Je me demandais si l'augmentation du soutien populaire de Henriette Reker entre 2015 et 2020 était significative.
Mayor

The incumbent Lord Mayor of Cologne is Henriette Reker. She received 52.66% of the vote at the municipal election on 17 October 2015, running as an independent with the support of the CDU, FDP, and Greens. She took office on 15 December 2015. Reker was re-elected to a second term in a runoff election on 27 September 2020, in which she received 59.27% of the vote.

The most recent mayoral election was held on 13 September 2020, with a runoff held on 27 September, and the results were as follows:
Compétitivité des élections

Une étude de 2020 de la NBER, examinant des données issues de référendums suisses, a révélé qu'une prise de conscience de la part de l'électorat quant à la proximité d'une élection augmentait la participation. En contrôlant les effets cantonaux et les effets fixes du vote, l'étude a conclu que « une couverture médiatique plus importante par les journaux cantonaux concernant les sondages serrés augmente significativement la participation des électeurs ».
### Query ###
Je me demandais si l'augmentation du soutien populaire de Henriette Reker entre 2015 et 2020 était significative.

### Main Text ###
Mayor

The incumbent Lord Mayor of Cologne is Henriette Reker. She received 52.66% of the vote at the municipal election on 17 October 2015, running as an independent with the support of the CDU, FDP, and Greens. She took office on 15 December 2015. Reker was re-elected to a second term in a runoff election on 27 September 2020, in which she received 59.27% of the vote.

The most recent mayoral election was held on 13 September 2020, with a runoff held on 27 September, and the results were as follows:

### Supplementary Text ###
Compétitivité des élections

Une étude de 2020 de la NBER, examinant des données issues de référendums suisses, a révélé qu'une prise de conscience de la part de l'électorat quant à la proximité d'une élection augmentait la participation. En contrôlant les effets cantonaux et les effets fixes du vote, l'étude a conclu que « une couverture médiatique plus importante par les journaux cantonaux concernant les sondages serrés augmente significativement la participation des électeurs ».

### Draft ###

### 1. Query Parsing

"Je me demandais si l'augmentation du soutien populaire de Henriette Reker entre 2015 et 2020 était significative"

→ "I was wondering if the increase in popular support for Henriette Reker between 2015 and 2020 was significant"

Key semantic elements:
- "soutien populaire" = popular support/vote share
- "significative" = statistically significant (not just noticeable)
- Temporal frame: 2015→2020
- Geographic: Cologne, Germany
- Political context: mayoral elections

### 2. Information Retrieval Assessment

Simple retrieval? No. Multi-hop required:
- Election results data from 2015/2020 ●
- Statistical significance testing ○
- German electoral context ◐
- Political dynamics in Cologne ◐

### 3. Data Triangulation

Known data points:
- 2015 election: Reker vs. other candidates
- 2020 re-election: likely against different opponents
- Vote share percentages needed for comparison

? Key question: Do I have access to raw vote totals or just percentages?

### 4. Memory Activation - Henriette Reker

⟨H≈0.2⟩ Reker, independent candidate, former judge, Cologne mayor since 2015, controversial figure, knife attack during 2015 campaign, CDU backing, immigrant integration policies, right-wing opposition...

※ Come back to: attack incident timing vs. election

### 5. Statistical Framework

For significance testing need:
- Sample sizes (total votes 2015/2020)
- Standard errors
- Confidence intervals
- Null hypothesis: no real increase vs. alternative: meaningful increase

⚠ Missing: specific statistical software/formulas

### 6. Data State Assessment

◐ Partial data available:
- 2015 result: ~52.7% (close to majority)
- 2020 result: ~59.3% 
- 5-year span
- CDU support mentioned

○ Low confidence on:
- Other candidates' performance
- Turnout rates
- Demographic shifts
- Economic factors

### 7. Logical Constraints

Physical realism check:
- 6.6 percentage point increase over 5 years ≈ modest
- Still short of 60% threshold
- German electoral system specifics unknown
- Local vs. national political climate variations

### 8. Synthesis Challenge

Multi-dimensional interpretation required:
- Statistical significance (lacks formal testing)
- Contextual factors (attack, CDU backing, local policies)
- Comparative analysis (Germany-wide trends?)
- Causality vs. correlation

### 9. Information Limitations

Critical gaps:
- No access to polling data
- Missing voter demographics
- Unknown margin of error
- No baseline comparison group

∴ Conclusion must acknowledge uncertainty

### 10. Response Framework

Structure needed:
1. Acknowledge partial data ●
2. Provide available figures ●  
3. Highlight statistical limitations ○
4. Contextual factors ◐
5. Uncertainty admission ●

⟨H≈0.8⟩ The numbers dance but tell incomplete stories... 52.7→59.3 percent, six percentage points, statistically... but what of the shadows? The knife incident, the CDU lifeline, the integration debates, the voters who shifted and those who stayed...

### 11. Final Assessment

Complex retrieval task requiring:
- Data synthesis ○
- Statistical reasoning ○  
- Contextual interpretation ◐
- Uncertainty quantification ●

Response should emphasize:
- Available figures presentation
- Statistical methodology limitations
- Multiple contextual factors
- Honest uncertainty acknowledgment

✓ Framework established for response construction

### Answer###
L'augmentation du soutien populaire de Henriette Reker entre 2015 et 2020 apparaît effectivement substantielle. Lors de son élection en 2015, elle a obtenu 52,66% des voix en tant qu'indépendante soutenue par la CDU, le FDP et les Verts. Cinq ans plus tard, lors de sa réélection en 2020, elle a recueilli 59,27% des voix au second tour, soit une augmentation de 6,61 points de pourcentage.

Cette progression de près de six points représente une amélioration significative de sa position électorale, passant d'une victoire relativement serrée à une réélection plus confortable. Cependant, il est difficile de déterminer avec précision si cette augmentation est statistiquement significative sans disposer des marges d'erreur et des données sur la participation électorale de ces deux scrutins.

Plusieurs facteurs pourraient expliquer cette évolution : une meilleure connaissance de l'électorat suite à son premier mandat, les résultats de ses politiques publiques, ou les dynamiques politiques locales spécifiques à Cologne durant cette période.