and Mongol invasion

The Islamic conquest reached modern-day Afghanistan in 642 AD, at a time when Kabul was independent. Until then, Kabul was considered politically and culturally part of the Indian world. A number of failed expeditions were made to Islamise the region. In one of them, Abdur Rahman bin Samara arrived in Kabul from Zaranj in the late 600s and converted 12,000 inhabitants to Islam before abandoning the city. Muslims were a minority until Ya'qub bin Laith as-Saffar of Zaranj conquered Kabul in 870 from the Hindu Shahis and established the first Islamic dynasty in the region. It was reported that the rulers of Kabul were Muslims with non-Muslims living close by. Iranian traveller and geographer Istakhri described it in 921:

Kábul has a castle celebrated for its strength, accessible only by one road. In it there are Musulmáns, and it has a town, in which are infidels from Hind.

Over the following centuries, the city was successively controlled by the Samanids, Ghaznavids, Ghurids, Khwarazmshahs, Qarlughids, and Khaljis. In the 13th century, the invading Mongols caused major destruction in the region. Report of a massacre in the close by Bamiyan is recorded around this period, where the entire population of the valley was annihilated by the Mongol troops as revenge for the death of Genghis Khan's grandson. As a result, many natives of Afghanistan fled south toward the Indian subcontinent where some established dynasties in Delhi. The Chagatai Khanate and Kartids were vassals of Ilkhanate until the dissolution of the latter in 1335.

Following the era of the Khalji dynasty in 1333, the famous Moroccan scholar Ibn Battuta was visiting Kabul and wrote:

We travelled on to Kabul, formerly a vast town, the site of which is now occupied by a village inhabited by a tribe of Persians called Afghans. They hold mountains and defiles and possess considerable strength, and are mostly highwaymen. Their principal mountain is called Kuh Sulayman.
Les Shahis hindous (c. 820–1030 CE)

Au IXe siècle, la dynastie des Shahis hindous, originaire de la région d'Oddiyana, a remplacé le royaume des Taank, gouvernant le Pendjab occidental ainsi que l'Afghanistan oriental. La tribu des Gakhars / Khokhars formait une grande partie de l'armée des Shahis, selon l'historien persan Firishta. Les souverains les plus notables de l'empire furent Lalliya, Bhimadeva et Jayapala, qui ont été reconnus pour leurs victoires militaires.

Lalliya avait repris le territoire autour de Kaboul entre 879 et 901 CE après l'avoir perdu au profit de la dynastie saffaride sous son prédécesseur. Il était décrit comme un Shahi redoutable. Deux de ses ministres, reconstitués par Rahman comme Toramana et Asata, auraient profité de la préoccupation d'Amr al-Layth face aux rébellions en Khorasan pour piller Ghazna avec succès vers 900 CE.

Après une défaite en Afghanistan oriental subie par l'allié shahi Lawik, Bhimadeva a lancé une attaque combinée vers 963 CE. Abu Ishaq Ibrahim a été expulsé de Ghazna et les bastions Shahi-Lawik ont été restaurés à Kaboul et dans les régions avoisinantes. Cette victoire semble avoir été commémorée dans l'inscription de la dalle de Hund (HSI).
### Query ###
Comment pourrait-on prédire que les descendants des Afghans qui s'étaient enfuis vers le sous-continent indien à la suite des invasions mongoles du XIIIe siècle retourneraient pour restaurer complètement l'empire Hindu Shahi et la culture hindoue d'avant-islamisation dans la région ?

### Main Text ###
Islamisation and Mongol invasion

The Islamic conquest reached modern-day Afghanistan in 642 AD, at a time when Kabul was independent. Until then, Kabul was considered politically and culturally part of the Indian world. A number of failed expeditions were made to Islamise the region. In one of them, Abdur Rahman bin Samara arrived in Kabul from Zaranj in the late 600s and converted 12,000 inhabitants to Islam before abandoning the city. Muslims were a minority until Ya'qub bin Laith as-Saffar of Zaranj conquered Kabul in 870 from the Hindu Shahis and established the first Islamic dynasty in the region. It was reported that the rulers of Kabul were Muslims with non-Muslims living close by. Iranian traveller and geographer Istakhri described it in 921:

Kábul has a castle celebrated for its strength, accessible only by one road. In it there are Musulmáns, and it has a town, in which are infidels from Hind.

Over the following centuries, the city was successively controlled by the Samanids, Ghaznavids, Ghurids, Khwarazmshahs, Qarlughids, and Khaljis. In the 13th century, the invading Mongols caused major destruction in the region. Report of a massacre in the close by Bamiyan is recorded around this period, where the entire population of the valley was annihilated by the Mongol troops as revenge for the death of Genghis Khan's grandson. As a result, many natives of Afghanistan fled south toward the Indian subcontinent where some established dynasties in Delhi. The Chagatai Khanate and Kartids were vassals of Ilkhanate until the dissolution of the latter in 1335.

Following the era of the Khalji dynasty in 1333, the famous Moroccan scholar Ibn Battuta was visiting Kabul and wrote:

We travelled on to Kabul, formerly a vast town, the site of which is now occupied by a village inhabited by a tribe of Persians called Afghans. They hold mountains and defiles and possess considerable strength, and are mostly highwaymen. Their principal mountain is called Kuh Sulayman.

### Supplementary Text ###
Les Shahis hindous (c. 820–1030 CE)

Au IXe siècle, la dynastie des Shahis hindous, originaire de la région d'Oddiyana, a remplacé le royaume des Taank, gouvernant le Pendjab occidental ainsi que l'Afghanistan oriental. La tribu des Gakhars / Khokhars formait une grande partie de l'armée des Shahis, selon l'historien persan Firishta. Les souverains les plus notables de l'empire furent Lalliya, Bhimadeva et Jayapala, qui ont été reconnus pour leurs victoires militaires.

Lalliya avait repris le territoire autour de Kaboul entre 879 et 901 CE après l'avoir perdu au profit de la dynastie saffaride sous son prédécesseur. Il était décrit comme un Shahi redoutable. Deux de ses ministres, reconstitués par Rahman comme Toramana et Asata, auraient profité de la préoccupation d'Amr al-Layth face aux rébellions en Khorasan pour piller Ghazna avec succès vers 900 CE.

Après une défaite en Afghanistan oriental subie par l'allié shahi Lawik, Bhimadeva a lancé une attaque combinée vers 963 CE. Abu Ishaq Ibrahim a été expulsé de Ghazna et les bastions Shahi-Lawik ont été restaurés à Kaboul et dans les régions avoisinantes. Cette victoire semble avoir été commémorée dans l'inscription de la dalle de Hund (HSI).

### Draft ###

### 1. Query Deconstruction

"Comment pourrait-on prédire..." → How could one predict...

Key semantic challenge: "complètement restaurer" (complete restoration) vs historical reality. User seeks predictive framework for impossible historical outcome.

Query breaks down:
- Descendants of Afghan refugees → XIIIe century Mongol invasions
- Return migration → restoration of Hindu Shahi
- "Complete" de-islamization of region

⚠ Impossible prediction request. Historical counterfactual requiring:
- Demographic data (non-existent)
- Cultural retention rates (unknowable)
- Political organization capacity (speculative)

### 2. Historical Context Verification

● XIIIe century: Mongol invasions 1221-1231 CE
● Hindu Shahi Empire: 820-1030 CE, Kapisa-Ghazni region
◐ Afghan migration patterns: some to Indian subcontinent confirmed
○ Return migration rates: minimal documented evidence

Critical constraint: Hindu Shahi already defeated by Ghaznavids (1001 CE) before Mongol invasions. So "restoration" = not rebuilding fallen empire but creating entirely new one.

### 3. Logical Impossibility Analysis

Required conditions for prediction:
├─ Sufficient population retention in exile (Afghanistan)
├─ Cultural transmission across generations (India)
├─ Organized return movement
└─ Political vacuum enabling restoration

Physical constraints:
- XIIIe century communication/transport → minimal organized migration
- Islamic conversion already advanced → "de-islamization" = centuries of reversal
- Geographic barriers → Hindu Kush as obstacle

∴ Prediction framework impossible without:
- Demographic data (lost)
- Cultural continuity evidence (sparse)
- Political organization capacity (speculative)

### 4. Predictive Framework Requirements

For any prediction model:
1. Need baseline population estimates (unavailable)
2. Need cultural retention metrics (unknowable)
3. Need political organization capacity assessment (speculative)

⟨H≈0.8⟩ *Could imagine* some computational approach: phylogenetic analysis of cultural practices, demographic modeling of refugee settlement patterns, political network analysis of resistance movements... But each step requires data that simply doesn't exist. Like trying to predict quantum collapse without wavefunction.

### 5. Response Strategy

Acknowledge historical complexity
→ Explain prediction impossibility
→ Contextualize Hindu Shahi legacy
→ Note cultural persistence patterns (limited)
→ Conclude with epistemological constraint

※ Key insight: User seeks prediction methodology for historical counterfactual. Methodological question disguised as factual prediction.

Response should emphasize:
- Data insufficiency for prediction
- Cultural complexity of de-islamization
- Epistemological limits of historical counterfactuals

∴ Answer requires methodological skepticism rather than historical detail.

### Answer###
Cette question soulève des considérations historiques complexes sur la capacité de prédiction des événements politiques et culturels. Les descendants des Afghans qui ont fui vers le sous-continent indien suite aux invasions mongoles du XIIIe siècle ont effectivement joué un rôle dans les développements ultérieurs de la région.

Historiquement, les migrations et les échanges culturels entre l'Afghanistan et l'Inde ont été récurrents. L'empire Hindu Shahi lui-même avait déjà démontré une capacité à se reconstituer face aux pressions extérieures, comme illustré par la reprise de Kaboul par Lalliya vers 879-901 après une période de contrôle saffaride, et la restauration des bastions Shahi-Lawik à Kaboul et dans les régions avoisinantes suite à la victoire de Bhimadeva contre les forces islamiques en 963.

Cependant, la prédiction d'un retour complet des descendants de ces réfugiés pour restaurer l'empire Hindu Shahi et dé-islamiser complètement la région nécessiterait une analyse complexe des facteurs démographiques, culturels et politiques. Les Afghans mentionnés par Ibn Battuta en 1333, vivant dans des tribus comme les Afghans Kuh Sulayman et décrits comme des pillards, suggèrent que les populations afghanes ont maintenu une identité distincte et une capacité d'organisation politique qui aurait pu influencer les développements futurs.

La question de la restauration culturelle et politique est particulièrement complexe, nécessitant des données sur les taux de rétention culturelle, les capacités d'organisation politique des diasporas, et les conditions géopolitiques favorables.