Qu'aurait-il pu arriver à la politique britannique si Peel avait maintenu sa position conservatrice plutôt que d'abolir les lois sur le blé en 1846 ?
Memory and recognition

In his lifetime many critics called him a traitor to the Tory cause, or as "a Liberal wolf in sheep's clothing", because his final position reflected liberal ideas. Others idealised Peel in heroic terms; Thomas Carlyle referred to him as a "reforming Hercules" in Latter-Day Pamphlets (1850).

The latter would become the consensus view of scholars for much of the 20th century. Historian Boyd Hilton wrote that he was portrayed as:

The great Conservative patriot: a pragmatic gradualist, as superb in his grasp of fundamental issues as he was adroit in handling administrative detail, intelligent enough to see through abstract theories, a conciliator who put nation before party and established consensus politics.

Biographer Norman Gash wrote that Peel "looked first, not to party, but to the state; not to programmes, but to national expediency". Gash added that among his personal qualities were, "administrative skill, capacity for work, personal integrity, high standards, a sense of duty an outstanding intellect".

Gash emphasised the role of personality in Peel's political career:

Peel was endowed with great intelligence and integrity, and an immense capacity for hard work. A proud, stubborn, and quick-tempered man he had a passion for creative achievement; and the latter part of his life was dominated by his deep concern for the social condition of the country. Though his great debating and administrative talents secured him an outstanding position in Parliament, his abnormal sensitivity and coldness of manner debarred him from popularity among his political followers, except for the small circle of his intimate friends. As an administrator he was one of the greatest public servants in British history; in politics he was a principal architect of the modern conservative tradition. By insisting on changes unpalatable to many of his party, he helped to preserve the flexibility of the parliamentary system and the survival of aristocratic influence. The repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846 won him immense prestige in the country, and his death in 1850 caused a national demonstration of sorrow unprecedented since the death of William Pitt in 1806.

Peel was the first British Prime Minister to have been photographed while in office. Peel is featured on the cover of The Beatles ' Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band album.

A 2021 study in The Economic Journal found that the repeal of the corn laws adversely affected the welfare of the top 10% of income earners in Britain, whereas the bottom 90% of income earners gained.

A student association of the University of Glasgow, the Peel Club was founded in 1836 and named after Peel (who was a patron of the organisation). It later became the Glasgow University Conservative Association.
Lois sur le blé

L'acte le plus notable du second ministère de Peel, cependant, fut celui qui le ferait chuter. Peel s'opposa aux propriétaires terriens en abrogeant les Lois sur le blé, qui soutenaient les revenus agricoles en restreignant les importations de céréales. Cette rupture radicale avec le protectionnisme conservateur fut déclenchée par la Grande Famine irlandaise (1845-1849). Les agriculteurs tory étaient sceptiques quant à l'ampleur du problème, et Peel réagit lentement face à la famine, déclarant tristement en octobre 1846 (déjà dans l'opposition) : « Il y a une telle tendance à l'exagération et à l'inexactitude dans les rapports irlandais que tout retard dans l'action basée sur eux est toujours souhaitable ».

Son propre parti n'a pas soutenu le projet de loi, mais il a été adopté avec le soutien des Whigs et des Radicaux. Lors du troisième examen du projet de loi de Peel sur l'abrogation (Importation Act 1846) le 15 mai, les députés ont voté 327 voix contre 229 (une majorité de 98) pour abroger les Lois sur le blé. Le 25 juin, le duc de Wellington a convaincu la Chambre des lords de l'adopter. La même nuit, le projet de loi irlandais de répression de Peel a été défait à la Chambre des communes par 292 voix contre 219, grâce à « une combinaison de Whigs, de Radicaux et de protectionnistes tory ». Suite à cela, le 29 juin 1846, Peel a démissionné de son poste de Premier ministre.
### Query ###
Qu'aurait-il pu arriver à la politique britannique si Peel avait maintenu sa position conservatrice plutôt que d'abolir les lois sur le blé en 1846 ?

### Main Text ###
Memory and recognition

In his lifetime many critics called him a traitor to the Tory cause, or as "a Liberal wolf in sheep's clothing", because his final position reflected liberal ideas. Others idealised Peel in heroic terms; Thomas Carlyle referred to him as a "reforming Hercules" in Latter-Day Pamphlets (1850).

The latter would become the consensus view of scholars for much of the 20th century. Historian Boyd Hilton wrote that he was portrayed as:

The great Conservative patriot: a pragmatic gradualist, as superb in his grasp of fundamental issues as he was adroit in handling administrative detail, intelligent enough to see through abstract theories, a conciliator who put nation before party and established consensus politics.

Biographer Norman Gash wrote that Peel "looked first, not to party, but to the state; not to programmes, but to national expediency". Gash added that among his personal qualities were, "administrative skill, capacity for work, personal integrity, high standards, a sense of duty an outstanding intellect".

Gash emphasised the role of personality in Peel's political career:

Peel was endowed with great intelligence and integrity, and an immense capacity for hard work. A proud, stubborn, and quick-tempered man he had a passion for creative achievement; and the latter part of his life was dominated by his deep concern for the social condition of the country. Though his great debating and administrative talents secured him an outstanding position in Parliament, his abnormal sensitivity and coldness of manner debarred him from popularity among his political followers, except for the small circle of his intimate friends. As an administrator he was one of the greatest public servants in British history; in politics he was a principal architect of the modern conservative tradition. By insisting on changes unpalatable to many of his party, he helped to preserve the flexibility of the parliamentary system and the survival of aristocratic influence. The repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846 won him immense prestige in the country, and his death in 1850 caused a national demonstration of sorrow unprecedented since the death of William Pitt in 1806.

Peel was the first British Prime Minister to have been photographed while in office. Peel is featured on the cover of The Beatles ' Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band album.

A 2021 study in The Economic Journal found that the repeal of the corn laws adversely affected the welfare of the top 10% of income earners in Britain, whereas the bottom 90% of income earners gained.

A student association of the University of Glasgow, the Peel Club was founded in 1836 and named after Peel (who was a patron of the organisation). It later became the Glasgow University Conservative Association.

### Supplementary Text ###
Lois sur le blé

L'acte le plus notable du second ministère de Peel, cependant, fut celui qui le ferait chuter. Peel s'opposa aux propriétaires terriens en abrogeant les Lois sur le blé, qui soutenaient les revenus agricoles en restreignant les importations de céréales. Cette rupture radicale avec le protectionnisme conservateur fut déclenchée par la Grande Famine irlandaise (1845-1849). Les agriculteurs tory étaient sceptiques quant à l'ampleur du problème, et Peel réagit lentement face à la famine, déclarant tristement en octobre 1846 (déjà dans l'opposition) : « Il y a une telle tendance à l'exagération et à l'inexactitude dans les rapports irlandais que tout retard dans l'action basée sur eux est toujours souhaitable ».

Son propre parti n'a pas soutenu le projet de loi, mais il a été adopté avec le soutien des Whigs et des Radicaux. Lors du troisième examen du projet de loi de Peel sur l'abrogation (Importation Act 1846) le 15 mai, les députés ont voté 327 voix contre 229 (une majorité de 98) pour abroger les Lois sur le blé. Le 25 juin, le duc de Wellington a convaincu la Chambre des lords de l'adopter. La même nuit, le projet de loi irlandais de répression de Peel a été défait à la Chambre des communes par 292 voix contre 219, grâce à « une combinaison de Whigs, de Radicaux et de protectionnistes tory ». Suite à cela, le 29 juin 1846, Peel a démissionné de son poste de Premier ministre.

### Draft ###

### 1. Query Decomposition

"Qu'aurait-il pu arriver..." → counterfactual speculation about alternative British politics.

Key elements to isolate:
- Peel maintaining conservative positions (not liberalizing)  
- No 1846 Corn Law repeal
- "la politique britannique" → broad institutional impacts
- "1846" → timing crucial, post-Irish Famine pressures

Translation nuance: "conservatrice" here = traditional Tory protectionism, not modern conservatism.

### 2. Contextual Grounding ●

Robert Peel 1846 context:
→ Second ministry, 1841-1846
→ Irish Potato Famine peak years  
→ Protectionist Corn Laws dating from 1791
→ Party split over free trade vs protectionism

Physical constraint: Corn Laws = agricultural tariffs protecting domestic grain prices. Repeal 1846 = market liberalization.

※ Key insight: Peel's actual position wasn't purely conservative - he was pragmatic reformer within Tory framework.

### 3. Counterfactual Analysis

**Without Corn Law repeal 1846:**

#### 3.1 Political Fragmentation
Peel's Tory base already strained by Irish Famine response. Maintaining protectionism → deeper split with free-trade wing.

Likely outcome: ◐
- Tory party permanent schism
- Protectionist Tories forming opposition faction
- Peel possibly leading moderate wing

#### 3.2 Economic Trajectory  
No market liberalization → different industrial development path:

⟨H≈0.8⟩ *Free trade orthodoxy suggests repeal necessary for British comparative advantage... but counterfactual economics always slippery. Protectionism might have sustained agricultural interests longer, but would British industry have achieved same global competitiveness? Manchester cotton mills still needed raw materials, capital flows. Without Corn Law removal, would we have seen earlier adoption of Zollverein-style customs union?*

#### 3.3 Ireland Amplification
Critical factor: Irish Famine continuing without tariff relief.
→ No cheap grain imports = prolonged starvation
→ Political pressure on government intensified  
→ Irish nationalism potentially accelerated

⚠ Speculative but: Could have pushed Ireland toward earlier independence movement?

### 4. Institutional Implications ◐

**Parliamentary dynamics:**
- Stronger protectionist lobby in Commons
- Different party alignments in 1850s+
- Peel's legacy: would he have dominated 1850s politics without the repeal "heroic" status?

**Economic development:**  
- Slower industrial revolution timeline?
- Different British comparative advantage
- Agricultural interests politically stronger

### 5. Uncertainty Acknowledgment ○

Fundamental limitation: Can't precisely model counterfactual without:
- Specific alternative policies Peel would adopt
- How other European powers would respond  
- Economic feedback effects across decades

∴ Answer must emphasize speculative nature, conditional scenarios.

### 6. Synthesis

**Core thesis:** Corn Law retention would have fractured Tory party, altered Peel's political trajectory, potentially delayed British free trade adoption, intensified Irish pressure, and created different parliamentary dynamics.

**But:** ○ High uncertainty about precise outcomes. Counterfactuals inherently limited by incomplete information about alternative decision trees.

**Key caveat:** Economic and political systems don't exist in vacuums. Peel's decision interconnected with global trends, European competition, technological change.

Final answer should emphasize conditional nature of speculation while outlining plausible scenario branches.

### Answer###
Cette question soulève un scénario spéculatif fascinant sur l'évolution de la politique britannique. Robert Peel avait déjà démontré une approche pragmatique et réformatrice au sein du parti conservateur, s'opposant aux propriétaires terriens et aux intérêts protectionnistes traditionnels.

Le maintien des Lois sur le blé aurait probablement approfondi la division au sein du parti conservateur, qui avait déjà manifesté des réticences importantes face à l'approche de Peel. Cette position aurait pu conduire à une scission plus marquée entre les conservateurs protectionnistes traditionnels et une faction plus réformatrice.

Politiquement, cela aurait vraisemblablement renforcé l'influence des intérêts agricoles et du lobby protectionniste au sein du parti. L'absence d'une telle rupture avec le conservatisme traditionnel aurait pu modifier les dynamiques de coalition parlementaire et retarder l'adoption d'une approche plus libérale dans l'économie britannique.

Cependant, il faut noter que Peel avait déjà gagné une immense prestige dans le pays par la répélation des Corn Laws, et cette popularité avait contribué à son influence durable. Sans cet acte, son héritage politique et sa capacité à rassembler différents courants au sein du parti conservateur auraient pu être différents.

Cette question reste néanmoins hautement spéculative, car elle dépend de nombreux facteurs politiques, économiques et sociaux de l'époque qui restent difficiles à anticiper rétrospectivement.