Je travaille sur une étude sur les défis économiques des Philippines et je me demande quelles étaient les causes principales de la crise économique.
Independence (1946–present)

Efforts at post-war reconstruction and ending the Hukbalahap Rebellion succeeded during Ramon Magsaysay 's presidency, but sporadic communist insurgency continued to flare up long afterward. Under Magsaysay's successor, Carlos P. Garcia, the government initiated a Filipino First policy which promoted Filipino-owned businesses. Succeeding Garcia, Diosdado Macapagal moved Independence Day from July 4 to June 12—the date of Emilio Aguinaldo's declaration— and pursued a claim on eastern North Borneo.

In 1965, Macapagal lost the presidential election to Ferdinand Marcos. Early in his presidency, Marcos began infrastructure projects funded mostly by foreign loans; this improved the economy, and contributed to his reelection in 1969. Near the end of his last constitutionally-permitted term, Marcos declared martial law on September 21, 1972 using the specter of communism and began to rule by decree; the period was characterized by political repression, censorship, and human rights violations. Monopolies controlled by Marcos' cronies were established in key industries, including logging and broadcasting; a sugar monopoly led to a famine on the island of Negros. With his wife, Imelda, Marcos was accused of corruption and embezzling billions of dollars of public funds. Marcos' heavy borrowing early in his presidency resulted in economic crashes, exacerbated by an early 1980s recession where the economy contracted by 7.3 percent annually in 1984 and 1985.

On August 21, 1983, opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr. (Marcos' chief rival) was assassinated on the tarmac at Manila International Airport. Marcos called a snap presidential election in 1986 which proclaimed him the winner, but the results were widely regarded as fraudulent. The resulting protests led to the People Power Revolution, which forced Marcos and his allies to flee to Hawaii. Aquino's widow, Corazon, was installed as president.

The return of democracy and government reforms which began in 1986 were hampered by national debt, government corruption, and coup attempts. A communist insurgency and military conflict with Moro separatists persisted; the administration also faced a series of disasters, including the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991. Aquino was succeeded by Fidel V. Ramos, who liberalized the national economy with privatization and deregulation. Ramos' economic gains were overshadowed by the onset of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. His successor, Joseph Estrada, prioritized public housing but faced corruption allegations which led to his overthrow by the 2001 EDSA Revolution and the succession of Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on January 20, 2001. Arroyo's nine-year administration was marked by economic growth, but was tainted by corruption and political scandals, including electoral fraud allegations during the 2004 presidential election. Economic growth continued during Benigno Aquino III 's administration, which advocated good governance and transparency. Aquino III signed a peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) resulting in the Bangsamoro Organic Law establishing an autonomous Bangsamoro region, but a shootout with MILF rebels in Mamasapano delayed passage of the law.

Rodrigo Duterte, elected president in 2016, launched an infrastructure program and an anti-drug campaign which reduced drug proliferation but has also led to extrajudicial killings. The Bangsamoro Organic Law was enacted in 2018. In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic reached the Philippines; its gross domestic product shrank by 9.5 percent, the country's worst annual economic performance since 1947. Marcos' son, Bongbong Marcos, won the 2022 presidential election; Duterte's daughter, Sara, became vice president.
L'effondrement économique des années 1980

Les dépenses de l'administration Marcos reposaient fortement sur l'endettement depuis le premier mandat de Marcos dans les années 1960. Cela a rendu les Philippines vulnérables lorsque la forte inflation a poussé les États-Unis à augmenter leurs taux d'intérêt de 1980 à 1982, ce qui a entraîné des récessions aux États-Unis en 1980 et à nouveau au troisième trimestre de 1981. L'économie philippine a également commencé à décliner en 1981, poursuivant cette tendance jusqu'au moment de l'assassinat de Benigno Aquino Jr. en 1983. L'instabilité économique et politique combinée a produit la pire récession de l'histoire des Philippines en 1984 et 1985, avec une contraction de l'économie de 7,3 % pendant deux années consécutives et un taux de pauvreté de 49 % ou presque la moitié de la population philippine.
### Query ###
Je travaille sur une étude sur les défis économiques des Philippines et je me demande quelles étaient les causes principales de la crise économique.

### Main Text ###
Independence (1946–present)

Efforts at post-war reconstruction and ending the Hukbalahap Rebellion succeeded during Ramon Magsaysay 's presidency, but sporadic communist insurgency continued to flare up long afterward. Under Magsaysay's successor, Carlos P. Garcia, the government initiated a Filipino First policy which promoted Filipino-owned businesses. Succeeding Garcia, Diosdado Macapagal moved Independence Day from July 4 to June 12—the date of Emilio Aguinaldo's declaration— and pursued a claim on eastern North Borneo.

In 1965, Macapagal lost the presidential election to Ferdinand Marcos. Early in his presidency, Marcos began infrastructure projects funded mostly by foreign loans; this improved the economy, and contributed to his reelection in 1969. Near the end of his last constitutionally-permitted term, Marcos declared martial law on September 21, 1972 using the specter of communism and began to rule by decree; the period was characterized by political repression, censorship, and human rights violations. Monopolies controlled by Marcos' cronies were established in key industries, including logging and broadcasting; a sugar monopoly led to a famine on the island of Negros. With his wife, Imelda, Marcos was accused of corruption and embezzling billions of dollars of public funds. Marcos' heavy borrowing early in his presidency resulted in economic crashes, exacerbated by an early 1980s recession where the economy contracted by 7.3 percent annually in 1984 and 1985.

On August 21, 1983, opposition leader Benigno Aquino Jr. (Marcos' chief rival) was assassinated on the tarmac at Manila International Airport. Marcos called a snap presidential election in 1986 which proclaimed him the winner, but the results were widely regarded as fraudulent. The resulting protests led to the People Power Revolution, which forced Marcos and his allies to flee to Hawaii. Aquino's widow, Corazon, was installed as president.

The return of democracy and government reforms which began in 1986 were hampered by national debt, government corruption, and coup attempts. A communist insurgency and military conflict with Moro separatists persisted; the administration also faced a series of disasters, including the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991. Aquino was succeeded by Fidel V. Ramos, who liberalized the national economy with privatization and deregulation. Ramos' economic gains were overshadowed by the onset of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. His successor, Joseph Estrada, prioritized public housing but faced corruption allegations which led to his overthrow by the 2001 EDSA Revolution and the succession of Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on January 20, 2001. Arroyo's nine-year administration was marked by economic growth, but was tainted by corruption and political scandals, including electoral fraud allegations during the 2004 presidential election. Economic growth continued during Benigno Aquino III 's administration, which advocated good governance and transparency. Aquino III signed a peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) resulting in the Bangsamoro Organic Law establishing an autonomous Bangsamoro region, but a shootout with MILF rebels in Mamasapano delayed passage of the law.

Rodrigo Duterte, elected president in 2016, launched an infrastructure program and an anti-drug campaign which reduced drug proliferation but has also led to extrajudicial killings. The Bangsamoro Organic Law was enacted in 2018. In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic reached the Philippines; its gross domestic product shrank by 9.5 percent, the country's worst annual economic performance since 1947. Marcos' son, Bongbong Marcos, won the 2022 presidential election; Duterte's daughter, Sara, became vice president.

### Supplementary Text ###
L'effondrement économique des années 1980

Les dépenses de l'administration Marcos reposaient fortement sur l'endettement depuis le premier mandat de Marcos dans les années 1960. Cela a rendu les Philippines vulnérables lorsque la forte inflation a poussé les États-Unis à augmenter leurs taux d'intérêt de 1980 à 1982, ce qui a entraîné des récessions aux États-Unis en 1980 et à nouveau au troisième trimestre de 1981. L'économie philippine a également commencé à décliner en 1981, poursuivant cette tendance jusqu'au moment de l'assassinat de Benigno Aquino Jr. en 1983. L'instabilité économique et politique combinée a produit la pire récession de l'histoire des Philippines en 1984 et 1985, avec une contraction de l'économie de 7,3 % pendant deux années consécutives et un taux de pauvreté de 49 % ou presque la moitié de la population philippine.

### Draft ###

### 1. Query Decomposition

"Je travaille sur une étude sur les défis économiques des Philippines" → Economic challenges study, Philippines focus.

"causes principales de la crise économique" → Primary causes of economic crisis.

Translation issue: "crise économique" could mean specific crisis (1980s debt crisis?) or general economic difficulties. Context suggests 1980s-90s period.

### 2. Historical Context Mapping

Philippines economic timeline:
- Early Marcos: Infrastructure boom, borrowing (1965-1970s)
- Martial law period: Crony capitalism, debt accumulation  
- Late Marcos: 1984-85 recession, 7.3% contraction ● 
- People Power Revolution: 1986, regime change
- Post-1986: Debt restructuring, democratic transition

### 3. Causal Analysis

**Structural causes:**
→ Heavy borrowing early Marcos period → Vulnerability to external shocks
→ Martial law (1972-1986) → Crony capitalism, monopolization
→ Foreign debt burden → Interest rate sensitivity

**Triggering factors:**
→ 1980-1982 US interest rate hikes → Global recession impact
→ 1981 Philippine economic decline → Debt service difficulties
→ 1983 Aquino assassination → Political instability spiral

**Critical combination:**
Structural vulnerabilities ∩ External shock ∩ Political destabilization

### 4. Quantitative Evidence

1984-1985 GDP contraction: -7.3% annually ●
Poverty rate: ~49% of population ●  
Debt burden: Heavy foreign borrowing from infrastructure programs

### 5. Key Insight Framework

The Philippine economic crisis resulted from:

**Pre-crisis structural setup:**
- Marcos borrowing strategy → Infrastructure development but debt vulnerability
- Martial law system → Crony capitalism, resource misallocation
- External dependence → Global interest rate sensitivity

**Crisis triggers:**
- 1980-82 US monetary tightening → Debt service burden increase
- 1981 economic slowdown → Export declines, capital flight
- 1983 Aquino assassination → Political instability, investor confidence collapse

**Amplifying factors:**
- 1984-85 global recession → External demand contraction
- Debt spiral → Forced austerity measures → Further contraction

**Social consequences:**
- 49% poverty rate ●
- Severe economic contraction ●

∴ Crisis was structural-external-political combination. Not single cause but cascading failures.

**Verification check:** Timeline coherent ✓, percentages align with historical data ●, causal chain logical ✓

NB: Avoid present-tense framing in historical analysis. Use past tense consistently throughout.

### Answer###
La crise économique philippine s'est développée sous la présidence de Ferdinand Marcos, particulièrement à la fin de sa dernière mandature constitutionnelle. Plusieurs facteurs clés ont contribué à cette situation économique difficile.

Les dépenses de l'administration Marcos reposaient fortement sur l'endettement depuis les années 1960. Cette stratégie de financement a rendu les Philippines vulnérables aux chocs externes, notamment lorsque les États-Unis ont augmenté leurs taux d'intérêt de 1980 à 1982. Cette politique monétaire américaine a provoqué des récessions et a eu des effets dévastateurs sur l'économie philippine, qui a commencé à décliner en 1981, poursuivant cette tendance jusqu'en 1983.

L'instauration de la loi martiale en septembre 1972 a permis à Marcos d'établir des monopoles contrôlés par ses cronies dans des secteurs clés comme l'exploitation forestière et les médias. Cette concentration économique a créé des inefficiences et a exacerbé les problèmes structurels.

Les récessions de 1984 et 1985 ont été les pires de l'histoire économique philippine, avec une contraction annuelle de 7,3% pendant ces deux années. Le taux de pauvreté a atteint près de 49% de la population philippine, soit presque la moitié du pays.

L'assassinat de Benigno Aquino Jr. en août 1983 a ajouté une dimension politique instable, créant une combinaison d'instabilité économique et politique qui a précipité la révolution du pouvoir populaire de 1986 et la chute du régime Marcos.