Je lisais sur l histoire du Soudan et je vois qu au début des années 1970 ils ont mis en place une politique agricole basée sur l exportation et la mécanisation Mais ça a créé des problèmes avec les éleveurs traditionnels et finalement ça a contribué à la guerre civile Comment cette politique économique et agricole a elle seule pu provoquer un tel conflit social et politique
Independence (1956–present)

A polling process was carried out resulting in the composition of a democratic parliament and Ismail al-Azhari was elected first Prime Minister and led the first modern Sudanese government. On 1 January 1956, in a special ceremony held at the People's Palace, the Egyptian and British flags were lowered and the new Sudanese flag, composed of green, blue and yellow stripes, was raised in their place by the prime minister Ismail al-Azhari.

Dissatisfaction culminated in a coup d'état on 25 May 1969. The coup leader, Col. Gaafar Nimeiry, became prime minister, and the new regime abolished parliament and outlawed all political parties. Disputes between Marxist and non-Marxist elements within the ruling military coalition resulted in a briefly successful coup in July 1971, led by the Sudanese Communist Party. Several days later, anti-communist military elements restored Nimeiry to power.

In 1972, the Addis Ababa Agreement led to a cessation of the north–south civil war and a degree of self-rule. This led to ten years hiatus in the civil war but an end to American investment in the Jonglei Canal project. This had been considered absolutely essential to irrigate the Upper Nile region and to prevent an environmental catastrophe and wide-scale famine among the local tribes, most especially the Dinka. In the civil war that followed their homeland was raided, looted, pillaged, and burned. Many of the tribe were murdered in a bloody civil war that raged for over 20 years.

Until the early 1970s, Sudan's agricultural output was mostly dedicated to internal consumption. In 1972, the Sudanese government became more pro-Western and made plans to export food and cash crops. However, commodity prices declined throughout the 1970s causing economic problems for Sudan. At the same time, debt servicing costs, from the money spent mechanizing agriculture, rose. In 1978, the IMF negotiated a Structural Adjustment Program with the government. This further promoted the mechanised export agriculture sector. This caused great hardship for the pastoralists of Sudan. In 1976, the Ansars had mounted a bloody but unsuccessful coup attempt. But in July 1977, President Nimeiry met with Ansar leader Sadiq al-Mahdi, opening the way for a possible reconciliation. Hundreds of political prisoners were released, and in August a general amnesty was announced for all oppositionists.
La Seconde Guerre Civile Soudanaise

La Seconde Guerre Civile Soudanaise, de 1983 à 2005, a été décrite comme un conflit ethnoreligieux où la volonté du gouvernement central musulman d'imposer la charia aux Sudistes non-musulmans a mené à la violence, et finalement à la guerre civile. La guerre a abouti à l'indépendance du Soudan du Sud six ans après la fin de la guerre. Le Soudan est majoritairement musulman et le Soudan du Sud est majoritairement chrétien.
### Query ###
Je lisais sur l histoire du Soudan et je vois qu au début des années 1970 ils ont mis en place une politique agricole basée sur l exportation et la mécanisation Mais ça a créé des problèmes avec les éleveurs traditionnels et finalement ça a contribué à la guerre civile Comment cette politique économique et agricole a elle seule pu provoquer un tel conflit social et politique

### Main Text ###
Independence (1956–present)

A polling process was carried out resulting in the composition of a democratic parliament and Ismail al-Azhari was elected first Prime Minister and led the first modern Sudanese government. On 1 January 1956, in a special ceremony held at the People's Palace, the Egyptian and British flags were lowered and the new Sudanese flag, composed of green, blue and yellow stripes, was raised in their place by the prime minister Ismail al-Azhari.

Dissatisfaction culminated in a coup d'état on 25 May 1969. The coup leader, Col. Gaafar Nimeiry, became prime minister, and the new regime abolished parliament and outlawed all political parties. Disputes between Marxist and non-Marxist elements within the ruling military coalition resulted in a briefly successful coup in July 1971, led by the Sudanese Communist Party. Several days later, anti-communist military elements restored Nimeiry to power.

In 1972, the Addis Ababa Agreement led to a cessation of the north–south civil war and a degree of self-rule. This led to ten years hiatus in the civil war but an end to American investment in the Jonglei Canal project. This had been considered absolutely essential to irrigate the Upper Nile region and to prevent an environmental catastrophe and wide-scale famine among the local tribes, most especially the Dinka. In the civil war that followed their homeland was raided, looted, pillaged, and burned. Many of the tribe were murdered in a bloody civil war that raged for over 20 years.

Until the early 1970s, Sudan's agricultural output was mostly dedicated to internal consumption. In 1972, the Sudanese government became more pro-Western and made plans to export food and cash crops. However, commodity prices declined throughout the 1970s causing economic problems for Sudan. At the same time, debt servicing costs, from the money spent mechanizing agriculture, rose. In 1978, the IMF negotiated a Structural Adjustment Program with the government. This further promoted the mechanised export agriculture sector. This caused great hardship for the pastoralists of Sudan. In 1976, the Ansars had mounted a bloody but unsuccessful coup attempt. But in July 1977, President Nimeiry met with Ansar leader Sadiq al-Mahdi, opening the way for a possible reconciliation. Hundreds of political prisoners were released, and in August a general amnesty was announced for all oppositionists.

### Supplementary Text ###
La Seconde Guerre Civile Soudanaise

La Seconde Guerre Civile Soudanaise, de 1983 à 2005, a été décrite comme un conflit ethnoreligieux où la volonté du gouvernement central musulman d'imposer la charia aux Sudistes non-musulmans a mené à la violence, et finalement à la guerre civile. La guerre a abouti à l'indépendance du Soudan du Sud six ans après la fin de la guerre. Le Soudan est majoritairement musulman et le Soudan du Sud est majoritairement chrétien.

### Draft ###

### 1. Query Parsing

"Je vois qu au début des années 1970 ils ont mis en place une politique agricole basée sur l exportation et la mécanisation"

Key elements: ● 1970s agricultural policy, ● export-oriented, ● mechanization, ● traditional breeders problems, ● contributed to civil war.

User seeking: causal mechanism. How economic policy alone → social/political conflict?

### 2. Economic Policy Context

⟨H≈0.2⟩ Sudan 1970s. Nimeiry regime. Post-independence development strategy. Arab oil money era. Modernization theory influence. Agricultural sector crucial - 80% workforce, export potential Blue Nile, White Nile irrigation schemes.

Policy components:
- Export crops (groundnuts, cotton, sorghum)
- Mechanized farming vs. traditional hoe cultivation  
- Large-scale irrigation projects
- Western investment/IMF involvement

### 3. Conflict Genesis

Economic policy → social disruption pathway:

**Land appropriation**: Mechanized schemes required extensive land clearance. Traditional grazing routes severed. ∴ Pastoralist livelihoods destroyed.

**Redistributive effects**: Benefits concentrated:
- Large landowners (mostly Arab/Northern)
- Urban elites
- Foreign investors

Costs distributed:
- Indigenous populations (Dinka, Nuer, other Nilotic peoples)
- Traditional breeders
- Rural communities losing land/livelihoods

### 4. Amplifying Factors

⟨H≈1⟩ Timing crucial. 1970s = drought cycles in Sahel. Climate pressure pushing pastoralists southward into mechanized zones. Policy intervention = zero-sum competition. Traditional knowledge systems vs. industrial agriculture paradigm clash. IMF structural adjustment → deeper commitment to export model.

**Identity politicization**: Economic grievances → ethnic/regional grievances. Northern Arab vs. Southern African identities sharpened.

**State capacity issues**: Sudan limited administrative reach. Forced relocation, land seizures created local resistance networks.

### 5. Escalation Dynamics  

Economic conflict ↔ Political conflict feedback loop:

Policy creates economic losers → organize opposition → political demands → regime repression → armed resistance.

Key transition points:
- 1972: Addis Ababa Agreement signed (temporary peace)
- 1976: Ansar coup attempt (Islamic opposition)
- 1978: IMF structural adjustment (deeper economic liberalization)

⟨H≈0.8⟩ The canal dream. Jonglei. Water flowing north to mechanized fields while Dinka cattle herds watch ancient grazing lands surrender to tractor furrows. Economic logic meets ecological reality. Pastoral nomadism, millennia-old adaptation to African climate, suddenly obsolete in export economy calculus.

### 6. Synthesis

Economic policy created conditions for conflict through:
- **Direct displacement**: Forced relocation of pastoralists
- **Structural exclusion**: Traditional producers marginalized from benefits
- **Identity mobilization**: Economic grievances → ethnic/regional grievances  
- **Regime legitimacy crisis**: Policy unpopular among key constituencies

※ Not policy alone - but economic policy as catalyst converting existing tensions (North-South, Arab-African) into active conflict dynamic.

**Physical constraints help explain escalation**: Limited agricultural land in Sudan. Mechanization = efficiency gains but zero-sum competition for resources. Climate pressures (drought) = external shock amplifying economic competition.

∴ Economic policy provided organizing principle and grievances for conflict. Created winners/losers dynamic that transcended ethnic boundaries initially, then reinforced existing divisions.

⚠ Complex causation. Multiple factors (drought, ethnic identity, religious differences) interacted with economic policy to produce civil war.

### Answer###
Votre question touche effectivement à un mécanisme complexe de la genèse des conflits au Soudan. Les années 1970 ont marqué une transformation radicale de l'agriculture soudanaise, qui jusque-là se concentrait sur la consommation interne. En 1972, le gouvernement soudanais est devenu plus occidentaliste et a planifié l'exportation de cultures alimentaires et commerciales.

Cependant, cette orientation économique a créé des tensions considérables avec les populations traditionnelles. L'adoption de l'agriculture mécanisée intensive, promue par les programmes d'ajustement structurel de 1978 négociés par le FMI, a porté un coup sévère aux éleveurs pastoraux du Soudan. Ces derniers se sont retrouvés confrontés à une modernisation agricole qui leur a fait perdre leurs moyens de subsistance traditionnels.

Parallèlement, les prix des matières premières ont chuté dans les années 1970, créant des problèmes économiques pour le Soudan. Les coûts de service de la dette, dus à l'argent investi dans la mécanisation agricole, ont également augmenté. Cette situation économique difficile a fragilisé le régime et a provoqué des oppositions politiques, culminant en 1976 avec une tentative de coup d'État des Ansar et des accords de réconciliation politique.

Il convient de noter que le conflit avait des dimensions multiples : ethniques, religieuses et économiques. L'Addis Ababa Agreement de 1972, qui avait temporairement mis fin à la guerre civile nord-sud, avait notamment abouti à l'abandon du projet de canal de Jonglei, considéré comme essentiel pour irriguer la région du Haut Nil et éviter une catastrophe environnementale pour les tribus locales, notamment les Dinka.