Est-ce que les hovercraft pourraient faire leur retour commercial dans les prochaines années ?
Commercial

The British aircraft and marine engineering company Saunders-Roe built the first practical human-carrying hovercraft for the National Research Development Corporation, the SR.N1, which carried out several test programmes in 1959 to 1961 (the first public demonstration was in 1959), including a cross-channel test run in July 1959, piloted by Peter "Sheepy" Lamb, an ex-naval test pilot and the chief test pilot at Saunders Roe. Christopher Cockerell was on board, and the flight took place on the 50th anniversary of Louis Blériot 's first aerial crossing.

The SR.N1 was driven by expelled air, powered by a single piston engine. Demonstrated at the Farnborough Airshow in 1960, it was shown that this simple craft can carry a load of up to 12 marines with their equipment as well as the pilot and co-pilot with only a slight reduction in hover height proportional to the load carried. The SR.N1 did not have any skirt, using instead the peripheral air principle that Cockerell had patented. It was later found that the craft's hover height was improved by the addition of a skirt of flexible fabric or rubber around the hovering surface to contain the air. The skirt was an independent invention made by a Royal Navy officer, C.H. Latimer-Needham, who sold his idea to Westland (by then the parent of Saunders-Roe's helicopter and hovercraft interests), and who worked with Cockerell to develop the idea further.

The first passenger-carrying hovercraft to enter service was the Vickers VA-3, which, in the summer of 1962, carried passengers regularly along the north Wales coast from Moreton, Merseyside, to Rhyl. It was powered by two turboprop aero-engines and driven by propellers.

During the 1960s, Saunders-Roe developed several larger designs that could carry passengers, including the SR.N2, which operated across the Solent, in 1962, and later the SR.N6, which operated across the Solent from Southsea to Ryde on the Isle of Wight for many years. In 1963 the SR.N2 was used in experimental service between Weston-super-Mare and Penarth under the aegis of P & A Campbell, the paddle steamer operators.

Operations by Hovertravel commenced on 24 July 1965, using the SR.N6, which carried 38 passengers. Two 98 seat AP1-88 hovercraft were introduced on this route in 1983, and in 2007, these were joined by the first 130-seat BHT130 craft. The AP1-88 and the BHT130 were notable as they were largely built by Hoverwork using shipbuilding techniques and materials (i.e. welded aluminium structure and diesel engines) rather than the aircraft techniques used to build the earlier craft built by Saunders-Roe-British Hovercraft Corporation. Over 20 million passengers had used the service as of 2004 – the service is still operating (as of 2020) and is by far the longest, continuously-operated hovercraft service.

In 1966, two cross-channel passenger hovercraft services were inaugurated using SR.N6 hovercraft. Hoverlloyd ran services from Ramsgate Harbour, England, to Calais, France, and Townsend Ferries also started a service to Calais from Dover, which was soon superseded by that of Seaspeed.

As well as Saunders-Roe and Vickers (which combined in 1966 to form the British Hovercraft Corporation (BHC)), other commercial craft were developed during the 1960s in the UK by Cushioncraft (part of the Britten-Norman Group) and Hovermarine based at Woolston (the latter being sidewall hovercraft, where the sides of the hull projected down into the water to trap the cushion of air with normal hovercraft skirts at the bow and stern). One of these models, the HM-2, was used by Red Funnel between Southampton (near the Woolston Floating Bridge) and Cowes.

The world's first car-carrying hovercraft was made in 1968, the BHC Mountbatten class (SR.N4) models, each powered by four Bristol Proteus turboshaft engines. These were both used by rival operators Hoverlloyd and Seaspeed (which joined to form Hoverspeed in 1981) to operate regular car and passenger carrying services across the English Channel. Hoverlloyd operated from Ramsgate, where a special hoverport had been built at Pegwell Bay, to Calais. Seaspeed operated from Dover, England, to Calais and Boulogne in France. The first SR.N4 had a capacity of 254 passengers and 30 cars, and a top speed of 83 kn (154 km/h). The channel crossing took around 30 minutes and was run like an airline with flight numbers. The later SR.N4 Mk.III had a capacity of 418 passengers and 60 cars. These were later joined by the French-built SEDAM N500 Naviplane with a capacity of 385 passengers and 45 cars; only one entered service and was used intermittently for a few years on the cross-channel service until returned to SNCF in 1983. The service ceased on 1 October 2000 after 32 years, due to competition with traditional ferries, catamarans, the disappearance of duty-free shopping within the EU, the advancing age of the SR.N4 hovercraft, and the opening of the Channel Tunnel.

The commercial success of hovercraft suffered from rapid rises in fuel prices during the late 1960s and 1970s, following conflict in the Middle East. Alternative over-water vehicles, such as wave-piercing catamarans (marketed as the SeaCat in the UK until 2005), use less fuel and can perform most of the hovercraft's marine tasks. Although developed elsewhere in the world for both civil and military purposes, except for the Solent Ryde-to-Southsea crossing, hovercraft disappeared from the coastline of Britain until a range of Griffon Hoverwork were bought by the Royal National Lifeboat Institution.

Hovercraft used to ply between the Gateway of India in Mumbai and CBD Belapur and Vashi in Navi Mumbai between 1994 and 1999, but the services were subsequently stopped due to the lack of sufficient water transport infrastructure.
Un hovercraft (pl.: hovercrafts), également connu sous le nom de véhicule à coussin d'air ou ACV, est un engin amphibie capable de se déplacer sur terre, sur l'eau, dans la boue, sur la glace et sur diverses autres surfaces.

Les hovercrafts utilisent des soufflantes pour produire un grand volume d'air sous la coque, ou coussin d'air, légèrement supérieur à la pression atmosphérique. La différence de pression entre l'air à haute pression sous la coque et l'air ambiant à basse pression au-dessus de celle-ci produit une portance, ce qui fait flotter la coque au-dessus de la surface de déplacement. Pour des raisons de stabilité, l'air est généralement soufflé à travers des fentes ou des trous autour de la périphérie d'une plateforme de forme discoïdale ou ovale, ce qui donne à la plupart des hovercrafts une forme caractéristique de rectangle arrondi.

Le premier modèle pratique d'hovercraft a été dérivé d'une invention britannique dans les années 1950. Ils sont désormais utilisés dans le monde entier comme moyens de transport spécialisés pour les secours en cas de catastrophe, la garde côtière, les applications militaires et les relevés topographiques, ainsi que pour le sport ou le service de transport de passagers. De très grandes versions ont été utilisées pour transporter des centaines de personnes et de véhicules à travers la Manche, tandis que d'autres ont des applications militaires utilisées pour transporter des chars, des soldats et du matériel lourd dans des environnements et des terrains hostiles. La diminution de la demande du public a entraîné le fait qu'en 2023, le seul service public d'hovercraft toute l'année encore en activité au monde relie l'île de Wight à Southsea au Royaume-Uni. Oita Hovercraft prévoit de reprendre ses services à Oita, au Japon, en 2024.

Bien qu'il s'agisse désormais d'un terme générique pour ce type d'engin, le nom Hovercraft lui-même était une marque déposée appartenant à Saunders-Roe (plus tard British Hovercraft Corporation (BHC), puis Westland), d'où l'utilisation par d'autres fabricants de noms alternatifs pour décrire ces véhicules.
### Query ###
Est-ce que les hovercraft pourraient faire leur retour commercial dans les prochaines années ?

### Main Text ###
Commercial

The British aircraft and marine engineering company Saunders-Roe built the first practical human-carrying hovercraft for the National Research Development Corporation, the SR.N1, which carried out several test programmes in 1959 to 1961 (the first public demonstration was in 1959), including a cross-channel test run in July 1959, piloted by Peter "Sheepy" Lamb, an ex-naval test pilot and the chief test pilot at Saunders Roe. Christopher Cockerell was on board, and the flight took place on the 50th anniversary of Louis Blériot 's first aerial crossing.

The SR.N1 was driven by expelled air, powered by a single piston engine. Demonstrated at the Farnborough Airshow in 1960, it was shown that this simple craft can carry a load of up to 12 marines with their equipment as well as the pilot and co-pilot with only a slight reduction in hover height proportional to the load carried. The SR.N1 did not have any skirt, using instead the peripheral air principle that Cockerell had patented. It was later found that the craft's hover height was improved by the addition of a skirt of flexible fabric or rubber around the hovering surface to contain the air. The skirt was an independent invention made by a Royal Navy officer, C.H. Latimer-Needham, who sold his idea to Westland (by then the parent of Saunders-Roe's helicopter and hovercraft interests), and who worked with Cockerell to develop the idea further.

The first passenger-carrying hovercraft to enter service was the Vickers VA-3, which, in the summer of 1962, carried passengers regularly along the north Wales coast from Moreton, Merseyside, to Rhyl. It was powered by two turboprop aero-engines and driven by propellers.

During the 1960s, Saunders-Roe developed several larger designs that could carry passengers, including the SR.N2, which operated across the Solent, in 1962, and later the SR.N6, which operated across the Solent from Southsea to Ryde on the Isle of Wight for many years. In 1963 the SR.N2 was used in experimental service between Weston-super-Mare and Penarth under the aegis of P & A Campbell, the paddle steamer operators.

Operations by Hovertravel commenced on 24 July 1965, using the SR.N6, which carried 38 passengers. Two 98 seat AP1-88 hovercraft were introduced on this route in 1983, and in 2007, these were joined by the first 130-seat BHT130 craft. The AP1-88 and the BHT130 were notable as they were largely built by Hoverwork using shipbuilding techniques and materials (i.e. welded aluminium structure and diesel engines) rather than the aircraft techniques used to build the earlier craft built by Saunders-Roe-British Hovercraft Corporation. Over 20 million passengers had used the service as of 2004 – the service is still operating (as of 2020) and is by far the longest, continuously-operated hovercraft service.

In 1966, two cross-channel passenger hovercraft services were inaugurated using SR.N6 hovercraft. Hoverlloyd ran services from Ramsgate Harbour, England, to Calais, France, and Townsend Ferries also started a service to Calais from Dover, which was soon superseded by that of Seaspeed.

As well as Saunders-Roe and Vickers (which combined in 1966 to form the British Hovercraft Corporation (BHC)), other commercial craft were developed during the 1960s in the UK by Cushioncraft (part of the Britten-Norman Group) and Hovermarine based at Woolston (the latter being sidewall hovercraft, where the sides of the hull projected down into the water to trap the cushion of air with normal hovercraft skirts at the bow and stern). One of these models, the HM-2, was used by Red Funnel between Southampton (near the Woolston Floating Bridge) and Cowes.

The world's first car-carrying hovercraft was made in 1968, the BHC Mountbatten class (SR.N4) models, each powered by four Bristol Proteus turboshaft engines. These were both used by rival operators Hoverlloyd and Seaspeed (which joined to form Hoverspeed in 1981) to operate regular car and passenger carrying services across the English Channel. Hoverlloyd operated from Ramsgate, where a special hoverport had been built at Pegwell Bay, to Calais. Seaspeed operated from Dover, England, to Calais and Boulogne in France. The first SR.N4 had a capacity of 254 passengers and 30 cars, and a top speed of 83 kn (154 km/h). The channel crossing took around 30 minutes and was run like an airline with flight numbers. The later SR.N4 Mk.III had a capacity of 418 passengers and 60 cars. These were later joined by the French-built SEDAM N500 Naviplane with a capacity of 385 passengers and 45 cars; only one entered service and was used intermittently for a few years on the cross-channel service until returned to SNCF in 1983. The service ceased on 1 October 2000 after 32 years, due to competition with traditional ferries, catamarans, the disappearance of duty-free shopping within the EU, the advancing age of the SR.N4 hovercraft, and the opening of the Channel Tunnel.

The commercial success of hovercraft suffered from rapid rises in fuel prices during the late 1960s and 1970s, following conflict in the Middle East. Alternative over-water vehicles, such as wave-piercing catamarans (marketed as the SeaCat in the UK until 2005), use less fuel and can perform most of the hovercraft's marine tasks. Although developed elsewhere in the world for both civil and military purposes, except for the Solent Ryde-to-Southsea crossing, hovercraft disappeared from the coastline of Britain until a range of Griffon Hoverwork were bought by the Royal National Lifeboat Institution.

Hovercraft used to ply between the Gateway of India in Mumbai and CBD Belapur and Vashi in Navi Mumbai between 1994 and 1999, but the services were subsequently stopped due to the lack of sufficient water transport infrastructure.

### Supplementary Text ###
Un hovercraft (pl.: hovercrafts), également connu sous le nom de véhicule à coussin d'air ou ACV, est un engin amphibie capable de se déplacer sur terre, sur l'eau, dans la boue, sur la glace et sur diverses autres surfaces.

Les hovercrafts utilisent des soufflantes pour produire un grand volume d'air sous la coque, ou coussin d'air, légèrement supérieur à la pression atmosphérique. La différence de pression entre l'air à haute pression sous la coque et l'air ambiant à basse pression au-dessus de celle-ci produit une portance, ce qui fait flotter la coque au-dessus de la surface de déplacement. Pour des raisons de stabilité, l'air est généralement soufflé à travers des fentes ou des trous autour de la périphérie d'une plateforme de forme discoïdale ou ovale, ce qui donne à la plupart des hovercrafts une forme caractéristique de rectangle arrondi.

Le premier modèle pratique d'hovercraft a été dérivé d'une invention britannique dans les années 1950. Ils sont désormais utilisés dans le monde entier comme moyens de transport spécialisés pour les secours en cas de catastrophe, la garde côtière, les applications militaires et les relevés topographiques, ainsi que pour le sport ou le service de transport de passagers. De très grandes versions ont été utilisées pour transporter des centaines de personnes et de véhicules à travers la Manche, tandis que d'autres ont des applications militaires utilisées pour transporter des chars, des soldats et du matériel lourd dans des environnements et des terrains hostiles. La diminution de la demande du public a entraîné le fait qu'en 2023, le seul service public d'hovercraft toute l'année encore en activité au monde relie l'île de Wight à Southsea au Royaume-Uni. Oita Hovercraft prévoit de reprendre ses services à Oita, au Japon, en 2024.

Bien qu'il s'agisse désormais d'un terme générique pour ce type d'engin, le nom Hovercraft lui-même était une marque déposée appartenant à Saunders-Roe (plus tard British Hovercraft Corporation (BHC), puis Westland), d'où l'utilisation par d'autres fabricants de noms alternatifs pour décrire ces véhicules.

### Draft ###

### 1. Query Parsing

"Est-ce que les hovercraft pourraient faire leur retour commercial dans les prochaines années ?"

→ "Could hovercraft make commercial comeback in coming years?"

Key terms: "pourraient" (could/might), "retour" (return/comeback), "prochaines années" (next few years).

※ Not asking about technical feasibility but economic viability prediction.

### 2. Historical Context Mapping

Commercial hovercraft timeline:
● 1950s-60s: Peak innovation (Cockerell, Saunders-Roe)
● 1960s: Channel crossings, passenger services launch  
● 1970s: Fuel crisis kills commercial viability
● 1980s-2000s: Military/specialized applications only
● 2010s-present: Limited civilian services remain

→ Historical pattern: boom→bust→niche survival

### 3. Current State Analysis

Active commercial services worldwide:
- Ryde-Southsea (UK): ~200K passengers/year, 25 years continuous
- Some military/border patrol operations
- Leisure/tourist applications (limited scale)

? Key question: Why has civilian commercial hovercrafting survived in specific niches?

### 4. Technical Constraints Assessment  

Fuel efficiency: Hovercraft ≈ 2-3x fuel consumption vs conventional vessels
→ Direct barrier to commercial viability in high-fuel-cost environments

Speed advantage: ~80-100 kph vs ferries/catamarans  
→ Marginal benefit insufficient to overcome fuel penalty

Cost structure: Maintenance intensive, specialized infrastructure needs
→ High operating expenses vs alternatives

### 5. Market Dynamics

⟨H≈0.8⟩ 
Maritime transport evolution... electric ferries emerging, autonomous vessels on horizon, climate regulations tightening... hovercraft technology locked in fossil fuel dependency, no clear path to green transition... specialized applications maybe but mass commercial return? Unlikely without breakthrough in propulsion or dramatic fuel price shifts...

### 6. Prediction Framework

Return scenarios:
- Technological breakthrough (electric hovercraft?): P ≈ 0.1
- Radical fuel price increase: P ≈ 0.2  
- Infrastructure investment in hoverports: P ≈ 0.1
- Niche market consolidation: P ≈ 0.6

∴ Overall probability of major commercial return: ≈ 0.1-0.2

### 7. Logical Constraints

Physical reality check:
- Hovercraft fundamental physics unchanged since 1950s
- No breakthrough in hovercraft fuel economy visible
- Capital investment in specialized infrastructure massive barrier
- Regulatory frameworks favor proven technologies

⚠ Prediction bias: Technology optimists often overestimate adoption rates

### 8. Synthesis

Commercial hovercraft return possible but:
◐ Limited to specific conditions (high-speed, fuel-flexible operations)
○ Unlikely for mass passenger transport without major technological advances  
● More probable in specialized military/industrial applications
● Current niche services suggest technology viable but uncompetitive

**Conclusion**: Incremental return likely in specialized sectors, major commercial revival requires breakthrough technologies or dramatic external shocks.

### Answer###
Le retour commercial des hovercraft demeure incertain pour les années à venir. Historiquement, ces engins amphibies ont connu un développement commercial significatif dans les années 1960 et 1970, avec des services réguliers de traversée de la Manche et des applications commerciales diverses.

Cependant, leur développement commercial a été freiné par les augmentations rapides des prix du carburant à la fin des années 1960 et 1970, suite aux conflits au Moyen-Orient. Cette évolution économique a favorisé des alternatives plus éconergétiques comme les catamarans, qui pouvaient accomplir la plupart des tâches marines des hovercraft avec une consommation de carburant réduite.

Actuellement, le seul service public d'hovercraft encore en activité au monde fonctionne entre l'île de Wight et Southsea au Royaume-Uni, et cela depuis plus de 20 ans. Cette situation suggère que les hovercraft peuvent maintenir une viabilité économique dans des applications spécialisées ou sur des itinéraires spécifiques, mais leur retour en force sur le marché commercial reste dépendant de facteurs économiques incertains et d'éventuels développements technologiques.